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Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment Considering the Sequence of the First and Second Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough 考虑南海海槽第一次和第二次地震顺序的海啸危害概率评估
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0839
Yuyu Jiao, N. Nojima
The Earthquake Research Committee (ERC) of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion conducted a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment due to large earthquakes along the Nankai Trough for the next 30 years. Utilizing the basic data of earthquake source models and calculated maximum tsunami heights, the authors propose a method to evaluate the hazard curves of the first and second earthquakes separately, considering the sequence of earthquake occurrence in one cycle of large earthquake activities along the Nankai Trough. First, based on the relative weights allocated to the 176 occurrence patterns of 79 earthquake source regions, the weights for the 2,720 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are calculated. The hazard curve of the first earthquake is evaluated using the 2,720 sets of maximum tsunami heights and weights under the condition that one of the CEFMs causes an earthquake. Next, the conditional hazard curves for the possible second earthquakes conditional on each individual first earthquake are calculated. Finally, the hazard curve for the second earthquake is evaluated as a weighted average of the conditional hazard curves. Numerical examples are shown for 15 sites. The first earthquake accounts for about 60% or more of the total hazard evaluated by ERC, and its contribution increases with increasing maximum tsunami height. The first and second earthquakes account for 80%–90% of the total hazard.
地震研究促进总部地震研究委员会(ERC)对未来30年南开海槽大地震引发的海啸危险性进行了概率评估。利用震源模型的基本资料和计算出的最大海啸高度,考虑南开海槽一个大地震活动周期内地震发生的先后顺序,提出了一、二次地震危险性曲线分别评价的方法。首先,根据79个震源区176种发生模式的相对权重,计算出2720种特征地震断层模型(cefm)的权重。在其中一个cefm引起地震的情况下,利用2720组最大海啸高度和海啸权重对第一次地震的危险曲线进行了评价。接下来,计算以每个单独的第一次地震为条件的可能的第二次地震的条件危险曲线。最后,用条件危险性曲线的加权平均值来评价第二次地震的危险性曲线。给出了15个点的数值算例。第一次地震约占ERC评估的总灾害的60%以上,其贡献随着最大海啸高度的增加而增加。第一次和第二次地震占总灾害的80%-90%。
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引用次数: 0
Korean Records of a Probable Tsunami in the Japan Sea in May 1415 韩国关于 1415 年 5 月日本海可能发生海啸的记录
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0835
Kentaro Hattori
The northern part of the Japan Sea is a seismically active region where several large earthquakes were recorded in the past. Some of the earthquakes were accompanied by tsunamis. However, there is insufficient information on them. In this study, we aimed to examine a sea surface abnormality that occurred in 1415, as described in the Chosŏn Wangjo Sillok (“The Chronology of the Li Dynasty of Korea”). This sea surface abnormality was widely observed along the east coast of the Korean Peninsula, and seawater run-up and withdrawal occurred several times. Volcanic eruptions or earthquakes can be considered the cause of this sea surface abnormality, with the possibility of heavy rain or wind.
日本海北部是地震活跃地区,过去曾发生过几次大地震。有些地震还伴有海啸。然而,关于它们的信息并不充分。在这项研究中,我们的目的是检查在Chosŏn Wangjo Sillok(“朝鲜李朝年表”)中描述的1415年发生的海面异常。这种海面异常现象在韩半岛东海岸普遍存在,并多次出现海水上升和退缩现象。火山爆发或地震可以被认为是海面异常的原因,有可能是大雨或大风。
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引用次数: 0
Applicability of a Modified I-D Method for Predicting Slope Failure to Different Slopes 用于预测不同斜坡崩塌的改进型 I-D 方法的适用性
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0859
T. Danjo, T. Ishizawa
The authors have proposed a modified intensity–duration (I-D) method that incorporates field measurements of tensiometer to improve the accuracy of predicting the risk of slope failure. This method uses an indicator that considers the relationship of the duration from the time point at which the saturated zone is assumed to have formed to the average rainfall intensity during that period. The usefulness of this method has been verified, but its applicability to different slopes has not yet been investigated. Here, the authors collected long-term observations on a natural slope in Minamiashigara City, Kanagawa Prefecture, and examined the Modified I-D method using data on slope failures in the surrounding area. The authors also compared the results with plots of previous rainfall index (soil water index–accumulated rainfall in 60 min, effective rainfall amount with a half-life of 72 h–effective rainfall amount with a half-life of 1.5 h, and accumulated rainfall–accumulated rainfall in 60 min). The snake curves for rainfall events during slope failure and non-failure were clearly separated. The accuracy was high, confirming the applicability of the modified I-D method.
