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Export Restrictions and COVID-19 出口限制与COVID-19
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.519
Mamadou Thiam, Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou, Benur Andrade Varela
As a result of COVID-19, the export of medical goods has been subject to various global restrictions. Consequently, several countries have increased the supply of medical goods to alleviate the effects of this health crisis. This study entails a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of such remedial measures. To this end, we have utilized a consistent conjectural variation in a three-country model entailing firms competing in two reciprocal markets in Cournot. When the restrictions are unilateral, the number of medical goods available in the exporting country tends to increase, culminating in better management of the pandemic. In contrast, bilateral restrictions typically reduce the total output of medical goods; therefore, they are inappropriate in a pandemic situation.
由于新冠肺炎,医疗产品出口受到各种全球限制。因此,一些国家增加了医疗用品的供应,以减轻这场健康危机的影响。这项研究需要对这种补救措施的效果进行理论和实证分析。为此,我们在一个三国模型中使用了一个一致的推测变化,该模型涉及企业在库诺的两个互惠市场中竞争。当限制是单方面的时,出口国可获得的医疗用品数量往往会增加,最终导致对疫情的更好管理。相比之下,双边限制通常会减少医疗产品的总产量;因此,在疫情形势下,它们是不合适的。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Backward Linkages and Domestic Contents of Exports on Labor Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Data 后向联系和出口的国内成分对劳动生产率和就业的影响:来自日本工业数据的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.607
Mohamedou Nasser dine, Tengku Munawar Chalil
This study examines how backward linkages (foreign value added [FVA] exports) and domestic value-added (DVA) exports impact industry-level labor productivity and employment in Japan by estimating a static and dynamic panel model using data drawn from the World Input-Output Dataset and Socio-Economic Accounts. We find that the domestic content of trade is a key driver of productivity and employment in Japan for all industries, while backward linkages lead to declining productivity and foster labor displacement. A sectoral analysis reveals that productivity benefits most of the backward linkages and domestic value-added exports in the manufacturing industry but weakens as the backward linkages increase in the service industry. We find that the DVA exports variable promotes employment, whereas the FVA variable displaces it.
本研究使用来自世界投入产出数据集和社会经济账户的数据,通过估算静态和动态面板模型,考察了反向联系(外国增加值[FVA]出口)和国内增加值(DVA)出口如何影响日本工业层面的劳动生产率和就业。我们发现,贸易的国内含量是日本所有行业生产率和就业的关键驱动因素,而落后的联系导致生产率下降并促进劳动力流离失所。一项部门分析表明,生产率对制造业的大部分后向联系和国内增值出口有利,但随着服务业后向联系的增加而减弱。我们发现DVA出口变量促进了就业,而FVA变量取代了它。
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引用次数: 4
Determinants of German and Japanese Exports: A Comparative Study 德国和日本出口的决定因素:比较研究
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.339
G. Zestos, Yixiao Jiang, Clifton Painter
This study investigates the determinants of German and Japanese exports in a comparative fashion. By estimating an autoregressive distributed lag model for each country, we find that the income elasticity of Japanese exports is three times as large as that of Germany’s exports. This relative insensitivity to external demand explains why Germany has maintained its export growth whereas Japanese exports started to stagnate after the global financial crisis. Because Germany adopted the euro in 1999, it was able to maintain large trade surpluses. If Germany had instead kept the Deutsche Mark (DM), the DM would have appreciated owing to the Central Bank of Germany’s consistent preference for a tight monetary policy, and Germany’s trade surpluses would have dissipated. A sharp increase in Japanese foreign direct investment after 2011 has also played a role in reducing Japanese exports after the global financial crisis.
