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Analyzing arguments in executive veto messages 分析行政否决信息中的论点
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12871
Joshua Koss, Ian Ostrander, J. Sievert
The executive veto is one of the most important instruments of presidential power within the legislative arena. Because of constitutional requirements, every regular veto and many pocket vetoes are accompanied by a short letter to Congress from the president describing—often in detail—the reasoning behind the decision to veto. As such, these messages form a unique window into interbranch and partisan conflict over time. While analyses have been conducted on the broad patterns of veto use, questions remain concerning presidential motivations for vetoing as well as how these motivations have evolved over time along with changing political institutions. Using a data set of approximately 2000 unique veto messages from the first in 1792 to the last of President Trump's vetoes in 2021, we examine the content of veto messages to uncover the number and kind of arguments used by presidents when addressing Congress over vetoed legislation. Our analysis uncovers significant variation, with the evolution of arguments within veto messages mirroring broader political trends.
行政否决权是总统在立法领域最重要的权力工具之一。由于宪法要求,每一次常规否决和许多袖珍否决都会附有总统致国会的一封简短信函,其中往往详细描述了否决决定背后的理由。因此,这些信函构成了一个独特的窗口,让人们可以了解随着时间推移的跨部门冲突和党派冲突。虽然已经对使用否决权的广泛模式进行了分析,但有关总统使用否决权的动机以及这些动机如何随着时间的推移和政治体制的变化而演变的问题仍然存在。我们利用从 1792 年第一份否决提案到 2021 年特朗普总统最后一份否决提案的约 2000 份独特的否决提案数据集,研究了否决提案的内容,以揭示总统就否决立法向国会发表讲话时所使用的论据的数量和种类。我们的分析发现了巨大的差异,否决信息中论据的演变反映了更广泛的政治趋势。
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引用次数: 0
The tone of the president's immigration rhetoric 总统移民言论的基调
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12868
Matthew Eshbaugh‐Soha, Stephanie Wise
We examine the tone of the president's immigration policy speeches as a function of the political context, policy characteristics, and individual presidents in two ways. First, we describe the tone of the president's immigration rhetoric using DICTION software and its five global categories of tone. Second, we hypothesize that commonality and optimism, two categories of tone expressive of immigration policy, will co‐vary by political context, policy characteristics of immigration, and a president's approach to rhetoric. To test our expectations, we collected presidential mentions of immigration since 1953 from the Public Papers of the Presidents. Key variables, like the president's honeymoon and the post‐9/11 era, increase a president's commonality tone, and the president's approval ratings encourage greater optimism. Individual presidents also shape presidential rhetoric, indicating the importance of presidential style to immigration tone, especially for optimism. We conclude with implications of our work for the systematic study of presidential tone and the prospects for comprehensive immigration reform.
我们从两个方面研究了总统移民政策演讲的基调与政治背景、政策特点和总统个人的关系。首先,我们使用 DICTION 软件及其五个全球语调类别来描述总统移民言论的语调。其次,我们假设,共同性和乐观主义这两类表达移民政策的基调将因政治背景、移民政策特点和总统的修辞方法而共同变化。为了验证我们的预期,我们从《总统公开文件》(Public Papers of the Presidents)中收集了自 1953 年以来总统提及移民的内容。总统的蜜月期和后 9/11 时代等关键变量增加了总统的共同性基调,而总统的支持率则鼓励了更大的乐观主义。总统个人也会影响总统的言论,这表明总统风格对移民语调的重要性,尤其是对乐观主义而言。最后,我们总结了我们的工作对系统研究总统基调和全面移民改革前景的意义。
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引用次数: 0
The president and the vice president: Different types of partnerships for a unique power couple 总统和副总统为一对独特的权力伴侣建立不同类型的伙伴关系
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12867
Karine Prémont
As the vice presidency evolves over time, the way we assess vice presidents' activities and influence also needs to change. We must consider the type of partnership that the president and the vice president develop together, which determines not only the latter's involvement in the decision‐making process but also the scope of his or her influence. Since partnerships can change from one term to another and according to the issues, they can help explain the fluctuations of vice presidents' influence within and between administrations, but they also enhance our comprehension of the evolution of executive power by emphasizing the dynamics of the connection between its principal components—the presidency and the vice presidency. This article introduces a new typology accounting for four different partnerships: communication, coordination, cooperation, and collaboration. This typology distinguishes between weak and strong partnerships, depending on the level of influence they allow the vice presidents to exert. Partnerships are defined by a series of criteria related to the selection of the running mate, the tasks of the vice president within the administration, and the quality of his or her relationship with the president.
