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Multi-Objective Optimization of Tree Trunk Axes in Glulam Beam Design Considering Fuzzy Probability-Based Random Fields 基于模糊概率随机场的胶合木梁树干轴线多目标优化
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4050370
F. N. Schietzold, W. Graf, M. Kaliske
Deterministic design and a priori parameters are used in traditional optimization approaches. The material characteristics of solid wood are not deterministic in reality. Hence, realistic optimization and simulation methods need to take the uncertainties of parameters into account. The uncertainty characteristics of wood are mainly originated in natural variation. In addition to this, incertitudes from lack of knowledge are inherent. Accordingly, the aleatoric approach of randomness can be expanded to a polymorphic uncertainty model. Fuzzy probability-based randomness is used in this work. Therefore, the epistemic approach of fuzziness is taken into account. The distribution functions of random variables are parametrized by fuzzy variables. So coupling of both, aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, is involved. Interactions of fuzzy variables and crosscorrelations of random variables are considered among and within the parameters. Crosscorrelated random fields are used to represent spatial variation of material parameters. The autocovariance structures are modeled structurally dependent on the tree trunk axes. Finite element method is applied as deterministic basic solution of a loaded timber structure. A local orthotropic material formulation with respect to specifically located tree trunk axes is used. The optimal positions of the tree trunk axes for each wooden log are examined as design parameters. Polymorphic uncertainty is used to describe a priori parameters. The developed methods for uncertainty analysis are embedded in an automated and parallelized optimization processing. An analysis of a two-tier glulam beam, according to a purlin of a timber roof construction, is shown as numerical example for the optimization framework.
传统的优化方法采用确定性设计和先验参数。实木的材料特性在现实中是不确定的。因此,现实的优化和仿真方法需要考虑参数的不确定性。木材的不确定性主要来源于自然变化。除此之外,由于缺乏知识而产生的不确定性是固有的。因此,随机的任意方法可以扩展为多态不确定性模型。本文采用了基于模糊概率的随机性。因此,本文考虑了模糊的认知方法。随机变量的分布函数用模糊变量参数化。因此,涉及到任意不确定性和认知不确定性两者的耦合。考虑了参数间和参数内模糊变量的相互作用和随机变量的相互关系。采用互相关随机场表示材料参数的空间变化。自协方差结构在结构上依赖于树干轴。采用有限元法作为木结构受载的确定性基本解。一个局部正交各向异性材料的公式相对于特定位置的树干轴被使用。每个原木的树干轴的最佳位置作为设计参数进行了检查。多态不确定性用于描述先验参数。所开发的不确定性分析方法嵌入在自动化和并行化的优化处理中。以某木结构屋面结构为例,对两层胶合梁进行了分析,并给出了优化框架的数值算例。
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引用次数: 5
Breaking Wave Hazard Estimation Model for the U.S. Atlantic Coast 美国大西洋沿岸破碎波危害评估模型
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1115/1.4051161
Spencer T Hallowell, S. Arwade, C. Qiao, A. Myers, W. Pang
As offshore wind development is in its infancy along the U.S. Atlantic Coast challenges arise due to the effects of strong storms such as hurricanes. Breaking waves on offshore structures induced by hurricanes are of particular concern to offshore structures due to high magnitude impulse loads caused by wave slamming. Prediction of breaking wave hazards is important in offshore design for load cases using long mean return periods of environmental conditions. A breaking wave hazard estimation model (BWHEM) is introduced that provides a means for assessing breaking hazard at long mean return periods over a large domain along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. The BWHEM combines commonly used breaking criteria with the Inverse First Order Method of producing environmental contours and is applied in a numerical study using a catalog of stochastic hurricanes. The result of the study shows that breaking wave hazard estimation is highly sensitive to the breaking criteria chosen. Criteria including wave steepness and seafloor slope were found to predict breaking conditions at shorter return periods than criteria with only wave height and water depth taken into consideration. Breaking hazard was found to be most important for locations closer to the coast, where breaking was predicted to occur at lower mean return periods than locations further offshore.
