The inadequate response of the state to the collapse of the monetary system of the former Yugoslavia and the introduction of UN sanctions resulted in one of the longest and largest hyperinflations in economic history. The stabilisation programme, implemented at the end of January 1994, led to an almost immediate halt to hyperinflation, which enabled the recovery of the monetary and fiscal system, the growth of economic activity, and consequently the growth of citizens? standard of living. The programme had limited economic reach because political actors failed to implement fiscal consolidation, while sanctions made it more difficult to implement economic reforms. After the signing of the Dayton Agreement and the lifting of trade sanctions, Programme II was proposed, containing key measures for the transition from a socialist to a market economy. A coalition of influential interest groups gathered around the ruling parties rejected Programme II, although some ideas from the Programme were implemented in the following years.
{"title":"The quest for macroeconomic stability under sanctions and weak state","authors":"M. Arsic","doi":"10.2298/pan2202205a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202205a","url":null,"abstract":"The inadequate response of the state to the collapse of the monetary system of the former Yugoslavia and the introduction of UN sanctions resulted in one of the longest and largest hyperinflations in economic history. The stabilisation programme, implemented at the end of January 1994, led to an almost immediate halt to hyperinflation, which enabled the recovery of the monetary and fiscal system, the growth of economic activity, and consequently the growth of citizens? standard of living. The programme had limited economic reach because political actors failed to implement fiscal consolidation, while sanctions made it more difficult to implement economic reforms. After the signing of the Dayton Agreement and the lifting of trade sanctions, Programme II was proposed, containing key measures for the transition from a socialist to a market economy. A coalition of influential interest groups gathered around the ruling parties rejected Programme II, although some ideas from the Programme were implemented in the following years.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper is dedicated to Dragoslav Avramovic, a unique personality who played a key role in a historically important period for Federal Republic (FR) of Yugoslavia. After the successful implementation of his macroeconomic stabilization program, Avramovic wanted to implement other important economic reforms. In November 1995, he prepared the ?Program II? that contained fifteen measures, one of which was the ?Democratization of property relations?. Avramovic formed a Working Group in April 1996 that was to prepare a privatization program for FR Yugoslavia. The program was soon ready, proposing obligatory, comprehensive and fast privatization of all enterprises in FR Yugoslavia, using a combination of different methods. However, Avramovic?s privatization program was not even officially discussed, since in mid-May 1995 he had to leave his position of Governor of the National Bank. The paper also points to the profound ideological differences among intellectuals at that time and to the wider consequences of Avramovic?s departure.
{"title":"Avramovic’s contribution to the transition to market economy in Yugoslavia","authors":"M. Uvalić","doi":"10.2298/pan2202265u","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202265u","url":null,"abstract":"The paper is dedicated to Dragoslav Avramovic, a unique personality who played a key role in a historically important period for Federal Republic (FR) of Yugoslavia. After the successful implementation of his macroeconomic stabilization program, Avramovic wanted to implement other important economic reforms. In November 1995, he prepared the ?Program II? that contained fifteen measures, one of which was the ?Democratization of property relations?. Avramovic formed a Working Group in April 1996 that was to prepare a privatization program for FR Yugoslavia. The program was soon ready, proposing obligatory, comprehensive and fast privatization of all enterprises in FR Yugoslavia, using a combination of different methods. However, Avramovic?s privatization program was not even officially discussed, since in mid-May 1995 he had to leave his position of Governor of the National Bank. The paper also points to the profound ideological differences among intellectuals at that time and to the wider consequences of Avramovic?s departure.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The position of developing countries (DC) in the international financial system is the topic on which Dragoslav Avramovic worked throughout his successful scientific career. This paper extends his research towards an empirical analysis of the importance of spillovers from the changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the country risk premium and exchange rate in Serbia over the most intense phase of the Euro crisis (2008-2012). Empirical results suggest that the ECB policy changes during the crisis significantly spilled over to financial markets only in several dimensions. The policies did not have a statistically significant effect on the level of the exchange rate and of the risk premium. However, they had a significant effect on the rise in uncertainty, especially in the case of ECB?s foreign exchange liquidity and monetary stimulus measures. Our empirical results imply that the changes in monetary policy in advanced economies can drive uncertainty spillovers across the financial markets, thereby also affecting the business cycle fluctuations in emerging markets (EM).
