The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty—the World Uncertainty Index—and focus on data from 126 countries for the period 1996–2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is procyclical.
{"title":"Economic Uncertainty and Fertility","authors":"Giray Gozgor, M. Bilgin, Peter Rangazas","doi":"10.1086/715020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/715020","url":null,"abstract":"The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic uncertainty—the World Uncertainty Index—and focus on data from 126 countries for the period 1996–2017. The empirical findings indicate that uncertainty decreases the fertility rate, as suggested by theory. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and econometric techniques as well as to the inclusion of various controls. The evidence also indicates that changes in uncertainty may be a factor explaining why fertility is procyclical.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"373 - 399"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/715020","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42065712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We evaluate the economic consequences of endogenous immigration in a two-country, two-skill, endogenous-growth model, where human and physical capital are the productive assets. Adding physical capital to the model yields new insights about the induced-immigration effects of exogenous pull and push triggers, on the evolution of the “immigration surplus” in the short versus the long run, in destination versus source countries, and in the global economy. The policy effects we analyze include the easing of constraints affecting labor and physical capital mobility at the individual-migrant level and the role of physical capital endowments. We also analyze the origin and implications of the asymmetries in the net benefits from immigration across destination and source countries.
{"title":"Endogenous Immigration, Human and Physical Capital Formation, and the Immigration Surplus","authors":"I. Ehrlich, Yun Pei","doi":"10.1086/714037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/714037","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the economic consequences of endogenous immigration in a two-country, two-skill, endogenous-growth model, where human and physical capital are the productive assets. Adding physical capital to the model yields new insights about the induced-immigration effects of exogenous pull and push triggers, on the evolution of the “immigration surplus” in the short versus the long run, in destination versus source countries, and in the global economy. The policy effects we analyze include the easing of constraints affecting labor and physical capital mobility at the individual-migrant level and the role of physical capital endowments. We also analyze the origin and implications of the asymmetries in the net benefits from immigration across destination and source countries.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"34 - 85"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/714037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43413191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore coethnic hiring among new ventures, using US administrative data. Coethnic hiring is ubiquitous among immigrant groups, averaging about 22.5% and ranging from less than 2% to more than 40%. Coethnic hiring grows with the size of the local ethnic workforce, greater linguistic distance to English, and lower cultural/genetic similarity to US natives and in harsher policy environments for immigrants. Coethnic hiring is remarkably persistent for ventures and for individuals. Coethnic hiring is associated with greater venture survival and growth when thick local ethnic employment surrounds the business. Our results are consistent with a blend of hiring due to information advantages within ethnic groups and some taste-based hiring.
{"title":"Whose Job Is It Anyway? Coethnic Hiring in New US Ventures","authors":"S. Kerr, W. Kerr","doi":"10.1086/713996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713996","url":null,"abstract":"We explore coethnic hiring among new ventures, using US administrative data. Coethnic hiring is ubiquitous among immigrant groups, averaging about 22.5% and ranging from less than 2% to more than 40%. Coethnic hiring grows with the size of the local ethnic workforce, greater linguistic distance to English, and lower cultural/genetic similarity to US natives and in harsher policy environments for immigrants. Coethnic hiring is remarkably persistent for ventures and for individuals. Coethnic hiring is associated with greater venture survival and growth when thick local ethnic employment surrounds the business. Our results are consistent with a blend of hiring due to information advantages within ethnic groups and some taste-based hiring.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"86 - 127"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713996","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47995478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Anastasopoulos, G. Borjas, Gavin G. Cook, Michael Lachanski
We use the Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Index (HWI) to document how immigrant supply shocks change the number of job vacancies. Our analysis reveals a sizable drop in Miami’s HWI relative to comparable cities in the first few years after the Mariel shock, followed by recovery afterward. An analysis of the text of the help-wanted ads also documents a significant decline in the relative number of low-skill vacancies advertised in the Miami Herald. Miami’s Beveridge curve shifted inward by the mid-1980s, suggesting a more efficient local labor market, in contrast to the outward nationwide shift coincident with the 1981–82 recession.
