The main objective of this study was to investigate whether the intra-industrial trade structure of the Turkish fisheries sector has been affected by global climate change. Therefore, the surface temperatures of the Black Sea, Marmara, Mediteranean and Aegean seas and the Grubel-Lloyd index values related to the sector for the period 1985-2017 were used as variables in the study. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the cointegration relationship between variables and to predict long-term coefficients. The Error Correction Model (ECM) method was used to determine the short-term coefficients. According to the results of the analyses; i) There is a long-term relationship between the variables. ii) Increases in the surface temperature of the Aegean, Mediterranean and Marmara seas have reduced intra-industrial trade in the long term. iii) The increase in the Black Sea surface temperature has increased intra-industry trade in the long term. iv) The increase in sea surface temperatures has shown a tendency to increase intra-industry trade from the southern seas towards the northern seas in Turkey. Consequently, global climate change can be considered as a change in intra-industry trade for both the country and the industry.
{"title":"Is global climate change affecting intra-industry trade? Econometric evidence for the fisheries sector in Turkey","authors":"A. Tayyar","doi":"10.2298/pan200830003t","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan200830003t","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of this study was to investigate whether the intra-industrial trade structure of the Turkish fisheries sector has been affected by global climate change. Therefore, the surface temperatures of the Black Sea, Marmara, Mediteranean and Aegean seas and the Grubel-Lloyd index values related to the sector for the period 1985-2017 were used as variables in the study. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the cointegration relationship between variables and to predict long-term coefficients. The Error Correction Model (ECM) method was used to determine the short-term coefficients. According to the results of the analyses; i) There is a long-term relationship between the variables. ii) Increases in the surface temperature of the Aegean, Mediterranean and Marmara seas have reduced intra-industrial trade in the long term. iii) The increase in the Black Sea surface temperature has increased intra-industry trade in the long term. iv) The increase in sea surface temperatures has shown a tendency to increase intra-industry trade from the southern seas towards the northern seas in Turkey. Consequently, global climate change can be considered as a change in intra-industry trade for both the country and the industry.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dragoslav Avramovic was one of most accomplished economists in the area of applied development policy. He came from a small country with limited exposure to western economics, and made a stellar career at the World Bank and the Brandt Commission. His main achievements include: (i) A novel approach to external debt management based on dynamic assessment of indebtedness and borrowing capacity. It differed from standard debt-to-GDP ratio approach since it evaluated the efficiency and effectiveness of borrowed resources. (ii) Model for reducing volatility of commodity prices based on intervention fund (buffer stock) activated on either demand or supply side to prevent excessive price changes. (iii) Stabilizing record hyperinflation in his home country Serbia by introducing new currency, sound macro-monetary policy, and breaking inflationary expectations that reduced inflation and allowed price liberalization. He faced formidable political economy opposition to implementing debt management and commodity stabilization models, and structural reforms once the stabilization results were achieved.
{"title":"Dragoslav Drag Avramovic: Probing the limits of development and stabilization policy","authors":"D. Vujović","doi":"10.2298/pan2202299v","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202299v","url":null,"abstract":"Dragoslav Avramovic was one of most accomplished economists in the area of applied development policy. He came from a small country with limited exposure to western economics, and made a stellar career at the World Bank and the Brandt Commission. His main achievements include: (i) A novel approach to external debt management based on dynamic assessment of indebtedness and borrowing capacity. It differed from standard debt-to-GDP ratio approach since it evaluated the efficiency and effectiveness of borrowed resources. (ii) Model for reducing volatility of commodity prices based on intervention fund (buffer stock) activated on either demand or supply side to prevent excessive price changes. (iii) Stabilizing record hyperinflation in his home country Serbia by introducing new currency, sound macro-monetary policy, and breaking inflationary expectations that reduced inflation and allowed price liberalization. He faced formidable political economy opposition to implementing debt management and commodity stabilization models, and structural reforms once the stabilization results were achieved.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates an unprecedented regulation measure in the housing market, reference pricing, with evidence from Shenzhen China. We use a unique panel dataset, obtained through questionnaires to real estate agents, to document the effects of the policy on the housing market. The hypotheses that trading volume and house price decrease are validated by the data, while the one that turnover time increases is not supported. We discuss potential mechanisms that may explain these effects. Meanwhile, we infer estate-level discount factors that are not public information. Based on these factors, we forecast reference prices for the subsequent year. Overall, this paper fills the gap in the field of reference pricing effects on the housing market.