作者提出了一种改进的强度-持续时间(I-D)方法,该方法结合了张力计的现场测量,以提高边坡破坏风险预测的准确性。该方法使用了一个指标,该指标考虑了从假定饱和区形成的时间点开始的持续时间与该期间的平均降雨强度之间的关系。该方法的有效性已得到验证,但其对不同边坡的适用性尚未得到研究。在这里,作者收集了神奈川县南ashigara市的一个天然边坡的长期观测数据,并使用周围地区的边坡失效数据检验了改进的I-D方法。并与以往降雨指数(土壤水分指数- 60 min累积雨量、有效雨量(72 h)、有效雨量(1.5 h)、累积雨量(60 min累积雨量)图进行了比较。破坏和非破坏时降雨事件的蛇形曲线明显分离。结果表明,改进后的I-D法具有较高的精度和适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Disaster Preparedness Using Local Wisdom Approach in Palu City 帕卢市利用地方智慧备灾法
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0852
Muhammad Rusydi, Y. Mudin, Rahmawati, Sabhan
Palu City is one of the city centers in the world which is located on a fault line that is prone to earthquakes and tsunamis. The latest earthquake and tsunami occurred on September 28, 2018 with a magnitude of Mw 7.4, which was centered on the ground and caused a large tsunami in Palu City. The earthquake and tsunami claimed 4,194 lives and damaged 55,102 buildings while missing, heavily, and lightly damaged. To reduce the impact of disasters, it is necessary to make efforts to increase awareness based on local wisdom so that it can be easily implemented in the community of Palu City. Local wisdom was explored by the people of Palu City and saw its effect on the level of alertness to disasters caused by the earthquake and tsunami. Local wisdom ombo is obtained from the people of Palu City, which contains a prohibition on building close to clean water sources. Data collection was carried out by conducting interviews with 121 affected communities regarding their knowledge, attitudes, and environmental conditions related to the level of vigilance. For environmental variables, local activity was a parameter included in the survey. The results of the analysis showed that the level of knowledge about the earthquake and tsunami as well as attitudes based on local wisdom increased the level of vigilance in disaster risk reduction efforts in Palu City. The results of the analysis showed that the implementation of attitudes based on local wisdom can affect the level of alertness with a value of 0.87, which means that the application of local wisdom can increase preparedness for earthquake and tsunami disaster. Indigenous latent variables (knowledge, attitudes, and environmental conditions) had a strong effect on exogenous latent variables (earthquake and tsunami preparedness) with an R2 value of 0.741.
帕卢市是世界上位于地震和海啸易发断层线上的城市中心之一。最近一次地震和海啸发生在2018年9月28日,震级为7.4兆瓦,震中位于地面,在帕卢市引发了大海啸。地震和海啸夺去了4194人的生命,55102座建筑或失踪或轻微受损。为了减少灾害的影响,有必要在当地智慧的基础上努力提高意识,以便在帕卢市社区轻松实施。帕卢市人民探索了当地的智慧,并看到了它对地震和海啸造成的灾害的警惕性水平的影响。当地的智慧ombo是从帕卢市的人们那里获得的,其中包括禁止在靠近清洁水源的地方建造房屋。通过采访121个受影响社区,了解他们的知识、态度和与警戒水平相关的环境条件,收集数据。对于环境变量,当地活动是调查中的一个参数。分析结果表明,关于地震和海啸的知识水平以及基于当地智慧的态度提高了帕卢市减少灾害风险工作的警惕水平。分析结果表明,基于地方智慧的态度的实施可以影响警觉性水平,其值为0.87,这意味着应用地方智慧可以增加对地震和海啸灾害的准备。本土潜在变量(知识、态度和环境条件)对外生潜在变量(地震和海啸准备)有很强的影响,R2值为0.741。
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引用次数: 0
The Seismic Activity of the Nasudake Volcano Using Hypocenter Data (1998–2022) from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience 利用日本国家地球科学与灾害恢复研究所震源数据的那祖达克火山地震活动(1998-2022)
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0740
Toshikazu Tanada, Hideki Ueda