{"title":"Job Vacancies and Immigration: Evidence from the Mariel Supply Shock","authors":"L. Anastasopoulos, G. Borjas, Gavin G. Cook, Michael Lachanski","doi":"10.1086/713041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713041","url":null,"abstract":"We use the Conference Board’s Help-Wanted Index (HWI) to document how immigrant supply shocks change the number of job vacancies. Our analysis reveals a sizable drop in Miami’s HWI relative to comparable cities in the first few years after the Mariel shock, followed by recovery afterward. An analysis of the text of the help-wanted ads also documents a significant decline in the relative number of low-skill vacancies advertised in the Miami Herald. Miami’s Beveridge curve shifted inward by the mid-1980s, suggesting a more efficient local labor market, in contrast to the outward nationwide shift coincident with the 1981–82 recession.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"1 - 33"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713041","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48821796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the effect of immigration on gender gaps. Using an equilibrium structural model for the US economy, I simulate the importance of two mechanisms: the differential increase in labor market competition from immigration on male and female workers and the availability of cheaper childcare services. Aggregate effects on gender and participation gaps are negligible. Females are more negatively affected by labor market competition, but the availability of cheaper childcare compensates for these effects. This generates heterogeneity in the effects along skill distribution: gender gaps are increased at the bottom and reduced at the top. Human capital adjustments are also heterogeneous.
{"title":"Immigration and Gender Differences in the Labor Market","authors":"J. Llull","doi":"10.1086/713725","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713725","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the effect of immigration on gender gaps. Using an equilibrium structural model for the US economy, I simulate the importance of two mechanisms: the differential increase in labor market competition from immigration on male and female workers and the availability of cheaper childcare services. Aggregate effects on gender and participation gaps are negligible. Females are more negatively affected by labor market competition, but the availability of cheaper childcare compensates for these effects. This generates heterogeneity in the effects along skill distribution: gender gaps are increased at the bottom and reduced at the top. Human capital adjustments are also heterogeneous.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"174 - 203"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713725","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45543278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When comparing high- to low-immigrant locations, a large literature documents small effects of immigration on labor market outcomes over 10-year horizons. The literature also documents short-run negative effects of immigrant-driven labor supply shocks, at least for some groups of native workers. Taken together, these results suggest that there are mechanisms in place that help local economies recover from the short-run effects of immigrant shocks. This paper introduces a small-open-city spatial equilibrium model that allows, with simple reduced-form estimates of the effects of immigrant shocks on the outcomes of interest, the local adjustment to be decomposed through various channels.
{"title":"Local Adjustment to Immigrant-Driven Labor Supply Shocks","authors":"Joan Monras","doi":"10.1086/713148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713148","url":null,"abstract":"When comparing high- to low-immigrant locations, a large literature documents small effects of immigration on labor market outcomes over 10-year horizons. The literature also documents short-run negative effects of immigrant-driven labor supply shocks, at least for some groups of native workers. Taken together, these results suggest that there are mechanisms in place that help local economies recover from the short-run effects of immigrant shocks. This paper introduces a small-open-city spatial equilibrium model that allows, with simple reduced-form estimates of the effects of immigrant shocks on the outcomes of interest, the local adjustment to be decomposed through various channels.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"204 - 235"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713148","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45580145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many developing countries experiencing poor domestic economic performance view migrant labor as an alternative. We employ a macrodynamic model of two small open economies—a host country and a labor-exporting developing country—to address this issue. We analyze how both economies are impacted by alternative tax policies, structural changes occurring in the two economies, and plausible fiscal policy responses. The most important feature of the model is that remittances are endogenized by being linked to the household members’ decisions to migrate. Extensive numerical simulations provide important implications for both fiscal and migration policies and address important questions regarding the current efforts put forward by governments of several developing countries to encourage migrant labor.