{"title":"The effects of reference pricing on housing market: Evidence from Shenzhen China","authors":"P. Arestis, Mianshan Lai, J. Hou","doi":"10.2298/pan220629015a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan220629015a","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates an unprecedented regulation measure in the housing market, reference pricing, with evidence from Shenzhen China. We use a unique panel dataset, obtained through questionnaires to real estate agents, to document the effects of the policy on the housing market. The hypotheses that trading volume and house price decrease are validated by the data, while the one that turnover time increases is not supported. We discuss potential mechanisms that may explain these effects. Meanwhile, we infer estate-level discount factors that are not public information. Based on these factors, we forecast reference prices for the subsequent year. Overall, this paper fills the gap in the field of reference pricing effects on the housing market.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study employs information economics and the financial intermediary theory to explore the influences of private information in virtual communities and financial technology (fintech) derived from virtual currency on financial stocks. The paper conducts robust analyses on 67,166 data observations of the stock markets in China and Taiwan and finds that virtual currency development causes a structural change in the financial industry. The financial stocks in Taiwan are obviously driven by virtual factors, whereas those in China are subject to both pull from substantial factors and push from virtual factors. The research findings also suggest that the non-fundamental herding behavior driven by private information interferes with the value of financial stocks. However, financial innovations boost the competitiveness of the financial industry. It is advised to establish a policy to closely monitor the diffusion of private information and the exchange rate volatility between cryptocurrencies and home currencies to facilitate proactive financial risk management.
{"title":"Is financial stocks driven by substantive factors or virtual factors? Comparing Taiwan and China markets","authors":"Chi Ho","doi":"10.2298/pan201210014h","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan201210014h","url":null,"abstract":"This study employs information economics and the financial intermediary theory to explore the influences of private information in virtual communities and financial technology (fintech) derived from virtual currency on financial stocks. The paper conducts robust analyses on 67,166 data observations of the stock markets in China and Taiwan and finds that virtual currency development causes a structural change in the financial industry. The financial stocks in Taiwan are obviously driven by virtual factors, whereas those in China are subject to both pull from substantial factors and push from virtual factors. The research findings also suggest that the non-fundamental herding behavior driven by private information interferes with the value of financial stocks. However, financial innovations boost the competitiveness of the financial industry. It is advised to establish a policy to closely monitor the diffusion of private information and the exchange rate volatility between cryptocurrencies and home currencies to facilitate proactive financial risk management.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims to study the safe haven attribute of the Japanese yen under domestic and U.S. economic and policy uncertainty (EPU). Because of the existence of structural changes, a bootstrap rolling window subsample causality test is used to enhance the credibility of the results. The empirical results confirm that the exchange rate returns (RER) and Japanese EPU are correlated in specific periods when major economic or political events occur. In most crisis periods, the Japanese EPU has positive effects on RER, and the yen appreciates when the EPU is increasing. In addition, the RER of the yen and U.S. EPU are both negatively and positively connected. This finding confirms the hedging function of the yen in certain periods. The reason for this relationship is that Japan's low interest rates make the yen the primary funding currency in speculative carrying trade strategies, and thus, it tends to appreciate during crisis periods regardless of the origins of the EPU shocks. Therefore, the yen can be held as a safe haven currency unless the government intervenes artificially.
