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Risk-informed evaluation of tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies 海啸疏散风险缓解策略的风险知情评估
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2127270
Zhenqiang Wang, G. Jia
ABSTRACT This paper proposes the risk-informed evaluation of different tsunami evacuation risk mitigation strategies to facilitate the identification of effective strategies that are robust to uncertainties. The tsunami evacuation risk (in terms of casualty rate) is used as a quantitative performance measure to compare different mitigation strategies. An improved agent-based model is used to simulate the tsunami evacuation. A simulation-based framework is used to quantify the tsunami evacuation risk, and various uncertainties associated with the evacuation are explicitly considered. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical risk factors and guide the selection of candidate mitigation strategies. The concepts of importance sampling and augmented sample-based approach are used to efficiently evaluate the evacuation risk under different candidate strategies. The risk-informed evaluation of mitigation strategies is illustrated for the tsunami evacuation in Seaside, Oregon, where strategies such as route widening, bridge retrofit, building vertical shelter, preparedness education, and evacuation drill are compared.
摘要本文提出对不同的海啸疏散风险缓解策略进行风险知情评估,以便于确定对不确定性具有稳健性的有效策略。海啸疏散风险(根据伤亡率)被用作量化绩效衡量标准,以比较不同的缓解策略。采用改进的基于agent的模型对海啸疏散过程进行了模拟。基于模拟的框架用于量化海啸疏散风险,并明确考虑了与疏散相关的各种不确定性。进行敏感性分析以确定关键风险因素,并指导候选缓解策略的选择。使用重要性抽样和基于增广样本的方法的概念来有效地评估不同候选策略下的疏散风险。针对俄勒冈州Seaside的海啸疏散,对缓解策略的风险知情评估进行了说明,对路线拓宽、桥梁改造、建造垂直避难所、准备教育和疏散演习等策略进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
From European critical infrastructure protection to the resilience of European critical entities: what does it mean? 从欧洲关键基础设施保护到欧洲关键实体的弹性:这意味着什么?
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2128562
C. Pursiainen, Eero Kytömaa
ABSTRACT The article is a public policy analysis of the development of legislation on critical infrastructure in the European Union (EU), covering 27 developed countries. More precisely, it concerns the 2022 CER Directive “on the resilience of critical entities’. This directive replaced the 2008 ECI Directive ‘on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructure and the assessment of the need to improve their protection’. We ask what is at stake in this process of moving from one directive to another. Why has the concept of protection been replaced by the concept of resilience, and why has the concept of critical infrastructure been replaced by the newly invented euro-concept of ‘critical entity’? In the concluding section we discuss the European integration dimension of this new directive; what does this development in the CI domain tell us about the current dynamics of European integration, and how it could be explained?
本文是对欧盟(EU) 27个发达国家关键基础设施立法发展的公共政策分析。更准确地说,它涉及2022年CER指令“关于关键实体的弹性”。该指令取代了2008年ECI指令“关于识别和指定欧洲关键基础设施以及评估改善其保护需求的指令”。我们问,在从一个指令转向另一个指令的过程中,什么是利害攸关的。为什么保护的概念被弹性的概念所取代,为什么关键基础设施的概念被新发明的欧元概念“关键实体”所取代?在结论部分,我们将讨论这一新指令的欧洲一体化维度;关于当前欧洲一体化的动态,CI领域的发展告诉了我们什么?如何解释它?
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引用次数: 4
Assessing the economic ripple effects of critical infrastructure failures using the dynamic inoperability input-output model: a case study of the Taal Volcano eruption 使用动态不可操作性投入产出模型评估关键基础设施故障的经济连锁反应:以塔尔火山爆发为例
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2127999
J. Santos, K. I. Z. Roquel, Albert Lamberte, R. Tan, K. Aviso, J. F. Tapia, Christine Alyssa Solis, K. Yu
ABSTRACT Critical infrastructure systems are essential in sustaining people’s livelihoods and the operation of economic sectors. In this paper, we extend the dynamic inoperability IO model (DIIM), we evaluate the resilience of economic sectors given the initial functionality loss and recovery time of an infrastructure. The resulting model is applied in a case study of the 2020 eruption of Taal Volcano in the Philippines. The initial inoperability and recovery period parameters are used in the 14-sector DIIM. The dynamic recovery behaviors of the sectors are plotted over the disaster timeline based on two metrics: (1) economic loss, which is the monetary value of the damage; and (2) inoperability, which is the dimensionless loss relative to the total production output of each sector. The DIIM template and case study results from this paper can provide policy insights to enhance disaster resilience planning for future disasters.
