Orbis最新文献

This essay addresses the imperative need for a comprehensive American, if not Western strategy to support Ukraine. This strategy must include not only the current tranche of weapons but also consistent and regular supply to achieve victory, i.e., restoration of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. Equally important is the necessity for Washington and its allies to collaborate on the long-term preservation and sustainment of conventional deterrence in Europe at the Russo-NATO border. In addition, the Administration must make the case for Ukraine to the public.

Since gaining independence in 1980 and changing its name from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe, this southern African nation has been plagued with political violence and economic instability. Corrupt and incompetent officials, mostly from the ruling ZANU-PF party, have caused bouts of rampant inflation which turned into hyperinflation, wrecking what had once been a thriving economy. After a period of relative economic stability from 2009 to 2016, the economy appears once again to be in a tailspin. The overthrow of long-time leader Robert Mugabe in 2017 was seen initially as ushering in a new era, but elections in 2018 and 2023—were flawed by official intimidation and corruption. The United States is not positioned to have a significant impact on Zimbabwe’s future trajectory. However, it should take a more clear-eyed approach to do what little it can given the current global context. At a minimum, this requires the production of a realistic strategic plan, which in turn requires important strategic choices to be made, including what is the winning aspiration being sought in US-Zimbabwe relations.

Contrary to the prevailing view, messianic thinking has not driven Russian expansionism. Russian rulers have rather been guided by realpolitik in a search for security through the creation of strategic depth. When messianic thinking has infected Russian conduct abroad it generally has led to humiliating setbacks. In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has abandoned realpolitik for messianic thinking. Such thinking lay behind his decision to invade Ukraine. It informs his escalating conflict with the West. And it will likely produce no better results for Russia than messianic thinking has in the past. This article is a slightly edited excerpt from the author’s new book, Getting Russia Right.

Russia, in its competition with the liberal world for establishing the dominant discourse—alongside hard power military means—deploys soft power, leveraging the allure of illiberal values to forge foreign policy alliances, undermine the credibility of international institutions, and reshape the global order. Russian strategic narratives delineate the political objectives of the Russian government. In a contest for discursive authority with other global actors, Russia presents its vision of a new world order—a world partitioned among major powers—where Moscow holds the authority to determine the fate of peoples in the “Greater Eurasia” region, including Europe

Arguably, the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian armed forces relies on four pillars to deter their enemies at sea: implementing asymmetric warfare tactics; improving Iran’s naval capabilities at the tactical and strategic levels; using naval proxy forces, and building regional and global naval alliances. The author evaluates these pillars and contends that it is time for the United States to consider building an Arab naval alliance in the Persian Gulf.

The global financial system is undergoing its most significant change in the last four decades. A highly leveraged consumption-driven model undergirded by US fiat currency, Chinese labor arbitrage and US geopolitical primacy, is facing questions. This comes at a time when the global power balance is shifting from the West to the East at the fastest rate in the last three centuries. Economic and security risks are at a multi-decade high and manifest in economic crises and wars. The kind of equilibrium achieved by major and emerging powers after this period of transition will depend on how they derisk supply chains, re-globalize trade and mitigate conflicts