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The potential impacts and risks of global stablecoins 全球稳定币的潜在影响和风险
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2021.1872167
Cangshu Li, Yan Shen
ABSTRACT This paper aims to study the implications of the potential large-scale usage of global stablecoins. We start with describing the origin and the evolution of stablecoins, and then analyze the operational mechanism and application scenarios. An analysis on whether global stablecoins will lead to dollarization of a country’s monetary system is then followed, based on the monetary quantity theory and Fisher’s equation. We find that large-scale usage of global stablecoins may have an impact on both large and small open economies, and with a greater impact on the sovereign monetary system of small economies. Further, global stablecoins may affect financial stability through influencing monetary policy, holder confidence and financial system. The potential risks are embodied in technology development, payment security and illegal transactions. To deal with these potential impacts and risks, we propose to strengthen judicial research and plan arrangements for global cooperation and coordination.
摘要本文旨在研究全球稳定币潜在大规模使用的影响。我们首先描述了稳定币的起源和演变,然后分析了其运行机制和应用场景。然后,基于货币数量理论和Fisher方程,分析了全球稳定币是否会导致一个国家货币体系的美元化。我们发现,全球稳定币的大规模使用可能会对大型和小型开放经济体产生影响,并对小型经济体的主权货币体系产生更大的影响。此外,全球稳定币可能通过影响货币政策、持有者信心和金融体系来影响金融稳定。潜在风险体现在技术开发、支付安全和非法交易方面。为了应对这些潜在影响和风险,我们建议加强司法研究,并规划全球合作与协调的安排。
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引用次数: 5
The genesis, design and implications of China’s central bank digital currency 中国央行数字货币的产生、设计及其启示
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1870273
Shiyun Li, Yiping Huang
ABSTRACT The People’s Bank of China (PBC) was among the first in the world to start exploration of central bank digital currency (CBDC) and will probably be one of the first major central banks releasing its own CBDC. This article intends to explain the construction of the e-CNY and discuss its likely implications. While PBC tried hard to avoid causing disintermediation of commercial banks, it remains to be seen if there will be a shift from commercial banks savings accounts to the new e-CNY wallets. E-CNY’s impacts on existing mobile payment system and the associated collection and analyses of big data in the Fintech sector could be major. In summary, even the modest step of creating e-CNY could significantly transform the financial landscape in China. But this is only the step by PBC in creating its own CBDC.
中国人民银行(PBC)是世界上最早开始探索央行数字货币(CBDC)的国家之一,也可能是首批发布自己的CBDC的主要央行之一。本文旨在解释电子货币的构建,并讨论其可能的影响。尽管中国人民银行努力避免引起商业银行的脱媒,但是否会从商业银行的储蓄账户转向新的电子人民币钱包,还有待观察。E-CNY对现有的移动支付系统以及金融科技领域相关的大数据收集和分析的影响可能是重大的。总而言之,即使是创建e-CNY的温和步骤也可能显著改变中国的金融格局。但这只是中国人民银行创建自己的CBDC的一步。
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引用次数: 23
Demographic changes and economic growth: impact and mechanisms 人口变化与经济增长:影响和机制
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-27 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1865647
Q. Hu, Xiaoyan Lei, Bo Zhao
ABSTRACT Using panel data on 172 countries from 1960 to 2019, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on economic growth and explores the underlying mechanisms. We find that the aging of the population significantly reduces the economic growth rate: when the population over age 65 increases by 1 percentage point, the per capita economic growth rate decreases by 2.6 percentage points. We examine four channels through which population aging may affect economic growth and find that three channels play significant roles: capital accumulation, labor supply, and economic structure, while technological progress and human capital accumulation do not seem to be significant. We also find significant heterogeneity in the impact across countries at different income levels: the effects are statistically significant for middle-income and high-income countries, but not for low-income countries.
