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The two surges: Iraq and Afghanistan in comparison 两大浪潮:伊拉克和阿富汗的对比
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-26 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2113675
L. Cline
ABSTRACT As the strategic environments worsened both in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US tried to improve security by sharply increasing the number of troops. In the case of Iraq, the US achieved at least operational success, but the results were seemingly minimal in Afghanistan. Two factors were critical in Iraq: surge forces were focused on a relatively small center of gravity, and the operations were greatly assisted by the rise of the Awakening movement. The additional forces in Afghanistan had a much broader geographical area for their operations, and although efforts were made to mobilize local security forces, the results were at best mixed. The public time constraints on the additional forces in Afghanistan also were more prominent, leading to a ‘good enough’ approach by necessity. Although not strictly part of the surge, the US was able to turn over more security responsibilities to Iraqi forces as the ‘clear-hold-build-transfer’ process than they were to the Afghanistan forces. The results in Afghanistan in particular lead to questions as to how well expeditionary counterinsurgency forces can succeed in widespread insurgencies.
摘要随着伊拉克和阿富汗战略环境的恶化,美国试图通过大幅增加军队数量来改善安全。在伊拉克问题上,美国至少在行动上取得了成功,但在阿富汗问题上的成果似乎微乎其微。在伊拉克有两个关键因素:增兵部队集中在相对较小的重心上,而觉醒运动的兴起极大地帮助了行动。阿富汗增派部队的行动地域要广得多,尽管努力动员当地安全部队,但结果充其量是喜忧参半。对阿富汗增派部队的公开时间限制也更加突出,这必然导致采取“足够好”的方法。尽管严格意义上不是增兵的一部分,但美国能够将更多的安全责任移交给伊拉克部队,作为“明确的控制-建立-移交”过程,而不是移交给阿富汗部队。阿富汗的结果尤其引发了一个问题,即远征反叛乱部队在多大程度上能够成功应对广泛的叛乱。
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引用次数: 0
Blown like cotton in the wind: women’s experiences of the White Lotus War (1796-1804) 像风中的棉花一样被吹动:白莲花战争中的妇女经历(1796-1804)
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-21 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2111497
James Bonk
ABSTRACT This article explores women’s experiences during the White Lotus War (1796–1804), examining disparities related to the state’s calculation of women’s value as agents of institutional reproduction, sources of intelligence, and symbols of disorder. The state cared assiduously for widows of officers killed in battle, converting their grief into a commitment to raising sons as officers, while offering only meagre assistance to soldiers’ widows. Interrogators used female captives to verify identities of captured men, taking their emotions as evidence of attachment. Officials resettling female refugees treated them as threats to social order who need to be returned to families or remarried.
摘要本文探讨了白莲战争(1796-1804)期间女性的经历,考察了与国家对女性作为制度再生产代理人、智力来源和混乱象征的价值计算有关的差异。国家不遗余力地照顾阵亡军官的遗孀,将他们的悲痛转化为抚养儿子成为军官的承诺,同时只为士兵的遗孀提供微薄的援助。审讯人员利用女性俘虏来核实被俘男子的身份,并将他们的情绪作为依恋的证据。安置女性难民的官员将她们视为对社会秩序的威胁,需要将她们送回家庭或再婚。
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引用次数: 0
The donbas in flames: an operational level analysis of Russia”s 2014-2015 donbas campaign 燃烧的顿巴斯:俄罗斯2014-2015年顿巴斯战役的操作层面分析
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2111496
Amos C. Fox
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引用次数: 3
Afghanistan and the COIN conundrum 阿富汗和反叛军难题
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2111858
T. Mockaitis
America's longest war ended unceremoniously in August 2021 amid chaotic scenes of Afghan civilians storming the Kabul airport in a desperate effort to board a flight out of the country. The twenty-year war took the lives of 2,448 U.S. service members, 1,144 allied service members, 66,000 Afghan military and police, 3,846 U.S. contractors, 444 aid workers, 72 journalists, and 47,245 Afghan civilians as well as 51,191 Taliban and other insurgents. It cost the United States an estimated $2 trillion, billions of it spent on an Afghan army that collapsed in a matter of weeks. By any measure the mission was an utter failure bought at a terrible price in blood and treasure. While the current public argument focuses on assigning political blame, a more serious discussion has already begun. Debate rests on a broad fundamental question: Did failure result from mistakes made at crucial junctures during the campaign, or was the war unwinnable at a cost the United States could bear? Many of those analysts who insist that the war was lost rather than unwinnable focus on the early days of the conflict. The invasion of Afghanistan and initial occupation went very well, they note. President George W. Bush sent an ultimatum to the Taliban government of Mullah Mohammed Omar: turn over all al-Qaeda leaders, close terrorist training camps, and give the United States access to the camps to make sure they remain closed. Omar refused, and the U.S. invaded with the full support of NATO, which for the first time in its history invoked article 5 of its founding treaty declaring that an attack upon one member is an attack upon all, in response to 9/11. The bombing campaign began on October 7, by midNovember, coalition forces in cooperation with the Northern Alliance had taken the capital Kabul and all major cities, and by early December, the Taliban had collapsed. It took the coalition about a year and half to pacify the countryside, but bin Laden escaped to the border region of Pakistan.