{"title":"Spillovers of monetary policy shocks on financial markets during the crisis: Serbia and euro zone","authors":"M. Nedeljkovic, N. Savić","doi":"10.2298/pan2202315n","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202315n","url":null,"abstract":"The position of developing countries (DC) in the international financial system is the topic on which Dragoslav Avramovic worked throughout his successful scientific career. This paper extends his research towards an empirical analysis of the importance of spillovers from the changes in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) on the country risk premium and exchange rate in Serbia over the most intense phase of the Euro crisis (2008-2012). Empirical results suggest that the ECB policy changes during the crisis significantly spilled over to financial markets only in several dimensions. The policies did not have a statistically significant effect on the level of the exchange rate and of the risk premium. However, they had a significant effect on the rise in uncertainty, especially in the case of ECB?s foreign exchange liquidity and monetary stimulus measures. Our empirical results imply that the changes in monetary policy in advanced economies can drive uncertainty spillovers across the financial markets, thereby also affecting the business cycle fluctuations in emerging markets (EM).","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regarding the dynamics of the contemporary world economy, success in a domestic economy cannot be achieved without effective integration policies for goods/services and capital flows. To evaluate this proposition, we utilize many openness measures for two periods, 1995-2009 and 2000-2014, for the Turkish sectors. The empirical findings suggest that domestic value added in export is a major driver of sectoral value added. While import and backward linkages appear to be stimulators for total factor productivity (TFP) in manufacturing industries, they have no significant impact on sectoral value added. Trade barriers in the form of tariff rates, which primarily stemmed from manufacturing industries, have a considerable detrimental impact on Turkish sectoral performance. Higher tariffs not only make it more difficult for Turkish businesses to enter overseas markets but also raise the costs for importers. The initial impact of this protection is inexorably exacerbated by global value chains (GVCs), with negative consequences felt in nearly every economy. Given the increased backward GVC involvement of some manufacturing industries, such as machinery and equipment, Turkish sectors should be prepared for external shocks by diversifying importer origins, stocking up, and boosting transparency in their operations. Overall, designing and implementing trade policies to effectively integrate into the GVCs is an important task for Turkey.
{"title":"The impacts of openness and global value chains on the performance of Turkish sectors","authors":"Halit Yanıkkaya, Abdullah Altun, Pinar Tat","doi":"10.2298/pan201011010y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan201011010y","url":null,"abstract":"Regarding the dynamics of the contemporary world economy, success in a domestic economy cannot be achieved without effective integration policies for goods/services and capital flows. To evaluate this proposition, we utilize many openness measures for two periods, 1995-2009 and 2000-2014, for the Turkish sectors. The empirical findings suggest that domestic value added in export is a major driver of sectoral value added. While import and backward linkages appear to be stimulators for total factor productivity (TFP) in manufacturing industries, they have no significant impact on sectoral value added. Trade barriers in the form of tariff rates, which primarily stemmed from manufacturing industries, have a considerable detrimental impact on Turkish sectoral performance. Higher tariffs not only make it more difficult for Turkish businesses to enter overseas markets but also raise the costs for importers. The initial impact of this protection is inexorably exacerbated by global value chains (GVCs), with negative consequences felt in nearly every economy. Given the increased backward GVC involvement of some manufacturing industries, such as machinery and equipment, Turkish sectors should be prepared for external shocks by diversifying importer origins, stocking up, and boosting transparency in their operations. Overall, designing and implementing trade policies to effectively integrate into the GVCs is an important task for Turkey.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Was monetary policy crucial for early sovereign debt sustainability? This paper analyses whether the availability of gold and silver drove Venetian government debt servicing costs in the late medieval period. We use an error correction model to describe changes in yields on perpetual bonds issued by the Venetian state. We document that the ability of the Venetian Republic to service its sovereign borrowing can be partially attributed to the supply of precious metals. We show that the substantial increase in debt servicing costs during the 15th century can be associated with an abrupt halt in the supply of gold and silver from mines in Serbia and Bosnia - primarily a consequence of the Ottoman expansion to the west. We control for other explanatory factors, such as mean reversion of nominal yield, real GDP growth and military conflicts.