由于美国大西洋沿岸的海上风电开发处于起步阶段,由于飓风等强风暴的影响,挑战也随之而来。由于海浪撞击引起的高震级冲击载荷,飓风对海上结构的破碎波是海上结构特别关注的问题。对于使用长平均返回周期环境条件的负荷情况,破碎波危险的预测在海上设计中是重要的。介绍了一种破碎波危险性估计模型(BWHEM),该模型为美国大西洋沿岸大范围海域的长平均回归期破碎危险性评估提供了一种方法。BWHEM将常用的破坏准则与生成环境等高线的逆一阶方法相结合,并应用于随机飓风目录的数值研究。研究结果表明,破碎波危害评估对所选择的破碎准则高度敏感。与只考虑浪高和水深的准则相比,包括波浪陡度和海底坡度在内的准则在较短的回归周期内预测破裂情况。发现破碎危险对靠近海岸的地方最重要,预计破碎发生的平均回归期比离岸更远的地方要短。
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引用次数: 1
Uncertainty in Wave Basin Testing of a Fixed Oscillating Water Column Wave Energy Converter 固定振荡水柱波能转换器波盆试验中的不确定性
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1115/1.4051164
F. Judge, E. Lyden, M. O’Shea, B. Flannery, Jimmy Murphy
This research presents a methodology for carrying out uncertainty analysis on measurements made during wave basin testing of an oscillating water column wave energy converter. Values are determined for type A and type B uncertainty for each parameter of interest, and uncertainty is propagated using the Monte Carlo method to obtain an overall expanded uncertainty with a 95% confidence level associated with the capture width ratio of the device. An investigation into the impact of reflections on the experimental results reveals the importance of identifying the incident and combined wave field at each measurement location used to determine device performance, in order to avoid misleading results.
本研究提出了一种对振荡水柱波能转换器的波盆试验测量结果进行不确定度分析的方法。为每个感兴趣的参数确定A型和B型不确定性的值,并使用蒙特卡罗方法传播不确定性,以获得与器件捕获宽度比相关的95%置信水平的总体扩展不确定性。研究了反射对实验结果的影响,揭示了在确定设备性能的每个测量位置识别入射波场和组合波场的重要性,以避免误导结果。
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引用次数: 5
Uncertainty Quantification for Fatigue Life of Offshore Wind Turbine Structure 海上风力发电机结构疲劳寿命的不确定性量化
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1115/1.4051162
Abraham Nispel, S. Ekwaro-Osire, J. Dias, A. Cunha
This study aims to address the question: can the structural reliability of an offshore wind turbine (OWT) under fatigue loading conditions be predicted more consistently? To respond to that question this study addresses the following specific aims: (1) to obtain a systematic approach that takes into consideration the amount of information available for the uncertainty modeling of the model input parameters and (2) to determine the impact of the most sensitive input parameters on the structural reliability of the OWT through a surrogate model. First, a coupled model to determine the fatigue life of the support structure considering the soil-structure interaction under 15 different loading conditions was developed. Second, a sensitivity scheme using two global analyses was developed to consistently establish the most and least important input parameters of the model. Third, systematic uncertainty quantification (UQ) scheme was employed to model the uncertainties of model input parameters based on their available—data-driven and physics-informed—information. Finally, the impact of the proposed UQ framework on the OWT structural reliability was evaluated through the estimation of the probability of failure of the structure based on the fatigue limit state design criterion. The results show high sensitivity for the wind speed and moderate sensitivity for parameters usually considered as deterministic values in design standards. Additionally, it is shown that applying systematic UQ not only produces a more efficient and better approximation of the fatigue life under uncertainty, but also a more accurate estimation of the structural reliability of offshore wind turbine's structure during conceptual design. Consequently, more reliable, and robust estimations of the structural designs for large offshore wind turbines with limited information may be achieved during the early stages of design.
