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A Dynamic Reliability Prognosis Method For Reusable Spacecraft Mission Planning Based On Digital Twin Framework 基于数字孪生框架的可重复使用航天器任务规划动态可靠性预测方法
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063297
B. Gao, Yumei Ye, Xin Pan, Qiang Yang, W. Xie, S. Meng, Y. Huo
Reusable spacecraft has great potential in reducing space launch cost. Structural reliability evaluation is critical for mission planning of reusable spacecraft. A dynamic reliability prognosis method based on digital twin framework is proposed for mission planning in the paper. In this method, Uncertainties integration and dynamic model updating are implemented through a dynamic Bayesian network. A maintenance point is set when the predicted structural reliability level is lower than a threshold or unexpected conditions such as landing impact occur. Then, inspected data can be assimilated by the framework to dynamically update the structural reliability. Thus, it supports dynamic adjustment of maintenance interval, early warning of structure failure, and mission planning with quantified risk. A numerical example considering single point crack growth under fatigue load and landing impact of a simplified spacecraft structure is used for demonstration. Results show that the crack size predictions can be calibrated by inspected data and its uncertainties can be reduced. The proper selection of landing impact probability in reliability prediction is helpful to control the maintenance interval. The reliability of the spacecraft can be increased through model updating with new inspected data, representing a potential lifetime extension can be realized by the proposed method.
可重复使用航天器在降低航天发射成本方面具有巨大的潜力。结构可靠性评估是可重复使用航天器任务规划的关键。提出了一种基于数字孪生框架的任务规划动态可靠性预测方法。该方法通过动态贝叶斯网络实现不确定性集成和动态模型更新。当预测的结构可靠性水平低于阈值或出现着陆撞击等意外情况时,需要设置维修点。然后,框架可以吸收检测数据,动态更新结构的可靠度。因此,它支持维修间隔的动态调整、结构故障的早期预警和风险量化的任务规划。通过考虑航天器简化结构在疲劳载荷和着陆冲击下单点裂纹扩展的数值算例进行了验证。结果表明,该方法可以对裂纹尺寸预测进行校正,减小了预测的不确定性。可靠性预测中着陆撞击概率的合理选择有助于维修间隔的控制。利用新的检验数据进行模型更新可以提高航天器的可靠性,表明该方法可以实现航天器寿命的潜在延长。
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引用次数: 0
Effect Of Assembly Uncertainties On Shock Propagation Through A Bolted Joint Under Impact Loading 装配不确定性对冲击载荷下螺栓连接冲击传播的影响
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063300
Hao Chen, Zhiming Hao
Bolted joints have been widely used in engineering structures because of their advantages of simplicity, economy, and assembly. However, material nonlinearities, interface nonlinearities and uncertainties in the assembly process will lead to the dynamic response to become very complex. This work investigated the effect of assembly uncertainties on shock propagation through a bolted lap joint under impact loading. The object of the study was a bolted lap joint subjected to Separate Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) test. First, a high-fidelity finite element model of the bolted lap joint was developed, the model was validated by comparing with the experimental results. The error between simulation and experimental results prompted the necessary to consider the uncertainty effect. Then, the effects of multiple uncertainties were considered to identify important input random variables related to the impact response of the joint. The results showed that the slip between the connected parts has the most significant effect on energy dissipation and stress wave propagation. Finally, useful conclusions for the design of bolted joints were obtained from the computational results and discussions.
螺栓连接以其简单、经济、易于组装等优点在工程结构中得到了广泛的应用。然而,装配过程中的材料非线性、界面非线性和不确定性将导致动态响应变得非常复杂。本文研究了装配不确定性对冲击载荷下螺栓搭接接头冲击传播的影响。以螺栓搭接接头为研究对象,进行了单独霍普金森压杆(SHPB)试验。首先,建立了螺栓搭接高保真有限元模型,并与试验结果进行了对比验证。仿真结果与实验结果之间的误差提示有必要考虑不确定性效应。然后,考虑多个不确定因素的影响,识别与关节冲击响应相关的重要输入随机变量。结果表明:连接部件之间的滑移对能量耗散和应力波传播的影响最为显著;最后,从计算结果和讨论中得出了对螺栓连接设计有用的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Discussion On Fatigue Reliability Evaluation Method Of Welded Structure Of Carbody Based On Digital Twin 基于数字孪生的车体焊接结构疲劳可靠性评估方法探讨
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063299
Shangchao Zhao, C. Deng, Xiangwei Li, Ji Fang
Taking the key welds of the heavy-duty gondola carbody as the research object, firstly, the fatigue assessment of the carbody is carried out based on the quasi-static the main S-N curve method, and the quasi-static evaluation method is discussed; secondly, the typical welds are selected. based on the full-size bench physical test and virtual test of railway freight carbody, the quasi-static method is discussed; finally, the line test is used to verify the results. The results show that: 1) among all the load conditions in the quasi-static analysis of railway freight cars, the damage of the core plate needs to be considered according to different parts of the carbody, and this condition is effective for the evaluation of the bearing area of the linear load transfer of the carbody. for the welds with nonlinear load transfer such as floor, the stress response caused by core plate load has the problem of over-estimation of damage. 2) the lap weld of floor and beam is less damaged under heavy load, but the stress response is larger in empty state, which indicates that the vibration effect should be considered in the design. 3) the virtual test can make up for the problem of traditional quasi-static analysis. the combination of the two can better realize the fatigue reliability evaluation of carbody.