The seismic activity of the Nasudake volcano is summarized based on hypocenter data from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED). The observation period spans 24 years, from October 1998 to December 2022, and the number of earthquakes during the period is 12,064. Of these, 80.1% occurred between depths of 0.7 and 2.6 km; 94% registered between -1.6 and 0.9 on the Richter scale. The lower limit of the detectable magnitude (magnitude of completeness, Mc) for the transition of the volcano-observation system was examined and found to be -0.5 for Mc before 2005 and -1.4 for Mc after 2012. Focusing on zones where seismic activity was concentrated, we divided the active zones into four areas. The greatest concentration of seismic activity, 76.4% of the total number of earthquakes, was between Chausu-dake and Asahi-dake. The depth of the earthquakes in this active area was shallower than 2 km, and most were micro-earthquakes (1 ≤ M < 3) or smaller. Earthquakes have been occurring regularly for 24 years. This active area includes the Chausu-dake lava dome formed by activities in 1408–1410 and two craters where phreatic eruptions have occurred since the Meiji era (1868–1912). Therefore, in considering volcano disaster-prevention measures, the relationship between this seismic area and volcanic activity should continue to be closely monitored.
根据日本国家地球科学与灾害恢复研究所(NIED)的震源数据,总结了那武代火山的地震活动。1998年10月至2022年12月共24年,共发生地震12064次。其中80.1%发生在0.7 ~ 2.6 km深度之间;94%的地震震级在里氏-1.6到0.9之间。考察了火山观测系统过渡的可探测星等下限(完整星等,Mc),发现2005年以前Mc为-0.5,2012年以后Mc为-1.4。针对地震活动集中的地区,我们将活动区划分为四个区域。地震活动最集中的是秋台和旭台之间,占地震总数的76.4%。该活跃区地震深度小于2 km,以1≤M <3)或更小。地震有规律地发生了24年。该活跃区包括1408年至1410年形成的秋湖熔岩穹丘和明治时代(1868年至1912年)以来发生过潜水喷发的两个火山口。因此,在考虑火山灾害预防措施时,应继续密切监测该震区与火山活动之间的关系。
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引用次数: 15
Estimation of Sales Decline Risk Based on COVID-19 as a Model 基于COVID-19模型的销售下滑风险估计
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0796
Katsumasa Ohori
Owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), many companies experienced a sharp and significant decline in sales, resulting in a major crisis. This study proposes a method for estimating the risk of a sudden and significant decline in sales to tackle the aforementioned issue. The method is based on the distributional characteristics calculated from historical data of companies mainly in the transportation industry, which are vulnerable to disasters, using the damage caused by COVID-19 as a lesson. Furthermore, we conduct an empirical analysis using the proposed stochastic model for the case of the All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. (ANA), a major Japanese airline company. The results are as follows: (1) the sales change rates are normally distributed before COVID-19, but inclusion of post-COVID-19 data produced asymmetric distribution of sales change rates; (2) the proposed statistic is log-normally distributed (including post-COVID-19 data) for a time interval of two or three years; (3) the probability of actual sales decline was estimated to be between 0.1% and 1.6% in fiscal year (FY) 2020 and FY2021 post-COVID-19; (4) the estimated risk of future sales decline is well-grounded in light of past actual values.
