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Predicting tree failure likelihood for utility risk mitigation via a convolutional neural network 通过卷积神经网络预测采油树故障可能性,降低公用事业风险
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2233759
Atanas Apostolov, Jimi B. Oke, Ryan Suttle, S. Arwade, B. Kane
ABSTRACT Critical to the resilience of utility power lines, tree failure assessments have historically been performed via costly manual inspections. In this paper, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict tree failure likelihood categories (Probable, Possible, Improbable) under three classification strategies. The CNN produced the best performance under the Probable/Possible vs. Improbable strategy, achieving a recall score of 0.82. We also perform a visual analysis of the predictions via Grad-CAM++ heatmaps, indicating an approach for incorporating interpretability into model selection. Benchmarking the results of our model against those produced by two state-of-the-art CNNs (ResNet-50 and Inception-v3), we show that our relatively simple model produces better results in a computational time that is three times faster. Via this novel framework, we demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence to automate and consequently reduce the costs of tree failure likelihood assessments in proximity to power lines, thereby promoting sustainable infrastructure.
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引用次数: 0
Special issue on adaptive planning for sustainable and resilient infrastructure i: an introduction 可持续和有弹性基础设施适应性规划特刊一:导言
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-06-10 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2218152
D. Trejo
Infrastructure are sustainable when they address present needs without sacrificing future needs. Infrastructure are resilient when they are able to recover from disasters brought by natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, cyclones, tornados, floodings and droughts), anthropogenic hazards (e.g., human errors, malevolent attacks), and are able to resist deterioration and reduced service. Sustainability and resilience are interdependent. Sustainability calls for parsimonious use of limited resources with minimal environmental impact while resiliency requires resources to ensure performance of the built environment. Both sustainability and resiliency are impacted by our changing environment. Adaptive and integrated disaster resilience, and thus sustainability, is dependent on designing and building resilience in a systematic, integrated, and dynamic manner. This Special Issue (SI) on Adaptive Planning for Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure I continues to seek to better understand how to integrate flexibility into infrastructure planning, design and construction under changing environmental conditions. This planning, design and construction must depend on future conditions and adaptive pathways must identify actions or processes that can be progressively implemented to produce inclusive, economical, resilient and sustainable infrastructure. This SI on Adaptive Planning for Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure I is a continuation of our initial SI on Adaptive Pathways for Resilient Infrastructure, sponsored by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI). This SI sought evidence-based science and engineering and case studies that promote adaptive pathways to target policymakers and practitioners. Like the initial SI, the ultimate objective of this SI is to implement these practices to enhance the robustness of methods and processes that result in sustainable and resilient infrastructure. This SI covers four general topics: development of planning tools to mitigate flood risks, development of planning tools to improve hazard vulnerability due to hurricanes, an assessment of wastewater management practices and how these practices can be modified to be adaptive, and the development of a model for efficient energy planning. Masterson et al. introduce a new approach for an evidence-based enhanced preparatory technique for developing improved practices for improved hurricane planning, referred to by the authors as Plan I.Q. The developed framework uses qualitative assessment and spatial analysis in GIS to develop these integrated plans. The authors then applied the framework for the development of a new comprehensive plan for the City of Rockport, Texas, which incurred heavy damages from Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The results from using the integrated plan indicated improvements to plan quality and integration. Shandiz et al. address energy master planning (EMP) for new net-zero emissions communities (NZECs) and concl
