{"title":"NIE volume 259 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.13","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"f1 - f3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Macchiarelli, B. Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, I. Hurst, I. Liadze, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram
Despite forecasting GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 a bit weaker than we previously thought, our forecast for the world economy is still for an expansion of 5.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 in 2022 (Figure 1), marginally lower than our Autumn Outlook. Growth of the world economy is set to slow down further, to 3.5 per cent in 2023, with risks skewed to the downside due to the virus and supply chain disruptions. We estimate that the pandemic will result in the level of global GDP being about 3 per cent of GDP lower in 2025 than our pre-pandemic expectation, with the cumulative loss up to 2025 amounting to around $28 trillion.
{"title":"Global Economic Outlook Inflation prompts policy normalisation","authors":"C. Macchiarelli, B. Naisbitt, Janine Boshoff, I. Hurst, I. Liadze, Xuxin Mao, Patricia Sanchez Juanino, C. Thamotheram","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.17","url":null,"abstract":"Despite forecasting GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 a bit weaker than we previously thought, our forecast for the world economy is still for an expansion of 5.7 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 in 2022 (Figure 1), marginally lower than our Autumn Outlook. Growth of the world economy is set to slow down further, to 3.5 per cent in 2023, with risks skewed to the downside due to the virus and supply chain disruptions. We estimate that the pandemic will result in the level of global GDP being about 3 per cent of GDP lower in 2025 than our pre-pandemic expectation, with the cumulative loss up to 2025 amounting to around $28 trillion.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We present two models that shed light on two issues in the political economy of populism: incumbents who refuse to give up office following a democratic election; and politicians gambling with major policy shifts when their consequences are uncertain. In the democratic transition of power, common knowledge about the veracity of the election process enables citizens to threaten incumbents with protests if they attempt to retain their seats in power. If doubt over electoral integrity prevails, office-seeking incumbents sometimes reject electoral rules. In considering policy gambles, politicians supply policy shifts in response to voters and elites vying for a greater share of economic output. When the mapping from policy to outcomes is uncertain, voters opt for policy gambles, even though these are detrimental to their ex ante welfare, to redress the division of output. These models underscore the importance of institutions that address the source of each coordination failure.
{"title":"MISCOORDINATION, POLITICS AND POPULISM","authors":"Chanelle Duley, Prasanna Gai","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.3","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We present two models that shed light on two issues in the political economy of populism: incumbents who refuse to give up office following a democratic election; and politicians gambling with major policy shifts when their consequences are uncertain. In the democratic transition of power, common knowledge about the veracity of the election process enables citizens to threaten incumbents with protests if they attempt to retain their seats in power. If doubt over electoral integrity prevails, office-seeking incumbents sometimes reject electoral rules. In considering policy gambles, politicians supply policy shifts in response to voters and elites vying for a greater share of economic output. When the mapping from policy to outcomes is uncertain, voters opt for policy gambles, even though these are detrimental to their ex ante welfare, to redress the division of output. These models underscore the importance of institutions that address the source of each coordination failure.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"51 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Populist responses to matters of social concern are considered in a framework like that of Acemoglu and Robinson’s ‘narrow corridor’ that supports liberty and justice. We discuss the risk that such responses could result in a country being pushed out of this narrow corridor—and, if so, with what long-run consequences. We conclude that a political system of ‘checks and balances’ can play a key role in keeping the society within the narrow corridor; but it is incumbent on the existing political system to confront the issues of populist concern so as to come up with creative solutions.
{"title":"POPULISM AND THE ‘NARROW CORRIDOR’ OF LIBERTY AND JUSTICE","authors":"Marcus Miller, B. Zissimos","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.4","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Populist responses to matters of social concern are considered in a framework like that of Acemoglu and Robinson’s ‘narrow corridor’ that supports liberty and justice. We discuss the risk that such responses could result in a country being pushed out of this narrow corridor—and, if so, with what long-run consequences. We conclude that a political system of ‘checks and balances’ can play a key role in keeping the society within the narrow corridor; but it is incumbent on the existing political system to confront the issues of populist concern so as to come up with creative solutions.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"31 - 50"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 262 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2023.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2023.2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"f1 - f3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In this paper we revisit the issue of currency regime choice for an independent Scotland using an international macroeconomic/ finance framework. Specifically, we consider the main competing proposals for currency choice with an emphasis on the SNP’s official policy of the informal use of sterling post-independence. We conclude that from a macroeconomic perspective this option is unlikley to be credible to international capital markets. The option that would be credible, and avoids the austerity associated with the choice of a fixed exchange rate option, would be a free float at least during the transition period of independence.