随着副总统职位的不断演变,我们评估副总统活动和影响力的方式也需要改变。我们必须考虑总统和副总统共同发展的伙伴关系类型,这不仅决定了后者在决策过程中的参与程度,也决定了其影响力的范围。由于伙伴关系会随着任期和议题的变化而变化,它们有助于解释副总统在政府内部和政府之间影响力的波动,同时也通过强调行政权力的主要组成部分--总统和副总统--之间联系的动态变化,加深了我们对行政权力演变的理解。本文介绍了一种新的类型学,包括四种不同的伙伴关系:沟通、协调、合作和协作。这种类型学根据副总统施加影响的程度,将伙伴关系区分为弱伙伴关系和强伙伴关系。伙伴关系由一系列标准界定,这些标准涉及竞选伙伴的选择、副总统在政府中的任务以及他或她与总统关系的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Presidential candidates nobody wants? 总统候选人无人问津?
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-02 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12866
Zoltán Fazekas, Peter K. Hatemi
In a nationally representative study, we explore the public's views of the 2016 presidential nominees. Current measures generally focus on approval of given candidates with closed‐ended questions, but much can be learned by soliciting the public's unconstrained candidate preferences—not only in the direction of how they feel, but the depth of their views and who they really want to see in office. Employing open‐ended questions, we find that more than 75% of the voting public preferred an option other than what was offered. Even when constraining choices to politicians, the Democratic and Republican nominees were not preferred by the majority of the public, and this held true when restricting the analyses to partisans only. We further asked voters to express, in their own words, what they thought of the two candidates for president. The majority of the public described both candidates in negative terms. They spoke with deep disdain for the opposition's candidate, as well as their own party's candidate. The results add support to the view that US primary elections are failing to produce candidates who represent the public's interests and signal the potential for further instability in US government.
在一项具有全国代表性的研究中,我们探讨了公众对2016年总统候选人的看法。目前的措施通常侧重于对给定候选人的认可,并提出封闭式的问题,但通过征求公众不受约束的候选人偏好,可以了解到很多信息——不仅是他们的感受,还有他们的观点的深度,以及他们真正希望看到谁执政。采用开放式问题,我们发现超过75%的投票公众更喜欢其他选项而不是提供的选项。即使把选择限制在政治家身上,民主党和共和党的候选人也不会受到大多数公众的青睐,而当把分析限制在党派人士身上时,情况也是如此。我们进一步要求选民用他们自己的话来表达他们对两位总统候选人的看法。大多数公众对两位候选人都持负面看法。他们对反对党的候选人以及本党的候选人都表示了深深的蔑视。这一结果进一步支持了这样一种观点,即美国初选未能产生代表公众利益的候选人,并表明美国政府可能进一步不稳定。
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引用次数: 0
What causes threats directed at the president? 是什么导致了对总统的威胁?
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12865
Lucas J. Lothamer, Brandon Rottinghaus
What puts the president in the crosshairs of threats? By examining a new data set of threats made against the president in the incoming White House mail from 1961 to 1965, this study argues that domestic and international events, especially politically controversial issues, serve as a provocation for political threats. We find that outside civil rights events more than approval or economic conditions drive threats to the White House. Although limited in time span, the implications of this study suggest that specific events, some of which the White House has little control over, spur increased threats made against the president.