本文利用1960 - 2019年172个国家的面板数据,实证分析了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并探讨了其影响机制。我们发现,人口老龄化显著降低了经济增长率:65岁以上人口每增加1个百分点,人均经济增长率就会下降2.6个百分点。我们考察了人口老龄化对经济增长影响的四个渠道,发现资本积累、劳动力供给和经济结构三个渠道的作用显著,而技术进步和人力资本积累的作用似乎不显著。我们还发现,不同收入水平的国家之间的影响存在显著的异质性:中等收入和高收入国家的影响在统计上显著,而低收入国家则不然。
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引用次数: 10
A global perspective on central bank digital currency 央行数字货币的全球视角
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1870279
D. K. Lee, Li Yan, Yu Wang
ABSTRACT This paper discusses the key considerations of CBDC design to balance benefits and risks and presents best practices in CBDC design from a global perspective. Using China’s CBDC as an illustration, this paper discusses two-tier or multi-tier ledger design and proposes ten enablers of mass adoption and successful implementation. This proposed design allows central banks to manage the process flow, focus on the monitoring and control, without bearing all the load or exposing to over-centralized risks. It concludes that CBDC will be the primary tool in the future digital economy, and countries that are conversant with the technology will have a competitive advantage. Learning from the implementation, continuously reviewing the existing regulation, and improvising whenever international dynamics change the landscape are vital attributes of a successful implementation.
摘要本文讨论了CBDC设计中平衡利益和风险的关键考虑因素,并从全球角度介绍了CBDC的最佳实践。本文以中国的CBDC为例,讨论了双层或多层账本的设计,并提出了大规模采用和成功实施的十个促成因素。这种拟议的设计使中央银行能够管理流程,专注于监测和控制,而不会承担所有负载或暴露于过度集中的风险。它的结论是,CBDC将是未来数字经济的主要工具,熟悉该技术的国家将具有竞争优势。从实施中吸取教训,不断审查现有法规,并在国际形势发生变化时即兴发挥,这些都是成功实施的重要特征。
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引用次数: 48
Trade related sectorial infrastructure and exports of belt and road countries: does belt and road initiatives make this relation structurally instable? 与贸易相关的行业基础设施和“一带一路”国家的出口:“一带一路”倡议是否使这种关系在结构上不稳定?
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1840014
F. Rehman, A. Noman
ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of infrastructure on export in Belt & Road countries during 1990–2017 by applying System GMM approach. The results confirmed the significant and positive impact of aggregate and sub-indices (i.e., transport, telecommunication, energy and financial sector) of infrastructure on export in total sample as well is in grouped samples (like Asia, Europe and Middle East, and Africa). Most importantly, this study also examines the pre and post strategy of Belt and Road initiative (BRI) in total sample of belt and road countries. The empirical outcomes reveal that the coefficient of aggregate and all other sub-indices of infrastructure improved due to BRI which in turn encourage export in the selected economies. Furthermore, the control variables of exchange rate, per capita GDP, domestic investment, and institutional quality have also significant effect on export, which strengthen the role of infrastructure in promoting export in belt & road economies.
