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ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering最新文献

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Prognostics and Health Management of Wind Energy Infrastructure Systems 风能基础设施系统的预测和健康管理
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053422
C. Yuce, Ozhan Gecgel, Oğuz Doğan, S. Dabetwar, Yasar Yanik, O. Kalay, E. Karpat, F. Karpat, S. Ekwaro-Osire
The improvements in wind energy infrastructure have been a constant process throughout many decades. There are new advancements in technology that can further contribute towards the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) in this industry. These advancements are driven by the need to fully explore the impact of uncertainty, quality and quantity of data, physics-based machine learning (PBML), and digital twin (DT). All these aspects need to be taken into consideration to perform an effective PHM of wind energy infrastructure. To address these aspects, four research questions were formulated. What is the role of uncertainty in machine learning (ML) in diagnostics and prognostics? What is the role of data augmentation and quality of data for ML? What is the role of PBML? What is the role of the DT in diagnostics and prognostics? The methodology used was Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA). A total of 143 records, from the last five years, were analyzed. Each of the four questions was answered by discussion of literature, definitions, critical aspects, benefits and challenges, the role of aspect in PHM of wind energy infrastructure systems, and conclusion.
几十年来,风能基础设施的改进一直是一个持续的过程。有新的技术进步可以进一步促进该行业的预后和健康管理(PHM)。这些进步是由充分探索不确定性、数据质量和数量、基于物理的机器学习(PBML)和数字孪生(DT)的影响的需求推动的。要对风能基础设施进行有效的PHM,需要考虑所有这些方面。为了解决这些问题,我们制定了四个研究问题。不确定性在机器学习(ML)诊断和预测中的作用是什么?数据增强和数据质量对机器学习的作用是什么?PBML的作用是什么?DT在诊断和预后中的作用是什么?使用的方法是系统评价和荟萃分析首选报告项目(PRISMA)。研究人员分析了过去五年的143条记录。通过对文献、定义、关键方面、利益和挑战、方面在风能基础设施系统PHM中的作用以及结论的讨论,回答了这四个问题。
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引用次数: 8
Survey Use to Validate Engineering Methodology and Enhance System Safety 测量用于验证工程方法和提高系统安全性
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053305
Jonathan K. Corrado
Surveys and the resulting data provide powerful insights to an item or concept being assessed. Not only do they garner feedback that can be used to enhance the item, but, in the instance of this article, they can enhance the validity of positive change via novel concepts prior to spending the time and money in incorporating these concepts and running the risk of negligible meaningful return. In an effort to ensure the validity of proposed novel methods in a design engineering context, a survey was developed and administered to engineering subject matter experts. This was done to not only ensure that the proposed methods would be viable if implemented but gave confidence in the results of the research that drove the method development. This assessment activity served as a risk reduction activity to ensure smooth implementation of the methods from both an efficiency standpoint and, most importantly, as part of maximizing system safety. This paper discusses the composition and considerations of the survey administered in the research study, in addition to the survey results with the intention of providing a format for others in a similar context to glean from and, if practical, replicate the method.
