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COMPARISON OF CREATIVE ACCOUNTING RISKS IN SMALL ENTERPRISES: THE DIFFERENT BRANCHES PERSPECTIVE 小企业创造性会计风险比较:不同分支机构的视角
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-1-007
Z. Drábková, Martin Pech
Small enterprises are exposed to new challenges in examining the impact of creative accounting on their financial statements, particularly when assessing ‘going concerned’ conditions and increasing the risk of fraud. The article aims to identify accounting errors and fraud risks made by accounting adjustments, thus distorting the true and fair presentation of financial statements. We aim to explore the risks of creative accounting based on the relationship between profit creation (EBT) and cash flow (CF) by applying the CFEBT risk triangle method. We analyze small enterprises operating mainly in the trade, processing, and construction industry to achieve this. The detected risks of accounting records were subsequently compared and evaluated in the selected branches of activities. Our research findings confirmed that M-score values were primarily negative for the monitored industries of small enterprises. The resulting values point to applying creative accounting methods – earning management, which pursues, in particular, tax optimization, and, on the other hand, the fulfilment of profitability criteria. A more profound analysis of selected accounting items and financial indicators confirmed more substantial differences between the trade and construction industries. Differences between the branches were found in one-half of the financial indicators and most of the 14 accounting items monitored. The accounting risks ascertained may be used as a tool for reducing the information asymmetry between authors of accounting records and users of reported accounting data and information. The detection and evaluation of risks of accounting errors and errors beyond the economic substance of reported data may considerably improve the quality of decision-making of internal and external users and is also used by persons authorized to conduct the administration and Corporate Governance for increasing the efficiency of enterprises’ internal control systems.
小企业在审查创造性会计对其财务报表的影响方面面临新的挑战,特别是在评估“持续经营”状况和增加欺诈风险时。本文旨在识别会计调整造成的会计差错和舞弊风险,从而扭曲财务报表的真实公允列报。本文旨在运用CFEBT风险三角方法,从利润创造(EBT)与现金流量(CF)的关系出发,探讨创新会计的风险。我们分析了主要在贸易、加工和建筑行业经营的小企业来实现这一目标。随后在选定的活动分支中比较和评价会计记录所发现的风险。我们的研究结果证实,对于小企业的监测行业,m得分值主要是负的。由此产生的价值指向应用创造性的会计方法-盈余管理,特别是追求税收优化,另一方面,实现盈利标准。对选定的会计项目和财务指标进行了更深入的分析,证实了贸易和建筑行业之间存在更大的差异。各分行之间在一半的财务指标和监测的14个会计项目中的大多数方面存在差异。确定的会计风险可以用作减少会计记录的作者和报告的会计数据和信息的使用者之间的信息不对称的工具。对会计错误和报告数据经济实质以外的错误风险的发现和评估,可以大大提高内部和外部用户的决策质量,也被授权进行行政管理和公司治理的人员用于提高企业内部控制系统的效率。
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引用次数: 5
FACTORS HINDERING THE CONDUCT OF AUDITS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY REPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND 阻碍企业社会责任报告审计的因素:来自波兰的证据
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-1-002
A. Bartoszewicz, A. Rutkowska-Ziarko
This article presents the results of empirical research conducted among audit firms in Poland regarding the factors hindering the provision of non-financial information verification and attestation services. The rapidly developing practice of non-financial reporting among socially responsible entities in Poland does not translate into the number of reports that are subjected to external audits. Despite the unquestionable need to confirm the reliability of non-financial data, services of this type are not provided by the majority of audit firms. The primary aim of the article is to identify the factors hindering the performance of audits of non-financial reports in Poland. The article identifies the entities operating in the Polish audit market in terms of selected features. The authors provided answers to three main research questions: What percentage of audit firms in Poland carry out the verification of non-financial reports? What is the size and the level of employment of audit firms in Poland? What factors hinder, in the auditors’ practice, the performance of audits of non- financial reports? To achieve the objective, a survey research was conducted among audit firms under the supervision of the Polish Agency of Audit Oversight. The theoretical basis of the article included a literature study on the audit of non-financial reports as well as an analysis of regulations governing this subject matter in Poland. This study is the first such review of factors that condition the use of such an important tool as an audit in non-financial reporting. The obtained study results indicate that only 2.3% of audit firms perform audits of CSR reports. The main factor that limits audit firms in the performance of this type of services is the low demand in this regard. Moreover, the audits of non-financial reports are limited by insufficient staff.
