Between 2008 and 2013 productive capacity was considerably downsized in the Italian manufacturing sector. This paper analyses the micro-data collected for the Bank of Italy surveys to identify the main drivers of the reduction in the whole 2008-13 period and in four sub-periods (pre-crisis 2001-07, first phase of the crisis 2008-09, recovery 2010-11, and second crisis 2012-13). Our main findings are that i) losses of productive capacity varied widely across manufacturing sub-sectors with differences in pre-crisis trends tending to persist in a few sub-sectors during the double-dip recession; ii) large firms were more successful in avoiding major capacity losses, especially in the first phase of the crisis; iii) the share of sales on foreign markets was negatively correlated with performance in 2008-09, but the correlation turned positive in 2012-13; iv) among the Italian macro-regions, the Centre weathered the long recession better; v) subsidiaries underperformed firms not belonging to any group; and vi) the negative effects on productive capacity of credit constraints, which discouraged investments, were felt by Italian firms particularly in 2012-13.
{"title":"Heterogeneous Fall in Productive Capacity in Italian Industry During the 2008-13 Double-Dip Recession","authors":"A. Locatelli, Libero Monteforte, G. Zevi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2759788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2759788","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2008 and 2013 productive capacity was considerably downsized in the Italian manufacturing sector. This paper analyses the micro-data collected for the Bank of Italy surveys to identify the main drivers of the reduction in the whole 2008-13 period and in four sub-periods (pre-crisis 2001-07, first phase of the crisis 2008-09, recovery 2010-11, and second crisis 2012-13). Our main findings are that i) losses of productive capacity varied widely across manufacturing sub-sectors with differences in pre-crisis trends tending to persist in a few sub-sectors during the double-dip recession; ii) large firms were more successful in avoiding major capacity losses, especially in the first phase of the crisis; iii) the share of sales on foreign markets was negatively correlated with performance in 2008-09, but the correlation turned positive in 2012-13; iv) among the Italian macro-regions, the Centre weathered the long recession better; v) subsidiaries underperformed firms not belonging to any group; and vi) the negative effects on productive capacity of credit constraints, which discouraged investments, were felt by Italian firms particularly in 2012-13.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122220187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigate the effects of the prolonged double-dip recession on the productive capacity of the Italian manufacturing sector, employing three methods: a production function approach, a survey-based methodology and a statistical filtering of the industrial production series. We estimate that between 2007 and 2013 capacity contracted by 11i?½17%, depending on the method. We also conduct an exercise to quantify the loss with respect to a counterfactual evolution of capacity in a i?½no-crisisi?½ scenario in which pre-2008 trends are extrapolated: in this case the loss is close to 20% for all methods. Finally, we identify the main sectors of activity responsible for the reduction in capacity in the baseline and counterfactual scenarios, and find that they doni?½t always coincide, reflecting uneven dynamics across sectors before and during the recession.
{"title":"An Inquiry into Manufacturing Capacity in Italy after the Double-Dip Recession","authors":"Libero Monteforte, G. Zevi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2759786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2759786","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigate the effects of the prolonged double-dip recession on the productive capacity of the Italian manufacturing sector, employing three methods: a production function approach, a survey-based methodology and a statistical filtering of the industrial production series. We estimate that between 2007 and 2013 capacity contracted by 11i?½17%, depending on the method. We also conduct an exercise to quantify the loss with respect to a counterfactual evolution of capacity in a i?½no-crisisi?½ scenario in which pre-2008 trends are extrapolated: in this case the loss is close to 20% for all methods. Finally, we identify the main sectors of activity responsible for the reduction in capacity in the baseline and counterfactual scenarios, and find that they doni?½t always coincide, reflecting uneven dynamics across sectors before and during the recession.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128477234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consider a database of academic papers where each paper has a scientific worth and a group of authors. We propose a new way of measuring individual academic productivity by evaluating authorship, the extent of an author's contribution to each paper. Our method, CoScore, uses the varying levels of success of all academic partnerships to infer, simultaneously, overall individual productivity and authorship: the worth of a paper is distributed proportionally to each co-author's productivity, defined as the sum of her contributions to all papers. The CoScores of all authors are determined endogenously via the solution of a fixed point problem. We show that CoScore is well-defined and that it is uniquely characterized by three properties: consistency, invariance to merging papers, and invariance to merging scholars. We illustrate CoScore for the two thousand most cited papers in economics.