调查和由此产生的数据为正在评估的项目或概念提供了强有力的见解。他们不仅可以获得可用于增强项目的反馈,而且,在本文的实例中,他们可以在花费时间和金钱整合这些概念并冒着微不足道的有意义回报的风险之前,通过新颖的概念来增强积极变化的有效性。为了确保在设计工程背景下提出的新方法的有效性,我们开发了一项调查,并对工程主题专家进行了管理。这样做不仅是为了确保所提出的方法在实施时是可行的,而且还为推动方法开发的研究结果提供了信心。该评估活动作为降低风险的活动,从效率的角度确保方法的顺利实施,最重要的是,作为最大化系统安全性的一部分。本文讨论了研究研究中管理的调查的组成和考虑因素,除了调查结果之外,还旨在为类似背景下的其他人提供一种格式,以便从中收集,如果可行,可以复制该方法。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue on Uncertainty Quantification and Management in Additive Manufacturing 增材制造中的不确定性量化与管理特刊
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-12-11 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053183
Zhen Hu, S. Nannapaneni, S. Mahadevan
N/A
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty Quantification for Additive Manufacturing Process Improvement: Recent Advances 增材制造过程改进的不确定性量化:最新进展
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-12-07 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053184
S. Mahadevan, Paromita Nath, Zhen Hu
This paper reviews the state of the art in applying uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to additive manufacturing (AM). Physics-based as well as data-driven models are increasingly being developed and refined in order to support process optimization and control objectives in AM, in particular to maximize the quality and minimize the variability of the AM product. However, before using these models for decision-making, a fundamental question that needs to be answered is to what degree the models can be trusted, and consider the various uncertainty sources that affect their prediction. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in AM is not trivial because of the complex multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena in the AM process. This article reviews the literature on UQ methodologies focusing on model uncertainty, discusses the corresponding activities of calibration, verification and validation, and examines their applications reported in the AM literature. The extension of current UQ methodologies to additive manufacturing needs to address multi-physics, multi-scale interactions, increasing presence of data-driven models, high cost of manufacturing, and complexity of measurements. The activities that need to be undertaken in order to implement verification, calibration, and validation for AM are discussed. Literature on using the results of UQ activities towards AM process optimization and control (thus supporting maximization of quality and minimization of variability) is also reviewed. Future research needs both in terms of UQ and decision-making in AM are outlined.
本文综述了不确定性量化(UQ)方法在增材制造(AM)中的应用现状。为了支持增材制造中的过程优化和控制目标,特别是为了最大限度地提高质量和最大限度地减少增材制造产品的可变性,基于物理的模型和数据驱动的模型正在得到越来越多的开发和完善。然而,在使用这些模型进行决策之前,需要回答的一个基本问题是模型可以信任到什么程度,并考虑影响其预测的各种不确定性来源。由于增材制造过程中存在着复杂的多物理场、多尺度现象,因此不确定度的量化问题不容忽视。本文回顾了关于UQ方法的文献,重点关注模型不确定性,讨论了相应的校准,验证和验证活动,并检查了AM文献中报道的它们的应用。将当前UQ方法扩展到增材制造需要解决多物理场、多尺度相互作用、数据驱动模型的增加、高制造成本和测量的复杂性等问题。讨论了为了实现增材制造的验证、校准和确认而需要进行的活动。还回顾了使用UQ活动结果进行增材制造过程优化和控制(从而支持质量最大化和变异性最小化)的文献。概述了未来在UQ和AM决策方面的研究需求。
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引用次数: 15
Multi-Objective Optimization Under Uncertainty of Part Quality in Fused Filament Fabrication 熔丝加工中零件质量不确定的多目标优化
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053181
B. Kapusuzoglu, Paromita Nath, Matthew Sato, S. Mahadevan, P. Witherell
This work presents a data-driven methodology for multi-objective optimization under uncertainty of process parameters in the fused filament fabrication (FFF) process. The proposed approach optimizes the process parameters with the objectives of minimizing the geometric inaccuracy and maximizing the filament bond quality of the manufactured part. First, experiments are conducted to collect data pertaining to the part quality. Then, Bayesian neural network (BNN) models are constructed to predict the geometric inaccuracy and bond quality as functions of the process parameters. The BNN model captures the model uncertainty caused by the lack of knowledge about model parameters (neuron weights) and the input variability due to the intrinsic randomness in the input parameters. Using the stochastic predictions from these models, different robustness-based design optimization formulations are investigated, wherein process parameters such as nozzle temperature, nozzle speed, and layer thickness are optimized under uncertainty for different multi-objective scenarios. Epistemic uncertainty in the prediction model and the aleatory uncertainty in the input are considered in the optimization. Finally, Pareto surfaces are constructed to estimate the trade-offs between the objectives. Both the BNN models and the effectiveness of the proposed optimization methodology are validated using actual manufacturing of the parts.
