Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.010
Anna Batta
The strategic imperative for a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine War requires that we combine the military and diplomatic instruments of power to accomplish first a cease fire and then a lasting peace. This article traces the development of peace negotiations prior to the outbreak of the war and offers possible lessons that could inform policymakers today. The main argument is that negotiations prior to the invasion were primarily at a standstill because of the way in which the parties interpreted the conflict and how each saw possible ways of conflict resolution.
{"title":"Roadblocks to Peace in Russia’s War in Ukraine","authors":"Anna Batta","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The strategic imperative for a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine War requires that we combine the military and diplomatic instruments of power to accomplish first a cease fire and then a lasting peace. This article traces the development of peace negotiations prior to the outbreak of the war and offers possible lessons that could inform policymakers today. The main argument is that negotiations prior to the invasion were primarily at a standstill because of the way in which the parties interpreted the conflict and how each saw possible ways of conflict resolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 4","pages":"Pages 666-676"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142325944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.006
Michael Wise
Great powers conduct defense and security cooperation to achieve national interests, usually with an expectation to garner influence with partners. Sometimes the result is contrary to a great power’s intent. Essential factors that contribute to defense and security cooperation effectiveness include: communication, commitment, interests, and coordinated plans. The US approach to security cooperation is grounded in noble intent, but in some cases falls short when compared to its competitors. Russia and China are more transactional in their approaches and have achieved marginal success in their own ways. This article examines great power defense and security cooperation with partners in Africa to assess relative advantages and disadvantages.
{"title":"The Security Cooperation Toolkit and the Future of Great Power Competition","authors":"Michael Wise","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Great powers conduct defense and security cooperation to achieve national interests, usually with an expectation to garner influence with partners. Sometimes the result is contrary to a great power’s intent. Essential factors that contribute to defense and security cooperation effectiveness include: communication, commitment, interests, and coordinated plans. The US approach to security cooperation is grounded in noble intent, but in some cases falls short when compared to its competitors. Russia and China are more transactional in their approaches and have achieved marginal success in their own ways. This article examines great power defense and security cooperation with partners in Africa to assess relative advantages and disadvantages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 4","pages":"Pages 589-606"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.009
Rachel A. George
This article reviews prominent definitions of global competency, explores the available (though limited) current evidence for its potential benefits, and offers recommendations for framing an understanding of the salience of global affairs education within theories of national security and related practice. The article identifies three potential pathways through which global competency benefits security. First, global competency—especially through phased primary, secondary and tertiary educational models—may contribute to a stronger and more competitive workforce in direct and indirect ways, in turn enhancing a country’s innovative capacities and economic and military power and resilience to shocks. Second, global competency can serve as a form of public diplomacy, in turn supporting a country’s soft power and global influence. Third, global competency can strengthen domestic institutions, combatting dis/misinformation about global issues and reducing vulnerability to malign actors who aim to leverage inaccurate and fear-based messages about the world to influence and destabilize foreign electorates.
{"title":"Global Competency as National Security: Exploring the Global Affairs Education-Security Nexus","authors":"Rachel A. George","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article reviews prominent definitions of global competency, explores the available (though limited) current evidence for its potential benefits, and offers recommendations for framing an understanding of the salience of global affairs education within theories of national security and related practice. The article identifies three potential pathways through which global competency benefits security. First, global competency—especially through phased primary, secondary and tertiary educational models—may contribute to a stronger and more competitive workforce in direct and indirect ways, in turn enhancing a country’s innovative capacities and economic and military power and resilience to shocks. Second, global competency can serve as a form of public diplomacy, in turn supporting a country’s soft power and global influence. Third, global competency can strengthen domestic institutions, combatting dis/misinformation about global issues and reducing vulnerability to malign actors who aim to leverage inaccurate and fear-based messages about the world to influence and destabilize foreign electorates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 4","pages":"Pages 646-665"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.007
Ofira Seliktar
The failure to anticipate Hamas’s brutal attack on October 7 is multilayered and will be investigated for years to come. However, the preliminary consensus has blamed the konceptcia, the Hebrew word for paradigm, that guided the intelligence and security forces. With the advent of AI and its complex search algorithms, the resultant paradigm was shaped by an input imbalance that depicted Hamas transitioning from its jihadist past to a rational governance player. The politicization of the academic and lay Middle East discourse legitimized resistance to Israel, feeding the bias. Equally, the virtual absence of understanding of the military wing of Hamas and its role in Iran’s Axis of Resistance deepened the imbalance.