本研究旨在解决这样一个问题:在疲劳载荷条件下,海上风力发电机(OWT)的结构可靠性能否得到更一致的预测?为了回答这个问题,本研究解决了以下具体目标:(1)获得一种考虑模型输入参数不确定性建模可用信息量的系统方法;(2)通过代理模型确定最敏感的输入参数对OWT结构可靠性的影响。首先,建立了考虑15种不同荷载条件下土-结构相互作用的支撑结构疲劳寿命耦合模型。其次,开发了一种使用两个全局分析的灵敏度方案,以一致地建立模型的最重要和最不重要的输入参数。第三,采用系统不确定性量化(UQ)方法,基于模型输入参数的可用数据驱动和物理信息,对模型输入参数的不确定性进行建模。最后,通过基于疲劳极限状态设计准则的结构失效概率估计,评估了所提出的UQ框架对OWT结构可靠性的影响。结果表明,风速的灵敏度较高,而设计标准中通常被认为是确定性值的参数的灵敏度一般。此外,应用系统UQ不仅可以更有效、更好地逼近不确定条件下的疲劳寿命,还可以在概念设计阶段更准确地估计海上风力机结构的可靠性。因此,在设计的早期阶段,可以在有限的信息下对大型海上风力涡轮机的结构设计进行更可靠、更稳健的估计。
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引用次数: 2
Optimizing the Cost and Reliability of Shared Anchors in an Array of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines 海上浮式风力发电机组共享锚的成本和可靠性优化
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1115/1.4051163
M. Devin, Bryony DuPont, Spencer T Hallowell, S. Arwade
Commercial floating offshore wind projects are expected to emerge in the U.S. by the end of this decade. Currently, however, high costs for the technology limit its commercial viability, and a lack of data regarding system reliability heightens project risk. This work presents an optimization algorithm to examine the tradeoffs between cost and reliability for a floating offshore wind array that uses shared anchoring. Combining a multivariable genetic algorithm with elements of Bayesian optimization, the optimization algorithm selectively increases anchor strengths to minimize the added costs of failure for a large floating wind farm in the Gulf of Maine under survival load conditions. The algorithm uses an evaluation function that computes the probability of mooring system failure, then calculates the expected maintenance costs of a failure via a Monte Carlo method. A cost sensitivity analysis is also performed to compare results for a range of maintenance cost profiles. The results indicate that virtually all of the farm's anchors are strengthened in the minimum cost solution. Anchor strength is increased between 5 and 35% depending on farm location, with anchor strength nearest the export cable being increased the most. The optimal solutions maintain a failure probability of 1.25%, demonstrating the tradeoff point between cost and reliability. System reliability was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in turbine costs and downtime, suggesting further research into floating offshore wind turbine failure modes in extreme loading conditions could be particularly impactful in reducing project uncertainty.
商业浮动海上风电项目预计将在本十年末在美国出现。然而,目前该技术的高成本限制了其商业可行性,并且缺乏有关系统可靠性的数据增加了项目风险。本工作提出了一种优化算法,用于检查使用共享锚固的浮式海上风电阵列的成本和可靠性之间的权衡。该优化算法将多变量遗传算法与贝叶斯优化元素相结合,选择性地增加锚强度,以最大限度地减少缅因湾大型浮式风电场在生存载荷条件下的故障增加成本。该算法使用评估函数计算系泊系统故障的概率,然后通过蒙特卡罗方法计算故障的预期维护成本。还执行了成本敏感性分析,以比较一系列维护成本概况的结果。结果表明,在最低成本的解决方案中,几乎所有农场的锚都得到了加强。根据农场位置的不同,锚杆强度增加了5%到35%,最靠近出口锚索的锚杆强度增加最多。最优方案的失效概率保持在1.25%,表明了成本和可靠性之间的平衡点。研究发现,系统可靠性对涡轮机成本和停机时间的变化特别敏感,这表明,进一步研究极端负载条件下浮式海上风力涡轮机的故障模式,对减少项目的不确定性尤其有影响。
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引用次数: 6
Interpretable machine learning in damage detection using Shapley Additive Explanations 使用Shapley加性解释的损伤检测中的可解释机器学习
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.31224/osf.io/96yf5
Artur Movsessian, D. Cava, D. Tcherniak
In recent years, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have gained popularity in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM). These have been particularly used for damage detection in a wide range of engineering applications such as wind turbine blades. The outcomes of previous research studies in this area have demonstrated the capabilities of ML for robust damage detection. However, the primary challenge facing ML in SHM is the lack of interpretability of the prediction models hindering the broader implementation of these techniques. For this purpose, this study integrates the novel Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method into a ML-based damage detection process as a tool for introducing interpretability and, thus, build evidence for reliable decision-making in SHM applications. The SHAP method is based on coalitional game theory and adds global and local interpretability to ML-based models by computing the marginal contribution of each feature. The contribution is used to understand the nature of damage indices (DIs). The applicability of the SHAP method is first demonstrated on a simple lumped mass-spring-damper system with simulated temperature variabilities. Later, the SHAP method has been evaluated on data from an in-operation V27 wind turbine with artificially introduced damage in one of its blades. The results show the relationship between the environmental and operational variabilities (EOVs) and their direct influence on the damage indices. This ultimately helps to understand the difference between false positives caused by EOVs and true positives resulting from damage in the structure.