本文介绍了在波兰审计公司之间进行的关于阻碍提供非财务信息验证和认证服务的因素的实证研究结果。波兰社会责任实体之间迅速发展的非财务报告做法并没有转化为接受外部审计的报告数量。尽管毫无疑问需要确认非财务数据的可靠性,但大多数审计公司并不提供这类服务。本文的主要目的是确定阻碍波兰非财务报告审计业绩的因素。本文根据所选择的特征确定了在波兰审计市场上经营的实体。作者提供了三个主要研究问题的答案:波兰有多少比例的审计公司对非财务报告进行核查?波兰审计公司的规模和就业水平是什么?在审计实践中,哪些因素阻碍了非财务报告审计的执行?为了实现这一目标,在波兰审计监督机构的监督下,对审计公司进行了调查研究。这篇文章的理论基础包括对非财务报告审计的文献研究以及对波兰管理这一主题的条例的分析。这项研究是第一次对制约在非财务报告中使用审计这一重要工具的因素进行审查。获得的研究结果表明,只有2.3%的审计事务所对企业社会责任报告进行审计。限制审计公司提供这类服务的主要因素是这方面的低需求。此外,非财务报告的审计工作因工作人员不足而受到限制。
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引用次数: 4
DO LINKS TO TAX HAVENS AFFECT COMPANIES’ FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE? THE CASE OF SLOVAKIA 与避税天堂的联系会影响公司的财务表现吗?斯洛伐克的案例
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2022-1-004
Ľuboš Elexa, M. Istok, Lea Šlampiaková
This paper aims to quantify the impact of direct equity ownership links between Slovak companies and tax havens. We distinguish between three types of tax haven: onshore, midshore and offshore. The financial impacts are measured by indicators of profitability (ROA); activity (total asset turnover); liquidity (current ratio); and bankruptcy (IN05). To measure the impacts, we link the Bisnode and Finstat databases. The first database lists those Slovak companies that had links with tax havens during 2005–2015. The second provides financial statements for all Slovak companies. It was found that: 1) There are statistically significant differences in all investigated indicators between Slovak companies with and without links to tax havens. Those with links to tax havens generally reported worse economic situations and levels of performance compared to those without such links. We conclude that having a parent company resident in a tax haven had a negative effect on financial performance. 2) There are statistically significant differences between the selected indicators of company performance, across the different categories of tax haven, and for companies with no links to tax havens. 3) Those with no such links show statistically significant correlations between all their examined performance indicators. But for those companies with links to tax havens, the only statistically significant correlation was between profitability and the remaining indicators. 4) Companies with ownership links to tax havens are clearly engaged in profit-shifting activities. The results suggest opportunities for follow-up projects, especially focusing on different industries and company size that could specify their heterogeneous approaches and variability in objectives.
