{"title":"Are Presidential Candidates Impervious to Deception Detection? A Test of Voters' Truth‐Default","authors":"David E. Clementson, Tong Xie","doi":"10.1111/psq.12809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12809","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44721234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Who Sponsors the President's Program in the Opposition's House?","authors":"L. Dionne","doi":"10.1111/psq.12807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12807","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45064798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"President Ford, the ASALH, and the Political Origins of Black History Month","authors":"Phil Tomsovic, Thomas L. Preston","doi":"10.1111/psq.12802","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12802","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49064638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Case of Command: The Emancipation Proclamation as a Last Resort","authors":"R. Ellis","doi":"10.1111/psq.12805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12805","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45152745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Living in History*”: Bush, World War II, and the Use of Historical Analogies in the Gulf Crisis","authors":"Rachael Jones","doi":"10.1111/psq.12796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12796","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42477012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Progressive Presidents, New Empire, and the Enduring Frontier Myth","authors":"Jerry W. Jones","doi":"10.1111/psq.12801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12801","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46073886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the notion of a “ bellwether ” location in the electoral political context. Bellwethers are thought to have predictive power because they supposedly signal how the entire electorate will move on election day. We consider how the number of bellwether counties — de fi ned in several ways — has fl uctuated since the 1930s. We also explore the extent to which bellwethers successfully predict future elections. With the proliferation of geographic polarization, few counties can successively and successfully pick the winner of presidential elections. Other bellwether measures fare slightly better or worse, but as Tufte and Sun (1975) found nearly half a century ago, bellwethers today continue to be poor predictors of future performance. and in prospect. While spectacular in their postdictions, these counties are not suf fi ciently barometric or swingometric in their predictions to provide a precise or reliable guide to upcoming elections.
{"title":"Reconsidering Bellwether Locations in U.S. Presidential Elections","authors":"J. Gimpel, Andrew Reeves, S. Trende","doi":"10.1111/psq.12793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12793","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the notion of a “ bellwether ” location in the electoral political context. Bellwethers are thought to have predictive power because they supposedly signal how the entire electorate will move on election day. We consider how the number of bellwether counties — de fi ned in several ways — has fl uctuated since the 1930s. We also explore the extent to which bellwethers successfully predict future elections. With the proliferation of geographic polarization, few counties can successively and successfully pick the winner of presidential elections. Other bellwether measures fare slightly better or worse, but as Tufte and Sun (1975) found nearly half a century ago, bellwethers today continue to be poor predictors of future performance. and in prospect. While spectacular in their postdictions, these counties are not suf fi ciently barometric or swingometric in their predictions to provide a precise or reliable guide to upcoming elections.","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47713619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"One President at a Time? How the President‐Elect Shapes U.S. Foreign Policy during the Transition","authors":"Jeffrey H. Michaels, Andrew Payne","doi":"10.1111/psq.12795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12795","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48892410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Barack Obama and the Politics of Military Force, 2009–2012","authors":"Andrew Kenealy","doi":"10.1111/psq.12798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12798","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46768,"journal":{"name":"Presidential Studies Quarterly","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2022-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47147467","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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