近年来,机器学习(ML)技术在结构健康监测(SHM)中得到了广泛应用。这些特别用于广泛的工程应用中的损伤检测,例如风力涡轮机叶片。该领域之前的研究结果已经证明了机器学习在鲁棒损伤检测方面的能力。然而,在SHM中ML面临的主要挑战是缺乏预测模型的可解释性,这阻碍了这些技术的广泛实施。为此,本研究将新颖的Shapley加性解释(SHAP)方法集成到基于ml的损伤检测过程中,作为引入可解释性的工具,从而为SHM应用中的可靠决策建立证据。SHAP方法基于联合博弈论,通过计算每个特征的边际贡献,为基于ml的模型增加了全局和局部可解释性。该贡献用于理解损伤指数(DIs)的性质。首先在具有模拟温度变化的简单集总质量-弹簧-阻尼器系统上验证了SHAP方法的适用性。随后,在一台运行中的V27风力涡轮机的数据上对SHAP方法进行了评估,该涡轮机的一个叶片被人为地引入了损伤。研究结果表明,环境变率与作战变率之间存在一定的关系,并直接影响了损伤指标。这最终有助于理解由EOVs引起的假阳性和由结构损伤引起的真阳性之间的区别。
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引用次数: 12
Possibilistic Uncertainty Quantification in One-Dimensional Consolidation Problems 一维固结问题的可能性不确定性量化
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-02-15 DOI: 10.1115/1.4050164
D. Boumezerane
In this study, we use possibility distribution as a basis for parameter uncertainty quantification in 1-D consolidation problems. A Possibility distribution is the onepoint coverage function of a random set and viewed as containing both partial ignorance and uncertainty. Vagueness and scarcity of information needed for characterizing the coefficient of consolidation in clay can be handled using possibility distributions. Possibility distributions can be constructed from existing data, or based on transformation of probability distributions. An attempt is made to set a systematic approach for estimating uncertainty propagation during the consolidation process. The measure of uncertainty is based on Klir’s definition (1995). We make comparisons with results obtained from other approaches (probabilistic...) and discuss the importance of using possibility distributions in this type of problems.
在本研究中,我们使用可能性分布作为一维固结问题参数不确定性量化的基础。可能性分布是一个随机集合的一点覆盖函数,它包含了部分无知和不确定性。表征粘土固结系数所需的信息的模糊性和稀缺性可以用可能性分布来处理。可能性分布可以从现有数据中构造,也可以基于概率分布的变换。试图建立一种系统的方法来估计固结过程中的不确定性传播。不确定度的度量基于Klir的定义(1995)。我们与其他方法(概率…)得到的结果进行了比较,并讨论了在这类问题中使用可能性分布的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Chemical Vapor Infiltration Induced Matrix Porosity on the Mechanical Behavior of Ceramic Matrix Minicomposites   化学蒸汽渗透诱导基体孔隙率对陶瓷基微型复合材料力学行为的影响
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4047465
A. M. Nagaraja, S. Gururaja
AbstractCeramic matrix composites (CMCs) exhibit process-induced defects such as matrix porosity at multiple length scales that have a considerable influence on their mechanical and failure behavio...
摘要陶瓷基复合材料(CMCs)在多个长度尺度上表现出工艺缺陷,如基体孔隙率,这对其力学和破坏行为有很大的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Shallow and Deep Artificial Neural Networks for Structural Reliability Analysis 结构可靠性分析的浅层和深层人工神经网络
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4047636
Wellison J. S. Gomes
AbstractSurrogate models are efficient tools which have been successfully applied in structural reliability analysis, as an attempt to keep the computational costs acceptable. Among the surrogate m...
摘要替代模型是一种有效的工具,已成功地应用于结构可靠性分析,以保持计算成本可接受。在代理人中……
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引用次数: 15
Finite Element Analysis for Impact Tests on Polycarbonate Safety Guards: Comparison With Experimental Data and Statistical Dispersion of Ballistic Limit 聚碳酸酯安全防护罩冲击试验的有限元分析:与试验数据和弹道极限统计离散的比较
IF 2.2 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1115/1.4047464
A. Stecconi, L. Landi
AbstractDesign and testing of machine guards are provided by international standards in which the inadequacy/suitability of the tested materials for machine guards is obtained by the perforation/no...
摘要机械防护罩的设计和试验是由国际标准提供的,其中被测材料的不适当性/适用性是通过穿孔/不穿孔来确定的。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering
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