Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006483
Elodie Mania, Arsène Rieber, Thi Anh-Dao Tran
ABSTRACT Viet Nam is following the successive waves of rapid industrialisation in Asia by implementing an export-oriented growth strategy. The country is strongly integrated into global value chains. However, a key concern is whether such trade-led growth is sustainable in the long run and resilient to global shocks. Drawing on a multi-country balance-of-payments-constrained growth model, our objective in the present paper is threefold. Firstly, we examine Viet Nam’s growth performance over the past 30 years of transition and integration. More specifically, we measure the respective contribution of partner areas to its external constraint. Secondly, we analyse how and through which transmission channels the changing geography of international trade has impacted the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate before and after Viet Nam joined the WTO in 2007. A decomposition of the external constraint into different factors from different sources is proposed in order to assess the outcomes of WTO accession. Lastly, we assess the country’s ability to face the current Covid-19 pandemic. Given its deep integration into the global economy, the geography of trade relations is critical in determining Viet Nam’s vulnerability. This corroborates recent development studies that make a case for partner diversification and growth re-orientation in order to build macro resilience.
{"title":"Two sides of the same coin? Viet Nam’s macro resilience under trade-led growth","authors":"Elodie Mania, Arsène Rieber, Thi Anh-Dao Tran","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006483","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006483","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Viet Nam is following the successive waves of rapid industrialisation in Asia by implementing an export-oriented growth strategy. The country is strongly integrated into global value chains. However, a key concern is whether such trade-led growth is sustainable in the long run and resilient to global shocks. Drawing on a multi-country balance-of-payments-constrained growth model, our objective in the present paper is threefold. Firstly, we examine Viet Nam’s growth performance over the past 30 years of transition and integration. More specifically, we measure the respective contribution of partner areas to its external constraint. Secondly, we analyse how and through which transmission channels the changing geography of international trade has impacted the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate before and after Viet Nam joined the WTO in 2007. A decomposition of the external constraint into different factors from different sources is proposed in order to assess the outcomes of WTO accession. Lastly, we assess the country’s ability to face the current Covid-19 pandemic. Given its deep integration into the global economy, the geography of trade relations is critical in determining Viet Nam’s vulnerability. This corroborates recent development studies that make a case for partner diversification and growth re-orientation in order to build macro resilience.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"445 - 477"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49291664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006492
Kiril Simeonovski, Filip Fidanoski, Mihail Petkovski, B. Sergi
ABSTRACT This paper examines government debt’s effect on economic growth on a sample of 16 countries from Central and Southeast Europe for the period 2009–2018 period. We develop a non-linear dynamic panel-regression model. The findings point out to concavity of the growth function with respect to government debt. The estimates from the baseline model determine the debt threshold at the level of 77.3% of GDP, while the debt threshold ranges from 69.4 to 74.1% of GDP when the primary and overall budget balances are included as covariates. The GMM estimates that we make to deal with potential endogeneity determine the debt threshold at the level of 78.9% of GDP when there are no covariates, while the debt threshold ranges from 75.8 to 80.7% of GDP when the gross fixed capital formation and employment are added as covariates.
{"title":"Debt-growth link after an economic crisis: The case of Central and Southeast Europe","authors":"Kiril Simeonovski, Filip Fidanoski, Mihail Petkovski, B. Sergi","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006492","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines government debt’s effect on economic growth on a sample of 16 countries from Central and Southeast Europe for the period 2009–2018 period. We develop a non-linear dynamic panel-regression model. The findings point out to concavity of the growth function with respect to government debt. The estimates from the baseline model determine the debt threshold at the level of 77.3% of GDP, while the debt threshold ranges from 69.4 to 74.1% of GDP when the primary and overall budget balances are included as covariates. The GMM estimates that we make to deal with potential endogeneity determine the debt threshold at the level of 78.9% of GDP when there are no covariates, while the debt threshold ranges from 75.8 to 80.7% of GDP when the gross fixed capital formation and employment are added as covariates.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"409 - 422"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49203090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006493
Thi Bich Hanh Tran, H. A. La
ABSTRACT The cynicism about government has induced administration reforms in both developed and transitional countries. However, the reform outcomes are not similar across countries and depend on the administrative context. In this paper, we employ the cultural-based administration approach to investigate the role of trust in citizen participation and the linking between participation and transparency in Vietnam. Using aggregated data at the district level from the Public Administration Performance Index in Vietnam in 2018–19 and considering the two-way association issue, we find that transparency is not always indicative of participation and trust is shown to be an important determinant of public participation. Furthermore, in addition to normative factors such as education levels and the proportion of rural citizens, trust plays a significant role in explaining the inverse relationship between participation and transparency. Our results contribute one more empirical evidence to the scarce literature that embeds the administration culture analysing administrative reform outcomes in transitional countries.