由于2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19),许多公司的销售额急剧下降,导致重大危机。本研究提出了一种估算销售突然显著下降风险的方法来解决上述问题。该方法是以易受灾害影响的交通运输行业为主的企业的历史数据为基础,以新型冠状病毒感染症(COVID-19)造成的损失为教训,计算出分布特征。在此基础上,以日本大型航空公司全日空(ANA)为例,运用本文提出的随机模型进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)新冠肺炎前销售变化率呈正态分布,但纳入后数据后销售变化率呈现非对称分布;(2)建议的统计量为对数正态分布(包括covid -19后的数据),时间间隔为2年或3年;(3) 2019冠状病毒病后,2020财年和2021财年实际销售额下降的概率估计在0.1%至1.6%之间;(4)根据过去的实际价值,对未来销售下降风险的估计是有充分根据的。
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引用次数: 0
Failure Mechanism and Deformation-Based Design of Narrow Geosynthetic Reinforced Soil Walls 窄土工合成材料加筋土墙破坏机理及变形设计
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0715
Wen-Yi Hung, Truong-Nhat-Phuong Pham, Susannah Boer
In recent years, the working performance of mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) walls has shown their outstanding stability and capacity to accommodate large deformation. The behavior and failure mechanisms of conventional MSE walls have been carefully examined. In cases where space is limited, such as in mountainous regions, in coastal regions, and for road expansion, the conventional MSE wall can be modified by adjusting the length of reinforcement to conform the construction area. For narrow geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) wall, the modification and arrangement of reinforcement components, including reinforcement tensile strength, vertical spacing, and aspect ratio, play key roles in the behavior of reinforced earth walls and can also lead to differences in the distribution of lateral earth pressure compared with conventional MSE walls. In this study, a series of geotechnical centrifuge tests are conducted to clarify the failure behaviors, distribution of lateral earth pressure, and deformation progresses of narrow GRS walls. Among the investigated variants, it is verified that improved reinforcement strength leads to a significant decrease in horizontal wall displacement. The relationship among lateral earth pressure, zero-earth-pressure zone, and horizontal displacement can be applied to predict the deformation of a narrow GRS wall.
近年来,机械稳定土(MSE)墙体的工作性能显示出其良好的稳定性和承受大变形的能力。对传统MSE壁的行为和破坏机制进行了仔细的研究。在空间有限的情况下,如山区、沿海地区和道路扩建,可以通过调整加固长度来修改传统的MSE墙,以符合建筑面积。对于窄缝土工合成加筋土(GRS)墙,加固构件的修改和布置,包括加固抗拉强度、竖向间距和宽高比,对加筋土墙的性能起着关键作用,也会导致侧土压力分布与常规MSE墙的差异。本研究通过一系列的岩土离心试验,阐明了窄壁GRS的破坏行为、侧土压力分布和变形过程。在研究的变量中,验证了钢筋强度的提高导致水平墙位移的显著减小。横向土压力、零土压力带与水平位移之间的关系可用于预测窄地磁墙的变形。
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引用次数: 0
Consideration for Solving Problems Related to Volcanic Disaster Prevention by Real-Time Grasping of Climber Movement 登山者运动实时掌握解决火山灾害防治相关问题的思考
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0754
Yousuke Miyagi, Kazushiro Yoshimori, Shigeharu Kaneta, Yuichiro Usuda
We carry out experiments to grasp the movement of climbers as well as an experiment to share the disaster situation with related organizations in real time, at Nasudake in 2020 and Ontakesan in 2022. In the experiments, small beacons are distributed to many climbers, and their movements are detected by receivers installed on mountain trails in advance. We build an online viewer to visualize the monitoring results on a web map in real time, and share them with the related organizations, and exchange opinions with them about the use of the acquired data for disaster prevention. Based on the results of the experiments, we consider how to solve problems related to volcanic disaster prevention. It is shown that the systems used in the experiments leads to solutions to problems related to volcanic disaster prevention during not only disasters but also normal times, such as updating drills and revising evacuation plans.
我们在2020年和2022年分别在Nasudake和Ontakesan进行了掌握登山者运动的实验和实时与相关机构分享灾害情况的实验。在实验中,小信标被分发给许多登山者,它们的运动被预先安装在山路上的接收器探测到。我们建立了一个在线查看器,将监测结果实时可视化在网络地图上,并与相关组织共享,并与他们就获取的数据用于防灾交流意见。根据实验结果,对如何解决火山灾害防治的相关问题进行了思考。实验结果表明,该系统不仅可以解决灾害时的火山灾害预防问题,还可以解决正常情况下的火山灾害预防问题,如更新演习和修改疏散计划。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2023 美国国家环境与发展研究所减灾与抗灾科技前沿研究特刊2023
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0729
Kaoru Takara, Shin Aoi
We are very pleased to publish this Special Issue, NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2023, which includes three papers and one tutorial. The first paper, authored by Dhakal and Kunugi, presents the orientation changes that earthquake movements have caused in the accelerometers of a seafloor observation network for earthquakes and tsunamis along the Japan Trench (S-net). This study is expected to contribute to more accurate analyses of S-net data. The second and third papers are reports of research done on volcanoes. The paper by Tanada and Ueda presents the seismic activity of the Nasudake volcano through the use of NIED hypocenter data gathered from 1998 to 2022. Tanada and Ueda state that earthquakes have regularly occurred near the Chausudake lava dome and two craters and that, from the volcano disaster-prevention point of view, it is important to monitor the relationship between this seismic area and volcanic activity. The third paper, by Miyagi et al., reports on an experiment aimed at grasping the movement of climbers and sharing the level of disaster threat with climber-related organizations in real time. Their online visualization system for the movement of climbers helps to provide solutions to problems related to volcanic disaster prevention not only during disaster events but also in the periods between. The last paper is a tutorial by Hanashima and Usuda on “SIP4D-ZIP,” which is a standard for synthesizing and sharing common information from multiple organizations. This tutorial explains how to realize a versatile and automatic mutual data sharing and usage system for various kinds of necessary disaster information. In conjunction with the fourth 7-year mid/long term plan period 2016-2022, NIED has published seven special issues since 2017, including this 2023 issue. We believe that the articles in these seven issues can contribute to the advancement of science and technology for disaster risk reduction and resilience.