本文提出了一种数据驱动的多目标优化方法,用于熔丝制造过程中工艺参数的不确定性。该方法以最小化几何误差和最大化制造零件的丝键质量为目标,对工艺参数进行优化。首先,进行实验以收集与零件质量有关的数据。然后,建立贝叶斯神经网络(BNN)模型,预测几何误差和键合质量作为工艺参数的函数。BNN模型捕获了由于缺乏对模型参数(神经元权重)的了解而引起的模型不确定性,以及由于输入参数的内在随机性而引起的输入可变性。利用这些模型的随机预测,研究了不同的基于鲁棒性的设计优化公式,其中喷嘴温度、喷嘴速度和层厚等工艺参数在不确定情况下针对不同的多目标场景进行了优化。优化时考虑了预测模型中的认知不确定性和输入中的选择性不确定性。最后,构造帕累托曲面来估计目标之间的权衡。通过零件的实际制造验证了BNN模型和所提出的优化方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 2
Definition of a Basic Design for Conversion of an Offshore Fixed Platform on a Depleted Reservoir Into a Sustainable Plant 枯竭水库海上固定平台转化为可持续工厂的基本设计定义
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-11-20 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053061
A. C. Uggenti, R. Gerboni, A. Carpignano, G. Ballocco, Andrea Tortora, Amedeo Aliberti
In the framework of energy transition, a focus is given to the study of the conversion of offshore Oil&Gas platforms at the end of their life due to depletion of the reservoirs on which they operate. Their modular and versatile structure allows the implementation of new processes and innovative sustainable technologies for reducing the environmental impact of a complete decommissioning, especially on the subsea ecosystem that has grown around the jacket, and for guaranteeing costsaving solutions. Among different conversion options, this paper focuses on the installation on the platform of a system for the production of photovoltaic (PV) energy to be used for seawater desalination and its delivery to other platforms operating in the same area. The project focuses on the definition of technical characteristics of the basic design, on the investigation of the technical feasibility of the conversion process, on qualitative safety and environmental impact studies. Moreover, the old platform equipment to be decommissioned (ie. the equipment necessary for hydrocarbons treatment) are identified and the installation of new equipment is optimized, eg. the number of PV panels and, therefore, the installed power are maximized. At the same time, decommissioning costs and impacts can be minimized. The basic design is completed with a preliminary structural verification to guarantee that critical situations do not rise, with an indication on the main maintenance activities for the preservation of plant good efficiency and with safety and environmental preliminary analyses for the identification of potential criticalities to be managed at different design levels.
在能源转型的框架下,重点研究了由于其所运行的油藏枯竭而导致的海上油气平台在其使用寿命结束时的转换。它们的模块化和多用途结构允许实施新工艺和创新的可持续技术,以减少完全退役对环境的影响,特别是对套管周围生长的海底生态系统的影响,并确保节省成本的解决方案。在不同的转换方案中,本文重点介绍了在平台上安装用于海水淡化的光伏(PV)能源生产系统,并将其输送到同一地区运行的其他平台。该项目的重点是确定基本设计的技术特点,调查转换过程的技术可行性,进行定性的安全和环境影响研究。此外,旧的平台设备将退役(即。确定了碳氢化合物处理所需的设备,并优化了新设备的安装。光伏板的数量,从而使装机功率最大化。同时,可以将退役成本和影响降至最低。基本设计完成后,进行了初步的结构验证,以确保危急情况不会出现,并对主要维护活动进行了指示,以保持工厂的良好效率,并进行了安全和环境初步分析,以确定在不同设计水平上要管理的潜在危急情况。
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引用次数: 2
Proposing an Uncertainty Management Framework to Implement the Evidence Theory for Vehicle Crash Applications 提出一种不确定性管理框架,实现车辆碰撞证据理论的应用
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-11-20 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053062
J. Jehle, Volker A. Lange, M. Gerdts
The purpose of this work is to enable the use of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for uncertainty propagation on computationally expensive automotive crash simulations. This is necessary as the results of these simulations are influenced by multiple possibly uncertain aspects. To avoid negative effects, it is important to detect these factors and their consequences. The challenge when pursuing this effort is the prohibitively high computational cost of the evidence theory. To this end, we present a framework of existing methods that is specifically designed to reduce the necessary number of full model evaluations and parameters. An initial screening removes clearly irrelevant parameters to mitigate the curse of dimensionality. Next, we approximate the full-scale simulation using metamodels to accelerate output generation and thus enable the calculation of global sensitivity indices. These indicate effects of the parameters on the considered output and more profoundly sort out irrelevant parameters. After these steps, the evidence theory can be performed rapidly and feasibly due to fast-responding metamodel and reduced input dimension. It yields bounds for the cumulative distribution function of the considered quantity of interest. We apply the proposed framework to a simplified crash test dummy model. The elementary effects method is used for screening, a kriging metamodel emulates the finite element simulation, and Sobol' sensitivity indices are determined before the evidence theory is applied. The outcome of the framework provide engineers with information about the uncertainties they may face in hardware testing and that should be addressed in future vehicle design.