这场美国持续时间最长的战争于2021年8月不期而至地结束,当时阿富汗平民冲进喀布尔机场,不顾一切地想要登机离开阿富汗。在这场长达20年的战争中,2448名美国军人、1144名盟军军人、66,000名阿富汗军人和警察、3846名美国承包商、444名援助人员、72名记者、47245名阿富汗平民以及51,191名塔利班和其他叛乱分子丧生。据估计,美国为此花费了2万亿美元,其中数十亿美元花在了短短几周内就崩溃的阿富汗军队身上。无论以何种标准衡量,这次任务都是一次彻底的失败,付出了可怕的鲜血和财富代价。虽然目前的公众争论集中在政治责任上,但一场更严肃的讨论已经开始。辩论围绕着一个广泛的基本问题:失败是由于在竞选的关键时刻犯下的错误,还是由于美国能够承受的代价而无法赢得这场战争?许多坚持认为这场战争是失败的,而不是无法取胜的分析人士关注的是冲突的最初几天。他们指出,对阿富汗的入侵和最初的占领进行得非常顺利。乔治·w·布什总统向毛拉·穆罕默德·奥马尔领导的塔利班政府发出了最后通牒:交出所有基地组织领导人,关闭恐怖分子训练营,并允许美国进入这些营地以确保它们继续关闭。奥马尔拒绝了,美国在北约的全力支持下出兵。作为对9/11事件的回应,北约历史上第一次援引其创始条约的第5条,宣布对一个成员国的攻击就是对所有成员国的攻击。轰炸行动于10月7日开始,到11月中旬,联合部队与北方联盟合作占领了首都喀布尔和所有主要城市,到12月初,塔利班已经垮台。联军花了大约一年半的时间才平息了农村地区,但本·拉登逃到了巴基斯坦边境地区。
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引用次数: 1
Understanding the role of digital media in female participation in terrorism: the case of Bangladesh 了解数位媒体在女性参与恐怖主义中的角色:孟加拉案例
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-17 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2109371
Saimum Parvez, Justin V. Hastings
ABSTRACT Notwithstanding the discernable participation of women in terrorist groups, empirical research on women in terrorism is very scant in Bangladesh. To fill this gap, our article examines women’s involvement in terrorism by analyzing the life stories of dozens of Bangladeshi women terrorists. We use a terrorist lifecycle approach to understand the role of digital media in female participation, particularly in terms of when in the lifecycle digital media becomes important, and in terms of how digital media interacts with other factors to shape women’s involvement in terrorist organizations. After analyzing female profiles and their socio-demographic traits, we provide an in-depth analysis of three female terrorist lifecycles. An analysis of the profiles of Bangladeshi terrorists who use digital media reveals that women were more likely to use digital media than men in the recruitment phase. The in-depth case studies of three female terrorist profiles find that multiple and different factors impact their terrorist life cycles. Social networks – families and friends – typically play a role in individuals’ decision to become involved and further engagement in terrorism. Specifically, digital media allows women to expand their social interactions beyond what is possible in person, thus allowing for virtual pathways into terrorism.
