The study explores both the long- and short-run liaisons between three conceptual dimensions: economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness in 29 net energy importing middle-income economies using annual data from 1990 to 2019. We hereby assess ARDL models which examine the long-run links by integrations in between these three conceptual variables, and additionally Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Granger causality tests for panel and individual country models, respectively. For panel country samples, we reveal bidirectional causality connection between trade openness and economic growth along with unidirectional causalities from economic growth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to trade openness in the short run. Bidirectional positive feedback relationships stand between economic growth- energy consumption and trade openness- energy consumption in the full sample and the upper middle-middle economies subsample in the long run. Findings for individual country estimations reveal significant long-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in 12, energy consumption -and trade openness in 6, and economic growth -and trade openness in 9 of the middle-income economies examined.
{"title":"Economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness nexus: evidence from net energy importing middle-income countries","authors":"Haşmet Sarıgül, S. Apak","doi":"10.2298/pan211102024s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan211102024s","url":null,"abstract":"The study explores both the long- and short-run liaisons between three conceptual dimensions: economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness in 29 net energy importing middle-income economies using annual data from 1990 to 2019. We hereby assess ARDL models which examine the long-run links by integrations in between these three conceptual variables, and additionally Dumitrescu-Hurlin and Granger causality tests for panel and individual country models, respectively. For panel country samples, we reveal bidirectional causality connection between trade openness and economic growth along with unidirectional causalities from economic growth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to trade openness in the short run. Bidirectional positive feedback relationships stand between economic growth- energy consumption and trade openness- energy consumption in the full sample and the upper middle-middle economies subsample in the long run. Findings for individual country estimations reveal significant long-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in 12, energy consumption -and trade openness in 6, and economic growth -and trade openness in 9 of the middle-income economies examined.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It was under the UN sanctions during 1992 and 1993 that hyperinflation hit the FRY. Its leadership believed that the fiscal deficit could be covered by printing money, but such a practice resulted in acceleration of hyperinflation. Former World Bank economist Dragoslav Avramovic understood that stopping printing money should represent the core of his Programme. He was aware of the Olivera-Tanzi effect, but the fierce attacks on the Programme in the course of its presentation to the nation?s top leadership indicated that those people were not - despite the fact that the real value of all collected taxes decreased to only several tens of millions of US dollars. It was ultimately Milosevic himself who decided that the Programme should be approved. The economic problems of the FRY ran much deeper. The involved interests of the nomenklatura in the real sector blocked further reforms and Avramovic was dismissed in 1996.
{"title":"Olivera, Tanzi, Milosevic: Why was Avramovic’s programme adopted?","authors":"D. Popović","doi":"10.2298/pan2202225p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202225p","url":null,"abstract":"It was under the UN sanctions during 1992 and 1993 that hyperinflation hit the FRY. Its leadership believed that the fiscal deficit could be covered by printing money, but such a practice resulted in acceleration of hyperinflation. Former World Bank economist Dragoslav Avramovic understood that stopping printing money should represent the core of his Programme. He was aware of the Olivera-Tanzi effect, but the fierce attacks on the Programme in the course of its presentation to the nation?s top leadership indicated that those people were not - despite the fact that the real value of all collected taxes decreased to only several tens of millions of US dollars. It was ultimately Milosevic himself who decided that the Programme should be approved. The economic problems of the FRY ran much deeper. The involved interests of the nomenklatura in the real sector blocked further reforms and Avramovic was dismissed in 1996.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Avramovic accepted a position of a governor of Central bank of Yugoslavia (at that time, consisted of Republic of Serbia and Republic of Montenegro) in 1994. He has successfully executed one of the most effective anti-inflation programs in an adverse financial environment and without international support. This paper deals with some of the basic problems Avramovic has faced twenty five years ago, most of which have left visible consequences up to present day. They still nowadays present important weaknesses of Serbian monetary and financial system. First of those problems is low institutional independence of Serbian central bank. Second problem Avramovic was facing was lack of confidence in the banking system. Third problem Avramovic was facing at the time of his Program was lack of confidence in the local currency. These features, although less pronounced, still remain a burden for Serbian financial system. They increase lending risks, weaken monetary policy tools, and decrease rates of growth to this day.