本研究以比较的方式调查了德国和日本出口的决定因素。通过对每个国家的自回归分布滞后模型进行估计,我们发现日本出口的收入弹性是德国出口的三倍。这种对外部需求的相对不敏感解释了为什么德国保持了出口增长,而日本的出口在全球金融危机后开始停滞。由于德国在1999年采用欧元,它得以保持巨额贸易顺差。如果德国继续使用德国马克(DM),由于德国央行一贯倾向于从紧的货币政策,德国马克就会升值,德国的贸易顺差也会消散。2011年之后,日本对外直接投资(fdi)大幅增加,也在全球金融危机后导致日本出口减少。
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引用次数: 2
The Politicization of European Union Trade Policy: Radical-Left Euroskeptic Opposition to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership 欧盟贸易政策的政治化:激进左翼疑欧派反对跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.409
Filip Tereszkiewicz
This study aims to analyze the correlation between radical-left Euroskeptic (RLE) activity and European Union (EU) trade policy by focusing on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). At the beginning of TTIP negotiations, the agreement was not high on political agendas and was not a major concern within European society. Thus, its salience was low. This initial lack of interest stemmed from the fact that the TTIP, as an economic and technical issue, did not draw public attention. This study shows that RLEs profoundly affected public opinion on the TTIP by increasing its salience during the European parliamentary elections in 2014 in France and Germany. Second, RLEs involved social actors and non-governmental organizations in anti-TTIP campaigns and channeled European anxieties into the STOP TTIP European Citizens’ Initiative. Third, RLEs used this proposed agreement between the EU and the United States to increase polarization within European society and ideological cleavages within the European Parliament. Finally, we can assume that an anti-TTIP campaign promoted by radical-right Euroskeptics would have had different drivers. Thus, my findings have implications for understanding the correlation between RLE activity and the politicization of EU trade policy, and they suggest some avenues for future research.
本研究旨在通过关注跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系(TTIP),分析激进左翼欧洲怀疑论者(RLE)活动与欧盟(EU)贸易政策之间的相关性。在TTIP谈判之初,该协议在政治议程上并不重要,也不是欧洲社会的主要关注点。因此,它的显著性很低。最初缺乏兴趣的原因是TTIP作为一个经济和技术问题,没有引起公众的关注。这项研究表明,RLE在2014年法国和德国的欧洲议会选举中增加了TTIP的显著性,从而深刻影响了公众对TTIP的看法。其次,RLE让社会行动者和非政府组织参与反TTIP运动,并将欧洲人的焦虑引导到STOP TTIP欧洲公民倡议中。第三,RLE利用欧盟和美国之间的这项拟议协议,加剧了欧洲社会内部的两极分化和欧洲议会内部的意识形态分裂。最后,我们可以假设,由激进右翼欧洲怀疑论者推动的反TTIP运动会有不同的驱动因素。因此,我的研究结果有助于理解RLE活动与欧盟贸易政策政治化之间的相关性,并为未来的研究提供了一些途径。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of FTA on Trade in ASEAN and Australia Using Customs Level Data 自由贸易协定对东盟和澳大利亚贸易的影响——基于海关水平数据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.437
S. Thangavelu, D. Narjoko, S. Urata
This study examines the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Australia- New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) on Australian trade with a particular focus on imports from ASEAN member countries to Australia. We examine the AANZFTA’s utilization by ten ASEAN countries at the six-digit trade classification level from 2012 to 2016 using Australian customs data. We implement Ando and Urata’s (2018) and Hayakawa et al.’s (2014) framework of free trade agreement (FTA) utilization based on preferential tariff margins. We also account for overlapping FTAs that are likely to impact the AANZFTA’s utilization. The results indicate that preferential tariff margins positively impact FTA utilization. However, the results also indicate that the AANZFTA’s utilization rate across ASEAN countries is low relative to Australia’s bilateral FTAs with Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. We also find evidence that co-sharing rules of origin positively impact FTA utilization.
