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Latin America’s Polarization in Comparative Perspective 从比较角度看拉丁美洲的两极分化
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.17
Jennifer McCoy
Political polarization is a systemic-level and multifaceted process that severs cross-cutting ties and shifts perceptions of politics to a zero-sum game. When it turns pernicious, political actors and supporters view opponents as an existential threat and the capacity of democratic institutions to process political conflict breaks down. The article identifies four common fault lines of polarization globally – who belongs, democracy, inequality and social contract. It argues that while Latin American countries experience, to varying degrees, all four of the fault lines, it is the deep-seated, persistent social hierarchies oriented around class, race, and place that stand out relative to other countries. Reaching consensus on reforms that may renew or reformulate agreements on the terms of the social contract, boundaries of community membership, and redressing social inequality is a tall task. Yet the region’s sustained consensus on the democratic rules of the game can provide the mechanisms for addressing this task if new majority coalitions can be formed.
政治两极分化是一个系统层面的多层面过程,它切断了交叉联系,使人们对政治的看法转变为零和游戏。当两极分化发展到恶性程度时,政治行动者和支持者会将对手视为生存威胁,民主机构处理政治冲突的能力也会崩溃。文章指出了全球两极分化的四个常见问题--归属、民主、不平等和社会契约。文章认为,虽然拉美国家在不同程度上都存在这四条断层,但与其他国家相比,以阶级、种族和地域为导向的根深蒂固、持续存在的社会等级制度更为突出。就改革达成共识,以更新或重新制定关于社会契约条款、社区成员界限和纠正社会不平等的协议,是一项艰巨的任务。然而,如果能够形成新的多数联盟,该地区对民主游戏规则的持续共识就能为完成这一任务提供机制。
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引用次数: 0
Disjointed Polarization in Chile’s Enduring Crisis of Representation 智利持久的代表权危机中脱节的两极分化
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.19
Juan Pablo Luna
This analytical essay proposes the notion of disjointed polarization to characterize the nature of polarization in contemporary Chile. In disjointed polarization, elite-level polarization does not lead to a successful electoral realignment. Disjointed polarization is thus consistent with a long-lasting crisis of representation in which a serial disconnect between politicians (pursuing different polarizing strategies) and a sizable fraction of the electorate persists, as voters remain alienated from old and emerging political elites. Because the structural changes that make disjointed polarization persist longer than expected in Chile today are widespread across Latin America, the essay speculates on the possibility that enduring disjointed polarization applies to other cases where neither a “populist realignment” nor “generative polarization” took place. Instead, disjointed polarization might reflect the onset of a new (non-partisan representation) normal.
这篇分析文章提出了 "脱节极化 "的概念,以描述当代智利两极分化的性质。在脱节的两极分化中,精英层面的两极分化不会导致成功的选举调整。因此,脱节极化与长期的代表危机是一致的,在这种情况下,政治家(追求不同的极化策略)和相当一部分选民之间的连续脱节持续存在,因为选民仍然疏远旧的和新的政治精英。由于结构性变化使得脱节的两极分化在智利持续的时间比预期的要长,而这种结构性变化在整个拉美地区都很普遍,因此文章推测,在其他既没有发生 "民粹主义调整 "也没有发生 "产生性两极分化 "的情况下,也有可能出现持久的脱节的两极分化。相反,脱节的两极分化可能反映了一种新的(无党派代表)常态的开始。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Trends in Mass-Level Ideological Polarization in Latin America 拉丁美洲群众意识形态两极分化的最新趋势
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.13
Paolo Moncagatta, Pedro Silva
This article offers an analysis of the changes in mass-level ideological polarization in Latin America. It provides a cross-national, region-wide assessment of polarization dynamics using survey data on left-right ideological identities. A novel indicator for measuring ideological polarization at the individual level is proposed, which is more compatible with theoretical conceptualizations of ideological polarization than other existing indicators. The indicator is applied to data from the AmericasBarometer surveys to measure degrees and changes in mass-level ideological polarization in 19 Latin American countries between 2006 and 2019. The study reveals a substantial process of mass-level ideological restructuring, accompanied by a region-wide increase in ideological polarization in Latin America taking place during the second decade of the twenty-first century. We also find that ideological polarization, albeit varying in intensity from country to country, is clearly present at the mass level in the majority of countries in the region.
本文分析了拉丁美洲大众意识形态两极分化的变化。文章利用左右意识形态认同的调查数据,对两极分化的动态进行了跨国家、全地区的评估。报告提出了一个衡量个人层面意识形态极化的新指标,与其他现有指标相比,该指标更符合意识形态极化的理论概念。该指标被应用于美洲晴雨表调查数据,以衡量 2006 至 2019 年间 19 个拉美国家大众层面意识形态极化的程度和变化。研究显示,在二十一世纪的第二个十年中,伴随着整个地区意识形态两极分化的加剧,拉丁美洲出现了大规模的意识形态结构调整。我们还发现,尽管各国意识形态两极分化的程度不同,但该地区大多数国家在大众层面都明显存在意识形态两极分化。
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引用次数: 0
Anti-corruption Audits and Citizens’ Trust in Audit and Auditee Institutions 反腐败审计与公民对审计和被审计机构的信任
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.10
Letícia Barbabela