本文旨在量化斯洛伐克公司和避税天堂之间直接股权联系的影响。我们区分了三种类型的避税天堂:在岸、中岸和离岸。财务影响通过盈利能力指标(ROA)来衡量;活动(总资产周转率);流动性(流动比率);破产(2005年)。为了衡量影响,我们将Bisnode和Finstat数据库连接起来。第一个数据库列出了2005-2015年间与避税天堂有联系的斯洛伐克公司。第二份提供所有斯洛伐克公司的财务报表。研究发现:1)与避税天堂有联系和没有联系的斯洛伐克公司在所有调查指标上存在统计学上的显著差异。与没有这种联系的国家相比,与避税天堂有联系的国家的经济状况和业绩水平普遍较差。我们得出的结论是,母公司位于避税天堂对财务绩效有负面影响。2)在不同类别的避税天堂之间,以及与避税天堂没有联系的公司之间,所选的公司绩效指标之间存在统计学上的显著差异。(3)不存在此类关联的企业,其考核的各项绩效指标之间存在显著的统计学相关性。但对于那些与避税天堂有关联的公司来说,唯一具有统计学意义的相关性是盈利能力与其他指标之间的相关性。4)所有权与避税天堂有关联的公司显然参与了利润转移活动。结果表明后续项目的机会,特别是关注不同的行业和公司规模,可以指定他们的异质方法和目标的可变性。
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引用次数: 4
THE IMPACT OF INTRADAY MOMENTUM ON STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM S&P500 AND CSI300 盘中动能对股票回报的影响:标准普尔500指数和沪深300指数的证据
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-008
Saddam Hossain, B. Gavurová, Xianghui Yuan, M. Hasan, J. Oláh
This paper analyzes the statistical impact of COVID-19 on the S&P500 and the CSI300 intraday momentum. This study employs an empirical method, that is, the intraday momentum method used in this research. Also, the predictability of timing conditional strategies is also used here to predict the intraday momentum of stock returns. In addition, this study aims to estimate and forecast the coefficients in the stock market pandemic crisis through a robust standard error approach. The empirical findings indicate that the intraday market behavior an unusual balanced; the volatility and trading volume imbalance and the return trends are losing overwhelmingly. The consequence is that the first half-hour return will forecast the last half-hour return of the S&P500, but during the pandemic shock, the last half-hour of both stock markets will not have a significant impact on intraday momentum. Additionally, market timing strategy analysis is a significant factor in the stock market because it shows the perfect trading time, decides investment opportunities and which stocks will perform well on this day. Besides, we also found that when the volatility and volume of the S&P500 are both at a high level, the first half-hour has been a positive impact, while at the low level, the CSI300 has a negative impact on the last half-hour. In addition, this shows that the optimistic effect and positive outlook of the stockholders for the S&P500 is in the first half-hours after weekend on Monday morning because market open during the weekend holiday, and the mentality of every stockholder’s indicate the positive impression of the stock market.
本文分析了新冠肺炎疫情对标准普尔500指数和沪深300指数盘中走势的统计影响。本研究采用实证方法,即本研究中使用的日内动量法。同时,时机条件策略的可预测性也被用于预测股票收益的盘中动量。此外,本研究旨在通过稳健的标准误差方法估计和预测股市大流行危机的系数。实证结果表明,日内市场行为异常均衡;波动性和交易量的不平衡以及收益的趋势是压倒性的损失。其结果是,前半小时的回报将预测标准普尔500指数最后半小时的回报,但在疫情冲击期间,两个股市的最后半小时不会对盘中势头产生重大影响。此外,市场时机策略分析是股票市场的一个重要因素,因为它显示了完美的交易时间,决定了投资机会和哪些股票在这一天会表现良好。此外,我们还发现,当标准普尔500指数的波动率和成交量都处于高位时,前半小时对其产生积极影响,而在低位时,上证300指数对后半小时产生消极影响。此外,这表明,由于市场在周末假期开放,周一早上,股东对标准普尔500指数的乐观效应和积极前景是在周末后的前半小时,每个股东的心态都表明了对股市的积极印象。
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引用次数: 2
IMPRESSION MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF COPING WITH ENTREPRENEURIAL FAILURE STIGMA: A TWO-PATH THEORETICAL MODEL 应对创业失败污名的印象管理策略:一个双路径理论模型
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-005
Zhuang Xiong, Junzhou Yan, Lingling Wang
Impression management strategy is an important way to cope with the stigma of failed entrepreneurial firms. However, most existing studies only focused on the process of impression management with a single strategy. Few studies have provided a systematic theoretical explanation on how to use different types of impression management strategies to cope with stigma. To fill this theoretical gap, a two-path model of impression management of entrepreneurial failure stigma was constructed, based on the two-component model of impression management. In addition, the mechanism of impression management strategy selection for failed entrepreneurial firms to cope with stigma was discussed. The findings of the theoretical model reveal two paths for the stigma management strategy of failed entrepreneurial firms: “avoidance motivation → defensive strategy of impression management” and “diluted motivation → acquisitive strategy of impression management.” Moreover, in the selection mechanism of strategy, the formation of impression motivation is affected by the stigma type of entrepreneurial failure, the social status of the firm organization, and the degree of stigma threat. In the face of justifiable stigma, the failed entrepreneurial firms form the avoidance motivation and then implement a defensive strategy of impression management. High social status firms adopt an acquisitive strategy of impression management to cope with the negative impact of entrepreneurial failure stigma. As the threat level of entrepreneurial failure stigma increases, the dilution motivation of the failed entrepreneurial firms to stigma becomes stronger, and the firms are more likely to adopt the acquisitive strategy of impression management. The two-path theoretical model provides decision support for failed entrepreneurial firms to formulate stigma management strategies and expands the research scope of entrepreneurial failure stigma.