{"title":"Migrant Labor and Remittances: Macroeconomic Consequences and Policy Responses","authors":"Sokchea Lim, A. M. Morshed, S. Turnovsky","doi":"10.1086/713403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713403","url":null,"abstract":"Many developing countries experiencing poor domestic economic performance view migrant labor as an alternative. We employ a macrodynamic model of two small open economies—a host country and a labor-exporting developing country—to address this issue. We analyze how both economies are impacted by alternative tax policies, structural changes occurring in the two economies, and plausible fiscal policy responses. The most important feature of the model is that remittances are endogenized by being linked to the household members’ decisions to migrate. Extensive numerical simulations provide important implications for both fiscal and migration policies and address important questions regarding the current efforts put forward by governments of several developing countries to encourage migrant labor.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"128 - 173"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713403","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44626507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Chung, Jungmin Lee, Y. Sawada, Seung-Gyu Sim, Jinyeong Son
Using unique data on 210 Korean children from surveys and experiments, this paper examines whether living environments matter for child development. We compare two groups of out-of-home children in different environments: traditional orphanage-type institutions and family-like group homes. We exploit the arguably random assignment of children to institutions, generated by variation in the relative availability of group homes across regions over the years. We find that children in group homes are more altruistic, emotionally stable, satisfied with school, and forward-looking. Our findings suggest that family-like environments with fewer coresidents and more intimate relationships are beneficial to children separated from their parents.
{"title":"Living Environments and Child Development: Comparing Two Groups of Out-of-Home Children","authors":"I. Chung, Jungmin Lee, Y. Sawada, Seung-Gyu Sim, Jinyeong Son","doi":"10.1086/713568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713568","url":null,"abstract":"Using unique data on 210 Korean children from surveys and experiments, this paper examines whether living environments matter for child development. We compare two groups of out-of-home children in different environments: traditional orphanage-type institutions and family-like group homes. We exploit the arguably random assignment of children to institutions, generated by variation in the relative availability of group homes across regions over the years. We find that children in group homes are more altruistic, emotionally stable, satisfied with school, and forward-looking. Our findings suggest that family-like environments with fewer coresidents and more intimate relationships are beneficial to children separated from their parents.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"15 1","pages":"346 - 371"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/713568","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44426840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine gender and race differences in education-mortality trends among 25–64-year-olds in the United States from 2001 to 2018. Relationships are heterogeneous by race and education, with larger mortality reductions for less educated non-Hispanic Blacks than for other races and mixed results at higher levels of schooling. Drug overdoses represent the single most important contributor to increased death rates for all groups, but the magnitudes vary sharply. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and HIV are the most significant sources of mortality rate reductions, with heterogeneous patterns again by sex, race, and educational attainment. Examining specific causes of death can provide a more nuanced understanding of the health shocks affecting population subgroups.
{"title":"Education Gradients in Mortality Trends by Gender and Race","authors":"Adam A. Leive, C. Ruhm","doi":"10.1086/717544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717544","url":null,"abstract":"We examine gender and race differences in education-mortality trends among 25–64-year-olds in the United States from 2001 to 2018. Relationships are heterogeneous by race and education, with larger mortality reductions for less educated non-Hispanic Blacks than for other races and mixed results at higher levels of schooling. Drug overdoses represent the single most important contributor to increased death rates for all groups, but the magnitudes vary sharply. Cardiovascular disease, cancer, and HIV are the most significant sources of mortality rate reductions, with heterogeneous patterns again by sex, race, and educational attainment. Examining specific causes of death can provide a more nuanced understanding of the health shocks affecting population subgroups.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"16 1","pages":"47 - 72"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47590856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We exploit a randomized experiment in Italian schools to assess the causal effect of both an external monitoring program and a sanctions program on cheating behavior and absence rates. We find, in line with previous studies, that external monitoring is effective in deterring cheating occurring during and after the test. We show evidence of a strategic response to monitoring in terms of higher absence rates. Sanctions are not effective in reducing cheating, while they might have a discipline effect in decreasing absence rates. Both programs work better in institutional settings that make the potential loss of reputation costlier to the school.
{"title":"Monitoring and Sanctioning Cheating at School: What Works? Evidence from a National Evaluation Program","authors":"C. Lucifora, Marco Tonello","doi":"10.1086/711760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711760","url":null,"abstract":"We exploit a randomized experiment in Italian schools to assess the causal effect of both an external monitoring program and a sanctions program on cheating behavior and absence rates. We find, in line with previous studies, that external monitoring is effective in deterring cheating occurring during and after the test. We show evidence of a strategic response to monitoring in terms of higher absence rates. Sanctions are not effective in reducing cheating, while they might have a discipline effect in decreasing absence rates. Both programs work better in institutional settings that make the potential loss of reputation costlier to the school.","PeriodicalId":46011,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Human Capital","volume":"14 1","pages":"584 - 616"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/711760","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42518055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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