以重型敞篷车车体关键焊缝为研究对象,首先基于拟静态主S-N曲线法对车体进行了疲劳评估,并对拟静态评估方法进行了探讨;其次,选择典型焊缝。在铁路货运车体全尺寸台架物理试验和虚拟试验的基础上,对拟静态方法进行了探讨;最后,采用直线测试对结果进行验证。结果表明:1)在铁路货车准静力分析的所有载荷工况中,需要根据车体的不同部位考虑核心板的损伤,该工况对于车体线性载荷传递承载面积的评估是有效的。对于楼板等具有非线性荷载传递的焊缝,芯板荷载引起的应力响应存在损伤估计过高的问题。2)楼板与梁搭接焊缝在重载作用下损伤较小,但在空状态下应力响应较大,设计时应考虑振动效应。3)虚拟试验可以弥补传统的准静态分析的不足。两者的结合可以更好地实现车体的疲劳可靠性评价。
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引用次数: 0
Special Section on Uncertainty Quantification & Management in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems in Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering 航空航天与机械工程中非线性动力系统的不确定性量化与管理专题
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063301
Jie Yuan
n/a
N/A
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引用次数: 0
Governing Equation Identification Of Nonlinear Single Degree-Of-Freedom Oscillators With Coulomb Friction Using Explicit Stick And Slip Temporal Constraints 基于显式粘滑时间约束的库仑摩擦非线性单自由度振子控制方程辨识
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063070
S. Mahajan, A. Cicirello
The friction force at joints of engineering structures is usually unknown and not directly identifiable. This contribution explores a procedure for obtaining the governing equation of motion and correctly identifying the unknown Coulomb friction force of a mass-spring-dashpot system. In particular, a Single-Degree-of-Freedom system is investigated both numerically and experimentally. The proposed procedure extends the state-of-the-art data-driven SINDy algorithm by developing a methodology that explicitly imposes constraints encoding knowledge of the non-smooth dynamics experienced during stick-slip phenomena. The proposed algorithm consists of three steps: (i) data segregation of mass-motion from mass-sticking during stick-slip response; (ii) application of SINDy on the mass-motion dataset to obtain the functional form of the governing equation; and (iii) applying sticking and slipping conditions to identify the unknown system parameters. It is shown that the proposed approach yields an improved estimate of the uncertain system parameters such as stiffness, damping, and magnitude of friction force (all mass normalized) for various signal-to-noise ratios compared to SINDy.
工程结构节点处的摩擦力通常是未知的,也不能直接识别。本文探讨了一种获得质量-弹簧-阻尼器系统的运动控制方程和正确识别未知库仑摩擦力的方法。特别对单自由度系统进行了数值和实验研究。提出的程序扩展了最先进的数据驱动SINDy算法,开发了一种明确施加约束的方法,编码了在粘滑现象期间经历的非光滑动力学知识。本文提出的算法包括三个步骤:(1)粘滑响应过程中质量运动和质量粘滞的数据分离;(ii)在质量运动数据集上应用SINDy,得到控制方程的函数形式;(3)应用粘滞滑移条件辨识未知系统参数。结果表明,与SINDy相比,所提出的方法对各种信噪比的不确定系统参数(如刚度、阻尼和摩擦力大小(所有质量归一化))的估计得到了改进。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic Validation: Computational Platform and Application to Fire Pra of Nuclear Power Plants 概率验证:计算平台及其在核电厂火灾风险评估中的应用
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063071
H. Bui, T. Sakurahara, S. Reihani, E. Kee, Z. Mohaghegh
Recently, there has been an increasing use of advanced modeling and simulation in the nuclear domain across academia, industry, and regulatory agencies to improve the realism in capturing complex and highly spatiotemporal phenomena within the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of existing Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Advanced modeling and simulation have also been used to accelerate the risk-informed design, licensing, and operationalization of advanced nuclear reactors. Validation of simulation models traditionally relies on empirical validation approaches which require enough validation data. Such validation data are, however, usually costly to obtain in the contexts of the nuclear industry. To overcome this challenge and to effectively support the use of simulation models in PRA and risk-informed decision-making applications, a systematic and scientifically justifiable validation methodology, namely, the Probabilistic Validation (PV) methodology, has been developed. This methodology leverages uncertainty analysis to support the validity assessment of the simulation prediction. The theoretical foundation and methodological platform of the PV methodology have been reported in the first paper of this two-part series. The purpose of this second paper is to computationalize the PV methodology, embedded in an Integrated PRA framework, and apply it for a hierarchical fire simulation model used in NPP Fire PRA.