摘要关键的基础设施系统对于维持人们的生计和经济部门的运作至关重要。在本文中,我们扩展了动态不可操作性IO模型(DIIM),在给定基础设施的初始功能损失和恢复时间的情况下,我们评估了经济部门的弹性。由此产生的模型被应用于2020年菲律宾塔尔火山爆发的案例研究。在14扇区DIIM中使用初始不可操作性和恢复周期参数。基于两个指标绘制了各部门在灾害时间线上的动态恢复行为:(1)经济损失,即损失的货币价值;以及(2)不可操作性,这是相对于每个部门的总生产产出的无量纲损失。本文的DIIM模板和案例研究结果可以为加强未来灾害的抗灾能力规划提供政策见解。
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引用次数: 3
Institutional foundations of adaptive planning: exploration of flood planning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas, USA 适应性规划的制度基础:美国德克萨斯州格兰德河谷下游洪水规划的探索
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2180249
Ashley D. Ross, A. Nejat, Virgie Greb
ABSTRACT Given the risk posed by escalating climate conditions, there is a need to assess how localities integrate adaptive planning into hazard mitigation and how this is enabled or constrained by existing planning institutions. We explore this for flood planning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, United States – a largely underresourced and highly socioeconomically vulnerable area. Using Natural Language Processing to analyze county and regional hazard plans as well as transcripts of regional flood planning meetings, we find that adaptive planning is largely absent in the study area. Like many localities in the U.S., the communities in the study area have approached flood planning in static terms that do not fully consider future uncertainties; failed to engage diverse participation in planning; and neglected to pursue co-benefits possible with flood mitigation and other sectors. Critically, this may be a product of traditional planning institutions as well as limited local capacities.
鉴于不断升级的气候条件所带来的风险,有必要评估地方如何将适应性规划纳入危害缓解,以及现有规划机构如何实现或限制这一目标。我们在美国德克萨斯州下里约热内卢格兰德河谷的洪水规划中探讨了这一点——这是一个资源严重不足、社会经济高度脆弱的地区。利用自然语言处理技术分析县域和区域灾害规划以及区域洪水规划会议记录,我们发现在研究区域适应性规划在很大程度上是缺失的。像美国的许多地方一样,研究区域的社区以静态的方式进行洪水规划,没有充分考虑未来的不确定性;未能让不同的人参与规划;而忽略了追求与防洪和其他部门可能产生的协同效益。关键的是,这可能是传统规划机构和有限的地方能力的产物。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated framework for bridge infrastructure resilience analysis against seismic hazard 桥梁基础设施抗地震灾害弹性分析的集成框架
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2126624
Saiful Arif Khan, G. Kabir, M. Billah, Subhrajit Dutta
ABSTRACT Resilient bridge infrastructure is a fundamental component of an uninterrupted transportation system. Thus, assessing the resilience of bridge infrastructure against natural hazards is crucial for transportation agencies. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to develop an integrated framework for analyzing the bridge infrastructure resilience against seismic hazards. The Dempster-Shafer method has been incorporated with the Best Worst Method to achieve this objective and accommodate uncertainty. At first, various resilience criteria have been identified based on an extensive literature review. The weights of the resilience criteria have been determined using the Best Worth Method based on the response provided by the experts. After that, the Dempster-Shafer rule of combination has been used to assess the seismic resilience of a highway bridge by proposing a Bridge Resilience Index. This proposed resilience framework can support transportation agencies in taking effective strategies against seismic hazards.
弹性桥梁基础设施是不间断交通系统的基本组成部分。因此,评估桥梁基础设施抵御自然灾害的能力对交通运输机构来说至关重要。因此,本研究的主要目的是开发一个综合框架来分析桥梁基础设施对地震灾害的恢复能力。Dempster-Shafer方法已与最佳最差方法相结合,以实现这一目标并适应不确定性。首先,根据广泛的文献综述,确定了各种弹性标准。根据专家提供的响应,采用最佳价值法确定了弹性标准的权重。在此基础上,运用Dempster-Shafer组合规则,提出了桥梁回弹性指数,对某公路桥梁的抗震回弹性进行了评价。这个拟议的复原力框架可以支持运输机构采取有效的战略来应对地震灾害。
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引用次数: 3
Understanding perspectives on climate hazards, water management, and adaptive transformation in an exurban community 了解远郊社区对气候危害、水资源管理和适应性转型的看法
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2126921
A. Ross, Heejun Chang, Alida Cantor
ABSTRACT Climate change and exurban development pose challenges for water resources. This paper examines the perceptions and adaptive responses to those stressors among stakeholders engaging in exurban water management. Drawing on 42 interviews with planners, water managers, and local experts, we analyze perspectives on water-related hazards in the Hood River watershed, Oregon, and identify contrasting approaches to adaptation. Interview subjects identified climate-related hazards as most significant, with relatively less – although not insignificant – concern about development. Interviewees understood the role of the Watershed Group in four different ways: resistance to change, sustaining the present system, adapting to improve resilience, or transformational adaptation. Despite tensions between these approaches, the Watershed Group empowers local actors, offering grounds for social development. This study indicates that exurban areas may be poised to experiment and develop methods of collaborative resource management that reconcile different interests toward transformational adaptations to the dual challenges of climate change and urbanization.