Anticorruption audits may deter corruption and signal to citizens that institutions are proactively combating it. However, by detecting and reporting corruption, audits might also unintentionally erode trust in institutions. Therefore, the impact of audits potentially hinges on whether they uncover corruption. Audit institutions, not implicated in the corruption they uncover, might be less likely to experience a decline in trust compared to auditee institutions. This study uses survey and administrative data from Brazil, leveraging a federal anti-corruption program that randomly selects municipalities for auditing. Results do not support the claim that audits boost institutional trust. Individuals in audited municipalities show no different levels of trust in local government or the audit institution than those in non-audited municipalities, and the coefficients may even indicate a negative effect. Additionally, audit institutions may not be better insulated from the corrosive effects of uncovering corruption than the institutions they audit.

反腐败审计可以遏制腐败,并向公民发出机构正在积极打击腐败的信号。然而,通过发现和报告腐败,审计也可能无意中削弱人们对机构的信任。因此,审计的影响可能取决于它们是否揭露了腐败。与被审计机构相比,没有卷入所揭露腐败的审计机构可能不太可能出现信任度下降的情况。本研究使用了巴西的调查和行政数据,利用联邦反腐计划随机抽取市政当局进行审计。研究结果并不支持审计能提高机构信任度的说法。与未接受审计的城市相比,接受审计城市的个人对当地政府或审计机构的信任程度并无不同,系数甚至可能显示出负面影响。此外,审计机构可能并不比其审计的机构更能免受揭露腐败的腐蚀性影响。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction: The New Polarization in Latin America 导言:拉丁美洲新的两极分化
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.15
Rodolfo Sarsfield, Paolo Moncagatta, Kenneth M. Roberts

Mounting evidence suggests that Latin American democracies are characterized by politics and societies becoming more divisive, confrontational, and polarized. This process, which we define here as the “new polarization” in Latin America, seems to weaken the ability of democratic institutions to manage and resolve social and political conflicts. Although recent scholarship suggests that polarization is integral to contemporary patterns of democratic “backsliding” seen in much of the world, this new polarization in the region has not yet received systematic scholarly attention. Aiming to address this gap in the literature, the different contributions in this special issue revise the conceptualization, measurement, and theory of a multidimensional phenomenon such as polarization, including both its ideological and affective dimensions, as well as perspectives at the elite and mass levels of analysis. Findings shed light on the phenomenon of polarization as both a dependent and an independent variable, contributing to comparative literature on polarization and its relationship to democratic governance.