印象管理策略是应对失败创业公司污名化的重要途径。然而,现有的研究大多只关注单一策略下的印象管理过程。很少有研究对如何使用不同类型的印象管理策略来应对耻辱感提供系统的理论解释。为了填补这一理论空白,本文在印象管理双成分模型的基础上,构建了创业失败污名的印象管理双路径模型。此外,本文还探讨了创业失败企业应对污名化的印象管理策略选择机制。理论模型的研究结果揭示了失败创业企业污名化管理策略的两条路径:“回避动机→印象管理的防御策略”和“稀释动机→印象管理的获取策略”。在策略选择机制中,印象动机的形成受创业失败的污名类型、企业组织的社会地位和污名威胁程度的影响。面对正当的污名,失败的创业企业会形成回避动机,进而实施印象管理的防御策略。高社会地位企业采用印象管理的获取策略来应对创业失败污名的负面影响。随着创业失败污名威胁水平的增加,失败创业企业对污名的稀释动机变得更强,企业更有可能采取印象管理的获取策略。双路径理论模型为创业失败企业制定污名管理策略提供了决策支持,拓展了创业失败污名的研究范围。
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引用次数: 1
DEVELOPMENT AND STANDARDIZATION OF A TOOL TO MEASURE KNOWLEDGE OF LABOUR LAWS AMONG EMPLOYEES 开发和标准化一种工具,以衡量员工对劳动法的了解
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-006
M. M. Sulphey, Awad Ali Alanzi, M. Klepek
Labour legislations provide guidelines to prevent unfair labour practices and organizational injustice. All employment and labour laws propose standards regarding wages, wellbeing, safety, and equitable treatment, which reduces conflicts. However, informational imbalances between employers and employees prevent employees from having adequate knowledge about labour legislation. Consequently, some employers treat employees inconsistently and that could be detrimental to them. A practical solution to this problem is making employees aware of the provisions of labour laws. As an initial step towards this, there is a definite need to assess employees’ awareness regarding labour laws. Nevertheless, there is a lack of a standardized tool to measure the knowledge level of labour legislation, which has impaired empirical examinations. Using randomly collected 346 samples from two different types of industries, the present study constructed and validated a tool to measure labour law knowledge. The study has followed a simple scale development framework consisting of item generation, scale development, and psychometric evaluation. The measurement tool has been developed using exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The final questionnaire consists of 17 items under four factors, exhibited significant reliability and validity. The developed tool is expected to fill the gap in the literature and stimulate further empirical research. The study also examined the difference in the knowledge level based on the demographics of the sample. The results show a significant difference between the knowledge levels based on gender, citizenship, type of industry, and qualifications. Future research directions are proposed at the end of the paper, together with the limitations of this study.