是什么让总统受到威胁?通过研究 1961 年至 1965 年白宫邮件中针对总统威胁的新数据集,本研究认为,国内和国际事件,尤其是政治上有争议的问题,是政治威胁的诱因。我们发现,外部民权事件比批准或经济状况更能推动对白宫的威胁。虽然时间跨度有限,但本研究的意义表明,一些白宫几乎无法控制的具体事件刺激了对总统的威胁增加。
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引用次数: 0
The administrative politics of unilateral action: Measuring delegation and discretion in the executive branch 单方面行动的行政政治:衡量行政部门的授权和自由裁量权
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12862
Annie Benn
Political scientists typically view unilateral action as the president “going it alone” in opposition to Congress. However, there is increasing recognition that, while such action may be unilateral with respect to Congress, its implementation relies on the cooperation of administrative agencies. In this article, unilateral action is considered an act of administrative delegation: in issuing a unilateral directive, a president is both authorizing an agency to act and indicating a discretionary window for such action. The article introduces the Administrative Delegation Dataset, which provides delegation and discretion scores for 1,641 presidential unilateral directives issued between 1936 and 2021. The scores are based on novel measures developed for the executive‐branch context, and the reliability and validity of the measures are discussed. I then use the dataset to show that the extent of delegation and discretion granted to administrative agents has shifted across modalities (executive orders, memoranda, proclamations) over time: the proportion of high‐scoring executive orders has been increasing, but that increase is offset by a corresponding decrease in high‐scoring memos. Additionally, I find that presidents use less administrative delegation in foreign policy than in domestic policy, which is consistent with existing literature on centralization of executive‐branch policymaking.
政治学家通常将单边行动视为总统与国会对立的 "单干"。然而,越来越多的人认识到,虽然这种行动对国会而言可能是单边的,但其实施有赖于行政机构的合作。在本文中,单边行动被视为一种行政授权行为:在发布单边指令时,总统既授权一个机构采取行动,又指明了该行动的自由裁量窗口。文章介绍了行政授权数据集,该数据集为 1936 年至 2021 年间发布的 1641 项总统单边指令提供了授权和自由裁量权评分。这些分值基于为行政分支背景开发的新测量方法,并讨论了测量方法的可靠性和有效性。然后,我利用数据集表明,随着时间的推移,赋予行政人员的授权和自由裁量权的程度在不同方式(行政命令、备忘录、公告)之间发生了变化:高分行政命令的比例一直在增加,但这一增加被高分备忘录的相应减少所抵消。此外,我发现总统在外交政策中使用的行政授权少于在国内政策中使用的行政授权,这与有关行政部门决策集中化的现有文献相一致。
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引用次数: 0
Presidential hawkishness, domestic popularity, and diplomatic normalization 总统鹰派、国内支持率和外交正常化
IF 0.8 4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12863
James D. Kim
When does the United States normalize its diplomatic relations with its adversaries? This article introduces a theory of diplomatic normalization, focusing on the interaction between the hawkishness of presidents and their domestic popularity. I argue that dovish presidents are more likely to pursue normalization when their domestic approval ratings plummet, as this makes them shift their priorities toward policies they find themselves more comfortable and confident handling. Doves are less likely to pursue normalization when they enjoy high popularity, so as not to jeopardize favorable public support. In contrast, hawkish presidents typically do not support normalization, regardless of their domestic standing, as it does not align with their top policy priorities. The exception arises in the rare instance of a president with an exceptionally high degree of hawkishness who is able to pursue reconciliation without losing his support. I test my theoretical expectations using data on U.S. presidents' latent hawkishness and their diplomatic normalization decisions from 1950 to 2005. The empirical evidence supports all hypotheses, underscoring the importance of understanding the interaction between a leader's personal attributes and the domestic political climate when studying foreign policy decisions.