尽管在恐怖组织中有明显的女性参与,但在孟加拉国,关于女性参与恐怖主义的实证研究非常少。为了填补这一空白,我们的文章通过分析数十名孟加拉国女性恐怖分子的生活故事来审视女性参与恐怖主义的情况。我们使用恐怖分子生命周期的方法来理解数字媒体在女性参与中的作用,特别是在生命周期中数字媒体变得重要的时候,以及数字媒体如何与其他因素相互作用以塑造女性参与恐怖组织。在分析了女性特征及其社会人口特征后,我们对三种女性恐怖分子的生命周期进行了深入分析。对使用数字媒体的孟加拉国恐怖分子档案的分析显示,在招募阶段,女性比男性更有可能使用数字媒体。对三名女性恐怖分子的深入案例研究发现,多重不同的因素影响着她们的恐怖生命周期。社会网络——家庭和朋友——通常在个人决定参与和进一步参与恐怖主义方面发挥作用。具体来说,数字媒体使女性能够扩大自己的社交互动,从而为进入恐怖主义提供了虚拟途径。
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引用次数: 2
Foreign fighter experience and impact 国外战斗机的经验和影响
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2109888
Nicola Mathieson
ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between prior conflict experience and the impact of foreign fighters on armed groups. This paper addresses the findings in existing research that describes foreign fighters as both assets and liabilities by disaggregating foreign fighters into first-conflict foreign fighters and veteran foreign fighters. While prior experience determines the potential impact of foreign fighters, I introduce the concept of foreign fighter integration to understand how this experience is utilized or leveraged by armed groups. The theory-building framework helps explain why we see certain groups leverage foreign fighters in ways that shape their repertoires of violence, tactics, or even ideology, while, in other instances, the influence of foreign fighters appears to be limited – with any consequent effects restricted to the small factions into which foreign fighters have been assigned. Using this theoretical framework of experience and integration, I re-examine in the cases Somalia and Bosnia and Herzegovina to demonstrate how and where foreign fighters impact armed groups.
摘要本文探讨了先前的冲突经历与外国战斗人员对武装团体的影响之间的关系。本文通过将外国战斗人员分解为首次冲突外国战斗人员和资深外国战斗人员,解决了现有研究中将外国战斗人员描述为资产和负债的发现。虽然先前的经验决定了外国战斗人员的潜在影响,但我引入了外国战斗人员整合的概念,以了解武装团体如何利用或利用这种经验。这一理论构建框架有助于解释为什么我们看到某些组织利用外国战斗人员来塑造他们的暴力、战术甚至意识形态,而在其他情况下,外国战斗人员的影响似乎是有限的——任何由此产生的影响都局限于外国战斗人员被分配到的小派别。利用这一经验和一体化的理论框架,我重新审视了索马里和波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的情况,以展示外国战斗人员如何以及在何处影响武装团体。
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引用次数: 1
Dynamic insurgencies and peace nuances in India’s northeast region 印度东北地区活跃的叛乱与和平的微妙差别
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2108277
Anns George K G, S. Jha
ABSTRACT The intended purpose of this paper is to examine the viability of political resolution as a counterinsurgency strategy. We have selected numerous political negotiation processes between insurgents and government of India in general and Mizoram in particular. The political resolution with Mizo National Front is considered as the most successful counterinsurgency operation in India. Placing this as a model, the government of India employed the strategy of negotiation with various other insurgent groups. The degree of success in Mizoram was not replicated in other insurgency theatres. This was analyzed with the help of a comparative study with other insurgent groups in India, particularly within the state of Assam. It is found that the model of Mizo resolution has been influencing the peace process that came later. And also the strategy of negotiation has been evolving into incorporating civil society groups as signatories to the final peace settlement signed between insurgents and government. This analysis of the peace process is also based on the conceptualization developed from various authors.
摘要本文的目的是考察政治解决作为反叛乱战略的可行性。我们选择了叛乱分子和印度政府,特别是米佐拉姆政府之间的许多政治谈判进程。与米佐国民阵线的政治决议被认为是印度最成功的反叛乱行动。印度政府以此为榜样,采取了与其他各种叛乱组织谈判的策略。米佐拉姆邦的成功程度在其他叛乱地区没有得到复制。这是在与印度其他叛乱组织,特别是阿萨姆邦的叛乱组织进行比较研究的帮助下进行分析的。研究发现,米佐决议模式一直在影响后来的和平进程。此外,谈判战略也在演变为将民间社会团体纳入叛乱分子与政府签署的最终和平解决方案的签署方。这种对和平进程的分析也是基于不同作者提出的概念。
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引用次数: 0
Behind enemy lines: State-insurgent cooperation on rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka 敌后:科特迪瓦和斯里兰卡国家与叛乱分子在叛军治理方面的合作
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2104297
S. van Baalen, Niels Terpstra
ABSTRACT This article examines the conditions that foster state-insurgent cooperation in rebel governance. State-insurgent cooperation is puzzling because it can alienate hardliners, undermine the parties’ legitimacy, reveal sensitive information, and cause autonomy losses. We propose that conflict parties are more likely to discount these costs when they have overlapping civilian constituencies with high governance provision expectations. Analysing rebel governance in Côte d’Ivoire and Sri Lanka using original data, we find that civilian expectations prompt cooperation even when the parties appeal to separate constituencies. The article nuances existing theories of rebel governance and contributes new knowledge on state-insurgent interactions in civil war.
