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Electric utility valuations of investments to reduce the risks of long-duration, widespread power interruptions, part I: Background 电力公司的投资估值,以减少长期的风险,广泛的电力中断,第一部分:背景
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-19 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2148450
A. Sanstad, B. Leibowicz, Q. Zhu, P. Larsen, J. Eto
ABSTRACT Power industry stakeholders are devoting increasing attention to the risks of long-duration, widespread interruptions (LDWIs) in electricity service. There is concern that these risks are heightening due to more frequent and severe extreme weather events. Numerous studies have examined various aspects of the problem, primarily from an engineering and conceptual perspective. This is the first of two papers reporting the results of a study of LDWIs that focuses on their economic aspects, takes an empirical approach, and includes consideration of institutional factors affecting utilities’ efforts to reduce their vulnerabilities to these disruptions. This paper presents background on the problem, including cost concepts relevant to economic valuation of measures to reduce the risks of LDWIs, valuation methods, and the role of the concept of ‘resilience’ in shaping analysis in this area. This material provides context and motivation for the second paper, which reports on a series of case studies.
电力行业利益相关者越来越关注电力服务中长时间、大范围中断(ldwi)的风险。人们担心,由于极端天气事件更加频繁和严重,这些风险正在加剧。许多研究主要从工程和概念的角度考察了这个问题的各个方面。这是报告ldwi研究结果的两篇论文中的第一篇,该研究侧重于其经济方面,采用实证方法,并考虑了影响公用事业公司减少对这些中断的脆弱性的制度因素。本文介绍了该问题的背景,包括与降低ldwi风险的措施的经济评估相关的成本概念,评估方法,以及“弹性”概念在形成该领域分析中的作用。该材料为第二篇论文提供了背景和动机,该论文报告了一系列案例研究。
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引用次数: 1
Developing an equity-focused metric for quantifying the social burden of infrastructure disruptions 制定以公平为重点的指标,量化基础设施中断造成的社会负担
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2157116
S. Clark, Sara K.E. Peterson, M. Shelly, Robert Jeffers
ABSTRACT Communities in the United States are increasingly dependent upon aging infrastructure systems and challenged by more frequent and intense extreme weather events due in part to climate change. However, prioritizing resilience-related investments in these systems is hindered by the lack of performance metrics that objectively quantify the societal outcomes of infrastructure disruptions, such as power or water outages. This article outlines the process of developing an equity-focused resilience metric that captures the social consequences of infrastructure service disruptions on households. Theoretically grounded in the Capabilities Approach (CA) theory of human development, this metric focuses on estimating the burden of post-event adaptations taken by households to maintain their basic capabilities (e.g., ability to access food and water) and fulfill important household functionings (e.g., maintaining health and well-being). A travel cost method (TCM) that considers travel-related expenses, direct out-of-pocket expenses, and opportunity costs is presented as a way to measure the value of locations (e.g., grocery stores, emergency shelters, etc.) that provide services that enable households to maintain capabilities. A gravity-weighted model of accessibility is also discussed as a way to capture the value of having multiple potential service locations from which to choose and offers a way to capture important factors impacting a household’s ability to access important goods and services during outages. The proposed social burden metric equation incorporates the valuation principles of the TCM into the framework of the gravity model, resulting in a novel metric with strong methodological heritage. The article concludes by discussing the types of data needed to populate the proposed metric and future applications of this work that could inform the resilient infrastructure investments and planning necessary to mitigate the social burdens of power outages on vulnerable populations.