美国何时与对手实现外交关系正常化?本文介绍了外交正常化理论,重点关注总统的鹰派倾向与其国内支持率之间的相互作用。我认为,当鸽派总统的国内支持率急剧下降时,他们更有可能追求正常化,因为这使他们将优先事项转向他们认为自己在处理政策时更得心应手、更有信心的政策。当鸽派总统享有很高的支持率时,他们不太可能推行正常化,以免危及有利的公众支持。相比之下,鹰派总统无论在国内的地位如何,通常都不会支持正常化,因为这与他们的首要政策不一致。例外情况是,鹰派程度特别高的总统能够在不失去支持的情况下寻求和解。我使用 1950 年至 2005 年美国总统的潜在鹰派程度及其外交正常化决策的数据来检验我的理论预期。实证证据支持了所有假设,强调了在研究外交政策决策时理解领导人个人特质与国内政治气候之间相互作用的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Partisanship, Trump favorability, and changes in support for trade 党派关系、对特朗普的好感度以及对贸易支持的变化
4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12861
Ceren Keser, James C. Garand, Ping Xu, Joseph Essig
Abstract Why has the relationship between partisan identification and Americans' trade attitudes shifted in recent years? We suggest that recent shifts in trade attitudes among partisans are driven by Donald Trump, who staked out a position on trade that is at odds with the position on trade traditionally held by Republicans. Using panel data from the Voter Study Group (VSG) surveys from 2011, 2016, and 2017, we conduct cross‐sectional analyses showing that the relationship between partisanship and trade attitudes has shifted dramatically from 2011 to 2016/2017; in 2011, Republicans were significantly more supportive of expanded trade, but by 2016/2017 the relationship had reversed, with Democrats significantly more supportive of trade. We link changes over time in trade attitudes with how Americans evaluate Trump: individuals with favorable attitudes toward Donald Trump are significantly more likely to shift their attitudes in an antitrade direction from 2011 to 2016. Because so many more Republicans have favorable attitudes toward Trump, the aggregate effect of Trump favorability is to shift Republicans as a group to be less favorable toward trade than Democrats. We suggest that Donald Trump has had a transformative effect on Americans' trade attitudes, with previous supporters (opponents) of expanded trade now expressing opposing (supporting) attitudes.
近年来,党派认同与美国人贸易态度之间的关系为何发生了变化?我们认为,最近党派之间贸易态度的转变是由唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)推动的,他在贸易问题上的立场与共和党人传统上的贸易立场不一致。利用2011年、2016年和2017年选民研究小组(VSG)调查的小组数据,我们进行了横断面分析,结果显示,从2011年到2016/2017年,党派关系与贸易态度之间的关系发生了巨大变化;2011年,共和党人明显更支持扩大贸易,但到2016/2017年,这种关系发生了逆转,民主党人明显更支持贸易。我们将贸易态度随时间的变化与美国人对特朗普的评价联系起来:从2011年到2016年,对唐纳德·特朗普持好感态度的人更有可能将态度转向反贸易方向。因为有这么多共和党人对特朗普有好感,所以对特朗普的好感的总体效应是,共和党人作为一个群体,对贸易的好感程度不如民主党人。我们认为,唐纳德·特朗普对美国人的贸易态度产生了变革性的影响,以前支持(反对)扩大贸易的人现在表达了反对(支持)的态度。
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引用次数: 0
Gender and moral language on the presidential campaign trail 总统竞选过程中的性别和道德语言
4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-22 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12856
David P. Redlawsk, Jiwon Nam, Annemarie S. Walter
Abstract Political candidates choose to highlight morality in their campaign speeches in various ways. In particular, we expect presidential candidates to highlight moral principles in introducing themselves to voters early in the campaign. However, usage may not be the same across candidates. Existing research suggests that, in general, women focus on different moral values than men. The question is whether such findings in the mass public translate into rhetorical differences between men and women presidential candidates. We know little about whether such gender differences exist, and if so, how they might influence voters. We examine a unique data set of presidential candidate speeches given in Iowa in the 2016 and 2020 nomination campaigns, developing and testing hypotheses about gender, the use of moral language, and its effects on vote outcomes. Using automated text analysis, we find that all else equal, while women candidates do not use more moral language overall, they do emphasize care and fairness more than men, and in doing so, they may be disadvantaging themselves, especially when using language related to fairness.
