This study compares the European country groups using economic, financial and health indicators in 2000 and 2015. The “Core” European Union (EU) countries, which are the main progenitors of the deterioration processes within the EU, have changed their cluster memberships from higher-order clusters to lower-order ones. Deposits in banks (assets) to GDP (%) and inflation at consumer prices (annual %) have played a leading role in the formation of EU country groups for 2000 and 2015. The study emphasized the importance of political cohesion and financial stance to mitigate European countries’ financial risks and welfare states.
{"title":"The changing pattern of European country groups: Economic, financial, and health indicators, 2000–2015","authors":"","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00042","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study compares the European country groups using economic, financial and health indicators in 2000 and 2015. The “Core” European Union (EU) countries, which are the main progenitors of the deterioration processes within the EU, have changed their cluster memberships from higher-order clusters to lower-order ones. Deposits in banks (assets) to GDP (%) and inflation at consumer prices (annual %) have played a leading role in the formation of EU country groups for 2000 and 2015. The study emphasized the importance of political cohesion and financial stance to mitigate European countries’ financial risks and welfare states.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45852981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impacts of potential determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey through Markov Regime Switching-Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) estimations from 1999 to 2017 on monthly data. The determinants are income level, exchange rates and the threat of terror incidences. The terror variable, following the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 report, is calculated for Turkey by the author. This research has conducted two separate MS-VAR models to observe the relevant parameters’ signs of the demand for tourism function. Both MS-VAR models revealed that income level and exchange rates have positive influences on tourism while the terror threat has a negative impact on tourism in Turkey. Terror adversely affects the demand for tourism in the short-term in which terror has occurred in the nearest past (i.e., a month ago). The MS-VAR models also yield that a similar negative impact of terror on tourism activities does not appear over the longer periods.
{"title":"The determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey: Does terror-threat matter? A Markov Regime Switching-VAR approach","authors":"","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00041","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper investigates the impacts of potential determinants of demand for tourism in Turkey through Markov Regime Switching-Vector Auto Regression (MS-VAR) estimations from 1999 to 2017 on monthly data. The determinants are income level, exchange rates and the threat of terror incidences. The terror variable, following the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2017 report, is calculated for Turkey by the author. This research has conducted two separate MS-VAR models to observe the relevant parameters’ signs of the demand for tourism function. Both MS-VAR models revealed that income level and exchange rates have positive influences on tourism while the terror threat has a negative impact on tourism in Turkey. Terror adversely affects the demand for tourism in the short-term in which terror has occurred in the nearest past (i.e., a month ago). The MS-VAR models also yield that a similar negative impact of terror on tourism activities does not appear over the longer periods.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42228347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Researchers and practitioners alike have long debated the role of high GDP growth strategies and social expenditures (SE) in ensuring a better distribution of income and reduction of poverty. This study is aimed at investigating the effectiveness of social expenditures by offering the use of a robust methodology. Our sample consists of 27 EU countries (further divided into pre- and post-2000 members) between 2005 and 2017. We used panel data to determine whether social expenditures have a positive effect on the World Bank generated Human Development Index (HDI).
{"title":"The effect of social expenditures on human development in the European Union","authors":"","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00043","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Researchers and practitioners alike have long debated the role of high GDP growth strategies and social expenditures (SE) in ensuring a better distribution of income and reduction of poverty. This study is aimed at investigating the effectiveness of social expenditures by offering the use of a robust methodology. Our sample consists of 27 EU countries (further divided into pre- and post-2000 members) between 2005 and 2017. We used panel data to determine whether social expenditures have a positive effect on the World Bank generated Human Development Index (HDI).","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43481583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The enlargement of the euro area (EA), an unfinished process, was low on the European agenda in the period between the 2008 and the 2020 crises. The socio-economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and frictions in geopolitics would call for a coherent Europe, yet new and old fault-lines appeared in the EU involving the eastern periphery where sovereignty issues gained particular importance. The authors revisit the euro adoption process of the new member states, with a focus on the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, applying a two-track approach: a monetary policy analyses of EA entry as a rational cost/benefit issue and, second, a political economic survey of key stakeholders, set in the context of the dilemmas of retaining or sacrificing nominal monetary sovereignty. Even a piecemeal enlargement of the EA, involving Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, would cause business consequences and political repercussions in the countries left out of EA. The paper concludes that further moves towards a developmental state model would preclude euro adoption and put such member state in collision course with the core Europe.