美国社区越来越依赖老化的基础设施系统,并受到越来越频繁和强烈的极端天气事件的挑战,部分原因是气候变化。然而,缺乏客观量化基础设施中断(如停电或停水)的社会后果的绩效指标,阻碍了这些系统中与弹性相关的优先投资。本文概述了制定以股票为重点的弹性指标的过程,该指标捕捉了基础设施服务中断对家庭的社会后果。在人类发展能力方法(CA)理论的理论基础上,该指标侧重于估计家庭为维持其基本能力(例如,获得食物和水的能力)和履行重要的家庭职能(例如,维持健康和福祉)而采取的事后适应负担。提出了一种考虑旅行相关费用、直接自付费用和机会成本的旅行成本法(TCM),作为衡量提供服务使家庭能够维持能力的地点(如杂货店、应急避难所等)价值的方法。本文还讨论了可达性的重力加权模型,作为一种捕捉拥有多个可供选择的潜在服务地点的价值的方法,并提供了一种捕捉影响家庭在停电期间获取重要商品和服务能力的重要因素的方法。提出的社会负担度量方程将中医的评估原则纳入重力模型的框架,从而产生了一个具有强大方法论遗产的新度量。文章最后讨论了建立拟议指标所需的数据类型,以及这项工作的未来应用,这些数据可以为弹性基础设施投资和规划提供信息,以减轻停电对弱势群体造成的社会负担。
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引用次数: 5
Decoupled net present value: protecting assets against climate change risk by consistently capturing the value of resilient and adaptable investments 脱钩净现值:通过持续捕捉弹性和适应性投资的价值来保护资产免受气候变化风险
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-09 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2148453
D. Espinoza, J. Rojo, W. Phillips, Andrew Eil
ABSTRACT There is growing awareness that traditional valuation methods based on discounted cash flows using constant risk-adjusted discount rates struggle to account for climate-related risks when assessing long-term investments in physical assets and infrastructure. Worst yet, such methods fail to consider numerous financial benefits accruing from investment in resilience and adaptation, categorizing such expenditures as sunk costs that reduce investors’ returns. Such traditional valuation methods encourage investors to postpone or forgo entirely investing in resilience and adaptation. The decoupled net present value (DNPV) method incorporates risk and risk-reduction measures into project valuations in clear and compelling financial terms. By quantifying both (i) risk exposures of assets to hazards and (ii) the reduction of such exposure through up-front investments, DNPV recasts the financial impact of risk-reduction measures. Thus, the benefits of risk-reducing investments such as adaptation and resilience can be fully valorized in project-level accounting, removing a significant barrier facing such investments today.
摘要人们越来越意识到,在评估实物资产和基础设施的长期投资时,基于贴现现金流的传统估值方法(使用恒定的风险调整贴现率)难以考虑气候相关风险。最糟糕的是,这些方法没有考虑到在恢复力和适应方面的投资所带来的众多财务效益,将这些支出归类为降低投资者回报的沉没成本。这种传统的估值方法鼓励投资者推迟或完全放弃对韧性和适应性的投资。解耦净现值(DNPV)方法将风险和风险降低措施以明确和令人信服的财务条款纳入项目估值。通过量化(i)资产风险敞口和(ii)通过前期投资减少此类敞口,DNPV重塑了风险降低措施的财务影响。因此,可以在项目层面的会计中充分评估适应和恢复能力等降低风险投资的好处,消除当今此类投资面临的重大障碍。
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引用次数: 1
Financial allocation and network recovery for interdependent wastewater treatment infrastructure: development of resilience metrics 相互依赖的废水处理基础设施的财政分配和网络恢复:弹性指标的发展
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2148447
M. Karamouz, Mohammad Movahhed, Ali Elyasi
ABSTRACT The disrupted performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) when facing floods can cause complications in urban systems’ functioning. Therefore, utilities need to improve the resilience of their facilities and establish asset restoration plans. The present study aims at investigating two metrics to improve the WWTP’s resilience. An attribute-based resilience metric is devised using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (FMCDM) framework to attain a budget allocation proposition. A network model representing the interdependent infrastructure is also formulated to develop a performance-based metric. The network’s post-disaster behavior is simulated to obtain an asset restoration sequence (RS). The results indicate that considering imprecisions in experts’ views lowers the possibility of underestimation or overestimation of resilience improvement when allocating funds. Furthermore, prioritizing facilities’ restoration will increase WWTPs’ resilience. The proposed methodology, which is tested on Brooklyn, provides a resilient solution to some challenges in asset management and can be applicable to other coastal settings.
当面临洪水时,污水处理厂(WWTPs)的性能中断会导致城市系统功能的并发症。因此,公用事业公司需要提高其设施的恢复能力,并制定资产恢复计划。本研究旨在探讨两个指标,以提高污水处理厂的弹性。利用模糊多准则决策框架设计了一个基于属性的弹性度量,以获得预算分配方案。还制定了表示相互依赖的基础设施的网络模型,以开发基于性能的度量。模拟灾后网络行为,得到资产恢复序列(RS)。结果表明,在分配资金时,考虑专家意见的不准确性可以降低低估或高估弹性改善的可能性。此外,优先考虑设施的恢复将增加污水处理厂的恢复能力。提出的方法在布鲁克林进行了测试,为资产管理中的一些挑战提供了一个有弹性的解决方案,可以适用于其他沿海环境。
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引用次数: 0
Community-Scale Spatial Mapping to Prioritize Green and Grey Infrastructure Locations to Increase Flood Resilience 社区规模的空间测绘,优先考虑绿色和灰色基础设施位置,以提高抗洪能力
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-28 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2148449
Michelle Reckner, I. Tien
ABSTRACT With increasing investment in infrastructure to address flooding, including green and grey solutions, there are challenges in selecting the type and location of infrastructure. This paper proposes a method to prioritize locations for stormwater infrastructure. Compared to prior work, it considers both green and grey infrastructure and enables detailed spatial analysis of a community. It uses quantitative measures and includes the multiple potential benefits of green versus grey infrastructure. The method is applied to the coastal county of Chatham County, GA, USA. Results show how the methodology is used to select green or grey infrastructure solutions and highlight locations that should be prioritized for infrastructure investment. Analyses accounting for uncertainties in future climate projections and population estimates are also conducted. The method includes local community characteristics, results in clear placement locations, and with decision-maker input, enables solutions to be adapted as stakeholder priorities evolve to increase community flood resilience.