这项工作的目的是使Dempster-Shafer证据理论能够在计算昂贵的汽车碰撞模拟中用于不确定性传播。这是必要的,因为这些模拟的结果受到多个可能不确定因素的影响。为了避免负面影响,重要的是要发现这些因素及其后果。追求这一努力的挑战是证据理论的高得令人望而却步的计算成本。为此,我们提出了一个现有方法的框架,专门用于减少完整模型评估和参数的必要数量。初始筛选去除明显不相关的参数,以减轻维度的诅咒。接下来,我们使用元模型近似全尺寸模拟以加速输出生成,从而使全局灵敏度指数的计算成为可能。这些表明参数对所考虑的输出的影响,并更深刻地整理出无关的参数。经过这些步骤,由于元模型的快速响应和输入维数的降低,证据理论可以快速可行地进行。它给出了所考虑的兴趣量的累积分布函数的界限。我们将提出的框架应用于一个简化的碰撞试验假人模型。采用初等效应法进行筛选,采用kriging元模型进行有限元仿真,在应用证据理论之前确定Sobol敏感性指标。该框架的结果为工程师提供了他们在硬件测试中可能面临的不确定性信息,这些不确定性应该在未来的车辆设计中得到解决。
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引用次数: 1
Calibration and Validation of Multiscale Model for Ultimate Strength Prediction of Composite Laminates Under Uncertainty 不确定条件下复合材料层合板极限强度预测多尺度模型的标定与验证
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-11-20 DOI: 10.1115/1.4053060
R. Bhattacharyya, S. Mahadevan
A methodology to account for the effect of epistemic uncertainty (regarding model parameters) on the strength prediction of carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite laminates is presented. A three-dimensional concurrent multiscale physics modeling framework is considered. A continuum damage mechanics-based constitutive relation is used for multiscale analysis. The parameters for the constitutive model are unknown and need to be calibrated. A least squares-based approach is employed for the calibration of model parameters and a model discrepancy term. The calibrated constitutive model is validated quantitatively using experimental data for both unnotched and open-hole specimens with different composite layups. The quantitative validation results are used to indicate further steps for model improvement.
提出了一种考虑认知不确定性(关于模型参数)对碳纤维增强聚合物(CFRP)复合材料层合板强度预测影响的方法。提出了一种三维并发多尺度物理建模框架。采用基于连续损伤力学的本构关系进行多尺度分析。本构模型的参数未知,需要标定。采用基于最小二乘的方法对模型参数和模型差异项进行校正。利用不同复合材料铺层的无缺口和裸眼试件的实验数据,对标定后的本构模型进行了定量验证。定量验证结果用于指示模型改进的进一步步骤。
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引用次数: 5
Evaluation of Testing Uncertainties for the Impact Resistance of Machine Guards 机械防护罩抗冲击试验不确定度评定
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.1115/1.4052995
L. Landi, E. Uhlmann, Robert Hoerl, S. Thom, Giuseppe Gigliotti, A. Stecconi
Machine guards provide protection against ejection of parts during operation, such as chips or workpiece fragments. They are considered safe if the impact resistance is at least as high as the resulting projectile energy in the worst case of damage. To protect the machine operator, the impact resistance of machine guards is determined according to ISO standards. The bisection method can be used to determine the impact resistance through impact tests. However, this method is inaccurate for a small number of impact tests and does not provide an indication of uncertainties in the determination. Moreover, the result of testing is validated in different ways depending from the standard utilized for testing.Relevant uncertainties affecting impact testing and a new probabilistic approach for assessing the impact resistance using the Recht & Ipson equation are presented. With multiple impact tests at different initial velocities a Recht & Ipson best-fit curve and a confidence interval for a ballistic limit can be obtained, which is used to determine the impact resistance by defining a velocity reduction coefficient. This method can be applied to any machine guard made of ductile material. This paper validates the Recht & Ipson method by performing impact tests with a standardized 2.5 kg projectile on polycarbonate sheets of different thicknesses. Determination of the ballistic limit showed good agreement with experimental results. With the ballistic limits, the velocity reduction coefficients have been found to determine the impact resistances. Therefore, an alternative method for standardized tests to determine the impact resistance was found.