{"title":"Co-Authorship and the Measurement of Individual Productivity","authors":"Karol Szwagrzak, Rafael Treibich","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2741594","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2741594","url":null,"abstract":"Consider a database of academic papers where each paper has a scientific worth and a group of authors. We propose a new way of measuring individual academic productivity by evaluating authorship, the extent of an author's contribution to each paper. Our method, CoScore, uses the varying levels of success of all academic partnerships to infer, simultaneously, overall individual productivity and authorship: the worth of a paper is distributed proportionally to each co-author's productivity, defined as the sum of her contributions to all papers. The CoScores of all authors are determined endogenously via the solution of a fixed point problem. We show that CoScore is well-defined and that it is uniquely characterized by three properties: consistency, invariance to merging papers, and invariance to merging scholars. We illustrate CoScore for the two thousand most cited papers in economics.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"06 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127215905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although European Single Market (ESM) has been widely perceived as a model for regional integration, there continues to be considerable debate about the impact of this integration on the EU regions. Studies in this field have mainly investigated the convergence-divergence issue, while the effect of ESM on regional performance has attracted few empirical studies. The non-parametric metafrontier framework used in this study, as a first stage of analysis, is exploited to account for the heterogeneity between the Italian regions in the whole period and in two distinct time periods before and after EMU implementation. In a second stage, using a partial least squares model, the technology gaps estimated for each period have been regressed, investigating possible factors that may have affected regional performance. Our fndings reveal a signifcant improvement for the Italian regions since ESM implementation,a paradoxically unchanged behavior for efficiency performance in the Centre-North regions, and clear identifcation of specifically which regions performed better in terms of the technology gap. The inclusion of variables related to regional trade performance in the model indicates that trade balance is of major importance.
{"title":"The Incidence of International Trade on Italian Regional Productive Efficiency Performance - An Investigation of Technology Gaps","authors":"K. Kounetas, O. Napolitano","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2685850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2685850","url":null,"abstract":"Although European Single Market (ESM) has been widely perceived as a model for regional integration, there continues to be considerable debate about the impact of this integration on the EU regions. Studies in this field have mainly investigated the convergence-divergence issue, while the effect of ESM on regional performance has attracted few empirical studies. The non-parametric metafrontier framework used in this study, as a first stage of analysis, is exploited to account for the heterogeneity between the Italian regions in the whole period and in two distinct time periods before and after EMU implementation. In a second stage, using a partial least squares model, the technology gaps estimated for each period have been regressed, investigating possible factors that may have affected regional performance. Our fndings reveal a signifcant improvement for the Italian regions since ESM implementation,a paradoxically unchanged behavior for efficiency performance in the Centre-North regions, and clear identifcation of specifically which regions performed better in terms of the technology gap. The inclusion of variables related to regional trade performance in the model indicates that trade balance is of major importance.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126415918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impact of exporting and importing on productivity for UK plantsusing a combination of regression and propensity score matching. Unlike earlier papers, the data allows us to distinguish the effects of trade in goods and services. In confirmation of the results from other countries, we find that plants that both export and import have higher productivity than plants that only do one of these activities. In manufacturing, this is the case regardless of whether the trade is in goods or services (which suggests that servitisation of manufacturing is beneficial).In services, the results are more mixed and the benefits from involvement in international goods networks that are seen in manufacturing do not occur to the same extent (however, for the wholesale and retail sectors, trade in both goods and services is generally productivity enhancing).
{"title":"The Impact of Exporting and Importing Goods and Services on Productivity in the UK","authors":"Richard D. F. Harris, J. Moffat","doi":"10.1111/twec.12292","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12292","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of exporting and importing on productivity for UK plantsusing a combination of regression and propensity score matching. Unlike earlier papers, the data allows us to distinguish the effects of trade in goods and services. In confirmation of the results from other countries, we find that plants that both export and import have higher productivity than plants that only do one of these activities. In manufacturing, this is the case regardless of whether the trade is in goods or services (which suggests that servitisation of manufacturing is beneficial).In services, the results are more mixed and the benefits from involvement in international goods networks that are seen in manufacturing do not occur to the same extent (however, for the wholesale and retail sectors, trade in both goods and services is generally productivity enhancing).","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"98 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126314731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using comprehensive longitudinal matched employer-employee data for the U.S., this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between productivity and immigration- spawned urban diversity. Existing empirical work has uncovered a robust positive correlation between productivity and immigrant diversity, supporting theory suggesting that diversity acts as a local public good that makes workers more productive by enlarging the pool of knowledge available to them, as well as by fostering opportunities for them to recombine ideas to generate novelty. This paper makes several empirical and conceptual contributions. First, it improves on existing empirical work by addressing various sources of potential bias, especially from unobserved heterogeneity among individuals, work establishments, and cities. Second, it augments identification by using longitudinal data that permits examination of how diversity and productivity co-move. Third, the paper seeks to reveal whether diversity acts upon productivity chiefly at the scale of the city or the workplace. Findings confirm that urban immigrant diversity produces positive and nontrivial spillovers for U.S. workers. This social return represents a distinct channel through which immigration generates broad-based economic benefits
{"title":"Spillovers from Immigrant Diversity in Cities","authors":"Thomas Kemney, Abigail M. Cooke","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2685108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2685108","url":null,"abstract":"Using comprehensive longitudinal matched employer-employee data for the U.S., this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between productivity and immigration- spawned urban diversity. Existing empirical work has uncovered a robust positive correlation between productivity and immigrant diversity, supporting theory suggesting that diversity acts as a local public good that makes workers more productive by enlarging the pool of knowledge available to them, as well as by fostering opportunities for them to recombine ideas to generate novelty. This paper makes several empirical and conceptual contributions. First, it improves on existing empirical work by addressing various sources of potential bias, especially from unobserved heterogeneity among individuals, work establishments, and cities. Second, it augments identification by using longitudinal data that permits examination of how diversity and productivity co-move. Third, the paper seeks to reveal whether diversity acts upon productivity chiefly at the scale of the city or the workplace. Findings confirm that urban immigrant diversity produces positive and nontrivial spillovers for U.S. workers. This social return represents a distinct channel through which immigration generates broad-based economic benefits","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131424891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Dekle, A. Kawakami, N. Kiyotaki, Tsutomu Miyagawa
We examine the effects of shocks to aggregate productivity, foreign output demand, government expenditures, and demand for foreign liquidity on dynamics of products and exports of heterogeneous firms. The framework is motivated by open economy general equilibrium models of Bilbie, Ghironi and Melitz (2012) and Dekle, Jeong and Kiyotaki (2014). We first construct unique firm level data on products and exports from the Census of Manufactures conducted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The data are more disaggregated than comparable U.S. data and available at the annual frequency (while U.S. product level data are only available at five-year intervals), which makes our data more suitable for examining the interaction between the business cycle and firm-product heterogeneity. Our empirical results show that the development of new products is stimulated by improvements in not only firm level productivity but also aggregate productivity. We also find that an increase in foreign demand and a shock to depreciate the home real exchange rate increase product dynamics and exports.