{"title":"Problems and challenges of Avramovic stabilization program quarter of a century later","authors":"Dejan Šoškić","doi":"10.2298/pan2202247s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202247s","url":null,"abstract":"Avramovic accepted a position of a governor of Central bank of Yugoslavia (at that time, consisted of Republic of Serbia and Republic of Montenegro) in 1994. He has successfully executed one of the most effective anti-inflation programs in an adverse financial environment and without international support. This paper deals with some of the basic problems Avramovic has faced twenty five years ago, most of which have left visible consequences up to present day. They still nowadays present important weaknesses of Serbian monetary and financial system. First of those problems is low institutional independence of Serbian central bank. Second problem Avramovic was facing was lack of confidence in the banking system. Third problem Avramovic was facing at the time of his Program was lack of confidence in the local currency. These features, although less pronounced, still remain a burden for Serbian financial system. They increase lending risks, weaken monetary policy tools, and decrease rates of growth to this day.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, the key sectors of Turkey are determined using Input-Output (IO) network analysis. Different centrality measures are analyzed and compared. Accordingly, eigenvector, page rank, hub, and authority centralities are calculated. The effects of an economic shock are also analyzed using random walk centrality and counting betweenness. Findings indicate that the key sectors are ?Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles?, ?Transport, Storage and Communications?, ?Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry?, ?Construction?, ?Real Estate Activities?, and ?Textiles, Textile Products, Leather and Footwear?. Furthermore, the same sectors are determined to be vulnerable to economic shocks.
{"title":"Key sector analysis by IO networks: Evidence from Turkey","authors":"Y. Çirpici","doi":"10.2298/pan230326023c","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan230326023c","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the key sectors of Turkey are determined using Input-Output (IO) network analysis. Different centrality measures are analyzed and compared. Accordingly, eigenvector, page rank, hub, and authority centralities are calculated. The effects of an economic shock are also analyzed using random walk centrality and counting betweenness. Findings indicate that the key sectors are ?Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles?, ?Transport, Storage and Communications?, ?Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry?, ?Construction?, ?Real Estate Activities?, and ?Textiles, Textile Products, Leather and Footwear?. Furthermore, the same sectors are determined to be vulnerable to economic shocks.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68608359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on the demand for business loans in individual euro area countries. The results of Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model impulse response functions show that in some countries the overall demand for business loans, and particularly the demand for business loans for fixed-investment financing, respond significantly negatively to the shock.
{"title":"Uncertainty and demand for business loans: A study of selected countries in the euro area","authors":"Silvo Dajčman","doi":"10.2298/pan180725013d","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan180725013d","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on the demand for business loans in individual euro area countries. The results of Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model impulse response functions show that in some countries the overall demand for business loans, and particularly the demand for business loans for fixed-investment financing, respond significantly negatively to the shock.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68604479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joseph A. Schumpeter suggested two models about the evolution process of capitalist societies. The article aims to specify the essential roles of these models in discussions about the modern firm theories and the development of integrated economic growth and international trade theory. In this context, this article aims to evaluate these developments and point out their role in bridging the gap between microeconomics and macroeconomics. The Schumpeterian framework, as a bridge, provides us a very productive base to discuss the connections among entrepreneurs, firms, innovation, economic growth, and international trade.
