Pub Date : 2021-12-01DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.464
Anna Llanos-Antczak, Z. Śliwa
Information is a powerful tool used in any society and by any nation to create excepted perception of reality. Russian information operations have always been a very interesting example of using various media to manipulate international and domestic opinion in support of national (government) objectives. The situation has not changed in the contemporary information environment based on the nation’s experiences and skilful utilization of emerging tools and technologies. Those capabilities are used pragmatically by Kremlin-controlled media to shape the future among younger people. In this respect, the paper is based on research conducted in selected Moscow and Saint Petersburg universities, responsible for educating future generations. The research is based on young adults’ perception of the information provided by Channel One (Russian: Первый канал). This is the most influential and popular television channel controlled by the current government; therefore, it plays a significant role in spreading propaganda to shape the perception of the realm by domestic and foreign audiences alike. The authors conducted research in the years 2017-2019, employing the survey method to find out what is the effect of television-based propaganda type of information to manipulate the recipients. The research revealed that, although the Russian media strongly influences the study group, the respondents recognize the utilization of propaganda, which is founded on a one-sided narrative, and they are not easily manipulated. Moreover, the results presented that there is an interdependence between the favourable opinions about Channel One’s Vriemia news coverage and vulnerability to manipulation and propaganda techniques.
{"title":"Manipulation and Propaganda in the Russian Media: The Case of the Vriemia News Programme (2017-2019)","authors":"Anna Llanos-Antczak, Z. Śliwa","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.464","url":null,"abstract":"Information is a powerful tool used in any society and by any nation to create excepted perception of reality. Russian information operations have always been a very interesting example of using various media to manipulate international and domestic opinion in support of national (government) objectives. The situation has not changed in the contemporary information environment based on the nation’s experiences and skilful utilization of emerging tools and technologies. Those capabilities are used pragmatically by Kremlin-controlled media to shape the future among younger people. In this respect, the paper is based on research conducted in selected Moscow and Saint Petersburg universities, responsible for educating future generations. The research is based on young adults’ perception of the information provided by Channel One (Russian: Первый канал). This is the most influential and popular television channel controlled by the current government; therefore, it plays a significant role in spreading propaganda to shape the perception of the realm by domestic and foreign audiences alike. The authors conducted research in the years 2017-2019, employing the survey method to find out what is the effect of television-based propaganda type of information to manipulate the recipients. The research revealed that, although the Russian media strongly influences the study group, the respondents recognize the utilization of propaganda, which is founded on a one-sided narrative, and they are not easily manipulated. Moreover, the results presented that there is an interdependence between the favourable opinions about Channel One’s Vriemia news coverage and vulnerability to manipulation and propaganda techniques.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76547159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.450
Karsten Eisenschmidt, Joanna Krasodomska
Since the formation of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), the use of In-ternational Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has spread and they have become global standards for financial reporting. However, they are not used unanimously all over the world. This paper focuses on differences in countries’ approaches to IFRS. Our study aims to investi-gate the use of accounting policy choice for selected options in Europe with a particular focus on countries, industry and topic-specific firm factors. We analyze financial statements of 416 companies of the STOXX Europe 600 operating in 17 European countries. We use content analysis to identify the companies’ decisions to choose a particular option allowed under IFRS and run a logistic regression to identify potential factors that influence them. Our findings suggest that the factors under investigation do not always have a significant influence on the accounting option choice. However, the country variables seem to have a stronger influence than industry or topic variables. The study contributes to the body of literature mainly because it investigates a uniform European setting with the use of the 2017 data and it covers coun-tries not included in previous studies. Its results also provide a basis for discussion on the fi-nancial statements quality and the impact of IFRS across countries.