{"title":"Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese Product and Firm Level Data","authors":"R. Dekle, A. Kawakami, N. Kiyotaki, Tsutomu Miyagawa","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2712529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2712529","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the effects of shocks to aggregate productivity, foreign output demand, government expenditures, and demand for foreign liquidity on dynamics of products and exports of heterogeneous firms. The framework is motivated by open economy general equilibrium models of Bilbie, Ghironi and Melitz (2012) and Dekle, Jeong and Kiyotaki (2014). We first construct unique firm level data on products and exports from the Census of Manufactures conducted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The data are more disaggregated than comparable U.S. data and available at the annual frequency (while U.S. product level data are only available at five-year intervals), which makes our data more suitable for examining the interaction between the business cycle and firm-product heterogeneity. Our empirical results show that the development of new products is stimulated by improvements in not only firm level productivity but also aggregate productivity. We also find that an increase in foreign demand and a shock to depreciate the home real exchange rate increase product dynamics and exports.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"30 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113935976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We construct a Malmquist productivity index based on stochastic non-parametric envelopment of data (StoNED) method, and we study how the distributional assumptions in the second StoNED stage affect productivity change and its decompositions. Our discussion show that the distributional assumptions do not affect the estimates of overall productivity change and scale efficiency change, but that estimates of efficiency change and technical change are affected. Data on Norwegian electricity distribution companies is used to illustrate our discussion.
{"title":"Malmquist Productivity Analysis Based on StoNED","authors":"Xiaomei Cheng, E. Bjørndal, M. Bjørndal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2665079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2665079","url":null,"abstract":"We construct a Malmquist productivity index based on stochastic non-parametric envelopment of data (StoNED) method, and we study how the distributional assumptions in the second StoNED stage affect productivity change and its decompositions. Our discussion show that the distributional assumptions do not affect the estimates of overall productivity change and scale efficiency change, but that estimates of efficiency change and technical change are affected. Data on Norwegian electricity distribution companies is used to illustrate our discussion.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126636148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is intended as a resource for researchers using the New Zealand Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) to study the productivity of New Zealand firms. First, it documents the methods used for creating a consistent dataset of production data, combining survey and administrative data sources. Second, it discusses a range of identification and estimation issues that arise when using the data for the estimation of multi-factor productivity. Finally, it demonstrates the value and usefulness of the data by presenting and comparing a range of productivity estimates for a single industry.
{"title":"Production Function Estimation Using New Zealand's Longitudinal Business Database","authors":"R. Fabling, David C. Maré","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2660548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2660548","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is intended as a resource for researchers using the New Zealand Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) to study the productivity of New Zealand firms. First, it documents the methods used for creating a consistent dataset of production data, combining survey and administrative data sources. Second, it discusses a range of identification and estimation issues that arise when using the data for the estimation of multi-factor productivity. Finally, it demonstrates the value and usefulness of the data by presenting and comparing a range of productivity estimates for a single industry.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121266843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MNFs) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNFs entry and production, I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNFs sort according to their own productivity. The entry and production of MNFs contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates and affect domestic producers through general equilibrium effects in the labor market. I argue that the heterogeneous composition of the population of affiliates can help explain the conflicting evidence on the impact of foreign direct investment on growth.
{"title":"Multinational Firms' Entry and Productivity: Some Aggregate Implications of Firm-Level Heterogeneity","authors":"Silvio Contessi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2652121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2652121","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the microeconomic evidence supporting the superior idiosyncratic productivity of multinational firms (MNFs) and their affiliates, cross-country studies fail to find robust evidence of a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and growth. In order to study the aggregate implications of MNFs entry and production, I develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity where MNFs sort according to their own productivity. The entry and production of MNFs contribute to aggregate productivity growth at decreasing rates and affect domestic producers through general equilibrium effects in the labor market. I argue that the heterogeneous composition of the population of affiliates can help explain the conflicting evidence on the impact of foreign direct investment on growth.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121164972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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