本研究考察了东南亚国家联盟(东盟)-澳大利亚-新西兰自由贸易协定(AANZFTA)对澳大利亚贸易的影响,特别关注东盟成员国对澳大利亚的进口。我们使用澳大利亚海关数据,研究了东盟自贸区10个东盟国家2012年至2016年六位数贸易分类水平的使用情况。我们实施Ando和Urata(2018)和Hayakawa等人(2014)基于优惠关税边际的自由贸易协定(FTA)利用框架。我们还考虑了重叠的自由贸易协定,这可能会影响到aanz自由贸易协定的利用。结果表明,优惠关税边际正向影响自由贸易协定的利用。然而,研究结果也表明,与澳大利亚与马来西亚、泰国和新加坡的双边自由贸易协定相比,澳中自由贸易协定在东盟国家的利用率较低。我们还发现共同分享原产地规则对自由贸易协定的利用有积极影响。
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引用次数: 4
Stock Market Reactions to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership’s Approval: Evidence from Vietnam 股市对《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》批准的反应:来自越南的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.462
Son Tung Ha, T. Pham, T. Nguyen
We examine the stock market performance of Vietnam’s listed firms in response to the country’s approval of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Employing an event study methodology, we first calculate the abnormal returns of all listed Vietnamese firms around the CPTPP’s approval date. Then, we attempt to link these abnormal returns to firms’ characteristics. We find evidence that the announcement of the CPTPP’s approval is associated with positive abnormal returns for Vietnam’s listed firms. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude and pace of the impacts of the CPTPP’s approval on market returns across Vietnam’s two stock exchanges. However, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the market did not react to the CPTPP’s approval at the sectoral level.
我们考察了越南上市公司对该国批准《跨太平洋伙伴关系全面与进步协定》(CPTPP)的反应。采用事件研究方法,我们首先计算了CPTPP批准日期前后所有越南上市公司的异常回报率。然后,我们试图将这些异常回报与企业特征联系起来。我们发现有证据表明,宣布批准CPTPP与越南上市公司的正异常回报有关。我们还发现,CPTPP的批准对越南两个证券交易所市场回报的影响程度和速度存在相当大的异质性。然而,我们未能拒绝市场对CPTPP在部门层面的批准没有反应的无效假设。
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引用次数: 1
Global Value Chain Participation, Competition, and Markups: Evidence from Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms 全球价值链参与、竞争和加价:来自埃塞俄比亚制造企业的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.491
Jieun Choi, Emiko Fukase, Albert G. Zeufack
This study uses detailed manufacturing census panel data for 2000 to 2014 to explore the relationship between Ethiopian firms’ global value chain (GVC) participation and markups. We find that GVC firms, defined as firms involved in both exporting and importing intermediate inputs, tend to have lower markups relative to non-trading firms and firms that are involved only in material imports. Moreover, the more intensely a firm is integrated into a GVC (measured by the share of export value added and imported inputs in total sales), the lower its markup is. Finally, we explore competition effects at the industry level and find that firms operating in industries with a relatively high GVC presence and suppliers selling inputs to such industries tend to have lower markups owing to horizontal competition and backward linkages, respectively. All of these findings suggest that GVC participation is associated with greater competition for Ethiopian firms.
本研究使用2000年至2014年的详细制造业普查小组数据,探讨埃塞俄比亚企业的全球价值链(GVC)参与与加价之间的关系。我们发现,与非贸易公司和仅参与材料进口的公司相比,全球价值链公司,即同时参与出口和进口中间投入的公司,往往具有较低的加价。此外,一家公司融入全球价值链的程度越高(以出口增加值和进口投入在总销售额中的份额衡量),其加价就越低,我们探讨了行业层面的竞争效应,发现在全球价值链相对较高的行业中运营的公司和向这些行业销售投入的供应商分别由于横向竞争和后向联系而往往具有较低的加价。所有这些发现都表明,全球价值链的参与与埃塞俄比亚公司更大的竞争有关。
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引用次数: 6
A Momentary Lapse of Reason? Assessing the Pre- and Post-Brexit Preferences of UK Citizens 一时的理智缺失?评估英国公民在脱欧前后的偏好
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.3.372
Etienne Farvaque, Muhammad Azmat Hayat, Ifrah Siddique
We analyze the persistence of the major determinants of distrust toward the European Union (EU) and pro-Brexit voting attitudes of citizens of the United Kingdom. Looking both backward and forward, our analysis confirms that Euroscepticism is deep-rooted, although the data reveal differences across different parts of the country. We observe no major transformation in the favor of the EU over the last two decades or in the post-referendum period. We also carry out an age-period-cohort analysis by interacting age and cohort effects with time to analyze the evolution of individual preferences. We find that an aging population will promote Eurosceptic assertiveness. We then implement a demographic forecasting analysis to predict whether the level of distrust of older cohorts can be offset by differing attitudes among younger cohorts in the future. On the contrary, we find that demographic trends will tend to strengthen distrust in the EU.