{"title":"Participation, transparency and trust in local governance in transitional countries: the case of Vietnam","authors":"Thi Bich Hanh Tran, H. A. La","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006493","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The cynicism about government has induced administration reforms in both developed and transitional countries. However, the reform outcomes are not similar across countries and depend on the administrative context. In this paper, we employ the cultural-based administration approach to investigate the role of trust in citizen participation and the linking between participation and transparency in Vietnam. Using aggregated data at the district level from the Public Administration Performance Index in Vietnam in 2018–19 and considering the two-way association issue, we find that transparency is not always indicative of participation and trust is shown to be an important determinant of public participation. Furthermore, in addition to normative factors such as education levels and the proportion of rural citizens, trust plays a significant role in explaining the inverse relationship between participation and transparency. Our results contribute one more empirical evidence to the scarce literature that embeds the administration culture analysing administrative reform outcomes in transitional countries.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"478 - 498"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41629383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006496
Meng Li, Li Zhang
ABSTRACT While the problem of elderly poverty in China has been addressed in many studies, few systematically examine the capacity of public pension benefits to reduce poverty. To fill the research gap, this paper aims to understand better the effect of China’s public pensions on poverty relief. The paper shows that, while the majority of Chinese people have been covered by public pensions, the pension that pertains to those outside the formal labour market does not effectively prevent substantial numbers of pensioners from poverty because of pension inadequacy. The phenomenon of pensioner poverty suggests that, to minimise poverty in old-age, as important as expanding pension coverage is guaranteeing pension adequacy, particularly for the informal workforce. China’s experience for tackling elderly poverty through public pensions may provide insights for other countries considering the expansion of pension coverage.
{"title":"Effects of public pensions on elderly poverty: insights from an ageing China","authors":"Meng Li, Li Zhang","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006496","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT While the problem of elderly poverty in China has been addressed in many studies, few systematically examine the capacity of public pension benefits to reduce poverty. To fill the research gap, this paper aims to understand better the effect of China’s public pensions on poverty relief. The paper shows that, while the majority of Chinese people have been covered by public pensions, the pension that pertains to those outside the formal labour market does not effectively prevent substantial numbers of pensioners from poverty because of pension inadequacy. The phenomenon of pensioner poverty suggests that, to minimise poverty in old-age, as important as expanding pension coverage is guaranteeing pension adequacy, particularly for the informal workforce. China’s experience for tackling elderly poverty through public pensions may provide insights for other countries considering the expansion of pension coverage.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"520 - 542"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43426112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-26DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006497
Ruohan Wu
ABSTRACT We acquired firm-level data from 27 post-communist economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia during 2002–08, and we estimated financial constraints’ longitudinal impacts on firms’ innovating activities. Overall, we found financial constraints to significantly impede firms’ innovation input and output, as we had expected. Through further studies, we also found the impacts of financial constraints to be contingent on multiple factors, such as an overall economy’s development level and firms’ exporting statuses. After grouping firms based on their countries’ income levels, we found financial constraints to significantly reduce innovations in developing countries, but not in developed countries. Meanwhile, we found financial constraints to significantly impede innovations in non-exporting firms, but not in exporting firms. On an extended timeline, financial constraints still significantly affect firms’ long-term innovation outputs, but not inputs.