劳工立法提供了防止不公平劳工做法和组织不公正的准则。所有就业和劳动法都提出了有关工资、福利、安全和公平待遇的标准,从而减少了冲突。然而,雇主和雇员之间的信息不平衡使雇员无法充分了解劳工立法。因此,一些雇主对待员工不一致,这可能对他们有害。解决这个问题的一个实际办法是使雇员了解劳动法的规定。作为实现这一目标的第一步,确实需要评估雇员对劳动法的认识。然而,缺乏衡量劳工立法知识水平的标准化工具,这损害了实证检验。本研究随机抽取两类不同行业的346个样本,构建并验证了一个劳动法知识测度工具。本研究遵循一个简单的量表开发框架,包括项目生成、量表开发和心理测量评估。测量工具已开发利用探索性和验证性因素分析。最终问卷共有17个条目,包含4个因素,具有显著的信度和效度。开发的工具有望填补文献的空白,并激发进一步的实证研究。该研究还检查了基于样本人口统计数据的知识水平差异。结果显示,不同性别、国籍、行业类型和学历的知识水平存在显著差异。文章最后提出了未来的研究方向,并指出了本研究的局限性。
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引用次数: 2
THE DEFENSE OF PRICE DISCRIMINATION IN NETWORK AND INFORMATION GOODS MARKETS 网络和信息产品市场价格歧视的抗辩
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-003
Ivan Soukal
It is not uncommon that articles focused on consumer-price interaction in the network and information goods market swiftly condemn price discrimination as an obfuscation, on-purpose price complexity, or market failure. The reason is a general neoclassical rule of an efficient market where prices are set at marginal cost with no price discrimination. However, the matter is more complicated. This review provides authors an overview of why, where, and which type of price discrimination should be viewed by different optics. Goods such as software, cell carrier services, electronic newspapers subscription, electric energy supply, payment accounts, books, copyrighted content streaming, etc, cannot be treated like manufactured goods. The reasons are specific conditions – substantial and/or repeated fixed/sunk cost, economies of scale, and demand heterogeneity. Recognized economist W. J. Baumol described marginal cost set prices under these conditions as an ‘economic suicide’. Reviewed articles showed that firms are forced to adopt price discrimination in order to recover their costs and to serve more consumer segments. Reviewed authors provided facts to support the use of multipart tariffs, dynamic pricing, versioning, bundling, and Ramsey pricing. These conclusions are used for suggestions on how several studies of information and network goods should be modified. Modifications are related mostly to model assumptions and pricing conclusions. I argue that, in the case of information and network goods, there is justified price discrimination. Hence, there is a certain justified level of price complexity that has to be accepted and not taken as automated evidence of inefficiency, market power, and consumer exploitation.
关注网络和信息产品市场中消费者价格相互作用的文章迅速谴责价格歧视是一种混淆,有目的的价格复杂性或市场失灵,这并不罕见。原因是有效市场的一般新古典主义规则,价格设定在边际成本,没有价格歧视。然而,事情要复杂得多。这篇综述为作者提供了一个概述,为什么,在哪里,以及哪种类型的价格歧视应该被不同的光学观察。软件、手机运营商服务、电子报纸订阅、电力供应、支付账户、书籍、版权内容流等商品不能被视为制成品。原因是特定的条件——大量和/或重复的固定/沉没成本、规模经济和需求异质性。知名经济学家鲍莫尔(W. J. Baumol)将这种情况下的边际成本定价描述为“经济自杀”。经过审查的文章表明,公司被迫采取价格歧视,以收回成本并服务于更多的消费者群体。审查的作者提供的事实,以支持使用多部分关税,动态定价,版本控制,捆绑和拉姆齐定价。这些结论被用来建议一些关于信息和网络产品的研究应该如何修改。修改主要与模型假设和定价结论有关。我认为,就信息和网络产品而言,存在合理的价格歧视。因此,有一定程度的合理的价格复杂性必须被接受,而不是被视为效率低下、市场力量和消费者剥削的自动证据。
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引用次数: 0
ADVERTISING STRATEGY ACCORDING TO THE CONCEPT OF THE FCB MODEL IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE VARIOUS GENERATIONS 广告策略根据FCB模型的概念在不同世代的条件下进行
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-012
K. Matušínská, M. Stoklasa
The aims of the paper are: 1) to verify the validity of the traditional theoretical definition of the Foote, Cone & Belding (FCB) model based on the use of representative products concerning the age (generation) and gender of the selected target group in the conditions of the Czech Republic, and 2) to verify the validity of defined advertising strategies in the traditional theoretical conception of the Foote, Cone & Belding (FCB) model with the current level of acceptance and perception of advertising within the defined selected target group according to age (generation) and gender in the conditions of the Czech Republic. To meet both aims, both secondary and primary marketing research was implemented. The theoretical background of the paper is based on knowledge of marketing communication principles in general with emphasis on advertising theories. The greatest attention is focused on the traditional version of the FCB model which is based on a matrix of consumer thinking–feeling and high–low involvement behaviours and proposes four advertising strategies. Primary research data were obtained using a questionnaire, on the online panel of research agency Ipsos, on 1,100 Czech respondents. The methods used are positional maps for the FCB grid and chi-squared with a suitable post-hoc test. The outputs reveal the differences of the theoretical FCB model in comparison with its practical implementation. It is necessary to adapt (extend) the model according to specific conditions and identification features of different Czech generations and genders, then adjust recommendations for advertising strategies. In Czech conditions, the sextant grind should be used. There is a prevalence of representative product placement in quadrants 1 and 3, i.e., rational appeals even for products where this is not expected. The outcomes can be used for the choice of correct advertising strategy, advertising media, and types.