{"title":"The Use of Accounting Policy Options under IFRS in Europe: Do Country, Industry, and Topic Factors Matter?","authors":"Karsten Eisenschmidt, Joanna Krasodomska","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.450","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.450","url":null,"abstract":"Since the formation of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), the use of In-ternational Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has spread and they have become global standards for financial reporting. However, they are not used unanimously all over the world. This paper focuses on differences in countries’ approaches to IFRS. Our study aims to investi-gate the use of accounting policy choice for selected options in Europe with a particular focus on countries, industry and topic-specific firm factors. We analyze financial statements of 416 companies of the STOXX Europe 600 operating in 17 European countries. We use content analysis to identify the companies’ decisions to choose a particular option allowed under IFRS and run a logistic regression to identify potential factors that influence them. Our findings suggest that the factors under investigation do not always have a significant influence on the accounting option choice. However, the country variables seem to have a stronger influence than industry or topic variables. The study contributes to the body of literature mainly because it investigates a uniform European setting with the use of the 2017 data and it covers coun-tries not included in previous studies. Its results also provide a basis for discussion on the fi-nancial statements quality and the impact of IFRS across countries.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88787077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.447
D. Štreimikienė, V. Akberdina
Recent worldwide growing awareness of the global climate changes stressed the importance of developing and supporting the renewable energy sources (RES). However, the public support for RES varies across various countries and regions, especially those abundant in traditional fossil fuels. This paper presents the analysis of the public views of the economics of the renewable energy using the results of the online survey (N = 750) conducted in several regions of the Russian Federation, a country abundant in natural gas and oil. Our results indicate that there is a mixed opinion on trust in RES as opposed to the traditional energy sources. Even though we found some support for the renewable energy technologies, it appears that it is correlated with the respondents’ concerns about the environmental protection and sustainable development as well as with some demographic variables. The outcomes of the regression analysis confirmed that positive attitudes towards climate protection predetermined the support for various types of RES, while the financial or political gains did not come through as significant. The results indicate that public views on the renewable energy sources could and should be shaped by the information campaigns and presentations in mass media conducted by relevant policymakers and public authorities.
{"title":"Public Views of the Economy of the Renewable Energy Sources: Evidence from Russia","authors":"D. Štreimikienė, V. Akberdina","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.447","url":null,"abstract":"Recent worldwide growing awareness of the global climate changes stressed the importance of developing and supporting the renewable energy sources (RES). However, the public support for RES varies across various countries and regions, especially those abundant in traditional fossil fuels. This paper presents the analysis of the public views of the economics of the renewable energy using the results of the online survey (N = 750) conducted in several regions of the Russian Federation, a country abundant in natural gas and oil. Our results indicate that there is a mixed opinion on trust in RES as opposed to the traditional energy sources. Even though we found some support for the renewable energy technologies, it appears that it is correlated with the respondents’ concerns about the environmental protection and sustainable development as well as with some demographic variables. The outcomes of the regression analysis confirmed that positive attitudes towards climate protection predetermined the support for various types of RES, while the financial or political gains did not come through as significant. The results indicate that public views on the renewable energy sources could and should be shaped by the information campaigns and presentations in mass media conducted by relevant policymakers and public authorities.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86627180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.448
A. Babu
The relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment is intriguing. An important question arises - does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out domestic investment? This paper examines this nexus in the post-1991 period in India, which is also considered as the post-reform period. It is during this era; the above-mentioned topic gains more impetus as the economy opened up for further foreign inflows. The time period taken for the paper was from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The data series were checked for stationarity and the presence of long run relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment was analysed using cointegration test. Thereafter, the vector error correction model was estimated. The results clearly show that foreign direct investment crowds out domestic investment in India in the post reform period. The findings have significant policy implications because there is a substituting relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment in India.