{"title":"Financial constraints and firms’ innovation activities in post-communist economies","authors":"Ruohan Wu","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006497","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We acquired firm-level data from 27 post-communist economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia during 2002–08, and we estimated financial constraints’ longitudinal impacts on firms’ innovating activities. Overall, we found financial constraints to significantly impede firms’ innovation input and output, as we had expected. Through further studies, we also found the impacts of financial constraints to be contingent on multiple factors, such as an overall economy’s development level and firms’ exporting statuses. After grouping firms based on their countries’ income levels, we found financial constraints to significantly reduce innovations in developing countries, but not in developed countries. Meanwhile, we found financial constraints to significantly impede innovations in non-exporting firms, but not in exporting firms. On an extended timeline, financial constraints still significantly affect firms’ long-term innovation outputs, but not inputs.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"807 - 834"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43303097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-05DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006491
Hazwan Haini, Pang Wei Loon
ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of government spending on the finance-growth nexus in 27 post-communist economies from 1995 to 2017 using dynamic panel estimators. Many transitional economies have attempted to reduce the influence of government intervention during their early transitional period while reforming their respective financial sectors. The findings show that overall financial development is positive to growth, while government spending has a negative impact on growth. More importantly, the marginal effects of financial development are positive to growth at low levels of government spending. In contrast, at high levels of government spending, financial development has a negative relationship to growth. Focusing on different aspects of financial development, the findings show that financial access and efficiency are more effective at stimulating growth compared to financial depth. Post-communist economies should ensure that government spending should not crowd out the financial sector, and promote financial efficiency and accessibility.
{"title":"Examining the impact of government spending on the finance-growth nexus: evidence from post-communist economies","authors":"Hazwan Haini, Pang Wei Loon","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006491","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of government spending on the finance-growth nexus in 27 post-communist economies from 1995 to 2017 using dynamic panel estimators. Many transitional economies have attempted to reduce the influence of government intervention during their early transitional period while reforming their respective financial sectors. The findings show that overall financial development is positive to growth, while government spending has a negative impact on growth. More importantly, the marginal effects of financial development are positive to growth at low levels of government spending. In contrast, at high levels of government spending, financial development has a negative relationship to growth. Focusing on different aspects of financial development, the findings show that financial access and efficiency are more effective at stimulating growth compared to financial depth. Post-communist economies should ensure that government spending should not crowd out the financial sector, and promote financial efficiency and accessibility.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"756 - 778"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45955263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-29DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2006498
P. Ferreira, A. Dionísio, Dora Almeida, D. Quintino, Faheem Aslam
ABSTRACT This research work aims to understand the dynamics of influence among CEEC stock market indices and between these and the US, German, UK and Chinese indices. Through a nonlinear approach, based on transfer entropy, we find strongly influential relationships between some CEEC indices and the influencing nature of the US index stands out. In addition to the complexity of causality relationships, which has a limited compatibility with purely linear analyses, we also perceive an intensification in the leadership of the big 4 from the first quarter of 2020, which suggests that the pandemic crisis may be a factor for the intensification of influence from Chinese and US indices.