我们很高兴出版这期特刊《美国国家环境与发展研究所减少灾害风险和恢复力的科技前沿研究2023》,包括三篇论文和一篇教程。第一篇论文由Dhakal和Kunugi撰写,展示了地震运动在日本海沟(S-net)地震和海啸海底观测网(S-net)的加速度计中引起的方向变化。本研究将有助于对S-net数据进行更准确的分析。第二篇和第三篇论文是关于火山的研究报告。田田和上田的论文通过使用1998年至2022年收集的NIED震源数据,展示了那武ake火山的地震活动。Tanada和Ueda指出,地震经常发生在Chausudake熔岩穹丘和两个火山口附近,从火山灾害预防的角度来看,监测这个地震区和火山活动之间的关系是很重要的。Miyagi等人的第三篇论文报道了一项实验,旨在实时掌握登山者的运动情况,并与登山者相关组织分享灾害威胁程度。他们的登山者运动在线可视化系统不仅有助于在灾难发生期间,而且有助于在灾难发生之间提供与火山灾害预防有关的问题的解决方案。最后一篇论文是Hanashima和Usuda关于“SIP4D-ZIP”的教程,它是用于综合和共享来自多个组织的公共信息的标准。本教程介绍了如何为各种必要的灾难信息实现一个通用的、自动的相互数据共享和使用系统。自2017年以来,NIED结合2016-2022年的第四个七年中长期规划,出版了七期特刊,其中包括2023年的特刊。我们相信,这七期的文章可以促进科学技术的进步,以减少灾害风险和恢复力。
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引用次数: 0
Capacity Building for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Long-Term Program of the IRDR International Centre of Excellence at Taipei (ICoE-Taipei) 减少灾害风险能力建设:IRDR台北国际卓越中心(ICoE-Taipei)的长期项目
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2023.p0691
Jian-Cheng Lee, Chung-Pai Chang, Ying Liao
This paper provides a review of the capacity-building program of the Integrated Research for Disaster Reduction International Centre of Excellence at Taipei (IRDR ICoE Taipei) for disaster risk reduction (DRR) since 2011. We present the reasoning, motivation, organizing philosophy, and framework on why and how we have created and run this program, before illustrating its content, including workshop or training course (i.e., Advanced Institute (AI)), seed grant project, follow-up special session of conferences, special issue for publication, and online Master Forum series during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also highlight the efforts, notable results, and achievements of the ICoE Taipei on its long-term capacity-building program on DRR, including 14 in-person (in and outside of Taiwan) and 4 online AIs and 31 seed grant projects in 2011–2022.
本文回顾了台北国际减灾综合研究卓越中心(IRDR ICoE Taipei)自2011年以来的减灾能力建设计划。我们介绍了为什么以及如何创建和运行这个项目的原因、动机、组织理念和框架,然后说明了其内容,包括研讨会或培训课程(即高级研究所(AI))、种子资助项目、后续特别会议、出版特刊以及2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的在线大师论坛系列。我们也强调ICoE台北在长期减灾能力建设项目上的努力、显著成果和成就,包括2011-2022年期间的14个面对面(台湾内外)和4个在线ai和31个种子资助项目。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Disaster Research
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