摘要随着对基础设施的投资不断增加,包括绿色和灰色解决方案,在选择基础设施的类型和位置方面存在挑战。本文提出了一种确定雨水基础设施位置的方法。与之前的工作相比,它同时考虑了绿色和灰色基础设施,并能够对社区进行详细的空间分析。它采用了量化指标,包括绿色基础设施与灰色基础设施的多重潜在效益。该方法应用于美国乔治亚州查塔姆县的沿海县。结果显示了该方法如何用于选择绿色或灰色基础设施解决方案,并突出了应优先进行基础设施投资的地点。还对未来气候预测和人口估计中的不确定性进行了分析。该方法包括当地社区特征,产生明确的安置位置,并在决策者的投入下,使解决方案能够随着利益相关者优先事项的发展而进行调整,以提高社区的抗洪能力。
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引用次数: 0
Critical facility accessibility and road criticality assessment considering flood-induced partial failure 考虑洪水局部破坏的关键设施可达性及道路临界性评价
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-25 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2149184
Utkarsh Gangwal, A. Siders, J. Horney, H. Michael, Shangjia Dong
ABSTRACT This paper examines communities’ accessibility to critical facilities such as hospitals, emergency medical services, and emergency shelters when facing flooding. We use travel speed reduction to account for flood-induced partial road failure. A modified betweenness centrality metric is also introduced to calculate the criticality of roads for connecting communities to critical facilities. The proposed model and metric are applied to the Delaware road network under 100-year floods. This model highlights the severe critical facility access loss risk due to flood isolation of facilities. The mapped post-flooding accessibility suggests a significant travel time increase to critical facilities and reveals disparities among communities, especially for vulnerable groups such as long-term care facility residents. We also identified critical roads that are vital for post-flooding access to critical facilities. The results of this research can help inform targeted infrastructure investment decisions and hazard mitigation strategies that contribute to equitable community resilience enhancement.
摘要本文考察了社区在面临洪水时对医院、紧急医疗服务和紧急避难所等关键设施的可及性。我们使用行驶速度降低来解释洪水引起的部分道路故障。还引入了一种修正的介数中心性度量来计算连接社区和关键设施的道路的关键性。所提出的模型和指标应用于100年一遇洪水下的特拉华州公路网。该模型强调了由于设施的洪水隔离而导致的严重关键设施通行损失风险。绘制的洪水后可达性地图表明,前往关键设施的旅行时间显著增加,并揭示了社区之间的差异,尤其是对于长期护理设施居民等弱势群体。我们还确定了关键道路,这些道路对洪水后进入关键设施至关重要。这项研究的结果有助于为有针对性的基础设施投资决策和减灾战略提供信息,有助于公平地提高社区抵御能力。
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引用次数: 4
Adaptive Pathways for Resilient Infrastructure in an Evolving Disasterscape 在不断变化的灾害环境中实现弹性基础设施的适应性路径
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2148951
Amit Prothi, Mona Chhabra Anand, Ratnesh Kumar
The human pursuit of greater well-being through better and faster growth paths for economic and social development is as old as the anthropocene itself. Infrastructure creation is at the core of this pursuit. However, infrastructure systems suffer due to disasters triggered by natural hazards, manmade events and impacts of climate change, compromising much of the development dividend of investments in these systems. To ensure that infrastructure can withstand predictable shocks, continue to provide essential services during crises and bounce back stronger to their full performance swiftly, there is a need to develop climate and disaster-resilient infrastructure. Infrastructure resilience is a dynamic concept with innate complex attributes, such as assurance of service delivery, interdependence between systems and long life of assets in dynamic environmental contexts. Complexities of infrastructure resilience are further compounded by uncertainty engendered by climate change, socio-political instabilities and economic growth. Given the scale of investment required, infrastructure development is typically undertaken with a 10 to 50-year horizon. However, rapid changes in environmental contexts and technological evolution, along with user expectations for faster and better services limit the extents of ‘long term’ thinking. A case in point is the current push for net zero energy transition that has triggered a shift towards cleaner energy sources such as hydrogen. However, hydrogen generation requires renewable energy sources such as wind to deliver on its environmental objectives fully and in coastal areas and island contexts, off-shore wind energy infrastructure is highly vulnerable to various hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis, rendering the entire net zero energy value chain at risk. Likewise, the unprecedented floods of 2021 in Ahr valley (Germany), New York (USA), Black Sea region (Turkey) and Kolhapur (India) are testimony that the past is no longer a good guide for the future. Analysis of past trends provide limited information to define the problem or the solutions we propose in the form of infrastructure systems. Such situations prompt the question: How do we develop resilient infrastructure for a not-so-distant, dynamic, and highly uncertain future?