当基础设施满足当前需求而不牺牲未来需求时,它们是可持续的。当基础设施能够从自然灾害(如地震、海啸、飓风、旋风、龙卷风、洪水和干旱)、人为灾害(如人为错误、恶意攻击)带来的灾害中恢复过来,并能够抵御恶化和服务减少时,基础设施就具有弹性。可持续性和复原力是相互依存的。可持续性要求节约使用有限的资源,尽量减少对环境的影响,而弹性则需要资源来确保建筑环境的性能。可持续性和弹性都受到我们不断变化的环境的影响。适应性和综合抗灾能力以及可持续性依赖于以系统、综合和动态的方式设计和建设抗灾能力。本期《可持续和弹性基础设施的适应性规划》特刊继续探讨如何在不断变化的环境条件下将灵活性融入基础设施的规划、设计和建设中。这种规划、设计和建设必须取决于未来的条件和适应性路径,必须确定可以逐步实施的行动或过程,以产生包容性、经济性、弹性和可持续的基础设施。这份关于可持续和弹性基础设施适应性规划的专题报告是由抗灾基础设施联盟(CDRI)赞助的《弹性基础设施适应性路径》专题报告的延续。该SI寻求基于证据的科学和工程以及案例研究,以促进针对决策者和实践者的适应性途径。与最初的SI一样,该SI的最终目标是实施这些实践,以增强方法和流程的稳健性,从而实现可持续和有弹性的基础设施。本专题涵盖四个一般主题:开发规划工具以减轻洪水风险,开发规划工具以改善飓风造成的灾害脆弱性,评估废水管理实践以及如何修改这些实践以适应环境,以及开发高效能源规划模型。Masterson等人介绍了一种以证据为基础的增强准备技术的新方法,用于开发改进飓风规划的改进实践,作者将其称为iq计划。开发的框架使用GIS中的定性评估和空间分析来开发这些综合计划。然后,作者应用该框架为德克萨斯州罗克波特市制定了一项新的综合计划,该城市在2017年遭受了哈维飓风的严重破坏。使用集成计划的结果表明计划质量和集成得到了改善。Shandiz等人研究了新的净零排放社区(NZECs)的能源总体规划(EMP),并得出结论认为,与这些系统的可靠性和经济性相关的普遍看法可能是不正确的。结果表明,EMP对nzec的处理是可靠的、经济的。Beleno de Oliveira等人提出了一个框架来分析未来的洪水情景,考虑到气候变化的影响以及由此导致的降雨加剧和平均海平面上升,无计划的城市化和不受控制的土地利用,这些都会给排水基础设施带来压力,以及维护实践如何影响这些城市排水系统。作者得出的结论是,没有适当和维护的基础设施的无计划城市增长可能比气候变化的影响更大。作者指出了对这些系统进行良好规划和持续维护的重要性。Ross等人探讨了洪水规划的制度实践,并得出结论,适应性规划在洪水规划中基本缺失。作者得出结论,洪水规划通常是以静态的方式进行的,没有充分考虑未来的不确定性,这些规划未能吸引不同的参与,而且这些规划往往忽视了追求共同利益。需要实施适应性规划。最后,Porse等人评估了废水管理的适应途径。作者报告说,很少有研究调查了过去的设计假设如何影响废水管理。作者报告说,加州的废水工业在很大程度上是在寻求一种渐进的适应途径。本文提出了一种参与式自适应规划方法。可持续和弹性基础设施,2023,第8卷,第1期。4,357 - 358 https://doi.org/10.1080/23789689.2023.2218152
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引用次数: 0
Natural passive system for reducing winter night-time energy loss in buildings 减少建筑物冬季夜间能量损失的自然被动式系统
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2219182
F. Convertino, I. Blanco, G. Vox, E. Schettini
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引用次数: 1
Analytical fragility curves for trees subject to ice loading in a changing climate 气候变化中受冰荷载影响的树木脆性分析曲线
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2202962
R. Campos, P. S. Harvey, G. Hou
ABSTRACT Recent severe ice storms across the United States severely damaged trees resulting in extensive electrical power outages. Furthermore, trees and branches can fall on nearby roads, blocking traffic flow and reducing the safety of drivers. In this study, trees subjected to ice loads were analyzed using the finite element method and Monte Carlo simulation to develop analytical fragility curves. Two-dimensional, fractal trees were constructed with randomly generated geometric and mechanical parameters for four deciduous tree species: Acer saccharum, Tilia americana, Fagus grandifolia, and Quercus alba. Two load case scenarios were considered – with and without the effects of leaves – which were then subjected to varying ice accumulation thicknesses. The resulting fragility curves suggest that leaves have a substantial impact on tree branch damage under ice loads, which is significant because of the increase in unseasonably early ice storms due to climate change.
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引用次数: 0
A critical review on methods for time-dependent structural reliability 时变结构可靠度方法综述
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2206297
Bohua Zhang, Weigang Wang, Yanlin Wang, Yueru Li, Chun-qing Li
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引用次数: 0
A new pseudo-static loading scheme for the hyperstatic reaction method - case of sub-rectangular tunnels under seismic conditions 一种新的超静力反应法拟静力加载方案——以地震条件下的亚矩形隧道为例
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2200521
N. Do, Van Vi Pham, Daniel Dias
ABSTRACT In recent years, many different methods for calculating the structural forces caused by earthquakes to be created in circular and rectangular tunnels have been devised. However, it is still unclear how sub-rectangular tunnels would behave when subjected to seismic loadings. A new pseudo-static loading scheme for sub-rectangular tunnels using the Hyperstatic Reaction Method (HRM) is the main topic of the current paper. In order to depict the interaction between the soil and the tunnel lining, new equations that allow for the computation of applied active loading as well as a variable spring stiffness coefficient are developed. Through a numerical study that takes into account a variety of seismic magnitudes, soil parameters, lining thickness, tunnel dimension, tunnel geometries, and tunnel depth, the proposed loading scheme is calibrated and validated. The comparisons demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed HRM method for the preliminary seismic design of sub-rectangular tunnels.
