The paper deals with initiation and destiny of the unique 1994 Program of combating the extreme Serbian hyperinflation. Despite the originality of the Program and decisiveness with which the related steps had been undertaken, the Program lasted not much more than half a year. It turned out to be unsustainable as it is collided with inefficient institutional framework where contracts and rule of law were not honored, and employees, in self-managed firms, decided on their own remuneration. We show that for lasting stabilization a farreaching institutional reform was needed, and for implementing such reform an equally radical reform of the political system was necessary. However, there was not political will for these reforms, since they would oust the then political and economic elite from the power.
{"title":"Political economy of economic policy - the monetary reconstruction program (Serbia 1994) as a case study","authors":"Ljubomir Madžar","doi":"10.2298/pan2202157m","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202157m","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with initiation and destiny of the unique 1994 Program of combating the extreme Serbian hyperinflation. Despite the originality of the Program and decisiveness with which the related steps had been undertaken, the Program lasted not much more than half a year. It turned out to be unsustainable as it is collided with inefficient institutional framework where contracts and rule of law were not honored, and employees, in self-managed firms, decided on their own remuneration. We show that for lasting stabilization a farreaching institutional reform was needed, and for implementing such reform an equally radical reform of the political system was necessary. However, there was not political will for these reforms, since they would oust the then political and economic elite from the power.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper focuses on international tax proposals and analyzes rationales and challenges for adopting a compound global tax. It is proposed here that such a compound global tax instrument would mainly need to focus on two tiers. The one, based on the U.S. President Joe Biden?s 2021 suggestion, would need to close off tax avoidance and tax evasion possibilities for large multinational and transnational corporations; and the other, based on the James Tobin?s 1972-tax proposal, would seek to eliminate the speculative dimension of international foreign exchange dealings. These tiers are discussed extensively in this contribution, concluding with the suggestion that policy coordination is paramount.
{"title":"A compound Tobin tax: A political economy investigation","authors":"P. Arestis, N. Karagiannis","doi":"10.2298/pan211204013a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan211204013a","url":null,"abstract":"The paper focuses on international tax proposals and analyzes rationales and challenges for adopting a compound global tax. It is proposed here that such a compound global tax instrument would mainly need to focus on two tiers. The one, based on the U.S. President Joe Biden?s 2021 suggestion, would need to close off tax avoidance and tax evasion possibilities for large multinational and transnational corporations; and the other, based on the James Tobin?s 1972-tax proposal, would seek to eliminate the speculative dimension of international foreign exchange dealings. These tiers are discussed extensively in this contribution, concluding with the suggestion that policy coordination is paramount.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using recently developed right-tailed sequential unit root tests at daily frequency in the extreme portion of the Serbian hyperinflation, we found that the money supply and the exchange rate exploded while the economy was approaching the maximum of the inflation tax Laffer curve, and remained explosive while on the wrong, decreasing side of that curve throughout the end of the hyperinflation. Money supply exploded as government tried first to raise seigniorage to a new higher plateau, and subsequently to prevent, albeit unsuccessfully, a decline in seigniorage while the economy was sliding down the decreasing side of the Laffer curve. The rational bubble was not found as the exchange rate explosiveness was driven by the explosiveness of its fundamental value: current and expected future money supply. Thus, even the extreme portion of the Serbian hyperinflation was driven by ever expanding money supply in the government quest for additional seigniorage and not by the rational bubbles.
{"title":"Explosive behavior and rational bubbles: Evidence from the Serbian hyperinflation at daily frequency","authors":"P. Petrović, Zorica Mladenović","doi":"10.2298/pan2203481p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2203481p","url":null,"abstract":"Using recently developed right-tailed sequential unit root tests at daily frequency in the extreme portion of the Serbian hyperinflation, we found that the money supply and the exchange rate exploded while the economy was approaching the maximum of the inflation tax Laffer curve, and remained explosive while on the wrong, decreasing side of that curve throughout the end of the hyperinflation. Money supply exploded as government tried first to raise seigniorage to a new higher plateau, and subsequently to prevent, albeit unsuccessfully, a decline in seigniorage while the economy was sliding down the decreasing side of the Laffer curve. The rational bubble was not found as the exchange rate explosiveness was driven by the explosiveness of its fundamental value: current and expected future money supply. Thus, even the extreme portion of the Serbian hyperinflation was driven by ever expanding money supply in the government quest for additional seigniorage and not by the rational bubbles.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The attribution of causality, a central concept in human cognition theory, is the principal instrument for investigating functional links between events and phenomena. Although the links between causality and moral responsibility are commonly recognized, the scope of studies analysing the practical implications of causality attribution is minimal. This study examines the effect of causality perception on the desired distribution of the generic means of life by utilising thought experiment data collection methodology and non-parametric statistical analysis. The results indicate that i) causality perception affects the desired distribution, and ii) individuals show no tendency to modify their perception of causality.