政治候选人在竞选演说中以各种方式强调道德。特别是,我们期待总统候选人在竞选初期向选民介绍自己时强调道德原则。然而,不同候选人的用法可能不一样。现有的研究表明,一般来说,女性关注的道德价值观与男性不同。问题是,这些在公众中的发现是否会转化为男女总统候选人在言辞上的差异。我们对这种性别差异是否存在知之甚少,如果存在,它们将如何影响选民。我们研究了2016年和2020年提名竞选期间爱荷华州总统候选人演讲的独特数据集,开发并测试了关于性别、道德语言的使用及其对投票结果的影响的假设。通过自动文本分析,我们发现在其他条件相同的情况下,虽然女性候选人总体上没有使用更多的道德语言,但她们确实比男性更强调关心和公平,这样做可能会使自己处于不利地位,尤其是在使用与公平相关的语言时。
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引用次数: 0
Lincoln and Native Americans By Michael S.Green, Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press. 2021. pp. 176 《林肯与印第安人》迈克尔·格林著,卡本代尔:南伊利诺伊大学出版社,2021年。176页。
4区 社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/psq.12858
Holly M. Guise
A historian of the 19th-century United States and the Civil War, Michael S. Green continues his scholarship on the American West with a focus on the relationship between President Abraham Lincoln and Native Americans. In a relatively short book, Green elucidates Lincoln's personal background, his politics, and his actions toward Native people in the United States during the Civil War. What Green has produced is a complicated narrative of Lincoln, a historical actor with power as president amidst a war, who attempted to maintain imperfection while acting foremost as a political figure in the nation. This book focuses on Lincoln and his policies toward Native people. Although Green includes some quotes from tribal leaders, he does not devote much attention to Native voices and scholarship in Native studies. Thus, Green's work makes a solid contribution in the historical field but leaves room for it to develop. Structurally, the book is comprised of six chapters in addition to the introduction and conclusion. The chapters are organized chronologically and thematically. The introduction situates this book broadly in the fields of Civil War history, political history, and presidential history. It begins with Lincoln's order of the largest mass execution in US history of 38 Dakota men in 1862. Green compares Lincoln's policies to that of President Andrew Jackson's Indian removal. Chapter 1 identifies the racial project of presuming Native peoples to be “savages” and how this led to failed attempts to convert Indigenous people to Christianity. This chapter also explores Lincoln's family backstory in moving to Illinois, and it identifies books that may have influenced Lincoln's perspective on Black enslavement in the Americas and on Native people. Chapter 2 examines the narrative of the Black Hawk War (1832) as Anglo-Americans seizing Native lands through treaties and removal. Green notes that “new treaties took more Native land, and in a harbinger of the next major removal, relocating Black Hawk's band