{"title":"No longer a safe haven currency? A fresh evidence of Japanese yen under uncertainty","authors":"Z. Lee, Wei Su, R. Tao","doi":"10.2298/pan190329021l","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190329021l","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to study the safe haven attribute of the Japanese yen under domestic and U.S. economic and policy uncertainty (EPU). Because of the existence of structural changes, a bootstrap rolling window subsample causality test is used to enhance the credibility of the results. The empirical results confirm that the exchange rate returns (RER) and Japanese EPU are correlated in specific periods when major economic or political events occur. In most crisis periods, the Japanese EPU has positive effects on RER, and the yen appreciates when the EPU is increasing. In addition, the RER of the yen and U.S. EPU are both negatively and positively connected. This finding confirms the hedging function of the yen in certain periods. The reason for this relationship is that Japan's low interest rates make the yen the primary funding currency in speculative carrying trade strategies, and thus, it tends to appreciate during crisis periods regardless of the origins of the EPU shocks. Therefore, the yen can be held as a safe haven currency unless the government intervenes artificially.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to perform a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of pass-through of policy rates in Turkey. We explore monetary transmission with different choices of instruments, i.e., the Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR rate), BIST overnight rate, and Divisia money, and under different policy regimes, i.e., inflation targeting and new monetary policy regimes. We estimate a two-stage FAVAR model to use all of the available information set and obtain direct responses of disaggregated/sectorial series for the period 2005:12-2018:4. We extend the model setting proposed by Bernanke, Boivin, and Eliasz (2005) by considering the multiple-policy environment in Turkey. Our findings promote arguments that regard policy rate as a poor indicator of the policy stance in Turkey.
{"title":"Revisiting monetary policy effectiveness in Turkey using a FAVAR model","authors":"Umurcan Polat","doi":"10.2298/pan210215009p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan210215009p","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to perform a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of pass-through of policy rates in Turkey. We explore monetary transmission with different choices of instruments, i.e., the Turkish Lira Reference Interest Rate (TRLIBOR rate), BIST overnight rate, and Divisia money, and under different policy regimes, i.e., inflation targeting and new monetary policy regimes. We estimate a two-stage FAVAR model to use all of the available information set and obtain direct responses of disaggregated/sectorial series for the period 2005:12-2018:4. We extend the model setting proposed by Bernanke, Boivin, and Eliasz (2005) by considering the multiple-policy environment in Turkey. Our findings promote arguments that regard policy rate as a poor indicator of the policy stance in Turkey.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The digital economy and sustainable development are treated as the world?s progress, and there is a vast number of papers investigating the indirect linkage between these two phenomena. However, there is a lack of studies analysing the direct influence. Hence, the purpose of the current paper is to find out if there is an impact of the digital economy, expressed by DESI sub-dimensions, on sustainable development, represented by SDGI. For that issue, statistical data covering 2017-2020 was gathered, and panel regression modelling was applied. The survey covers 28 EU countries (including the United Kingdom because the data was collected before Brexit). The findings revealed that DESI sub-dimensions influence SDGI; however, the impact was negative in most cases. Thus, the current paper showed that standard views on the influence of the digital economy are not always the right ones.
{"title":"Does digital economy promote sustainable development: Case of EU countries?","authors":"Viktorija Skvarciany, D. Jurevičienė","doi":"10.2298/pan211217020s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan211217020s","url":null,"abstract":"The digital economy and sustainable development are treated as the world?s progress, and there is a vast number of papers investigating the indirect linkage between these two phenomena. However, there is a lack of studies analysing the direct influence. Hence, the purpose of the current paper is to find out if there is an impact of the digital economy, expressed by DESI sub-dimensions, on sustainable development, represented by SDGI. For that issue, statistical data covering 2017-2020 was gathered, and panel regression modelling was applied. The survey covers 28 EU countries (including the United Kingdom because the data was collected before Brexit). The findings revealed that DESI sub-dimensions influence SDGI; however, the impact was negative in most cases. Thus, the current paper showed that standard views on the influence of the digital economy are not always the right ones.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover between bond and commodity markets in terms of global liquidity risk. The data covers the daily closing prices of bond markets in specified countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Turkey - and certain commodities - gold and oil - for the period January 2008 to January 2022. We utilized the DCC-GARCH model to analyze volatility spillover between these markets and the Copula DCC-GACRH model to determine dependence structures between them. Additionally, we applied the Hong Causality in Variance Test to determine the direction of the causal relationships between these markets. Our empirical findings indicate the existence of significant volatility spillovers between gold and most of these bond markets (Brazil, China, Russia, and Turkey), and between oil and some of these bond markets (Russia, India and Turkey). Our results indicate a limited diversification benefit for investors and portfolio managers.