机器防护罩在操作过程中提供防止零件弹出的保护,例如切屑或工件碎片。如果在最坏的情况下,它们的抗冲击能力至少与产生的抛射能量一样高,则被认为是安全的。为了保护机器操作人员,机器防护罩的抗冲击性是根据ISO标准确定的。通过冲击试验,可采用对分法确定其抗冲击性。但是,这种方法对于少数冲击试验是不准确的,并且不能提供测定中的不确定度的指示。此外,根据用于测试的标准,测试结果以不同的方式进行验证。提出了影响冲击试验的相关不确定因素,并利用Recht & Ipson方程提出了一种新的评估抗冲击性能的概率方法。通过不同初速度下的多次冲击试验,可以得到Recht & Ipson最佳拟合曲线和弹道极限置信区间,并通过定义速度减小系数来确定抗冲击性能。该方法适用于任何由延展性材料制成的机器防护装置。本文通过在不同厚度的聚碳酸酯板上进行标准化2.5 kg弹丸的冲击试验,验证了Recht & Ipson方法。测定的弹道极限与实验结果吻合较好。在弹道极限条件下,确定了速度减速系数来确定其抗冲击性能。因此,找到了一种标准化测试的替代方法来确定抗冲击性。
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引用次数: 4
Two-Step Algorithm to Detect Cyber-Attack Over the Can-Bus: A Preliminary Case Study in Connected Vehicles 基于can总线的网络攻击检测两步算法:网联汽车的初步案例研究
IF 2.2 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.1115/1.4052823
Marco Lombardi, F. Pascale, D. Santaniello
Modern vehicles are connected to the network and between each other through smart sensors and smart objects commonly present on board. This situation has allowed manufacturers to send over-the-air updates, receive diagnostic information, and offer various multimedia services. More generally, at present, all this is indicated by the term 'Vehicle to Everything' (V2X), which indicates a system of communication between a vehicle to any entity that may influence the vehicle and vice versa. However, it introduces problems regarding the vehicle's IT security. It is possible, for example, by tampering with one of the Electronic Control Units (ECUs) to take partial or total control of the vehicle. In this paper, we introduce a preliminary study case to guarantee cybersecurity inside connected vehicles. In particular, an Intrusion Detection System over the CAN-Bus to allow the possible malicious massages. In particular, through the use of a two-step detection algorithm that exploits both the variation of the status parameters of the various ECUs over time and the Bayesian networks can identify a possible attack. The first experimental results seem encouraging.
现代车辆通过智能传感器和智能物体连接到网络,并在彼此之间连接。这种情况允许制造商发送无线更新、接收诊断信息和提供各种多媒体服务。目前,更普遍的说法是“车辆到一切”(V2X),它指的是车辆与任何可能影响车辆的实体之间的通信系统,反之亦然。然而,它引入了有关车辆it安全的问题。例如,通过篡改其中一个电子控制单元(ecu)来部分或完全控制车辆是可能的。本文介绍了一个初步的研究案例,以保证网联汽车内部的网络安全。特别是,通过can总线的入侵检测系统允许可能的恶意消息。特别是,通过使用两步检测算法,利用各种ecu状态参数随时间的变化和贝叶斯网络可以识别可能的攻击。最初的实验结果似乎令人鼓舞。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems Part B-Mechanical Engineering
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