最近,学术界、工业界和监管机构越来越多地在核领域使用先进的建模和仿真技术,以提高现有核电站(NPPs)概率风险评估(PRA)中捕获复杂和高度时空现象的真实感。先进的建模和仿真也被用于加速先进核反应堆的风险知情设计、许可和运行。仿真模型的验证传统上依赖于经验验证方法,需要足够的验证数据。然而,在核工业的背景下,这种验证数据通常是昂贵的。为了克服这一挑战并有效支持在PRA和风险知情决策应用中使用仿真模型,开发了一种系统且科学合理的验证方法,即概率验证(PV)方法。该方法利用不确定性分析来支持模拟预测的有效性评估。PV方法的理论基础和方法平台已在本系列的第一篇文章中报道。第二篇论文的目的是计算PV方法,嵌入到集成PRA框架中,并将其应用于核电厂火灾PRA中使用的分层火灾模拟模型。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis For The Self-Excited Vibration Of A Spline-Shafting System 花键轴系自激振动的不确定性量化及灵敏度分析
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063069
X. Ma, Yucai Zhong, P. Cao, Jie-Hong Yuan, Zhenguo Zhang
Self-excited vibrations can occur in the spline-shafting system due to internal friction of the tooth surface. However, due to manufacturing errors, design tolerances, and time-varying factors, the parameters that induce self-excited vibrations are always uncertain. This study provides new insights into the uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of a spline-shaft system suffering from self-excited vibrations. The non-intrusive generalised polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) with unknown deterministic coefficients is used to represent the propagation of uncertainties in the rotor dynamics, which allows rapid estimation of the statistics of the non-linear responses. Furthermore, the global sensitivity analysis of the stochastic self-excited vibration response of the rotor system with probabilistic uncertain parameters is evaluated by Sobol indices. The relative influence of different random parameters on the vibration behavior and initial displacement conditions for the occurrence of self-excited vibration is investigated. The accuracy of the adopted method based on the gPCE metamodel is validated by conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, the effects of parameter uncertainties considering random distribution characteristics on the stochastic vibration characteristics of the rotor system are discussed, which demonstrates the need to consider input uncertainties in analysis and design to ensure robust system performance.
由于齿面内摩擦,在花键轴系中可发生自激振动。然而,由于制造误差、设计公差和时变因素,引起自激振动的参数总是不确定的。该研究为花键轴系统自激振动的不确定度量化和灵敏度分析提供了新的见解。采用具有未知确定性系数的非侵入式广义多项式混沌展开(gPCE)来表示转子动力学中的不确定性传播,从而可以快速估计非线性响应的统计量。此外,利用Sobol指标对具有概率不确定参数的转子系统随机自激振动响应进行了全局灵敏度分析。研究了不同随机参数对振动特性和产生自激振动的初始位移条件的相对影响。通过传统的蒙特卡罗仿真(MCS)验证了基于gPCE元模型的方法的准确性。最后,讨论了考虑随机分布特性的参数不确定性对转子系统随机振动特性的影响,说明在分析和设计中需要考虑输入不确定性,以保证系统的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation Of Power Transmission Lines Hardening Scenarios Using A Machine Learning Approach 使用机器学习方法评估输电线路硬化场景
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-24 DOI: 10.1115/1.4063012
Juan Montoya Rincon, Jorge González, M. P. Jensen
The power transmission infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events, particularly hurricanes and tropical storms. A recent example is the damage caused by Hurricane Maria (H-Maria) in the archipelago of Puerto Rico in September 2017, where major failures in the transmission infrastructure led to a total blackout. Numerous studies have been conducted to examine strategies to strengthen the transmission system, including burying the power lines underground or increasing the frequency of tree trimming. However, few studies focus on the direct hardening of the transmission towers to accomplish an increase in resiliency. This machine learning-based study fills this need by analyzing three direct hardening scenarios and determining the effectiveness of these changes in the context of H-Maria. A methodology for estimating transmission tower damage is presented here as well as an analysis of impact of replacing structures with a high failure rate with more resilient ones. We found the steel self-support-pole to be the best replacement option for the towers with high failure rate. Furthermore, the third hardening scenario, where all wooden poles were replaced, exhibited a maximum reduction in damaged towers in a single line of 66% while lowering the mean number of damaged towers per line by 10%.