{"title":"A new vision about the influence of major stock markets in CEEC indices: a bidirectional dynamic analysis using transfer entropy","authors":"P. Ferreira, A. Dionísio, Dora Almeida, D. Quintino, Faheem Aslam","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2006498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2006498","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This research work aims to understand the dynamics of influence among CEEC stock market indices and between these and the US, German, UK and Chinese indices. Through a nonlinear approach, based on transfer entropy, we find strongly influential relationships between some CEEC indices and the influencing nature of the US index stands out. In addition to the complexity of causality relationships, which has a limited compatibility with purely linear analyses, we also perceive an intensification in the leadership of the big 4 from the first quarter of 2020, which suggests that the pandemic crisis may be a factor for the intensification of influence from Chinese and US indices.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"267 - 282"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46480622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-04DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.2010177
G. Kolodko
ABSTRACT Janos Kornai was the most outstanding economist from the socialist and post-socialist region in the last 50 years. He was a world-renowned scholar who left behind an immense legacy of works published in over 20 languages. His theory of systemic disequilibrium in a centrally planned economy, the concept of hard and soft budget constraints, and economic shortage were of revolutionary importance to the scientific interpretation of the processes of production, distribution and capital accumulation in state socialist economies. Also of note is the author’s work on political economy of socialism, which he taught at the Harvard University. When analysing the socialist system, Kornai essentially contented himself with a descriptive approach, whereas in works published after 1989 he focused his attention on normative economics, suggesting directions of structural reform, institution-building, and economic policy in post-socialist transition. Also of great importance is Kornai’s last book comparing the disequilibrium characterised by shortage in socialism with the disequilibrium typical of the surplus in capitalism. This article analyses the evolution of this outstanding economist’s theoretical thought and its impact on real economic processes.
{"title":"Janos Kornai and his memorable work","authors":"G. Kolodko","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.2010177","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.2010177","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Janos Kornai was the most outstanding economist from the socialist and post-socialist region in the last 50 years. He was a world-renowned scholar who left behind an immense legacy of works published in over 20 languages. His theory of systemic disequilibrium in a centrally planned economy, the concept of hard and soft budget constraints, and economic shortage were of revolutionary importance to the scientific interpretation of the processes of production, distribution and capital accumulation in state socialist economies. Also of note is the author’s work on political economy of socialism, which he taught at the Harvard University. When analysing the socialist system, Kornai essentially contented himself with a descriptive approach, whereas in works published after 1989 he focused his attention on normative economics, suggesting directions of structural reform, institution-building, and economic policy in post-socialist transition. Also of great importance is Kornai’s last book comparing the disequilibrium characterised by shortage in socialism with the disequilibrium typical of the surplus in capitalism. This article analyses the evolution of this outstanding economist’s theoretical thought and its impact on real economic processes.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"33 1","pages":"1056 - 1064"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47271931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-23DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2021.1965359
K. Djalilov, C. Hartwell
ABSTRACT Financial institutions have embraced the idea of corporate social responsibility (CSR) over the past decade, particularly in the banking sector, even as they have faced challenges in their core business model and an uncertain economic environment. Has the addition of CSR helped banks in their effort to become more stable via diversification, or has it squandered resources which could be utilised elsewhere? Using a sample of 319 commercial banks from 21 transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 2002 to 2014, we find that there is a heterogeneous effect of CSR on bank stability, with total commitment to CSR contributing to the stability the most. Environmental capabilities, on the other hand, appear to influence stability only for those firms which are already the highest performing. We conjecture that, for financial sector firms in a transition environment, CSR is a further commitment for firms which have attained a certain level of stability but can be destabilising for weaker banks.
{"title":"Do social and environmental capabilities improve bank stability? Evidence from transition countries","authors":"K. Djalilov, C. Hartwell","doi":"10.1080/14631377.2021.1965359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.1965359","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Financial institutions have embraced the idea of corporate social responsibility (CSR) over the past decade, particularly in the banking sector, even as they have faced challenges in their core business model and an uncertain economic environment. Has the addition of CSR helped banks in their effort to become more stable via diversification, or has it squandered resources which could be utilised elsewhere? Using a sample of 319 commercial banks from 21 transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 2002 to 2014, we find that there is a heterogeneous effect of CSR on bank stability, with total commitment to CSR contributing to the stability the most. Environmental capabilities, on the other hand, appear to influence stability only for those firms which are already the highest performing. We conjecture that, for financial sector firms in a transition environment, CSR is a further commitment for firms which have attained a certain level of stability but can be destabilising for weaker banks.","PeriodicalId":46517,"journal":{"name":"Post-Communist Economies","volume":"34 1","pages":"624 - 646"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44598653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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