{"title":"Interaction of monetary and fiscal policy from a historical perspective: Precious metals and Venetian government debt","authors":"M. Božović","doi":"10.2298/pan2202333b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202333b","url":null,"abstract":"Was monetary policy crucial for early sovereign debt sustainability? This paper analyses whether the availability of gold and silver drove Venetian government debt servicing costs in the late medieval period. We use an error correction model to describe changes in yields on perpetual bonds issued by the Venetian state. We document that the ability of the Venetian Republic to service its sovereign borrowing can be partially attributed to the supply of precious metals. We show that the substantial increase in debt servicing costs during the 15th century can be associated with an abrupt halt in the supply of gold and silver from mines in Serbia and Bosnia - primarily a consequence of the Ottoman expansion to the west. We control for other explanatory factors, such as mean reversion of nominal yield, real GDP growth and military conflicts.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, we show with the help of a simple model that an increase of the retirement age has a negative impact on the distribution of pension benefits in the Bismarckian as well in the Beveridgean pension system. In both systems, the distribution of pension benefits will change in favour of high-income earners. Additionally, we show that the increasing gap in the life expectancies of low and high-income earners will increase inequality. Both results are a consequence of the positive relationship between the socio-economic status and life expectancy of a person. These important insights are often ignored by the promoters of pension reforms.
{"title":"Why the increase in the retirement age will lead to more inequality and poverty? An ignored fairness problem","authors":"P. Stauvermann, R. Kumar, Arvind Patel","doi":"10.2298/pan190531004s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190531004s","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we show with the help of a simple model that an increase of the retirement age has a negative impact on the distribution of pension benefits in the Bismarckian as well in the Beveridgean pension system. In both systems, the distribution of pension benefits will change in favour of high-income earners. Additionally, we show that the increasing gap in the life expectancies of low and high-income earners will increase inequality. Both results are a consequence of the positive relationship between the socio-economic status and life expectancy of a person. These important insights are often ignored by the promoters of pension reforms.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research is inspired by Joseph Schumpeter?s understanding of economic evolution. In his view, innovations promote economic development, whereas imitations promote the diffusion of innovations, leading the economy through a process that he defines as "creative destruction." A host of economists tend to agree on the importance and consequences of innovations and imitations within economic processes; however, opinions regarding creative destruction tend to differ. One view purports that creative destruction serves as a main variable, pushing the capitalist economic system toward equilibrium through imitation processes. A contrary view suggests that an equilibrium state actually promotes economic growth. Within this context, our research aims to model some mechanisms that may appear within economic evolution. Hurwicz?s concept of economic mechanisms is introduced in a modified Arrow?Debreu model, as a way of examining Schumpeter?s ideas on the role of creative destruction in economic processes that does not decrease the positions of agents. In relation to this, the present work suggests that it is indeed possible to design a mechanism that would transform the economic system under consideration toward a state of equilibrium, without making the positions of any agents worse off.
{"title":"The role of destructive mechanisms within economic evolution","authors":"A. Lipieta, Artur Lipieta","doi":"10.2298/pan190729008l","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan190729008l","url":null,"abstract":"This research is inspired by Joseph Schumpeter?s understanding of economic evolution. In his view, innovations promote economic development, whereas imitations promote the diffusion of innovations, leading the economy through a process that he defines as \"creative destruction.\" A host of economists tend to agree on the importance and consequences of innovations and imitations within economic processes; however, opinions regarding creative destruction tend to differ. One view purports that creative destruction serves as a main variable, pushing the capitalist economic system toward equilibrium through imitation processes. A contrary view suggests that an equilibrium state actually promotes economic growth. Within this context, our research aims to model some mechanisms that may appear within economic evolution. Hurwicz?s concept of economic mechanisms is introduced in a modified Arrow?Debreu model, as a way of examining Schumpeter?s ideas on the role of creative destruction in economic processes that does not decrease the positions of agents. In relation to this, the present work suggests that it is indeed possible to design a mechanism that would transform the economic system under consideration toward a state of equilibrium, without making the positions of any agents worse off.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mihail Petkovski, Jordan Kjosevski, Kiril Simeonovski
The goal of this study is to examine the impact of remittance inflow on inflation using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Granger causality approach in countries from Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1994 to 2019. As the levels of economic and financial development vary considerably across these countries and some of them are member states of the European Union (EU), we split them into two more homogenous groups - EU member states and non-EU countries. The application of the SGMM approach reveals that remittances have a negative and significant impact on inflation in the non- EU countries, whereas they exert positive impact in the EU member states and in the whole region overall. The Granger causality test shows a unidirectional causal relationship between remittances and inflation in all country groups, whereas the existence of a positive causal relationship from remittances to inflation has been established in twelve countries.