气候变化和城郊发展对水资源构成挑战。本文考察了参与城郊水资源管理的利益相关者对这些压力源的认知和适应性反应。通过对42位规划者、水资源管理者和当地专家的访谈,我们分析了俄勒冈州胡德河流域与水有关的危害的观点,并确定了不同的适应方法。访谈对象认为与气候有关的危害最为严重,而对发展的关注相对较少(尽管并非微不足道)。受访者从四种不同的角度理解流域集团的作用:抵制变革、维持现有系统、适应以提高复原力或转型适应。尽管这些方法之间存在紧张关系,但分水岭集团赋予了当地行动者权力,为社会发展提供了基础。该研究表明,远郊地区可以尝试和开发协作资源管理方法,以协调不同利益,以适应气候变化和城市化的双重挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Developing adaptive resilience in infrastructure systems: an approach to quantify long-term benefits 在基础设施系统中发展适应性弹性:一种量化长期效益的方法
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2126631
Prerna Singh, A. Amekudzi-Kennedy, B. Ashuri, M. Chester, S. Labi, Thomas A. Wall
ABSTRACT To enable systems to adapt to changing future conditions, ensuring adaptive capacity in resilience planning is critical. This paper presents an approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of adaptive resilience in infrastructure systems under future uncertainty. The methodology uses long timeframe assessment methods based on NPV and approaches to quantifying different levels of uncertainty along with multi-criteria assessment methods. The approach is demonstrated using three case studies, where investments have focused on different aspects of adaptive resilience in various infrastructure systems. The results demonstrate the increasing benefits of adaptive strategies over time with ongoing learning and the evolving nature of resilience needs. The presented approach can be used by decision-makers in multiple infrastructure sectors. A flexible approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of building adaptive capacity to enhance resilience, this methodology can be a useful tool for practitioners and policymakers to present a business case for long-term adaptive resilience investments..
摘要为了使系统能够适应不断变化的未来条件,确保弹性规划中的自适应能力至关重要。本文提出了一种评估未来不确定性下基础设施系统自适应弹性长期效益的方法。该方法使用基于NPV的长时间框架评估方法和量化不同不确定性水平的方法以及多标准评估方法。该方法通过三个案例研究进行了论证,其中投资集中在各种基础设施系统的适应性弹性的不同方面。研究结果表明,随着时间的推移,适应性策略的好处随着持续学习和恢复力需求的演变而增加。所提出的方法可供多个基础设施部门的决策者使用。该方法是一种灵活的方法,用于评估建立适应能力以增强复原力的长期效益,对于从业者和决策者来说,它可以成为一种有用的工具,为长期适应复原力投资提供商业案例。。
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引用次数: 1
Impacts of varying network parameters on the vulnerability and resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems 不同网络参数对相互依赖的关键基础设施系统脆弱性和弹性的影响
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2126628
Cynthia Lee, I. Tien
ABSTRACT Critical infrastructure systems are complex and subjected to evolving risks and hazards, which makes anticipating their behavior difficult. To prioritize among actions that increase system resilience, it is critical to understand their impacts on parameters defining a network and on anticipated network performance. In this paper, the authors investigate the impacts of variations in three parameters on network vulnerability: component vulnerabilities, service interdependency redundancies, and system link configuration. The advances of this work compared to prior studies include: 1) The impacts of parameters varied across a range of values at the component level are evaluated considering component functionality and connectivity; 2) quantitative analyses of component performance as parameters vary are investigated based on system redundancies; and 3) probabilistic system interdependencies are analyzed through a Bayesian network that considers component pathways. Results quantify effects of changes in component vulnerabilities and dependencies and are used to discuss impacts on system resilience.