{"title":"The attribution of causality, perception of responsibility, and preferred generic means of life distribution","authors":"Iana Okhrimenko","doi":"10.2298/pan210801018o","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan210801018o","url":null,"abstract":"The attribution of causality, a central concept in human cognition theory, is the principal instrument for investigating functional links between events and phenomena. Although the links between causality and moral responsibility are commonly recognized, the scope of studies analysing the practical implications of causality attribution is minimal. This study examines the effect of causality perception on the desired distribution of the generic means of life by utilising thought experiment data collection methodology and non-parametric statistical analysis. The results indicate that i) causality perception affects the desired distribution, and ii) individuals show no tendency to modify their perception of causality.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we consider a triangular inter-dependence between hyperinflation, financial repression, and the financial crisis in FRY in the 1990s. When all three vertices of the triangle are present, the crisis propagates and is amplified along its edges. We focus, especially, on the less studied link between the financial crisis and financial repression in FRY. Setting administrative limits on interest rates under conditions of hyperinflation leads to deeply negative real interest rates. The situation in FRY was further aggravated by credit allocation to privileged participants. Under such circumstances, all dinar components of bank balance sheets quickly became worthless, credit activities of banks died down and real quantities of dinars in circulation became negligible. The situation improved only after the removal of the outside repression (i.e. removal of sanctions), reorganization of the entire financial sector and the entrance of foreign banks into the Serbian market at the beginning of 2000s.
{"title":"Hyperinflation and banks","authors":"B. Urosevic, Bosko Zikovic, N. Vasiljević","doi":"10.2298/pan2202283u","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202283u","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we consider a triangular inter-dependence between hyperinflation, financial repression, and the financial crisis in FRY in the 1990s. When all three vertices of the triangle are present, the crisis propagates and is amplified along its edges. We focus, especially, on the less studied link between the financial crisis and financial repression in FRY. Setting administrative limits on interest rates under conditions of hyperinflation leads to deeply negative real interest rates. The situation in FRY was further aggravated by credit allocation to privileged participants. Under such circumstances, all dinar components of bank balance sheets quickly became worthless, credit activities of banks died down and real quantities of dinars in circulation became negligible. The situation improved only after the removal of the outside repression (i.e. removal of sanctions), reorganization of the entire financial sector and the entrance of foreign banks into the Serbian market at the beginning of 2000s.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims to study the effect of a Turkish policy reform enacted in 2008 that requires firms to hire disabled applicants. Our attention is only on males to avoid complications arising from gender differences in disability and labor force participation. The data is from the Turkey Health Survey (THS) of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) for the years 2008 and 2012. We define “disability” as an impairment of long-term health conditions that lasts more than six months and that restricts the individual in daily activities. We use difference-in-difference (DD) estimation, in which the DD estimator is the difference between disabled and non-disabled individuals in the difference in labor force participation before and after the new policy. The results suggest an insignificant effect of the treatment on the treated, implying that the policy reform does not create any incentive for disabled males to participate in the labor force. Keywords: Disability, Labor force participation, Difference-in-difference. JEL: I12, J21, J24, C31, C34
{"title":"Impact of Turkish policy reform on labor force status of disabled males: A difference-in-difference analysis","authors":"Burcu Düzgün-Öncel, D. Karaoğlan","doi":"10.2298/PAN170208005D","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN170208005D","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to study the effect of a Turkish policy reform enacted in 2008 that requires firms to hire disabled applicants. Our attention is only on males to avoid complications arising from gender differences in disability and labor force participation. The data is from the Turkey Health Survey (THS) of the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) for the years 2008 and 2012. We define “disability” as an impairment of long-term health conditions that lasts more than six months and that restricts the individual in daily activities. We use difference-in-difference (DD) estimation, in which the DD estimator is the difference between disabled and non-disabled individuals in the difference in labor force participation before and after the new policy. The results suggest an insignificant effect of the treatment on the treated, implying that the policy reform does not create any incentive for disabled males to participate in the labor force. \u0000Keywords: Disability, Labor force participation, Difference-in-difference. \u0000JEL: I12, J21, J24, C31, C34","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":"1-18"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44227247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper provides insight into the relationship between foreign and domestic investment, and its effect on income distribution in the post-communist EU member states. The analysis is conducted using the general method of moment (GMM) estimator on panel data of the 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) new member states from 1993-2017. The results reveal that a greater level of foreign direct investments (FDI) contributed to eliminating the negative effects of domestic investment on income distribution, particularly mass layoffs and the transfer of wealth into the hands of a small economic and political elite. It leads to the conclusion that FDI has played a significant role in reducing income inequality and rebuilding the middle class in the post-communist EU member states.