摘要近年来,人们设计了许多不同的方法来计算圆形和矩形隧道中地震引起的结构力。然而,目前尚不清楚亚矩形隧道在承受地震荷载时的表现。采用超静力反应法(HRM)提出了一种新的亚矩形隧道拟静力加载方案。为了描述土壤和隧道衬砌之间的相互作用,开发了新的方程,该方程允许计算施加的主动载荷以及可变弹簧刚度系数。通过考虑各种地震震级、土壤参数、衬砌厚度、隧道尺寸、隧道几何形状和隧道深度的数值研究,对所提出的荷载方案进行了校准和验证。比较表明,所开发的HRM方法在亚矩形隧道初步抗震设计中是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of risk-based methods for bridge scour management 基于风险的桥梁冲刷管理方法比较
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2175141
M. Pregnolato, P. Giordano, L. Prendergast, P. J. Vardanega, M. P. Limongelli
ABSTRACT Scour is a significant cause of bridge failure, and resulting bridge closures are likely to generate significant disruption to infrastructure networks. The management of scour-susceptible bridges is a significant challenge for improving transport resilience, but tends to be heuristic and qualitative. Such assessments often suffer from insufficient knowledge of key factors and require assumptions, which may increase their estimation and relative uncertainty. Analysis of publicly available technical documents reveals that various definitions of “risk” are adopted, as well as multiple approaches are applied. This paper has three objectives: (i) to illustrate the concept of risk in bridge scour management; (ii) to propose a simple scoring system to analyse existing risk-based approaches to manage bridge scour; and (iii) to analyse and compare such approaches on the basis of the obtained scores. A sample of nine documents containing bridge scour risk assessment practices or approaches was analysed using the developed rating system.
摘要冲刷是桥梁故障的重要原因,由此导致的桥梁封闭可能会对基础设施网络造成重大破坏。易受冲刷桥梁的管理是提高运输弹性的一个重大挑战,但往往是启发式和定性的。这种评估往往对关键因素了解不足,需要假设,这可能会增加其估计和相对不确定性。对公开技术文件的分析表明,采用了各种“风险”的定义,并采用了多种方法。本文有三个目的:(i)阐明桥梁冲刷管理中的风险概念;(ii)提出一个简单的评分系统,以分析现有的基于风险的桥梁冲刷管理方法;以及(iii)根据所获得的分数分析和比较这些方法。使用开发的评级系统分析了包含桥梁冲刷风险评估实践或方法的九份文件样本。
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引用次数: 2
Performance-based selection of pathways for enhancing built infrastructure resilience 基于性能的增强已建成基础设施弹性的途径选择
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-03-13 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2188347
Mohammad Rafiq Joo, R. Sinha
ABSTRACT Built infrastructure systems must be resilient to disasters. After a disaster, its functionality has to evolve with significant uncertainties to restore pre-event condition. Innovative infrastructure design and management pathways can aid in sequencing possible pre- and post-disaster actions, incorporating flexibility into planning and decision-making to enhance resilience. Adoption of disaster risk reduction policies can benefit from accurate, comprehensive, and systematic probabilistic risk and resilience assessments. Such assessments, though not widely prevalent, help to understand the root causes of vulnerabilities and quantify their uncertainties. Therefore, they are prerequisites to identify and implement adaptation pathways for enhancing infrastructure resilience. To support identification and implementation of pathways approach, this study presents seismic resilience assessment incorporating functionality loss and pathways for subsequent recovery. An archetypical reinforced-concrete building, representing typical behavior of the building group used for critical functions, is considered under pre- and post-disaster preparedness, planning, and risk reduction options to develop deeper understanding of risks and selection of pathways. Resilience assessments are conducted based on performance-based earthquake engineering approach and considering uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulations. Both engineering and management interventions, such as improving non-structural component performance, eliminating post-disaster impedances, reducing repair delays, other management activities, and their combinations, are simulated under a common framework. The study quantifies how these measures can reduce losses, improve response, and enhance infrastructure resilience. Options for technical and management decision-making by various stakeholders to enhance resilience are also presented. The study advocates embracing the resiliency mindset and illustrates the benefits of multiple stakeholders for risk-informed decision-making.