人类通过更好更快的经济和社会发展增长途径追求更大的福祉,这与人类世本身一样古老。基础设施建设是这一追求的核心。然而,基础设施系统受到自然灾害、人为事件和气候变化影响引发的灾害的影响,损害了这些系统投资的大部分发展红利。为了确保基础设施能够承受可预测的冲击,在危机期间继续提供基本服务,并迅速恢复到更强劲的全面表现,有必要发展气候和抗灾基础设施。基础设施弹性是一个动态概念,具有内在的复杂属性,如服务提供的保证、系统之间的相互依存性以及动态环境中资产的长寿命。气候变化、社会政治不稳定和经济增长带来的不确定性进一步加剧了基础设施复原力的复杂性。考虑到所需的投资规模,基础设施开发通常需要10到50年的时间。然而,环境环境和技术发展的快速变化,以及用户对更快、更好服务的期望,限制了“长期”思维的范围。一个恰当的例子是目前推动净零能源转型,这引发了向氢等清洁能源的转变。然而,制氢需要风能等可再生能源来充分实现其环境目标,在沿海地区和岛屿环境中,离岸风能基础设施极易受到飓风和海啸等各种灾害的影响,使整个净零能源价值链面临风险。同样,2021年在Ahr valley(德国)、纽约(美国)、黑海地区(土耳其)和Kolhapur(印度)发生的前所未有的洪水证明,过去不再是未来的好指南。对过去趋势的分析提供了有限的信息来定义问题或我们以基础设施系统的形式提出的解决方案。这种情况引发了一个问题:我们如何为不那么遥远、充满活力和高度不确定的未来发展有弹性的基础设施?
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引用次数: 1
Disaster experiences, associated problems and lessons in southwestern coastal Bangladesh: exploring through participatory rural appraisal to enhance resilience 孟加拉国西南沿海地区的灾害经验、相关问题和教训:探讨通过参与式农村评估提高抗灾能力
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-22 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2138165
G. Parvin, Rajorshi Dasgupta, M. Abedin, Masashi Sakamoto, Bingunath Inairige, M. Kibria, Kumiko Fujita, Mrittika Basu, R. Shaw, H. Nakagawa
ABSTRACT The southwestern coastal part of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to different kinds of disasters due to the changing climatic conditions. With the lenses of rural communities here an approach to examine how were the different disasters experiences, what lesson they learnt and what are their present disaster associated problems and stakeholder’s networks they rely on to enhance their resilience. Qualitative data were collected through participatory rapid rural appraisal (100–150 persons), field observation, 12 focus group discussions (25–40 people/FGD), and key informant interviews (25 people) in four southwestern coastal districts and nine coastal villages of Bangladesh. Results showed that since long back to date drinking water crisis, poor roads, poverty, poor sanitation, and health problems are the main identified disaster-associated problems. After learning lessons from previous disaster experiences, the community people have improved and changed their practices mainly by storing emergency foods, house construction, and increasing disaster awareness. However, the coastal communities are combating with the problems that have both direct and indirect association with poor infrastructures. Therefore, the coastal communities urge and sketched for a better stakeholders’ supports and networks to minimize their problems and thus to enhance communities’ disaster resilience.