{"title":"Distributional effects of foreign versus domestic investment: Evidence from post-communist EU member states","authors":"Kosta Josifidis, Novica Supic, S. Bodor","doi":"10.2298/PAN2102187J","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN2102187J","url":null,"abstract":"The paper provides insight into the relationship between foreign and domestic\u0000 investment, and its effect on income distribution in the post-communist EU\u0000 member states. The analysis is conducted using the general method of moment\u0000 (GMM) estimator on panel data of the 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE)\u0000 new member states from 1993-2017. The results reveal that a greater level of\u0000 foreign direct investments (FDI) contributed to eliminating the negative\u0000 effects of domestic investment on income distribution, particularly mass\u0000 layoffs and the transfer of wealth into the hands of a small economic and\u0000 political elite. It leads to the conclusion that FDI has played a\u0000 significant role in reducing income inequality and rebuilding the middle\u0000 class in the post-communist EU member states.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48970153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses the role played by the flexibilization of labour markets on functional income distribution. Specifically, we analyse whether employment protection legislation affects the evolution of labour income share, measured by the size of compensation of employees as a percentage of GDP, the sum of wages and salaries as a percentage of GDP and the size of the adjusted wage share, in twenty European economies. Our study?s results show that the evolution of labour income share is explained by the economic growth, the growth of employment and unemployment rates, and the growth of real wages. Regarding the role played by the flexibility of the labour market, and specifically of the employment protection legislation, only employment protection for temporary workers has a significant impact on the evolution of labour shares. Our results show that stricter provisions on the use of fixed-term and temporary agency contracts have a positive impact on the growth of labour shares.
{"title":"Labour market flexibilization and income distribution in Europe","authors":"P. Arestis, Jesus Ferreiro, Carmen Gomez","doi":"10.2298/PAN2102167A","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN2102167A","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the role played by the flexibilization of labour markets\u0000 on functional income distribution. Specifically, we analyse whether\u0000 employment protection legislation affects the evolution of labour income\u0000 share, measured by the size of compensation of employees as a percentage of\u0000 GDP, the sum of wages and salaries as a percentage of GDP and the size of\u0000 the adjusted wage share, in twenty European economies. Our study?s results\u0000 show that the evolution of labour income share is explained by the economic\u0000 growth, the growth of employment and unemployment rates, and the growth of\u0000 real wages. Regarding the role played by the flexibility of the labour\u0000 market, and specifically of the employment protection legislation, only\u0000 employment protection for temporary workers has a significant impact on the\u0000 evolution of labour shares. Our results show that stricter provisions on the\u0000 use of fixed-term and temporary agency contracts have a positive impact on\u0000 the growth of labour shares.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45658781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After the breakup of former Yugoslavia Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia followed different income tax reform trajectories that could explain currently different levels of income inequality in these countries. Our paper analyzes redistributive effects of introducing progressive tax systems, like the ones currently implemented in Slovenia and Croatia, in the Serbian context. Using microsimulation modeling and Survey on Income and Living Conditions data for 2017 our results suggest that implementation of both Croatian and Slovenian tax system would yield lower levels of income inequality and poverty if applied in Serbia. Slovenian system achieves larger decrease in inequality due to higher tax burden on the top incomes and brings significant increase in tax revenues. Croatian tax schedule achieves stronger decrease in poverty as more generous personal allowance exempt higher portions of low incomes from labour taxes.
{"title":"Tax reforms and income inequality in former Yugoslav countries: Escaping the avant-garde neoliberalism in the income tax policy","authors":"Jelena Žarković-Rakić, Marko Vladisavljević","doi":"10.2298/PAN2102231Z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN2102231Z","url":null,"abstract":"After the breakup of former Yugoslavia Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia followed\u0000 different income tax reform trajectories that could explain currently\u0000 different levels of income inequality in these countries. Our paper analyzes\u0000 redistributive effects of introducing progressive tax systems, like the ones\u0000 currently implemented in Slovenia and Croatia, in the Serbian context. Using\u0000 microsimulation modeling and Survey on Income and Living Conditions data for\u0000 2017 our results suggest that implementation of both Croatian and Slovenian\u0000 tax system would yield lower levels of income inequality and poverty if\u0000 applied in Serbia. Slovenian system achieves larger decrease in inequality\u0000 due to higher tax burden on the top incomes and brings significant increase\u0000 in tax revenues. Croatian tax schedule achieves stronger decrease in poverty\u0000 as more generous personal allowance exempt higher portions of low incomes\u0000 from labour taxes.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41920520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article outlines principles of a modernised macroeconomic framework, drawing on John Maynard Keynes. It explores the historical context in which Keynes? economic theory arose, and the history of its application and subsequent replacement by neoclassical economics. The article argues that any updated Keynesian programme must address three new problems: globalization, wealth inequality and climate change. It sketches out the ways in which these might be addressed.
{"title":"Keynes: The second coming?","authors":"R. Skidelsky","doi":"10.2298/PAN2102159S","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN2102159S","url":null,"abstract":"This article outlines principles of a modernised macroeconomic framework,\u0000 drawing on John Maynard Keynes. It explores the historical context in which\u0000 Keynes? economic theory arose, and the history of its application and\u0000 subsequent replacement by neoclassical economics. The article argues that\u0000 any updated Keynesian programme must address three new problems:\u0000 globalization, wealth inequality and climate change. It sketches out the\u0000 ways in which these might be addressed.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46512772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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