摘要已建成的基础设施系统必须具有抗灾能力。灾难发生后,其功能必须随着重大的不确定性而发展,以恢复事件前的状态。创新的基础设施设计和管理途径有助于对可能的灾前和灾后行动进行排序,将灵活性纳入规划和决策,以增强抗灾能力。采用减少灾害风险政策可以受益于准确、全面和系统的概率风险和复原力评估。这种评估虽然不普遍,但有助于了解脆弱性的根本原因并量化其不确定性。因此,它们是确定和实施提高基础设施复原力的适应途径的先决条件。为了支持路径方法的确定和实施,本研究提出了地震恢复力评估,包括功能损失和后续恢复的路径。代表用于关键功能的建筑群的典型行为的原型钢筋混凝土建筑,在灾前和灾后准备、规划和风险降低选项下进行考虑,以加深对风险的理解和路径的选择。弹性评估基于基于性能的地震工程方法,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟考虑不确定性。工程和管理干预措施,如提高非结构部件性能、消除灾后阻抗、减少维修延误、其他管理活动及其组合,都在一个共同的框架下进行了模拟。该研究量化了这些措施如何减少损失、改善应对措施和增强基础设施的弹性。还介绍了各利益攸关方为提高复原力而进行的技术和管理决策的备选方案。该研究提倡采用弹性思维,并说明了多个利益相关者对风险知情决策的好处。
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引用次数: 2
Bayesian model for sustainable, resilient, and cost-effective concrete mixtures 贝叶斯模型的可持续,弹性,和具有成本效益的混凝土混合物
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-03-12 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2188348
G. Vasudevan, D. Trejo
ABSTRACT This work develops a Bayesian model that can be used to proportion sustainable, resilient, and cost-effective concrete mixtures based on stakeholder preferences. Traditionally, the decision-making process for proportioning concrete mixtures is centered around meeting target specifications, such as slump and compressive strength, and attributes such as sustainability and durability are given minimal importance. However, in the global push towards green infrastructure, sustainability plays a major role and must be considered to the same degree as engineering attributes. The model developed herein accounts for embodied carbon footprint, cost, and time to corrosion initiation, apart from the target specifications commonly used to proportion concrete mixtures. The developed model is demonstrated through two case studies: one targeting the average industrial embodied carbon footprint for a concrete mixture and the other targeting a reduction of 40% from the industry’s carbon footprint average. This model can also be used to perform data visualization and sensitivity analyses.
摘要本工作开发了一个贝叶斯模型,可用于根据利益相关者的偏好对可持续、有弹性和具有成本效益的混凝土混合物进行配比。传统上,混凝土混合物配比的决策过程以满足坍落度和抗压强度等目标规范为中心,而可持续性和耐久性等属性的重要性最低。然而,在全球推动绿色基础设施的过程中,可持续性发挥着重要作用,必须与工程属性同等重视。除了通常用于配比混凝土混合物的目标规范外,本文开发的模型还考虑了具体的碳足迹、成本和腐蚀引发时间。通过两个案例研究证明了所开发的模型:一个是针对混凝土混合物的平均工业碳足迹,另一个是将工业碳足迹平均值降低40%。该模型还可用于执行数据可视化和敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue on a vision for corrosion-resistant and resilient reinforced concrete systems: An introduction 关于抗腐蚀和弹性钢筋混凝土系统远景的特刊:导论
IF 5.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Pub Date : 2023-03-04 DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2192557
D. Trejo, R. Pillai
Reinforced concrete is, in general, a very durable system. However, as designers pursue more efficient structural designs and subject these structures to more aggressive environments, these systems become increasingly susceptible to corrosion. Corrosion of steel reinforcement is one of the more prevalent mechanisms of deterioration in reinforced concrete systems. As the world’s infrastructure ages, the cost of repair and replacement of these systems increase at rapid rates. As new models, designs, materials and construction methods become available, the service life of these systems should be extended. This Special Issue initially focuses on current practices used throughout the world to mitigate corrosion of the steel reinforcement embedded in concrete. Alexander et al., Li and Ueda, and Geiker et al. provide an overview for durability based design in South Africa, Asia and Europe. The authors note that both prescriptiveand performance-based