{"title":"Varieties of euro adoption strategies in Visegrad countries before the pandemic crisis","authors":"P. Bod, O. Pócsik, G. Neszmélyi","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The enlargement of the euro area (EA), an unfinished process, was low on the European agenda in the period between the 2008 and the 2020 crises. The socio-economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and frictions in geopolitics would call for a coherent Europe, yet new and old fault-lines appeared in the EU involving the eastern periphery where sovereignty issues gained particular importance. The authors revisit the euro adoption process of the new member states, with a focus on the Visegrad Group (V4) countries, applying a two-track approach: a monetary policy analyses of EA entry as a rational cost/benefit issue and, second, a political economic survey of key stakeholders, set in the context of the dilemmas of retaining or sacrificing nominal monetary sovereignty. Even a piecemeal enlargement of the EA, involving Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania, would cause business consequences and political repercussions in the countries left out of EA. The paper concludes that further moves towards a developmental state model would preclude euro adoption and put such member state in collision course with the core Europe.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47043699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In order for monetary policy’s interest rate channel to operate smoothly and effectively, the relevant retail interest rates of the real economy should react quickly and follow the movements of the prime rate. It has been observed that this connection has weakened since the financial crisis and it was suggested that the so called Weighted Average Cost of Liabilities (WACL) might be a better proxy for the banks’ marginal costs than the prime rate or interbank rate. In this study the WACL for Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania is calculated by applying cointegration tests and ARDL models. I examined whether their long-run relationships with the retail loan rates are more stable. Results: 1. Using the WACL instead of the interbank rate yields slightly more stable long-term relationships with the retail loan rates, and the WACL has been proved to be somewhat more stable than the interbank rate. 2. The interest rate pass-through has been efficient for the household loan rates in all three countries, but only in Romania for the corporate loan rates. 3. The results suggest that the central banks can effectively influence the commercial banks’ financing costs even in a low interest rate environment, although this cost represents only one component of the loan rates, and the movements of other components can offset the changes of the prime rate.
{"title":"Effects of the financial crisis and low interest rate environment on interest rate pass-through in Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania","authors":"Anos Zoltan Varga","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00039","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In order for monetary policy’s interest rate channel to operate smoothly and effectively, the relevant retail interest rates of the real economy should react quickly and follow the movements of the prime rate. It has been observed that this connection has weakened since the financial crisis and it was suggested that the so called Weighted Average Cost of Liabilities (WACL) might be a better proxy for the banks’ marginal costs than the prime rate or interbank rate. In this study the WACL for Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania is calculated by applying cointegration tests and ARDL models. I examined whether their long-run relationships with the retail loan rates are more stable. Results: 1. Using the WACL instead of the interbank rate yields slightly more stable long-term relationships with the retail loan rates, and the WACL has been proved to be somewhat more stable than the interbank rate. 2. The interest rate pass-through has been efficient for the household loan rates in all three countries, but only in Romania for the corporate loan rates. 3. The results suggest that the central banks can effectively influence the commercial banks’ financing costs even in a low interest rate environment, although this cost represents only one component of the loan rates, and the movements of other components can offset the changes of the prime rate.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42391605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The financing of young start-up companies is hindered by market failures that prompt governments around the world to intervene at the venture capital market. The aim of this paper is to give a comprehensive overview on this research field based on sound systematic literature review methodology, which was never done before. We found three major themes: pure governmental venture capital involvement, governmental-private venture capital cooperation, and governmental involvement in the financing of pre-seed startups. The evaluation of the governmental efforts varies according to these themes and also the investigated geographic location. Generally, pure governmental venture capital is the most controversial theme, the government-private cooperation is mostly viewed in a positive light, while the authors almost unanimously praise the government’s efforts when financing pre-seed startups. We found that the success of governmental venture capital should not be judged based on the realized return of its investments, since profit maximalization is not its goal. The governments try to alleviate market failures at the venture capital market and transition financed startup companies to private financing. Thus, we advise researchers to use the number of this type of successful transitions as the success criteria of governmental investments.
{"title":"Venture capital and government involvement from a qualitative systematic literature review perspective","authors":"Erika J Aki","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00044","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The financing of young start-up companies is hindered by market failures that prompt governments around the world to intervene at the venture capital market. The aim of this paper is to give a comprehensive overview on this research field based on sound systematic literature review methodology, which was never done before. We found three major themes: pure governmental venture capital involvement, governmental-private venture capital cooperation, and governmental involvement in the financing of pre-seed startups. The evaluation of the governmental efforts varies according to these themes and also the investigated geographic location. Generally, pure governmental venture capital is the most controversial theme, the government-private cooperation is mostly viewed in a positive light, while the authors almost unanimously praise the government’s efforts when financing pre-seed startups. We found that the success of governmental venture capital should not be judged based on the realized return of its investments, since profit maximalization is not its goal. The governments try to alleviate market failures at the venture capital market and transition financed startup companies to private financing. Thus, we advise researchers to use the number of this type of successful transitions as the success criteria of governmental investments.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42784097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyses the effectiveness of government incentives on household savings in Hungary prior to the Covid pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil. Time series pertaining to life insurance, voluntary pension savings, and long-term and short-term government bonds are tested in relation to government incentives. The novelty of this study is the test on complex mix of policy incentives and saving funds. The analysis applies the multiple breakpoint test and OLS regression, based on the behavioural life cycle hypothesis. The conclusion is that in the analysed time period the government incentives had a significant effect and promoted savings behaviour, with the exception of short-term government bonds.