摘要由于气候条件的变化,孟加拉国西南沿海地区极易受到各种灾害的影响。从农村社区的角度来看,这是一种研究不同灾害经历的方法,他们吸取了什么教训,他们目前与灾害相关的问题是什么,以及他们依靠利益相关者的网络来提高他们的抗灾能力。定性数据是通过参与式快速农村评估(100-150人)、实地观察、12个焦点小组讨论(25-30人/FDG)和孟加拉国西南部四个沿海地区和九个沿海村庄的关键信息员访谈(25人)收集的。结果表明,自很久以前的饮用水危机以来,道路状况不佳、贫困、卫生条件差和健康问题是已确定的主要灾害相关问题。在吸取以往灾害经验教训后,社区人民主要通过储存应急食品、建造房屋和提高灾害意识来改进和改变他们的做法。然而,沿海社区正在努力解决与基础设施薄弱直接和间接相关的问题。因此,沿海社区敦促并勾画出更好的利益相关者支持和网络,以最大限度地减少他们的问题,从而提高社区的抗灾能力。
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引用次数: 4
Electric utility valuations of investments to reduce the risks of long-duration, widespread power interruptions, part II: Case studies 降低长期、大范围电力中断风险的电力公司投资估值,第二部分:案例研究
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2138163
B. Leibowicz, A. Sanstad, Q. Zhu, P. Larsen, J. Eto
ABSTRACT This is the second of two papers that study the economics of long-duration, widespread electric power interruptions (LDWIs) caused by extreme weather events in the U.S.A., and how utilities and regulators are evaluating measures to reduce the vulnerability of electricity infrastructure to such disruptions. In this paper, we review case studies of five jurisdictions in different U.S. states that experienced LDWIs over the past two decades, examining how these events have influenced utilities’ and regulators’ approaches to strengthening electricity infrastructure against potential future interruptions. We find that (i) most of the utilities do not estimate economic benefits of large-scale storm-hardening and other measures in terms of either avoided customer costs or regional economic impacts; (ii) the concept of ‘resilience’ plays little practical role in this type of decision-making; and (iii) institutional factors have a major influence on whether and how the economic benefits of storm-hardening and related measures are evaluated.
这是两篇论文中的第二篇,研究了美国极端天气事件造成的长时间、大范围电力中断(ldwi)的经济性,以及公用事业和监管机构如何评估减少电力基础设施对此类中断的脆弱性的措施。在本文中,我们回顾了在过去二十年中经历过ldwi的美国不同州的五个司法管辖区的案例研究,研究了这些事件如何影响公用事业公司和监管机构加强电力基础设施以应对未来潜在中断的方法。我们发现(i)大多数公用事业公司没有从避免客户成本或区域经济影响的角度估计大规模风暴强化和其他措施的经济效益;(ii)“弹性”概念在这类决策中几乎没有实际作用;(三)制度因素对是否以及如何评估风暴强化及相关措施的经济效益有重大影响。
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引用次数: 1
The impacts of coastal flooding and sea level rise on critical infrastructure: a novel storyline approach 沿海洪水和海平面上升对关键基础设施的影响:一种新颖的故事情节方法
IF 5.9 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-11-15 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2022.2142741
E. Koks, D. Le Bars, A. Essenfelder, S. Nirandjan, P. Sayers
ABSTRACT This study presents an event-based storyline framework to assess the influence of future climatic and socioeconomic conditions on coastal flood impacts to critical infrastructure. The framework combines well-established quantitative methods of sea level rise, coastal inundation, and critical infrastructure (CI) physical damage assessments into an integrated modelling approach. We apply our approach to re-imagine three historic events: storm Xaver, storm Xynthia , and a storm surge event along the coast of Emilia Romagna (Italy). Our results indicate that northern Germany would benefit mostly from coordinated adaptation action to reduce the flood impact, whereas the southwestern coast of France would find the highest damage reduction through asset-level ‘autonomous’ adaptation action. Our approach helps to improve the scientific understanding of how coastal flood risk are assessed and best managed, and forces a distillation of the science into an accessible narrative to support policymakers and asset owners to make progress towards more climate-resilient coastal communities.
本研究提出了一个基于事件的故事线框架,以评估未来气候和社会经济条件对沿海洪水对关键基础设施的影响。该框架将海平面上升、沿海淹没和关键基础设施(CI)物理损害评估的成熟定量方法结合到一个综合建模方法中。我们运用我们的方法来重新想象三个历史事件:风暴Xaver,风暴辛西娅,以及沿着艾米利亚罗马涅海岸的风暴潮事件(意大利)。我们的研究结果表明,德国北部将从减少洪水影响的协调适应行动中获益最多,而法国西南海岸将通过资产级别的“自主”适应行动获得最大的损失减少。我们的方法有助于提高对如何评估和最佳管理沿海洪水风险的科学理解,并迫使科学升华为可理解的叙述,以支持政策制定者和资产所有者朝着更具气候适应性的沿海社区取得进展。
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引用次数: 7
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Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure
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