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment - Domestic Investment Nexus: Evidence from India","authors":"A. Babu","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.448","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment is intriguing. An important question arises - does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out domestic investment? This paper examines this nexus in the post-1991 period in India, which is also considered as the post-reform period. It is during this era; the above-mentioned topic gains more impetus as the economy opened up for further foreign inflows. The time period taken for the paper was from 1990-91 to 2014-15. The data series were checked for stationarity and the presence of long run relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment was analysed using cointegration test. Thereafter, the vector error correction model was estimated. The results clearly show that foreign direct investment crowds out domestic investment in India in the post reform period. The findings have significant policy implications because there is a substituting relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic investment in India.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76364823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.454
A. Goettel
The main goal of this study is to assess whether, and if so, how the tax policy is implemented in Poland in relation to informal partnerships. The justification for conducting research in this area is the growing number of such relationships and the demands formulated by the public on the principles of taxation of cohabitants. The study analyzes not only taxes on natural persons, but also the provisions governing the principles of tax liability. The research shows that while pro-family tax policy is implemented on a fairly large scale in Poland, it does not apply to cohabitants. In principle, cohabitants do not have the right to any preferential taxation rules, above all tax reliefs and exemptions. Moreover, the analysis of the research material clearly indicates that staying in cohabitation can even aggravate the situation of a cohabitant under tax law (which can be seen perfectly well on the example of a cohabitant's liability for his partner's taxes). On the basis of a critical analysis of the Polish tax law provisions, the general thesis has been formulated that the situation of cohabitants is affected by deep asymmetry, because on the one hand the legislator uses cohabitation to improve the allocation of public revenues, but on the other hand it does not include cohabitants with pro-family tax policy (although cohabitation is very similar to marriage). The study includes certain demands on the legislator, thanks to which it is possible to cover cohabitants by pro-family tax policy.
{"title":"Concubinage in the Polish Tax Law","authors":"A. Goettel","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.454","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.454","url":null,"abstract":"The main goal of this study is to assess whether, and if so, how the tax policy is implemented in Poland in relation to informal partnerships. The justification for conducting research in this area is the growing number of such relationships and the demands formulated by the public on the principles of taxation of cohabitants. The study analyzes not only taxes on natural persons, but also the provisions governing the principles of tax liability. The research shows that while pro-family tax policy is implemented on a fairly large scale in Poland, it does not apply to cohabitants. In principle, cohabitants do not have the right to any preferential taxation rules, above all tax reliefs and exemptions. Moreover, the analysis of the research material clearly indicates that staying in cohabitation can even aggravate the situation of a cohabitant under tax law (which can be seen perfectly well on the example of a cohabitant's liability for his partner's taxes). On the basis of a critical analysis of the Polish tax law provisions, the general thesis has been formulated that the situation of cohabitants is affected by deep asymmetry, because on the one hand the legislator uses cohabitation to improve the allocation of public revenues, but on the other hand it does not include cohabitants with pro-family tax policy (although cohabitation is very similar to marriage). The study includes certain demands on the legislator, thanks to which it is possible to cover cohabitants by pro-family tax policy.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82316100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.449
Hanna Mysaka, I. Derun
Investor attracting and keeping requires both successful management of a company’s financial performance and an investor’s behavior knowledge, as well as monitoring of stock market current trends. This paper contains the study results on the influence of public companies’ financial performance on Tobin’s q as a common measure of investment opportunity for dividend (income) investors and growth investors in conditions of competition and financing limitations. The goal of this article is to identify the financial performance indicators of public companies, influencing their Tobin’s q, for dividend (income) investing and growth investing respectively. We determined that the proxies for the variables of the Tobin’s q function should be different for different investment styles. For this reason, we composed two sets of financial ratios that reflect financial performance specifics of dividend (income) stock companies and growth stock companies for the quantitative assessment of these investor types’ preferences. The analysis results led to the conclusion that a company can attract attention of dividend (income) investors by demonstrating higher levels of dividend payments. Whereas, growth investors are sensitive to the level of company’s business activities, which is related to its revenue. Based on the results of this study, we believe that investment decisions’ successfulness depends on the reliability of the issuer’s financial statements. In our conclusions, we suggest that public companies’ managers focus on the financial performance that best correlate with the preferences of certain type of investors, which is a promising way to attract and keep their investors.