{"title":"Testing for causality between remittances and inflation: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"Mihail Petkovski, Jordan Kjosevski, Kiril Simeonovski","doi":"10.2298/pan210322019p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan210322019p","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this study is to examine the impact of remittance inflow on inflation using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Granger causality approach in countries from Central and Eastern Europe over the period 1994 to 2019. As the levels of economic and financial development vary considerably across these countries and some of them are member states of the European Union (EU), we split them into two more homogenous groups - EU member states and non-EU countries. The application of the SGMM approach reveals that remittances have a negative and significant impact on inflation in the non- EU countries, whereas they exert positive impact in the EU member states and in the whole region overall. The Granger causality test shows a unidirectional causal relationship between remittances and inflation in all country groups, whereas the existence of a positive causal relationship from remittances to inflation has been established in twelve countries.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the effects of a negative economic shock on short- and long-term youth emancipation in Spain over the period 1995-2017. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with different endogenous and exogenous variables which might have an impact on youth residential emancipation according to the academic literature. The results show how emancipation is impacted negatively by the shock after two quarters on average. Following this, the situation returns to its prior state at an accelerated rate. We also find that, in the short term, the unemployment rate has a greater influence than the temporary employment rate on youth emancipation. In the long term, this trend is reversed. To conclude, we find that emancipation processes do not depend as much on entry into the labour market as they do on the conditions to stay in it.
{"title":"Youth emancipation and the labour market in Spain","authors":"A. Soler, Jonathan Torres‐Tellez, García Ayala","doi":"10.2298/pan191125016s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan191125016s","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effects of a negative economic shock on short- and long-term youth emancipation in Spain over the period 1995-2017. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with different endogenous and exogenous variables which might have an impact on youth residential emancipation according to the academic literature. The results show how emancipation is impacted negatively by the shock after two quarters on average. Following this, the situation returns to its prior state at an accelerated rate. We also find that, in the short term, the unemployment rate has a greater influence than the temporary employment rate on youth emancipation. In the long term, this trend is reversed. To conclude, we find that emancipation processes do not depend as much on entry into the labour market as they do on the conditions to stay in it.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68605478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Our article aims to present an in-depth analysis of the correlation between health status and poverty in European countries. Our research is grounded on two types of data: a survey of the perceptions of the European citizens related to their own physical and mental health conducted in 2017 in European Union countries and the United Kingdom on a sample of 28,000 respondents and macroeconomic data retrieved from Eurostat Database, showing the incidence of poverty and working poor in Europe during the 2017-2019 time span. Multiple logistic regression has revealed that self-rated health status is influenced by the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents, whereas TwoStep Cluster analysis and Mann-Whitney U test proved that health is an important driver of the differences between countries in terms of poverty and working poor. The originality of our research stems from both the integrated approach, the analysis being made at individual, group, and country levels, and by the results that bring new evidence about population health status as a determinant of quality of life and national competitiveness.
{"title":"An in-depth analysis of the relation of health and poverty in Europe","authors":"Simona-Andreea Apostu, G. Dimian, M. Vasilescu","doi":"10.2298/pan210622006a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan210622006a","url":null,"abstract":"Our article aims to present an in-depth analysis of the correlation between health status and poverty in European countries. Our research is grounded on two types of data: a survey of the perceptions of the European citizens related to their own physical and mental health conducted in 2017 in European Union countries and the United Kingdom on a sample of 28,000 respondents and macroeconomic data retrieved from Eurostat Database, showing the incidence of poverty and working poor in Europe during the 2017-2019 time span. Multiple logistic regression has revealed that self-rated health status is influenced by the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents, whereas TwoStep Cluster analysis and Mann-Whitney U test proved that health is an important driver of the differences between countries in terms of poverty and working poor. The originality of our research stems from both the integrated approach, the analysis being made at individual, group, and country levels, and by the results that bring new evidence about population health status as a determinant of quality of life and national competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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