摘要关键基础设施系统是复杂的,容易受到不断变化的风险和危害,这使得预测其行为变得困难。为了在提高系统弹性的行动中确定优先级,了解它们对定义网络的参数和预期网络性能的影响至关重要。在本文中,作者研究了三个参数的变化对网络漏洞的影响:组件漏洞、服务相关性冗余和系统链路配置。与先前的研究相比,这项工作的进展包括:1)考虑到组件的功能性和连接性,评估了组件级别的一系列值中参数变化的影响;2) 基于系统冗余度,研究了参数变化时组件性能的定量分析;以及3)通过考虑组件路径的贝叶斯网络来分析概率系统相互依赖性。结果量化了组件漏洞和依赖性变化的影响,并用于讨论对系统弹性的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Developing the framework for quantification of the resilience of the access to healthcare network 制定量化医疗保健网络复原力的框架
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2126620
Jiduo Xing, S. T. Ng
ABSTRACT The necessity of timely access to care highlights the importance of studying the resilience of the access to healthcare networks. Therefore, this research aims to develop a framework for quantification of the resilience of the access to care by organizing hierarchical healthcare facilities into a direct network. Both proxy and direct measures are employed to provide a holistic insight for decision-makers. Trophic coherence is introduced to represent the resilience level of the whole network. Then, the accessibility resilience is measured through a network recovery model. Finally, weighted directed networks are established to represent the accessible patient transfer under the scenarios of the general, maternal and elderly health services. The findings show the consistency between the proxy and direct measures through a correlation analysis for verification. Moreover, the results suggest that the healthcare accessibility network of the general health service exhibits better resilience performance compared with the other two.
摘要及时获得医疗服务的必要性凸显了研究获得医疗网络的弹性的重要性。因此,本研究旨在通过将分级医疗机构组织成一个直接网络,开发一个量化获得护理的弹性的框架。代理和直接测量都被用来为决策者提供全面的见解。引入营养一致性来表示整个网络的弹性水平。然后,通过网络恢复模型来衡量可访问性弹性。最后,建立了加权定向网络,以表示在普通、孕产妇和老年卫生服务场景下可获得的患者转移。研究结果通过相关性分析验证了代理和直接测量之间的一致性。此外,研究结果表明,与其他两个相比,普通医疗服务的医疗可及性网络表现出更好的弹性性能。
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引用次数: 0
Designing inclusion and continuity for resilient communication during disasters 为灾害期间的弹性通信设计包容性和连续性
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2124717
Indushree Banerjee, M. Warnier, F. Brazier
ABSTRACT This paper addresses the challenge of establishing a resilient disaster communication system that transitions seamlessly from a phone-based ad hoc network to any portable infrastructure and back. For this purpose, this paper presents a value-based design of an autonomous and self-organized protocol (SOS-hybrid). This design ensures seamless integration between various communication networks taking local context into account to increase inclusion and continuity of connectivity. SOS-hybrid has two benefits. First, local self-organization can adapt to the local situation in a disaster area. Second, context-awareness can fill in the spatial gaps of coverage associated with top-down approaches. An agent-based modelling approach was used to develop the simulation of the proposed communication network to evaluate the impact of introducing SOS-hybrid in the aftermath of a disaster. SOS-hybrid allows phones to simultaneously provide the benefits of (i) ad hoc mobile networking, allowing hard-to-reach people to connect, and (ii) infrastructure-based communication, allowing phones to more efficiently send messages over long distances. Benefits include two-way communication between community and rescue operators, inclusion and continued connectivity for immobile citizens stuck in isolated out of coverage areas, and seamless transition without loss of messages. Graphical Abstrart
摘要本文解决了建立一个有弹性的灾难通信系统的挑战,该系统可以从基于电话的自组织网络无缝过渡到任何便携式基础设施。为此,本文提出了一种基于价值的自主自组织协议(SOS混合协议)的设计。这种设计确保了各种通信网络之间的无缝集成,同时考虑了本地环境,以增加连接的包容性和连续性。SOS混合动力有两个好处。首先,局部自组织可以适应灾区的局部情况。其次,情境意识可以填补与自上而下方法相关的覆盖范围的空间空白。使用了一种基于代理的建模方法来开发所提出的通信网络的模拟,以评估在灾难发生后引入SOS混合的影响。SOS混合功能使手机能够同时提供以下好处:(i)特设移动网络,使难以联系的人能够连接;(ii)基于基础设施的通信,使手机能够更有效地远距离发送信息。好处包括社区和救援运营商之间的双向沟通,为被困在隔离的覆盖范围外的无法行动的公民提供包容和持续的连接,以及无缝过渡而不会丢失信息。图形文章摘要
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引用次数: 0
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Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure
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