methods are currently in use with the objective of ensuring durability. All authors note the use of models, especially models to predict the ingress of chlorides into concrete, should be used to better predict the service life. However, Alexander et al. critique exposure classifications and conclude that both rational service life designs and relevant environmental exposure classifications are sorely needed. The authors also recommend that exposure classifications account for the various factors that influence reinforcement corrosion and the resulting structural damage. Li and Ueda review the state-of-theart of durability design in Asia and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the current practices. The authors ultimately recommend a ‘multi-barrier’ strategy to achieve long-term performance and corrosion resistance of reinforced concrete systems. Geiker at al. provide a European perspective on durability design and argue that designers must understand basic deterioration mechanisms and resulting damage to better design the infrastructure systems. The authors also note that service life models should include the time from corrosion initiation to the end of life (i.e., the propagation phase) to provide more resilient designs. In addition to the design for durability perspectives from the different regions, understanding how to better predict and quantify factors that influence the service life are critical for improving resilience. Ogunsanya et al. present how the use of different de-icing chemicals can influence the critical chloride threshold, a critical parameter for assessing service life. Boschmann Käthler et al. present a review of how the critical chloride threshold values are assessed and make recommendations on how to quantify these critical chloride values. Interestingly, such a critical parameter for assessing the service life of reinforced concrete system has no standardized testing protocol (although advances are underway in several locales). Ahmed and Vaddey present interesting work on chlor
一般来说,钢筋混凝土是一种非常耐用的系统。然而,随着设计师追求更高效的结构设计,并将这些结构置于更具侵略性的环境中,这些系统变得越来越容易受到腐蚀。钢筋的腐蚀是钢筋混凝土系统中更普遍的劣化机制之一。随着世界基础设施的老化,这些系统的维修和更换成本迅速增加。随着新的模型、设计、材料和施工方法的出现,这些系统的使用寿命应该延长。本期特刊最初关注的是世界各地用于减轻混凝土中嵌入钢筋腐蚀的现行做法。Alexander等人、Li和Ueda以及Geiker等人概述了南非、亚洲和欧洲基于耐久性的设计。作者指出,目前正在使用规定和基于性能的方法,目的是确保耐用性。所有作者都注意到,应使用模型,特别是预测氯化物进入混凝土的模型,以更好地预测使用寿命。然而,Alexander等人对暴露分类进行了批判,并得出结论,迫切需要合理的使用寿命设计和相关的环境暴露分类。作者还建议,暴露分类应考虑影响钢筋腐蚀和由此产生的结构损伤的各种因素。李和上田回顾了亚洲耐久性设计的现状,并强调了当前实践的优势和劣势。作者最终建议采用“多屏障”策略,以实现钢筋混凝土系统的长期性能和耐腐蚀性。Geiker等人提供了欧洲对耐久性设计的观点,并认为设计师必须了解基本的退化机制和由此产生的损坏,才能更好地设计基础设施系统。作者还指出,使用寿命模型应包括从腐蚀开始到寿命结束的时间(即传播阶段),以提供更具弹性的设计。除了从不同地区的耐久性角度进行设计外,了解如何更好地预测和量化影响使用寿命的因素对于提高弹性至关重要。Ogunsanya等人介绍了不同除冰化学品的使用如何影响临界氯化物阈值,这是评估使用寿命的关键参数。Boschmann Käthler等人回顾了如何评估临界氯化物阈值,并就如何量化这些临界氯化物值提出了建议。有趣的是,这样一个评估钢筋混凝土系统使用寿命的关键参数没有标准化的测试协议(尽管一些地方正在取得进展)。Ahmed和Vaddey介绍了各种胶结系统氯化物测试的有趣工作,并建议使用水溶性氯化物测试来量化混凝土中的氯化物。标准化测试要求对于确保耐腐蚀结构至关重要,但这一追求仍在继续。Shakuri和Dhandapani&Santhanam专注于混凝土系统中氯化物的积累和传输速率。Shakuri报告了氯化物的表面积聚率,并评估了这些积聚率如何影响使用寿命。他得出的结论是,需要进行通用测试来评估表面氯化物;有趣的是,这是评估使用寿命的另一个关键输入参数,但标准化程度有限。Shakuri还报告了对长期实地数据的需求。Dhandapani和Santhanam比较了目前用于量化各种暴露条件下氯化物迁移率的各种测试方法,并报告了几种测试方法之间的良好相关性。尽管许多关于氯离子传输和钢筋混凝土系统使用寿命的文献都集中在未开裂的混凝土上,但混凝土中的开裂是常见的。然而,评估裂缝如何影响钢筋混凝土系统的腐蚀和由此产生的使用寿命的工作有限。O’Reilly等人评估了含有窄裂纹的钢筋混凝土试样的腐蚀性能,并报告称,这些窄裂纹会促进腐蚀
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引用次数: 0
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Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure
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