输电基础设施容易受到极端天气事件的影响,特别是飓风和热带风暴。最近的一个例子是2017年9月飓风玛丽亚(H-Maria)在波多黎各群岛造成的破坏,当时输电基础设施的重大故障导致了全面停电。已经进行了大量的研究来检查加强输电系统的策略,包括将电线埋在地下或增加修剪树木的频率。然而,很少有研究集中在输电塔的直接硬化,以实现弹性的增加。这项基于机器学习的研究通过分析三种直接硬化情景,并确定这些变化在H-Maria环境中的有效性,填补了这一需求。本文提出了一种估计输电塔损坏的方法,并分析了用更有弹性的结构替换高故障率结构的影响。对故障率高的高塔,钢支撑杆是最好的替代方案。此外,在第三种硬化方案中,所有木杆都被替换,单线受损塔的数量最大减少了66%,而每条线的平均受损塔数量减少了10%。
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引用次数: 1
From Reliability-Based Design to Resilience-Based Design 从基于可靠性的设计到基于弹性的设计
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1115/1.4062997
Cao Wang, B. Ayyub, M. Beer
Reliability-based design has been a widely used methodology in the design of engineering structures. For example, the structural design standards in many countries have adopted the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method. In recent years, the concept of resilience-based design has emerged, which also takes into account the post-hazard functionality loss and recovery process of a structure. Under this context, the following questions naturally arise: can we establish a linkage between reliability-based design and resilience-based design? Does there exist a simple resilience-based design criterion that takes a similar form of LRFD? This paper addresses these questions, and the answer is “quot”. To this end, a new concept of structural resilience capacity is proposed, which is a generalization of structural load bearing capacity (resistance). The probabilistic characteristics (mean value, variance, probability distribution function) of resilience capacity are derived. Applying the concept of resilience capacity, this paper explicitly shows the relationship between the following four items: time-invariant reliability-, time-invariant resilience-, time-dependent reliability-, and time-dependent resilience-based design methods. Furthermore, an LRFD-like design criterion is proposed for structural resilience-based design, namely load and resilience capacity factor design (LRCFD), whose applicability is demonstrated through an example. The LRCFD method can also be used, in conjunction with LRFD, to achieve reliability and resilience goals simultaneously of the designed structure.
基于可靠度的设计是工程结构设计中广泛采用的一种方法。例如,许多国家的结构设计标准都采用了荷载和阻力因子设计(LRFD)方法。近年来,基于弹性的设计概念出现了,它也考虑了结构的灾后功能损失和恢复过程。在这种背景下,以下问题自然产生:我们能否在基于可靠性的设计和基于弹性的设计之间建立联系?是否存在一种简单的基于弹性的设计标准,采用与LRFD类似的形式?本文对这些问题进行了探讨,答案是“”。为此,提出了结构弹性能力的新概念,即结构承载能力(阻力)的概括。推导了恢复能力的概率特征(均值、方差、概率分布函数)。本文运用弹性能力的概念,明确展示了时变可靠性、时变弹性、时变可靠性和时变弹性设计方法之间的关系。在此基础上,提出了一种类似lrfd的结构弹性设计准则,即荷载与弹性容量因子设计(LRCFD),并通过算例验证了其适用性。LRCFD方法也可以与LRFD结合使用,同时实现设计结构的可靠性和弹性目标。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial: Community Resilience to Disruptive Events: Models and Analyses, Lessons Learned and Case Studies 社论:社区对破坏性事件的恢复力:模型和分析,经验教训和案例研究
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-20 DOI: 10.1115/1.4062982
Cao Wang, M. Faes, Michael Beer, E. Zio, J. W. van de Lindt
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引用次数: 0
期刊
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering
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