{"title":"Joseph A. Schumpeter and Schumpeterian paradigm on the dynamics of capitalism: Entrepreneur, innovation, growth, and trade","authors":"Turan Yay, G. Yay","doi":"10.2298/pan200913001y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan200913001y","url":null,"abstract":"Joseph A. Schumpeter suggested two models about the evolution process of capitalist societies. The article aims to specify the essential roles of these models in discussions about the modern firm theories and the development of integrated economic growth and international trade theory. In this context, this article aims to evaluate these developments and point out their role in bridging the gap between microeconomics and macroeconomics. The Schumpeterian framework, as a bridge, provides us a very productive base to discuss the connections among entrepreneurs, firms, innovation, economic growth, and international trade.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper overviews hyperinflation episodes in Yugoslavia and elucidates the roles of Prime Minister Ante Markovic and Governor Dragoslav Avramovic, credited with their successful conclusion. The first part of the paper provides a comparative review of the highest hyperinflations in modern history. The next two parts are dedicated to the role of Ante Markovic, in the first, and the role of Dragoslav Avramovic during second hyperinflation. The last part of the paper describes the unfavorable final outcome of both hyperinflationary episodes, reveals the causes and indicates the opportunities that were have missed at key moments.
{"title":"Yugoslav hyperinflations and our saviors","authors":"Danica Popović","doi":"10.2298/pan2202233p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202233p","url":null,"abstract":"This paper overviews hyperinflation episodes in Yugoslavia and elucidates the roles of Prime Minister Ante Markovic and Governor Dragoslav Avramovic, credited with their successful conclusion. The first part of the paper provides a comparative review of the highest hyperinflations in modern history. The next two parts are dedicated to the role of Ante Markovic, in the first, and the role of Dragoslav Avramovic during second hyperinflation. The last part of the paper describes the unfavorable final outcome of both hyperinflationary episodes, reveals the causes and indicates the opportunities that were have missed at key moments.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68607152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this article is to compare and contrast the ideas of Friedrich von Hayek and Joseph Alois Schumpeter, who both adopted an indeterminist approach in their economic analyses, through a discussion of their relative strengths and weaknesses. The analysis makes extensive references the ideas of Karl Popper and Roy Bhaskar because of their profound impact on philosophical as well as economic thought. The article examines the indeterminism that marks the theories of Hayek and Schumpeter from an ontological and epistemological standpoint. More specifically, it addresses Popper and Hayek on the side of epistemological indeterminism as they theorized indeterminacy on the basis of the uncertainty of the future, and temporality in general, as well as the ever-changing and always incomplete nature of knowledge, whereas it analyzes Bhaskar and Schumpeter as ontological indeterminists who saw indeterminacy as resulting from the nature of economic and social systems. The article?s conclusion is that epistemological approaches to the study of indeterminacy are bound to remain within a static framework and that an ontological reasoning is needed for a transition to a dynamic framework. In other words, the reasons lying behind discontinuity in economic systems can be found only within the inherent characteristics of those systems. Therefore, any economic analysis should start with a careful assessment of the social reality?s nature, because faulty assumptions about it will inevitably lead to disconnect between theory and practice.
{"title":"Epistemological and ontological indeterminism: Hayek and Schumpeter","authors":"F. Soylu","doi":"10.2298/pan200602025s","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan200602025s","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this article is to compare and contrast the ideas of Friedrich von Hayek and Joseph Alois Schumpeter, who both adopted an indeterminist approach in their economic analyses, through a discussion of their relative strengths and weaknesses. The analysis makes extensive references the ideas of Karl Popper and Roy Bhaskar because of their profound impact on philosophical as well as economic thought. The article examines the indeterminism that marks the theories of Hayek and Schumpeter from an ontological and epistemological standpoint. More specifically, it addresses Popper and Hayek on the side of epistemological indeterminism as they theorized indeterminacy on the basis of the uncertainty of the future, and temporality in general, as well as the ever-changing and always incomplete nature of knowledge, whereas it analyzes Bhaskar and Schumpeter as ontological indeterminists who saw indeterminacy as resulting from the nature of economic and social systems. The article?s conclusion is that epistemological approaches to the study of indeterminacy are bound to remain within a static framework and that an ontological reasoning is needed for a transition to a dynamic framework. In other words, the reasons lying behind discontinuity in economic systems can be found only within the inherent characteristics of those systems. Therefore, any economic analysis should start with a careful assessment of the social reality?s nature, because faulty assumptions about it will inevitably lead to disconnect between theory and practice.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I documented a widespread decline in the rate of capacity utilization in the US manufacturing industry during the last decades, which parallels a worsening trend of gross capital formation. I conducted several exploratory exercises to investigate whether utilization rates were actually related to the investment performance during 1952-2014. Vector auto-regressive estimates imply a non-trivial quantitative relationship between utilization rates and investment, which accounts for a decline equivalent to more than 30% of the average investment falloff over the whole period considered. Finally, I used firm-level data to control for other investment determinants. The relationship remains statistically and economically significant. In addition, I found a link between past accumulated utilization variation and current investment, suggesting that excess capacity could be a relevant force behind current investment weakness.