{"title":"A volatility spillover analysis between bond and commodity markets as an indicator for global liquidity risk","authors":"Ayşegül Kirkpinar, Pınar Evrim Mandaci","doi":"10.2298/pan180811011k","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan180811011k","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover between bond and commodity markets in terms of global liquidity risk. The data covers the daily closing prices of bond markets in specified countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Turkey - and certain commodities - gold and oil - for the period January 2008 to January 2022. We utilized the DCC-GARCH model to analyze volatility spillover between these markets and the Copula DCC-GACRH model to determine dependence structures between them. Additionally, we applied the Hong Causality in Variance Test to determine the direction of the causal relationships between these markets. Our empirical findings indicate the existence of significant volatility spillovers between gold and most of these bond markets (Brazil, China, Russia, and Turkey), and between oil and some of these bond markets (Russia, India and Turkey). Our results indicate a limited diversification benefit for investors and portfolio managers.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68604563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study looks into the relationships between the banks? ownership structures, the characteristics of their boards, and their performance. A bank's performance varies depending on a series of different factors. In recent years, the evaluation of performance in the context of corporate governance practices has gained importance. This study considers the issue from the perspective of developed nations, looking at the examples of the United States and the United Kingdom. The findings demonstrate that adopting certain corporate governance practices improves a bank's performance levels over previous periods. Having a duality in the board structure and increasing its proportion of nonexecutive board members improve a bank's performance. In contrast, a statistically significant negative relationship was found between bank performance and board size, board members appointed for their specific skills, and the number of board meetings. It was also discovered that there is no linear relationship between the proportion of strictly independent board members on a board of directors and performance. A nonlinear relationship was found between bank ownership concentration and their performance. The discovery of a nonlinear relationship between performance and increasing concentration in a bank's ownership structure and the proportion of strictly independent board members on its board is a sign that there is an optimal level for these variables.
{"title":"The nonlinear effects of ownership concentration and board structure on bank performance","authors":"Gamze Vural, Emel Bacha Simoes","doi":"10.2298/pan190404002v","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190404002v","url":null,"abstract":"This study looks into the relationships between the banks? ownership structures, the characteristics of their boards, and their performance. A bank's performance varies depending on a series of different factors. In recent years, the evaluation of performance in the context of corporate governance practices has gained importance. This study considers the issue from the perspective of developed nations, looking at the examples of the United States and the United Kingdom. The findings demonstrate that adopting certain corporate governance practices improves a bank's performance levels over previous periods. Having a duality in the board structure and increasing its proportion of nonexecutive board members improve a bank's performance. In contrast, a statistically significant negative relationship was found between bank performance and board size, board members appointed for their specific skills, and the number of board meetings. It was also discovered that there is no linear relationship between the proportion of strictly independent board members on a board of directors and performance. A nonlinear relationship was found between bank ownership concentration and their performance. The discovery of a nonlinear relationship between performance and increasing concentration in a bank's ownership structure and the proportion of strictly independent board members on its board is a sign that there is an optimal level for these variables.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Until the Augmented Neo-Classical Growth Model developed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil, growth theories have ignored the human capital factor. This study aims to investigate the impact of health on economic growth in Turkey between 1960-2014 through a production function that includes human capital. Health and education are included in the production function as the two main components of human capital. The Multivariate Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test was conducted for empirical analysis. As a result, a significant long-term cointegration relationship was found between the variables. The results also indicate that a 1% increase in life expectancy at birth leads to a 0.67% increase in GDP, a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in vocational and technical secondary education leads to a 0.21% decrease in GDP, and a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in tertiary education leads to a 0.21% increase in GDP.
{"title":"The effect of health on economic growth: A production function approach for Turkey","authors":"H. Avci, Z. Çalışkan","doi":"10.2298/pan210411005a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan210411005a","url":null,"abstract":"Until the Augmented Neo-Classical Growth Model developed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil, growth theories have ignored the human capital factor. This study aims to investigate the impact of health on economic growth in Turkey between 1960-2014 through a production function that includes human capital. Health and education are included in the production function as the two main components of human capital. The Multivariate Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test was conducted for empirical analysis. As a result, a significant long-term cointegration relationship was found between the variables. The results also indicate that a 1% increase in life expectancy at birth leads to a 0.67% increase in GDP, a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in vocational and technical secondary education leads to a 0.21% decrease in GDP, and a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in tertiary education leads to a 0.21% increase in GDP.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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