to modern-day Iowa and Kansas cost more lives than the war did” (p. 17). He identifies Lincoln's relationship to politics and the West envisioned as a space of free laborers where Native Americans lived and where their removal by the government opened white homesteading and railroads. Chapter 3 grapples with Lincoln's treatment of Native Americans and federal Indian policy, including meetings with 12 tribal chiefs. Chapter 4 highlights differences between Lincoln's and Jefferson Davis's approach to Indian territory. Chapter 5 describes the hanging of 38 Dakota men as “America's largest execution ever” (p. 69), while, at the same time, the arguments in the chapter depict Lincoln as navigating a calculus of political decisions, including the rejection of 264 death sentences. Chapter 6 addresses the Sand Creek Massacre (1864) and the Diné (Navajo) Long Walk (1863−1864), and summarizes Lincoln's attitude in not condoning these actions, even if not leading to
Michael S. Green是一位研究19世纪美国和南北战争的历史学家,他继续研究美国西部,重点研究亚伯拉罕·林肯总统和印第安人之间的关系。在这本相对较短的书中,格林阐述了林肯的个人背景、他的政治立场以及他在内战期间对美国原住民的行为。格林的作品对林肯进行了复杂的叙述,他是一位在战争中拥有总统权力的历史演员,他试图在作为国家政治人物的同时保持不完美。这本书的重点是林肯和他对土著人民的政策。虽然格林引用了一些部落领袖的话,但他并没有过多关注原住民的声音和原住民研究的学术。因此,格林的工作在历史领域做出了坚实的贡献,但也留下了发展的空间。在结构上,本书除引言和结语外,共分为六章。这些章节是按时间和主题组织的。引言将这本书广泛地定位于南北战史、政治史和总统史等领域。它始于1862年林肯下令对38名达科他男子执行美国历史上最大规模的集体处决。格林将林肯的政策与安德鲁·杰克逊总统驱逐印第安人的政策进行了比较。第一章确定了假定土著人民是“野蛮人”的种族项目,以及这如何导致土著人民皈依基督教的失败尝试。这一章还探讨了林肯搬到伊利诺斯州的家庭背景故事,并确定了可能影响林肯对美洲黑人奴隶制和土著人民的看法的书籍。第二章考察了黑鹰战争(1832年)中英美人通过条约和迁移夺取土著土地的故事。格林指出,“新的条约占用了更多的土著土地,作为下一个主要迁移的预兆,将黑鹰的乐队迁移到今天的爱荷华州和堪萨斯州所付出的生命比战争所付出的生命还要多”(第17页)。他认为林肯与政治和西部的关系是一个自由劳工的空间,印第安人住在那里,他们被政府驱逐,开辟了白人的家园和铁路。第三章讲述林肯对待印第安人和联邦印第安人的政策,包括与12个部落首领的会面。第四章强调了林肯和杰斐逊·戴维斯在印第安领土问题上的不同。第五章将38名达科他男子的绞刑描述为“美国有史以来最大规模的处决”(第69页),同时,这一章的论点将林肯描述为一个政治决策的计算者,包括拒绝264项死刑判决。第6章讲述了沙河大屠杀(1864)和纳瓦霍人的长步行(1863 - 1864),并总结了林肯不宽恕这些行为的态度,即使没有直接导致这些行为:“当陷入困境的联邦试图向西扩展其帝国和权力时,美国人认为土著人民在当时和未来几十年都是阻碍”(第103页)。林肯和印第安人的照片是深思熟虑的,他们平衡了美国帝国人物和土著领导人的代表。其中一些照片包括索克和梅斯奎基族首领ma - ka - taii - me - shee - kia - kiah(黑鹰)等土著首领,以及国会图书馆提供的一张照片,照片上是白宫一个身份不明的土著首领代表团、切罗基族首领约翰·罗斯(John Ross)以及包括黑水壶在内的夏安族和阿拉帕霍族首领。格林在为《简明林肯图书馆》系列(http://www.siupress.com/series/concise-lincoln-library)撰写这篇整体叙事文章时并非易事。他指出,“对林肯和印第安人的任何考察都揭示了很多应该让他的粉丝们感到不安的东西”(第106页)。事实上,有一些林肯的支持者把他理想化到无视针对达科他人的暴力和种族灭绝行为的程度,达科他人在1862年为了保护他们的土地不受定居者的侵犯而牺牲。然而,格林也补充道,“但是一连串的谴责对林肯是不公平的”(第107页)。在这里,格林试图创造一种平衡,强调林肯与美国原住民领袖和原住民之间的政治关系,在美国向西发展的过程中,殖民者和殖民地的暴力事件不断增加。很明显,林肯在美国帝国的扩张中扮演了重要的角色,在种族和移民殖民等级制度的时代,所有这些都是以内战为背景的。作者声明不存在利益冲突。
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引用次数: 0
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Presidential Studies Quarterly
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