{"title":"Corporate Financial Performance and Tobin’s Q in Dividend and Growth Investing","authors":"Hanna Mysaka, I. Derun","doi":"10.5709/ce.1897-9254.449","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.449","url":null,"abstract":"Investor attracting and keeping requires both successful management of a company’s financial performance and an investor’s behavior knowledge, as well as monitoring of stock market current trends. This paper contains the study results on the influence of public companies’ financial performance on Tobin’s q as a common measure of investment opportunity for dividend (income) investors and growth investors in conditions of competition and financing limitations. The goal of this article is to identify the financial performance indicators of public companies, influencing their Tobin’s q, for dividend (income) investing and growth investing respectively. We determined that the proxies for the variables of the Tobin’s q function should be different for different investment styles. For this reason, we composed two sets of financial ratios that reflect financial performance specifics of dividend (income) stock companies and growth stock companies for the quantitative assessment of these investor types’ preferences. The analysis results led to the conclusion that a company can attract attention of dividend (income) investors by demonstrating higher levels of dividend payments. Whereas, growth investors are sensitive to the level of company’s business activities, which is related to its revenue. Based on the results of this study, we believe that investment decisions’ successfulness depends on the reliability of the issuer’s financial statements. In our conclusions, we suggest that public companies’ managers focus on the financial performance that best correlate with the preferences of certain type of investors, which is a promising way to attract and keep their investors.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90538584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.5709/CE.1897-9254.444
Tahmina Akhter, Othman Yong
This paper examines the behavior of seasonal anomalies in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) of Bangladesh and whether the time varying nature of the anomalies is in line with Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). With this aim the research investigated whether the changes in market conditions, for example: up and down market states, stock market bubbles and crashes, initiation of automated trading system and circuit breaker system can affect the behavior of calendar anomalies and therefore, can provide justification for the seasonal patterns in DSE. To achieve the stated objectives, this study utilizes daily general index values of DSE from 1993 to 2018, with GARCH (1,1) model, Markov switching model, subsample analysis and rolling window analysis. The findings support the existence of AMH at DSE in the form of time-varying nature of seasonal anomalies. However, not all seasonal anomalies examined in the study were found to grow weaker over time. The most important finding of this study is that the investors in emerging stock markets, for example DSE, may not learn from the past investment experiences and show the adapting ability towards changed market conditions in the same manner like the investors in a developed market.
{"title":"Can Adaptive Market Hypothesis Explain the Existence of Seasonal Anomalies? Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange, Bangladesh","authors":"Tahmina Akhter, Othman Yong","doi":"10.5709/CE.1897-9254.444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/CE.1897-9254.444","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the behavior of seasonal anomalies in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) of Bangladesh and whether the time varying nature of the anomalies is in line with Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). With this aim the research investigated whether the changes in market conditions, for example: up and down market states, stock market bubbles and crashes, initiation of automated trading system and circuit breaker system can affect the behavior of calendar anomalies and therefore, can provide justification for the seasonal patterns in DSE. To achieve the stated objectives, this study utilizes daily general index values of DSE from 1993 to 2018, with GARCH (1,1) model, Markov switching model, subsample analysis and rolling window analysis. The findings support the existence of AMH at DSE in the form of time-varying nature of seasonal anomalies. However, not all seasonal anomalies examined in the study were found to grow weaker over time. The most important finding of this study is that the investors in emerging stock markets, for example DSE, may not learn from the past investment experiences and show the adapting ability towards changed market conditions in the same manner like the investors in a developed market.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":"198-223"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88346439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.5709/CE.1897-9254.445
Etleva Bajrami
In Albania, most businesses are classified as SMEs and their importance in the economy has grown exponentially in recent years. As SMEs comprise the majority of businesses, their taxes are crucial for the state budget. The purpose of this paper is to understand the SMEs’ attitude toward tax compliance. The objective of this research is to assess tax knowledge of SMEs as a precondition for tax compliance. Tax noncompliance has been a prevalent issue, and the tax authorities have undertaken a reform in this regard. This paper aims to understand the current situation regarding tax compliance. The current study is based on questionnaires distributed to 348 SMEs. Businesses responded to questions related to the recognition of taxes, duties and procedures. SMEs are separated in two groups, small and medium by annual turnover, in order to achieve the most accurate survey results. The results of the questions were not always the same for both groups. There are more small businesses that are not familiar with taxes, duties and tax procedures, resulting in conclusion that medium businesses are more tax compliant than small businesses. Tax authorities need to know the situation of SMEs, get their opinions on taxes and duties and take them into consideration.