我们分析了英国公民对欧盟(EU)不信任和支持脱欧投票态度的主要决定因素的持久性。回顾过去和未来,我们的分析证实,欧洲怀疑主义根深蒂固,尽管数据显示了该国不同地区的差异。在过去二十年或公投后的时期,我们没有观察到对欧盟有利的重大转变。我们还进行了年龄-时期-队列分析,通过年龄和队列效应与时间的相互作用来分析个体偏好的演变。我们发现,人口老龄化将促进欧洲怀疑论者的自信。然后,我们实施人口预测分析,以预测未来年轻群体的不同态度是否可以抵消老年群体的不信任水平。相反,我们发现人口趋势将倾向于加强对欧盟的不信任。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Integration Clusters and Optimum Customs Unions: A Machine-Learning Approach 区域一体化集群与最优关税同盟:一种机器学习方法
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-31 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.2.262
P. Lombaerde, Dominik Naeher, Takfarinas Saber
This study proposes a new method to evaluate the composition of regional arrangements focused on increasing intraregional trade and economic integration. In contrast to previous studies that take the country composition of these arrangements as given, our method uses a network clustering algorithm adapted from the machine-learning literature to identify, in a data-driven way, those groups of neighboring countries that are most integrated with each other. Using the obtained landscape of regional integration clusters (RICs) as a benchmark, we then apply our method to critically assess the composition of real-world customs unions (CUs). Our results indicate a considerable variation across CUs in terms of their distance to the RICs emerging from the clustering algorithm. This suggests that some CUs are relatively more driven by “natural” economic forces, as opposed to political considerations. Our results also point to several testable hypotheses related to the geopolitical configuration of CUs.
这项研究提出了一种新的方法来评估区域安排的组成,重点是加强区域内贸易和经济一体化。与之前将这些安排的国家组成视为给定的研究不同,我们的方法使用了改编自机器学习文献的网络聚类算法,以数据驱动的方式识别彼此最为一体化的邻国群体。使用获得的区域一体化集群(RIC)景观作为基准,然后我们应用我们的方法来批判性地评估现实世界关税同盟(CU)的组成。我们的结果表明,就CU与聚类算法中出现的RIC的距离而言,CU之间存在相当大的差异。这表明,与政治因素相比,一些CU相对更受“自然”经济力量的驱动。我们的研究结果还指出了与CU的地缘政治配置有关的几个可检验的假设。
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引用次数: 2
Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Constraints: Firm-Level Evidence from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar 外国直接投资与金融约束:来自柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸的企业层面证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-31 DOI: 10.11130/JEI.2021.36.2.227
Bopith Bun
Financial constraints have been a significant obstacle to firms operating in developing countries. Prior studies show that foreign direct investment (FDI) helps to ease credit constraints for domestic firms. However, they only account for horizontal FDI spillovers. This paper therefore investigates both horizontal and vertical FDI spillovers using firm-level data from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (CLM). The key findings of this paper are threefold. First, FDI inflows lessen the financial constraints faced by local firms through partnership or joint venture. Second, an increasing share of FDI in horizontally and vertically related industries raises higher credit constraints for domestic firms. Third, the crowding-out effect of FDI is not uniform across domestic firms of different sizes. Therefore, policymakers should be aware of these possible negative spillovers and formulate policy to maintain FDI inflows while also ensuring the growth and survival of domestic firms.
资金限制一直是发展中国家企业经营的一大障碍。先前的研究表明,外国直接投资有助于缓解国内企业的信贷约束。然而,它们只考虑了外国直接投资的横向溢出效应。因此,本文利用来自柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸(CLM)的企业层面数据,研究了横向和纵向FDI溢出效应。本文的主要发现有三个方面。首先,外国直接投资流入减少了当地公司通过合作或合资企业所面临的财政限制。其次,外国直接投资在横向和纵向相关行业中所占份额的增加增加了对国内企业的信贷约束。第三,外国直接投资的挤出效应在不同规模的国内企业中并不一致。因此,政策制定者应该意识到这些可能的负面溢出效应,制定政策以保持外国直接投资流入,同时确保国内企业的增长和生存。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Journal of Economic Integration
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