{"title":"The impact of excess capacity on the investment falloff","authors":"Rodrigo Pérez Artica","doi":"10.2298/pan180301017p","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan180301017p","url":null,"abstract":"I documented a widespread decline in the rate of capacity utilization in the US manufacturing industry during the last decades, which parallels a worsening trend of gross capital formation. I conducted several exploratory exercises to investigate whether utilization rates were actually related to the investment performance during 1952-2014. Vector auto-regressive estimates imply a non-trivial quantitative relationship between utilization rates and investment, which accounts for a decline equivalent to more than 30% of the average investment falloff over the whole period considered. Finally, I used firm-level data to control for other investment determinants. The relationship remains statistically and economically significant. In addition, I found a link between past accumulated utilization variation and current investment, suggesting that excess capacity could be a relevant force behind current investment weakness.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68604812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper contributes to the literature on hyperinflation and stabilizations by analyzing the great Yugoslav hyperinflation and stabilization during the period 1992 to 1994. The paper makes three contributions. First, it provides updated and more accurate estimates of key economic variables on economic activity, public finances, and seigniorage revenues during hyperinflation based on most recent and updated data. Second, it identifies and analyzes salient features, causes, transmission mechanisms, and monetary consequences of the extreme Yugoslav hyperinflation in the period 1992-1994. It discusses what we call the fundamental equations of the Yugoslav hyperinflation and their implications for inflation expectations and subsequent stabilization. And third, it analyzes the implementation, achievements, and challenges of the currency reform and stabilization program that ended hyperinflation, highlighting the roles of the currency board, currency reform, and of the architect of the program, Dragoslav Avramovic, the then governor of the Central Bank of FR Yugoslavia.
{"title":"Hyperinflation and stabilization in FR Yugoslavia: 1992-1994","authors":"Z. Bogetic, Diana Dragutinovic, P. Petrović","doi":"10.2298/pan2202173b","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2298/pan2202173b","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contributes to the literature on hyperinflation and stabilizations by analyzing the great Yugoslav hyperinflation and stabilization during the period 1992 to 1994. The paper makes three contributions. First, it provides updated and more accurate estimates of key economic variables on economic activity, public finances, and seigniorage revenues during hyperinflation based on most recent and updated data. Second, it identifies and analyzes salient features, causes, transmission mechanisms, and monetary consequences of the extreme Yugoslav hyperinflation in the period 1992-1994. It discusses what we call the fundamental equations of the Yugoslav hyperinflation and their implications for inflation expectations and subsequent stabilization. And third, it analyzes the implementation, achievements, and challenges of the currency reform and stabilization program that ended hyperinflation, highlighting the roles of the currency board, currency reform, and of the architect of the program, Dragoslav Avramovic, the then governor of the Central Bank of FR Yugoslavia.","PeriodicalId":45222,"journal":{"name":"Panoeconomicus","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68606938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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