{"title":"THE CURRENCY CONUNDRUM FOR AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND","authors":"R. MacDonald","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.22","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper we revisit the issue of currency regime choice for an independent Scotland using an international macroeconomic/ finance framework. Specifically, we consider the main competing proposals for currency choice with an emphasis on the SNP’s official policy of the informal use of sterling post-independence. We conclude that from a macroeconomic perspective this option is unlikley to be credible to international capital markets. The option that would be credible, and avoids the austerity associated with the choice of a fixed exchange rate option, would be a free float at least during the transition period of independence.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"7 - 25"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 259 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.14","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"b1 - b3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Brexit has both increased the momentum towards Scottish independence and complicated what it could mean in practice, especially if Scotland rejoins the European Union (EU). EU accession would re-open the flow of goods, people, services and capital between Scotland and other EU member-states; a corollary of this, however, would be new restrictions on movement between Scotland and its non-EU neighbours. Effective border management entails a variety of ‘at the border’ and ‘behind the border’ processes. As much as these would require dedicated infrastructure and trained personnel, they would ultimately depend upon reliable data/information and good communication among myriad agencies, including on the other side of the border. Fundamentally, the nature and form of the border controls would be determined largely by the relationship that an independent Scotland had with the remainder of the UK—and, principally, on the relationship that the UK develops with the EU.
{"title":"MANAGING SCOTLAND’S BORDERS AFTER INDEPENDENCE AND EUROPEAN UNION ACCESSION","authors":"K. Hayward, N. McEwen, Milena Komarova","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.21","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Brexit has both increased the momentum towards Scottish independence and complicated what it could mean in practice, especially if Scotland rejoins the European Union (EU). EU accession would re-open the flow of goods, people, services and capital between Scotland and other EU member-states; a corollary of this, however, would be new restrictions on movement between Scotland and its non-EU neighbours. Effective border management entails a variety of ‘at the border’ and ‘behind the border’ processes. As much as these would require dedicated infrastructure and trained personnel, they would ultimately depend upon reliable data/information and good communication among myriad agencies, including on the other side of the border. Fundamentally, the nature and form of the border controls would be determined largely by the relationship that an independent Scotland had with the remainder of the UK—and, principally, on the relationship that the UK develops with the EU.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"40 - 50"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The equilibrium size of a nation state is, in part, the result of a trade-off between the gains from scale economies in the provision of public services and the costs of applying uniform policy to heterogeneous cultural, institutional and geographical fundamentals. Changes in such fundamentals can thus place pressure on states to reform over time. We consider this dynamic state formation process in the context of Scotland within the United Kingdom. First, we review the recent research in economic history on the persistence and evolution of such fundamentals. Second, we consider the history of Scotland both before and after the 1707 Act of Union in the light of that broader economic history literature. We conclude with some implications of fundamental persistence for current debates on the place of Scotland within the United Kingdom.
{"title":"PERSISTENT STATES: LESSONS FOR SCOTTISH DEVOLUTION AND INDEPENDENCE","authors":"A. Muscatelli, G. Roy, A. Trew","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.5","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The equilibrium size of a nation state is, in part, the result of a trade-off between the gains from scale economies in the provision of public services and the costs of applying uniform policy to heterogeneous cultural, institutional and geographical fundamentals. Changes in such fundamentals can thus place pressure on states to reform over time. We consider this dynamic state formation process in the context of Scotland within the United Kingdom. First, we review the recent research in economic history on the persistence and evolution of such fundamentals. Second, we consider the history of Scotland both before and after the 1707 Act of Union in the light of that broader economic history literature. We conclude with some implications of fundamental persistence for current debates on the place of Scotland within the United Kingdom.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"51 - 63"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Much of the media coverage in relation to populism has focused either on populist moments like the Brexit vote or on populist leaders such as Donald Trump or Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, the academic literature on populism is divided between two broad approaches. First, an emphasis in economics on policy (e.g. Dornbusch and Edwards, 1992) and, second, an accentuation in political science on ideology (e.g. Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser, 2017). Both approaches capture important aspects, including the rejection of orthodox monetary and fiscal policy positions and a repudiation not only of established elites but also of pluralism and some of the key institutions on which the rule of law and democracy depend.
{"title":"INTRODUCTION: POPULISM IN QUESTION","authors":"S. Ghosal, Adrian Pabst","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.11","url":null,"abstract":"Much of the media coverage in relation to populism has focused either on populist moments like the Brexit vote or on populist leaders such as Donald Trump or Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, the academic literature on populism is divided between two broad approaches. First, an emphasis in economics on policy (e.g. Dornbusch and Edwards, 1992) and, second, an accentuation in political science on ideology (e.g. Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser, 2017). Both approaches capture important aspects, including the rejection of orthodox monetary and fiscal policy positions and a repudiation not only of established elites but also of pluralism and some of the key institutions on which the rule of law and democracy depend.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"7 - 9"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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