摘要本文考察了在叛军治理中促进国家与叛军合作的条件。国家与叛乱分子的合作令人费解,因为它会疏远强硬派,破坏各方的合法性,泄露敏感信息,并导致自治权损失。我们建议,当冲突各方有重叠的文职选民,对治理规定的期望很高时,他们更有可能低估这些成本。使用原始数据分析科特迪瓦和斯里兰卡的叛军治理,我们发现,即使当各方呼吁不同的选区时,平民的期望也会促使合作。这篇文章对现有的反叛分子治理理论进行了细微的区分,并为内战中国家与反叛分子的互动提供了新的知识。
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引用次数: 8
Non-state actors and modern technology 非国家行为体和现代技术
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2104298
Andrea Beccaro
ABSTRACT The paper focuses on how technology impacts on irregular conflicts, i.e. conflicts fought by non-state actors. The ability to inflict destruction and produce casualties is no longer directly related to the ability to organize large numbers of people and manage vast stores of resources that has been typical of large, organized state armies, and consequently smaller groups can now inflict more serious and extensive damage than their predecessors. It follows that the relationship between irregular fighters and technology is one of the most crucial elements in understanding contemporary conflicts. The paper is divided into five sections. The first is a brief paragraph focused on the definition problem, explaining why and how we use the term ‘irregular fighters’, and the second is a historical overview on how the relationship between ‘irregular fighters’ and technology has changed in the last two centuries. The third section is a study of current trends in the relationship between modern technology and current irregular warfare. The fourth section is intended to study current impacts of technology on irregular warfare, looking at ISIS’s operations in 2016–2017 and its use of drones. Finally, the conclusions section presents both lessons learned and findings.
摘要本文主要研究技术如何影响非正常冲突,即非国家行为者之间的冲突。造成破坏和伤亡的能力不再与组织大量人员和管理大量资源的能力直接相关,这是大型有组织的国家军队的典型特征,因此,较小的团体现在可以比其前身造成更严重、更广泛的破坏。由此可见,非正规战斗人员与技术之间的关系是理解当代冲突的最关键因素之一。本文分为五个部分。第一段是一个简短的段落,重点讨论了定义问题,解释了我们为什么以及如何使用“非正规战斗机”一词,第二段是关于“非正规战机”与技术之间的关系在过去两个世纪中如何变化的历史概述。第三部分是研究现代技术与当前非正规战争关系的当前趋势。第四部分旨在研究技术对非正规战争的当前影响,考察ISIS在2016-2017年的行动及其对无人机的使用。最后,结论部分介绍了经验教训和调查结果。
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引用次数: 0
Thorny identity? Non-state actors, service provision, identities, and Hamas in Gaza 荆棘身份?非国家行为者、服务提供、身份和加沙的哈马斯
IF 0.8 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-26 DOI: 10.1080/09592318.2022.2097399
A. Alijla
ABSTRACT When rebels and non-state actors provide services, do they have an effect on identities? The literature suggests that service provision by rebel’s influence identities, which affect post-conflict reconstruction and have some policy-implications on service provision. I argue that service provision has a potential effect on sub-identities and shape the preference of how people self-identify themselves. Based on a conjoint experiment in Gaza, I explore how Hamas’ governance has affected self-reported identities in the Gaza Strip after more than a decade of taking control of the Gaza Strip. The findings suggest that Hamas’s governance has influenced the self-reported identities in Gaza. It suggests that individuals with higher education, higher income and believes that Hamas provides less services tends to identify themselves in nationalistic sense as ‘Only Palestinian’, while individuals who identify themselves more as Muslims are less educated, have less income and more believes that Hamas provides more services than others.
当叛军和非国家行为体提供服务时,他们对身份有影响吗?文献表明,叛军的服务提供影响身份,影响冲突后重建,并对服务提供具有一定的政策意义。我认为,服务提供对子身份有潜在的影响,并塑造了人们如何自我认同的偏好。基于在加沙的一项联合实验,我探讨了哈马斯在控制加沙地带十多年后,其治理如何影响加沙地带自我报告的身份。调查结果表明,哈马斯的治理影响了加沙地区自我报告的身份。研究表明,受过高等教育、收入较高且认为哈马斯提供的服务较少的个人倾向于在民族主义意义上将自己视为“唯一的巴勒斯坦人”,而那些更认同自己为穆斯林的个人则受教育程度较低、收入较低,更相信哈马斯提供的服务多于其他人。
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引用次数: 2
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Small Wars and Insurgencies
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