{"title":"The Failure to Predict the Hamas Attack: Insights from Artificial Intelligence","authors":"Ofira Seliktar","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The failure to anticipate Hamas’s brutal attack on October 7 is multilayered and will be investigated for years to come. However, the preliminary consensus has blamed the konceptcia, the Hebrew word for paradigm, that guided the intelligence and security forces. With the advent of AI and its complex search algorithms, the resultant paradigm was shaped by an input imbalance that depicted Hamas transitioning from its jihadist past to a rational governance player. The politicization of the academic and lay Middle East discourse legitimized resistance to Israel, feeding the bias. Equally, the virtual absence of understanding of the military wing of Hamas and its role in Iran’s Axis of Resistance deepened the imbalance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 2","pages":"Pages 259-275"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140160845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.003
Nikolas K. Gvosdev
For the last thirty years, US grand strategy has been predicated on an expansive definition of US interests and optimistic assessments of US capabilities. In the changed global conditions of the 2020s, a fresh look at American global engagement needs to determine where, when, and under what conditions the United States ought to intervene. Thinking in terms of a national security “butterfly effect” and balancing that risk assessment against the realities of the “Lippmann Gap” (where strategic aspirations cannot exceed actual capabilities) produces a series of grand strategic options for policymakers.
{"title":"Revisiting Grand Strategy at the Inflection Point","authors":"Nikolas K. Gvosdev","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For the last thirty years, US grand strategy has been predicated on an expansive definition of US interests and optimistic assessments of US capabilities. In the changed global conditions of the 2020s, a fresh look at American global engagement needs to determine where, when, and under what conditions the United States ought to intervene. Thinking in terms of a national security “butterfly effect” and balancing that risk assessment against the realities of the “Lippmann Gap” (where strategic aspirations cannot exceed actual capabilities) produces a series of grand strategic options for policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 4","pages":"Pages 526-544"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.001
Robert D. Kaplan
{"title":"What Should Be America’s Role in the World?","authors":"Robert D. Kaplan","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 4","pages":"Pages 515-516"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.009
Jim Krane
The energy transition is initiating long-term oil market trends that look likely to undermine the strategic importance of oil-producing countries for the US government. The trends suggest US voters and future US administrations will be less exposed to price swings and other risks in the global oil market. Diminishing risk exposure, in turn, reduces imperatives for US policymakers to spend so heavily on security provision in the Persian Gulf, or to resolve diplomatic rifts with major producers such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi policy changes since 2016, and the reduced willingness to use spare production capacity in ways that benefit Washington, may have amplified a pre-existing appetite for such a downgrade.
{"title":"How the Energy Transition Is Imposing New Strains on US-Saudi Relations","authors":"Jim Krane","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The energy transition is initiating long-term oil market trends that look likely to undermine the strategic importance of oil-producing countries for the US government. The trends suggest US voters and future US administrations will be less exposed to price swings and other risks in the global oil market. Diminishing risk exposure, in turn, reduces imperatives for US policymakers to spend so heavily on security provision in the Persian Gulf, or to resolve diplomatic rifts with major producers such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi policy changes since 2016, and the reduced willingness to use spare production capacity in ways that benefit Washington, may have amplified a pre-existing appetite for such a downgrade.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 2","pages":"Pages 294-314"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140160847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.05.004
John D. Maurer
While rising geopolitical competition poses significant political challenges for future arms control negotiations, it also complicates national arms control verification by making on-site inspections unlikely. One way to verify future arms control agreements without on-site inspections would be to rely on counting rules verified by national technical intelligence. American policymakers should consider how they might combine on-site inspections and counting rules in future arms control agreements. By allowing each party to choose its verification modality, future arms control agreements could cater to different security preferences while also preserving areas of American military advantage.
{"title":"Asymmetric Verification: An Option for Future Arms Limitation","authors":"John D. Maurer","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.05.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2024.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While rising geopolitical competition poses significant political challenges for future arms control negotiations, it also complicates national arms control verification by making on-site inspections unlikely. One way to verify future arms control agreements without on-site inspections would be to rely on counting rules verified by national technical intelligence. American policymakers should consider how they might combine on-site inspections and counting rules in future arms control agreements. By allowing each party to choose its verification modality, future arms control agreements could cater to different security preferences while also preserving areas of American military advantage.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 3","pages":"Pages 383-405"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0030438724000267/pdfft?md5=6f52f69967faff614bf157754229c525&pid=1-s2.0-S0030438724000267-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141424237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.010
Philip Wasielewski
This essay is written as an open letter to whomever the 47th President may be and whenever he or she may take office. It proposes several different approaches to a presidential transition to allow an incoming President to have a strategy and other plans in place sooner than has been the norm over the past several transitions to direct the national security system more effectively. While the 2024 presidential election may feature the reelection of the current incumbent or the return of the previous president to the Oval Office, either may wish to consider new approaches to how they will organize their national security strategy and the personnel and processes that will manage it from the way they did in their first administrations.
{"title":"An Open Letter to 47th President: Hitting the Ground Running","authors":"Philip Wasielewski","doi":"10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orbis.2024.02.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This essay is written as an open letter to whomever the 47<sup>th</sup> President may be and whenever he or she may take office. It proposes several different approaches to a presidential transition to allow an incoming President to have a strategy and other plans in place sooner than has been the norm over the past several transitions to direct the national security system more effectively. While the 2024 presidential election may feature the reelection of the current incumbent or the return of the previous president to the Oval Office, either may wish to consider new approaches to how they will organize their national security strategy and the personnel and processes that will manage it from the way they did in their first administrations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":45433,"journal":{"name":"Orbis","volume":"68 2","pages":"Pages 315-327"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140160783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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