本文运用系统GMM方法,研究了1990-2017年“一带一路”沿线国家基础设施对出口的影响。结果证实了基础设施的总指数和分项指数(即交通、电信、能源和金融部门)对总样本出口的显著和积极影响,以及分组样本(如亚洲、欧洲和中东以及非洲)。最重要的是,本研究还在“一带一路”沿线国家的总样本中考察了“一带一路”倡议的前后战略。实证结果表明,由于“一带一路”,基础设施的总系数和所有其他子指数都有所改善,这反过来又鼓励了所选经济体的出口。此外,汇率、人均GDP、国内投资和制度质量等控制变量对出口也有显著影响,这强化了基础设施对“一带一路”经济体出口的促进作用。
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引用次数: 19
The impacts of the US dollar index and the investors’ expectations on the AH Premium – a macro perspective 美元指数和投资者预期对澳元溢价的影响——宏观视角
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1804709
Zhang Xuechun, Jiang Yandong, Lv Tingting
ABSTRACT This paper aims to provide a macro perspective to explanations of the AH premium, that is, the A and H share price differences of cross-listed companies, particularly the surge of the AH Premium Index after 2015: after the initiation of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect (SH Connect) in November 2014, the AH Premium Index jumped from 115.8 to 126.4, with a significant decline in its variance. We find that the impacts of US Dollar Index shocks dominated the overall changes in the AH premium on an individual equity basis over 2007–2019. Moreover, the US Dollar Index explains 50%-70% of the changes in the AH Premium Index, and investors’ expectations of the Chinese economy add another 10% to the explanatory power. Segregating the impact of the US Dollar Index, the average AH Premium Index only increased 2.7 percentage points, from 98.8 to 101.5. Further, after the initiation of SH Connect, the prices of cross-listed shares have been more responsive to exchange rate information. Over a longer term, SH Connect may have reduced the impacts of the US Dollar Index and increased the impacts of effective prices on equity prices. These findings demonstrate that hedging foreign exchange risks is the main reason for investment in H shares of mainland firms and, as a result, enhancing RMB foreign exchange rate flexibility is the core component as well as precondition for financial market opening in China. When market conditions permit, policy makers and regulators should consider a pilot program allowing investors to arbitrage the H shares of mainland firms with the AH premium in a reasonable range. This may further reduce the AH premium and enable the share prices to converge in the long run.
摘要本文旨在提供一个宏观视角来解释AH溢价,即交叉上市公司的a股和H股价格差异,特别是2015年后AH溢价指数的飙升:2014年11月沪港通开通后,AH溢价指数从115.8跃升至126.4,其方差显著下降。我们发现,2007-2009年期间,美元指数冲击的影响主导了个人股本基础上AH溢价的总体变化。此外,美元指数解释了AH溢价指数50%-70%的变化,投资者对中国经济的预期又增加了10%的解释力。除去美元指数的影响,平均AH溢价指数仅上升2.7个百分点,从98.8升至101.5。此外,沪港通启动后,交叉上市股票的价格对汇率信息的反应更大。从长远来看,沪港通可能减少了美元指数的影响,并增加了有效价格对股票价格的影响。这些发现表明,对冲外汇风险是内地企业投资H股的主要原因,因此,增强人民币汇率灵活性是中国金融市场开放的核心组成部分和前提。在市场条件允许的情况下,政策制定者和监管机构应该考虑一项试点计划,允许投资者在AH溢价合理的范围内套利大陆公司的H股。这可能会进一步降低AH溢价,并使股价从长远来看趋于一致。
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引用次数: 3
Trade and life expectancy in China: a cointegration analysis 中国贸易与预期寿命的协整分析
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1783745
M. Tahir
ABSTRACT The purpose behind this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between trade openness and life expectancy for the Chinese economy. Data are collected for the period 1970–2015. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Modeling technique is utilized to find out the presence of long- and short-run relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. The findings indicated a stable long-run positive relationship between trade openness and life expectancy. Government expenditures, number of physicians and human capital growth have also positively and significantly impacted life expectancy. Similarly, growth of employment and number of beds in hospitals have influenced life expectancy negatively. Moreover, in the short run, government expenditures, growth of employment, number of physicians and human capital growth have maintained their relationship with life expectancy both in terms of coefficient signs and significance level while the relationship between trade openness, number of hospital beds and life expectancy is reversed.