本文的目的是:1)在捷克共和国的条件下,通过使用与所选目标群体的年龄(世代)和性别有关的代表性产品,验证FCB模型的传统理论定义的有效性;2)验证在传统的Foote理论概念中定义的广告策略的有效性。Cone & Belding (FCB)模型,在捷克共和国的条件下,根据年龄(世代)和性别,在选定的目标群体中定义广告的接受和感知水平。为了满足这两个目标,实施了二级和一级市场研究。本文的理论背景是基于营销传播原理的一般知识,重点是广告理论。最受关注的是FCB模型的传统版本,该模型基于消费者思维-感觉和高低参与行为的矩阵,并提出了四种广告策略。主要研究数据是通过调查机构益普索(Ipsos)的在线小组对1100名捷克受访者进行问卷调查获得的。使用的方法是FCB网格的位置图和卡方,并进行适当的事后检验。研究结果揭示了FCB理论模型与实际模型的差异。有必要根据捷克不同世代和性别的具体情况和识别特征对模型进行调整(扩展),然后调整广告策略建议。在捷克的条件下,应该使用六分仪研磨。在象限1和3中,有代表性的产品植入是普遍存在的,也就是说,即使对那些不期望这样做的产品,也有合理的吸引力。研究结果可用于选择正确的广告策略、广告媒体和广告类型。
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引用次数: 1
INTEGRATED APPROACH OF FUZZY MULTI-ATTRIBUTE DECISION MAKING AND DATA MINING FOR CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION 模糊多属性决策与数据挖掘相结合的客户细分方法
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-011
Manidatta Ray, Mamata Ray, K. Muduli, A. Banaitis, Anil Kumar
This research work focuses on integrating the multi attribute decision making with data mining in a fuzzy decision environment for customer relationship management. The main objective is to analyse the relation between multi attribute decision making and data mining considering a complex problem of ordering customers segments, which is based on four criteria of customer’s life time value, viz. length (L), recency (R), frequency (F) and monetary value (M). The proposed integrated approach involves fuzzy C-means (FCM) cluster analysis as data mining tool. The experiment conducted using MATLAB 12.0 for identifying eight clusters of customers. The two multi attribute decision making tools i.e., fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) are used for ranking these identified clusters. The applicability of the integrated decision making technique is also demonstrated in this paper considering the case of Indian retail sector. This research collected responses from nine experts from Indian retail industry regarding their perception of relative importance of four criteria of customer life value and evaluated weights of each criterion using fuzzy AHP. Transaction data of 18 months of the case retail store was analysed to segment 1,600 customers into eight clusters using fuzzy c-means clustering analysis technique. Finally, these eight clusters were ranked using fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution). The findings of this research could be helpful for firms in identifying the more valuable customers for them and allocate more resources to satisfy them. The findings will be also helpful in developing different loyalty program strategies for customers of different clusters.