{"title":"Recognition of Taxes and Implementation of Tax Procedures by SMEs in Albania","authors":"Etleva Bajrami","doi":"10.5709/CE.1897-9254.445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/CE.1897-9254.445","url":null,"abstract":"In Albania, most businesses are classified as SMEs and their importance in the economy has grown exponentially in recent years. As SMEs comprise the majority of businesses, their taxes are crucial for the state budget. The purpose of this paper is to understand the SMEs’ attitude toward tax compliance. The objective of this research is to assess tax knowledge of SMEs as a precondition for tax compliance. Tax noncompliance has been a prevalent issue, and the tax authorities have undertaken a reform in this regard. This paper aims to understand the current situation regarding tax compliance. The current study is based on questionnaires distributed to 348 SMEs. Businesses responded to questions related to the recognition of taxes, duties and procedures. SMEs are separated in two groups, small and medium by annual turnover, in order to achieve the most accurate survey results. The results of the questions were not always the same for both groups. There are more small businesses that are not familiar with taxes, duties and tax procedures, resulting in conclusion that medium businesses are more tax compliant than small businesses. Tax authorities need to know the situation of SMEs, get their opinions on taxes and duties and take them into consideration.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"82 1","pages":"224-239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86524766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-30DOI: 10.5709/CE.1897-9254.443
Carole Ibrahim
Lebanese public debt has been accumulating since 1990, after the end of the civil war. Recently, concerns about the ability of the government to keep servicing its debt have emerged, particularly because the debt-to-GDP ratio reached almost 147% at the end of 2018. This study aims to examine whether a cointegrating relationship exists among primary fiscal performance, real economic growth, and public debt in Lebanon using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model between 2000 and 2018. The ARDL results suggest the non-existence of a cointegrating relationship and hence the unsustainability of the Lebanese public debt. The evidence of the short-run estimation indicates that better primary fiscal performance and a higher economic growth rate reduce Lebanese public debt in the short run. This study proposes that immediate reforms that increase the primary fiscal surplus and attract investors are crucial to prevent a debt crisis in the country.
{"title":"Primary Fiscal Performance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt in Lebanon","authors":"Carole Ibrahim","doi":"10.5709/CE.1897-9254.443","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5709/CE.1897-9254.443","url":null,"abstract":"Lebanese public debt has been accumulating since 1990, after the end of the civil war. Recently, concerns about the ability of the government to keep servicing its debt have emerged, particularly because the debt-to-GDP ratio reached almost 147% at the end of 2018. This study aims to examine whether a cointegrating relationship exists among primary fiscal performance, real economic growth, and public debt in Lebanon using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model between 2000 and 2018. The ARDL results suggest the non-existence of a cointegrating relationship and hence the unsustainability of the Lebanese public debt. The evidence of the short-run estimation indicates that better primary fiscal performance and a higher economic growth rate reduce Lebanese public debt in the short run. This study proposes that immediate reforms that increase the primary fiscal surplus and attract investors are crucial to prevent a debt crisis in the country.","PeriodicalId":44824,"journal":{"name":"Contemporary Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":"187-197"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81584909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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