摘要本文旨在实证检验贸易开放与中国经济预期寿命之间的关系。数据收集时间为1970-2015年。利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)建模技术分析了贸易开放程度与预期寿命之间存在的长期和短期关系。研究结果表明,贸易开放程度与预期寿命之间存在长期稳定的正相关关系。政府支出、医生数量和人力资本增长也对预期寿命产生了积极而显著的影响。同样,就业和医院床位数量的增长也对预期寿命产生了负面影响。此外,在短期内,政府支出、就业增长、医生数量和人力资本增长与预期寿命的关系在系数符号和显著性水平上都保持不变,而贸易开放、医院床位数与预期寿命的关系则相反。
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引用次数: 10
Does trade policy related uncertainty affect international trade? Evidence from the US-China commodity trade 与贸易政策相关的不确定性是否影响国际贸易?来自美中商品贸易的证据
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1786618
S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer
ABSTRACT This study examines the impacts of US and China trade policy uncertainties on the US’s commodity level bilateral trade balances (henceforth, BTBs) with China. To this end, newly created trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU) indexes for both countries are used and the nonlinear ARDL model is applied. Empirical findings indicate that the impacts of US and China TPU indexes on US’s aggregated and disaggregated data BTBs are mostly different. The aggregated data model finds that increases in the US TPU index worsen US’s BTB. However, disaggregated models find ‘improvements’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 3 commodities out of 10. Similarly, while the aggregated data model finds that increases in China’s TPU index improves US’s BTB, disaggregated models find ‘worsen’ in 4 and ‘no impacts’ in 5 commodities our of 10. Furthermore, increases in the US’s TPU index worsen US BTB the most in commodity beverages and tobacco.
摘要本研究探讨了中美贸易政策的不确定性对中美商品层面双边贸易差额(以下简称BTBs)的影响。为此,本文使用了两国新创建的贸易政策不确定性(以下简称TPU)指数,并采用了非线性ARDL模型。实证结果表明,中美两国TPU指数对美国综合数据和分类数据的影响差异较大。综合数据模型发现,美国TPU指数的上升恶化了美国的BTB。然而,分类模型发现,10种商品中有4种“有所改善”,3种“没有影响”。同样,虽然汇总数据模型发现中国TPU指数的增长改善了美国的BTB,但分解模型发现,10种商品中有4种商品“恶化”,5种商品“没有影响”。此外,美国TPU指数的上升使美国商品饮料和烟草的BTB恶化得最厉害。
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引用次数: 6
Who will win from the trade war? Analysis of the US–China trade war from a micro perspective 谁将在贸易战中获胜?中美贸易战的微观分析
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1785073
V. Archana
ABSTRACT Over the past two years, China and the US are going on a trade war imposing tariffs on one another’s goods and this is hurting each other’s businesses. The focus of the present paper is to analyse the costs and benefits of tariff policy changes by the two economies. A partial equilibrium model approach based on highly disaggregated data shows that when China and the US are moving rapidly towards tariff imposition, it is largely deleterious from both the economy’s perspective in terms of trade and welfare. If we compare both the economies, the losses would be considerably higher for the US than China. However, trade liberalization is clearly associated with improved trade flows in the US and additional welfare gains in China. China would gain particularly in consumer goods, industrial goods and agricultural goods whereas the US would be better off opening its consumer goods and industrial goods.
摘要在过去的两年里,中美正在进行一场贸易战,对彼此的商品征收关税,这对彼此的企业造成了伤害。本文的重点是分析两个经济体关税政策变化的成本和收益。基于高度分类数据的部分均衡模型方法表明,当中国和美国迅速走向加征关税时,从贸易和福利的角度来看,这在很大程度上是有害的。如果我们比较这两个经济体,美国的损失将大大高于中国。然而,贸易自由化显然与美国贸易流动的改善和中国福利的增加有关。中国将特别受益于消费品、工业品和农产品,而美国则会更好地开放其消费品和工业品。
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引用次数: 10
CEJ special issue: policy and regulatory reforms for green economic transition in China CEJ特刊:中国绿色经济转型的政策和监管改革
IF 3.3 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2020.1766201
Jintao Xu
The two decades between 2010 and 2030 are critical turning period for China’s economic transition. At the beginning of this period, talk about how the existing economic growth model was no longer s...
从2010年到2030年的20年是中国经济转型的关键转折期。在这一时期开始时,谈谈现有的经济增长模式如何不再是可持续的。。。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
China Economic Journal
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