Metroeconomica最新文献

Using an ARDL-ECM model, we estimate the aggregate and sectoral elasticities for Argentina. We confirm that the income elasticities of exports are lower than those of imports. When we control by real labor costs, exchange rate volatility, the black-market exchange rate and domestic absorption, the difference between income elasticities is reduced but remains statistically significant. In the sectoral breakdown, the higher the technological intensity in the industry, the higher the income elasticities. Agro-based, textile, automotive, process, and engineering products have price elasticities two or three times the magnitude of aggregate elasticity.

Taking a cue from some passages of The Wealth of Nations, this paper defines notions of maximum willingness to pay and of individual surplus expressed in hours of labour for a two-good pre-capitalist economy. From the individual surplus, a consistent objective theory of individual choice is constructed, and a demand schedule free from subjective elements is derived.

In this paper, we argue that studying recession events through the shapes observed in sequences of GDP data can help to avoid methodological complications and offer new insights to traditional inquiries. With a set of 147 recession events from 77 countries, we analyze whether the shape of the output dynamic might be affected by the application of countercyclical policies. Firstly, we apply a machine learning technique to discover and cluster the shapes (or ‘shapelets’) that prevail in empirical spells. Secondly, we use a multinomial model to study fiscal and monetary interventions, in which we specify the categorical variable with a set of statistically different shapelets. Not only do we find strong empirical evidence that it is possible to overcome a recession through countercyclical policies, but also that there are non-linear effects that make it more likely when the strength of these policies crosses certain thresholds.

This paper builds and explores in detail a post-Keynesian–Sraffian one-country model of effective demand, which, on the one hand, extends the Kurz multiplier model to open–with state-economies of single production and, on the other hand, is applicable to data from the National Input–Output Tables of the World Input–Output Database. Thus, it estimates the net output, import and employment matrix demand multipliers for the world's 10 largest economies. The overall findings provide general support for and new insights into Sraffian theoretical and policy arguments: (i) the multiplier effects depend heavily on the physical composition of autonomous demand; (ii) the incremental share of wages in net national income can move in either direction with an increase in the savings ratios out of wages and profits and/or the corresponding direct tax rates; (iii) there is, in general, no one-to-one correspondence between alternative tax–transfer policies and their multiplier effects; and (iv) there is not necessarily an inverse relationship between the overall level of the profit rate and the multiplier effects or the wage share.

This study considers low-ability workers with the difference in their specialization areas and investigates the consequence of automation. There are two findings. First, owing to automation, it is more difficult for displaced workers than for other workers to find a new job, because these displaced workers lose their suitable jobs. Consequently, the unemployment rate increases with an increase in the number of displaced workers. Second, unless an additional increase in unsuitable jobs is large under the introduction of new tasks, automation does not necessarily increase the unemployment rate because it is less difficult for workers to find a new job.

This paper uses an agent-based computational model to investigate whether and how considering the firm's reputation in the public procurement selection process affects the expected final contract cost. We take account of different sets of simulations and a range of model parameters (such as firm skills, level of opportunistic rebate, relative weights of reputation and rebate) and propose a reputation index based on the cost overruns recorded by winning firms at the conclusion of their contracts. We show that this index allows the awarding authority to (i) select the most efficient and the least opportunistic firms, and (ii) to exclude firms that engage in frequent opportunistic behavior whose reputation has declined. Our results suggest that reputation matters, and we derive some implications for policy.

Thirlwall's law is one of the most powerful empirical regularities in demand-led growth theories. In recent years, the challenges imposed by globalisation have led to a new wave of studies incorporating into this framework topics such as ecological sustainability, the complexity of innovation processes, the role of institutions, the composition of external imbalances, and gender issues. We notice some overlapping between two alternative interpretations: one that sees the law as a binding constraint and another that adopts a kind of ‘centre-of-gravity’ perspective. It is argued that they may be rather complementary. By means of a simple Keynesian multiplier model compatible with Harrodian instability, we show that assuming a balance-of-payments ceiling to growth gives rise to persistent and bounded fluctuations such that the external constraint works as an asymmetric ‘centre-of-gravity’. There is no need to impose a floor to output. Moreover, the model allows for different sources of autonomous demand. Numerical simulations show the robustness of our results with respect to alternative scenarios.