Orbis最新文献

This article seeks a debate on the future of the US defense posture in the Great Power Competition. It contains a robust list of defense initiatives to consider in improving the US defense posture. Since the United States is no longer in combat operations in CENTCOM, now is the time to focus on changing the US defense posture and program to meet the challenges of the emerging security environment. The article details where the United States stands and major changes that should be made, emphasizing both conventional and strategic nuclear forces.

The US Navy’s fleet and end strength has been constrained for far too long and must be expanded to meet the geopolitical requirements of the Great Power Competition. The US Navy’s size deeply declined as a byproduct of the Cold War’s end and Department of Defense post-Cold War force design planning. The lesson learned here is simple and straightforward: navies can be reduced quickly but cannot be rebuilt quickly. The industrial, construction, and labor issues associated with shipbuilding require multi-year construction schedules, effective labor force management and dedicated, long-range management and executive planning.

Deterrence offers the United States not only a more effective security policy but also a more moral one than its alternatives—so contended Elbridge Colby in 2007. The author of the new book Strategy of Denial joined Orbis editor Nikolas Gvosdev to discuss how his perspective has changed over the last fifteen years. Excerpted and revised from an FPRI Zoom event in July 2022.

Europe’s relations with the states of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are facing a critical juncture. When looking at a regional security architecture, Europe’s overarching interest is stability as it prevents conflict and state vacuums from menacing trade and energy supply routes, creating safe havens for terrorist organizations or hostile powers and fueling refugee flows toward Europe. However, compared to the past, European actors are confronted with a sharply new scenario in MENA that challenges these interests, given a progressive retrenchment of the United States, the rise of China, and MENA actors playing a more assertive role in regional politics and conflicts. The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is further accelerating these trends. Against this shifting background, MENA countries have intensified efforts to diversify their partnerships with rising global and regional players. European actors still struggle to come to grip with the multipolar scenario in the making—and to design an appropriate strategy to respond.

India-Pakistan relations are at an inflection point with India’s dramatic revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy and its desired objective to transform the nature of the Kashmir conflict from a “bilateral” (involving Pakistan) to a “unilateral” status (excluding Pakistan). Pakistan, on the other hand, has embarked on a diplomatic offensive making the case against India’s majoritarian politics in Kashmir as detrimental not only to the Kashmiris but also to the strategic stability between the two rivals. This article reasons that India’s and Pakistan’s dominant zero-sum strategies—premised on winning while ensuring the other’s loss—are least likely to come to fruition. Given the present nature of ties, the way forward is for the two states to engage in a minimalist framework where mutual interests, as opposed to dominant positions, are put forth as a basis for engagement. Second, engagement more than agreement should be the short- to medium-term goal. Finally, any talk during this time on freezing the Kashmir conflict is least likely to bring any long-term dividends for peace and stability between the two regional adversaries.

This article examines the overlapping influence of China in Russia and five countries that have experienced democratic backsliding: Azerbaijan, Nicaragua, Serbia, Turkey, and Uganda. Drawing on a wide range of data sources, including media watchdog reports, key informant interviews, and quantitative data, the paper maps the portfolio of specific digital censorship tools – legislative, institutional, and technological—that governments in China and Russia use to censor their domestic digital content. Then the digital censorship tools in the five case study countries are documented to examine where their governments’ tactics overlapped with those of the Kremlin and Beijing. These case study countries differ in their levels of development and democracy, with Russia, China, and the West all vying for influence. Key findings include the importance of timing when installing a digital censorship regime, and that Uganda and Nicaragua stand out among the case study countries.

The 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Biden/Harris administration calls for the United States to “out-compete” China, to reintegrate the Middle East, and to refurbish US global leadership, in part by regenerating America’s technological and economic advantages that help to attract allies and partners. While these types of strategic documents are often seen as aspirational, when it comes to US policy in the Middle East and North Africa, the NSS reiterates what has already been the guiding directives for US policy in this region since 2021.

Even before normalization—in December 2020, under the auspices of the United States—Israel and Morocco had had “normal” relations for 2,500 years. Morocco has always been a homeland for the Jews, but also a sacred place where many of their saints are buried. Muslims and Jews have lived in Morocco for centuries in peace, mutual respect, and care. This mutual understanding of the past, with its rich cultural heritage, translates today into a friendship without equal. Morocco and Israel are moving into the future hand in hand to write new chapters of understanding, harmony, and human development.