本研究的重点是将模糊决策环境下的多属性决策与数据挖掘相结合,用于客户关系管理。基于顾客生命时间价值的四个标准,即长度(L)、频度(R)、频度(F)和货币价值(M),分析了多属性决策与数据挖掘之间的关系。提出的综合方法采用模糊c均值(FCM)聚类分析作为数据挖掘工具。实验采用MATLAB 12.0对8类客户进行识别。利用模糊层次分析法(AHP)和模糊TOPSIS (Order Preference Technique of Similarity to Ideal Solution)两种多属性决策工具对已识别的聚类进行排序。本文还以印度零售业为例,论证了综合决策技术的适用性。本研究收集了来自印度零售业的九位专家对客户生命价值四个标准的相对重要性的看法,并使用模糊层次分析法评估了每个标准的权重。对案例零售商店18个月的交易数据进行分析,采用模糊c均值聚类分析技术将1600名顾客划分为8类。最后,利用模糊TOPSIS (Order Preference Technique for Similarity to Ideal Solution)对这8个聚类进行排序。本研究的结果可以帮助企业识别更有价值的客户,并分配更多的资源来满足他们。研究结果也将有助于为不同集群的客户制定不同的忠诚度计划策略。
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引用次数: 1
STOCK PRICE PREDICTION USING MARKOV CHAINS ANALYSIS WITH VARYING STATE SPACE ON DATA FROM THE CZECH REPUBLIC 基于变状态空间马尔可夫链分析的捷克股票价格预测
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.15240/tul/001/2021-4-009
M. Svoboda, P. Říhová
The article describes empirical research that deals with short-term stock price prediction. The aim of this study is to use this prediction to create successful business models. A business model that outperforms the stock market, represented by the Buy and Hold strategy, is considered to be successful. A stochastic model based on Markov chains analysis with varying state space is used for short-term stock price prediction. The varying state spate is defined based on multiples of the moving standard deviation. A total of 80 state space models were calculated for the moving standard deviation with 5-step lengths from 10 to 30 in combination with the standard deviation multiples from 0.5 to 2.0 with the step of 0.1. The efficiency of the business models was verified for 3 long-term, liquid stocks of the Czech stock market, namely the stocks of KB, CEZ, and O2 within a 14-year period – from the beginning of 2006 to the end of 2019. Business models perform best when they use a state space defined on the length of a moving standard deviation between 15 and 30 in combination with multiples of the standard deviation between 1.1 and 1.2. Business models based on these parameters outperform the passive Buy and Hold strategy. In fact, they outperform the Buy and Hold strategy for both the entire period under review and the yielded five-year periods (including transaction fees). The only exception is the five-year periods covering 2015 for O2 stocks. After the end of the uncertainty period caused by unclear intentions of the new majority stockholder, the stock price rose sharply. These results are in conflict with the efficient markets theory and suggest that in the period under review, the Czech stock market was not effective in any form.
本文描述了短期股票价格预测的实证研究。本研究的目的是利用这种预测来创建成功的商业模式。以“买入并持有”策略为代表的商业模式表现优于股票市场,被认为是成功的。采用一种基于变状态空间马尔可夫链分析的随机模型进行短期股票价格预测。根据移动标准差的倍数来定义变化状态的频带。结合步长为0.1的标准差倍数0.5 ~ 2.0,计算出5步长为10 ~ 30的移动标准差共80个状态空间模型。以捷克股票市场上3只长期、流动性强的股票,即KB、CEZ和O2的股票,在2006年初至2019年底的14年时间内,验证了商业模型的有效性。当业务模型使用根据15到30之间的移动标准偏差长度以及1.1到1.2之间的标准偏差倍数定义的状态空间时,它们的表现最好。基于这些参数的商业模式优于被动的买入并持有策略。事实上,它们在整个评估期间和产生的五年期间(包括交易费用)的表现都优于“买入并持有”策略。唯一的例外是O2股票涵盖2015年的五年期限。在新大股东意图不明导致的不确定期结束后,股价大幅上涨。这些结果与有效市场理论相冲突,并表明在本报告所述期间,捷克股票市场在任何形式上都不有效。
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引用次数: 0
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E & M Ekonomie a Management
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