{"title":"The assessment of government incentives on savings, Hungary 2006–2019","authors":"V. Czeczeli, G. Kutasi, E. Szabó","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00040","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study analyses the effectiveness of government incentives on household savings in Hungary prior to the Covid pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil. Time series pertaining to life insurance, voluntary pension savings, and long-term and short-term government bonds are tested in relation to government incentives. The novelty of this study is the test on complex mix of policy incentives and saving funds. The analysis applies the multiple breakpoint test and OLS regression, based on the behavioural life cycle hypothesis. The conclusion is that in the analysed time period the government incentives had a significant effect and promoted savings behaviour, with the exception of short-term government bonds.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45933175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
János Kornai, the most distinguished Hungarian economist passed away on 18 October 2021. This short essay, written by a long-time disciple of Kornai tries to prioritize his scientific achievements spreading over six decades. The conclusion is that Kornai's most important contribution to the principles of economics was already presented in his 1971 book, entitled Anti-equilibrium, and without this book his most respected later works and his other original concepts, like the soft budget constraint or the shortage economy, cannot be understood.
{"title":"Professional and ethical dilemmas of economists (In memoriam János Kornai, 1928–2021)","authors":"P. Eter, Mih Alyi","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00037","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 János Kornai, the most distinguished Hungarian economist passed away on 18 October 2021. This short essay, written by a long-time disciple of Kornai tries to prioritize his scientific achievements spreading over six decades. The conclusion is that Kornai's most important contribution to the principles of economics was already presented in his 1971 book, entitled Anti-equilibrium, and without this book his most respected later works and his other original concepts, like the soft budget constraint or the shortage economy, cannot be understood.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49278456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper analyses the differences of COVID-19 mortality rates (MR) in 24 European countries. We explain MRs on the available, reliable ex-ante economic, health and social indicators pertaining to the year 2019 – i.e., before the outbreak of the pandemic. Using simple regression equations, we received statistically significant results for 11 such variables out of 28 attempts. Our best model with two ex-ante independent variables explains 0.76 of the variability of our ex-post dependent variable, the logarithm of Cumulative COVID Deaths. The estimated coefficient for the variable Density of Nurses shows that having one more nurse per 1,000 of population decreases cumulative COVID deaths by almost 15%. Similarly, one more unit Consumption of Non-Prescribed Medicine decreases cumulative deaths by 5%. It seems that until now those European countries were successful in minimising the fatalities where the population had a high level of health literacy, people pursue healthier lifestyle and the healthcare systems worked with a relatively large nursing force already prior to the COVID pandemic.
{"title":"The predictability of COVID-19 mortality rates based on ex-ante economic, health and social indicators","authors":"E. Kovacs, P. Mihályi","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00029","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The paper analyses the differences of COVID-19 mortality rates (MR) in 24 European countries. We explain MRs on the available, reliable ex-ante economic, health and social indicators pertaining to the year 2019 – i.e., before the outbreak of the pandemic. Using simple regression equations, we received statistically significant results for 11 such variables out of 28 attempts. Our best model with two ex-ante independent variables explains 0.76 of the variability of our ex-post dependent variable, the logarithm of Cumulative COVID Deaths. The estimated coefficient for the variable Density of Nurses shows that having one more nurse per 1,000 of population decreases cumulative COVID deaths by almost 15%. Similarly, one more unit Consumption of Non-Prescribed Medicine decreases cumulative deaths by 5%. It seems that until now those European countries were successful in minimising the fatalities where the population had a high level of health literacy, people pursue healthier lifestyle and the healthcare systems worked with a relatively large nursing force already prior to the COVID pandemic.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41660008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Relying on the Labour Force Survey and the monthly revenue statistics of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, we assess the immediate economic impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first two quarters of 2020. We first analyse the role of job loss, working time reduction, downtime, and telework in adjustment to the crisis. The findings reveal an even more serious setback and increase in inequality than in 2008–2009. School leavers, young workers and unskilled laborers were particularly severely affected. Graduates were less likely to lose their jobs, more likely to switch to telework, and their employers faced a smaller decrease in sales revenue. The revenues of foreign-owned exporters fell more than the average in March but recovered by June. The decline experienced by businesses in the Hungarian ownership was slower but more prolonged.
{"title":"The impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and firm revenues in Hungary","authors":"J. Anos, Azs Reizer","doi":"10.1556/032.2021.00031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1556/032.2021.00031","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Relying on the Labour Force Survey and the monthly revenue statistics of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, we assess the immediate economic impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first two quarters of 2020. We first analyse the role of job loss, working time reduction, downtime, and telework in adjustment to the crisis. The findings reveal an even more serious setback and increase in inequality than in 2008–2009. School leavers, young workers and unskilled laborers were particularly severely affected. Graduates were less likely to lose their jobs, more likely to switch to telework, and their employers faced a smaller decrease in sales revenue. The revenues of foreign-owned exporters fell more than the average in March but recovered by June. The decline experienced by businesses in the Hungarian ownership was slower but more prolonged.","PeriodicalId":45104,"journal":{"name":"Acta Oeconomica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44680528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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