越来越多的证据表明,拉美民主政体的特点是政治和社会变得更加分裂、对抗和两极化。我们在此将这一过程定义为拉丁美洲的 "新两极分化",它似乎削弱了民主体制管理和解决社会与政治冲突的能力。尽管最近的学术研究表明,两极分化是当代世界许多地区民主 "倒退 "模式的组成部分,但该地区的这种新的两极分化尚未得到系统的学术关注。为了弥补文献中的这一空白,本特刊中的不同文章对两极分化这种多维现象的概念、测量和理论进行了修订,包括其意识形态和情感层面,以及精英和大众层面的分析视角。研究结果揭示了作为因变量和自变量的两极分化现象,为有关两极分化及其与民主治理关系的比较文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Strategic Resources for Drug Trafficking Organizations and the Geography of Violence: Evidence from Mexico 贩毒组织的战略资源与暴力地理:墨西哥的证据
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.11
Martín Macías-Medellín, Aldo F. Ponce

This article helps understand why locations close to strategic infrastructure to transport illegal drugs (seaports, airports, highways, and US ports of entry along the Mexico-US border) or to increase income (pipelines) experience different levels of violence due to DTOs operations. Our theory breaks down the impact of the geographical distance to these facilities on violence into two effects. The first effect is produced by the level of (violent) competition among DTOs, measured by the number of DTOs employing violence. We report that greater proximity to the U.S. ports of entry along the Mexico-US border, ports, and airports furthers the number of competitors, and such increase boosts violence. The second effect shapes the intensity of competition among DTOs. Reductions in the costs of excluding competing DTOs from using the facility could trigger greater confrontation among DTOs. We confirm the importance of this second effect in relation to ports and the U.S. ports of entry along the Mexico-US border.

这篇文章有助于理解为什么靠近用于运输非法毒品的战略基础设施(海港、机场、高速公路和墨美边境的美国入境口岸)或用于增加收入的战略基础设施(输油管道)的地区会因贩毒组织的活动而经历不同程度的暴力。我们的理论将这些设施的地理距离对暴力的影响细分为两种效应。第一种影响来自于 DTO 之间的(暴力)竞争程度,以 DTO 使用暴力的数量来衡量。我们的报告显示,墨西哥与美国边境、港口和机场距离美国入境口岸越近,竞争者的数量就越多,而竞争者数量的增加会加剧暴力。第二种效应影响了贩毒组织之间的竞争强度。排除竞争的 DTO 使用设施的成本降低,可能会引发 DTO 之间更大的对抗。我们证实了第二种效应在墨西哥-美国边境沿线的港口和美国入境口岸方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Populist Storytelling and Negative Affective Polarization: Social Media Evidence from Mexico 讲述民粹主义故事与消极情感极化:墨西哥社交媒体证据
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.7
Rodolfo Sarsfield, Zacarías Abuchanab

The ideational definition of populism proposes that a narrative is populist if it is characterized by a Manichean cosmology that divides the political community between a “people,” conceived as a homogeneously virtuous entity, and an “elite,” conceived as a homogeneously corrupt entity. Departing from that conceptualization, this work first investigates the specific stories that Andrés Manuel López Obrador uses to spread his populist worldview, which we call “storytelling.” We define the idea of storytelling as the art of telling a story where emotions, characters and other details are applied in order to promote a particular point of view or set of values. Second, we explore whether some of those stories produce greater negative affective polarization, here defined as the extent to which rival sociopolitical camps view each other as a disliked out-group. Findings suggest that some specific stories—in particular, what we call “stories of conspiracy” and “stories of ostracism”—indeed tend to induce more polarized attitudes among citizens.

民粹主义的意识形态定义认为,如果一种叙事以摩尼教宇宙观为特征,将政治社会划分为 "人民 "和 "精英 "两部分,前者被视为同质化的良善实体,后者被视为同质化的腐败实体,那么这种叙事就是民粹主义的。从这一概念出发,本作品首先研究了安德烈斯-曼努埃尔-洛佩斯-奥夫拉多尔用来传播其民粹主义世界观的具体故事,我们称之为 "讲故事"。我们将 "讲故事 "定义为讲述故事的艺术,在故事中运用情感、人物和其他细节来宣传特定的观点或价值观。其次,我们探讨了其中一些故事是否会产生更大的消极情感极化,这里的消极情感极化是指对立的社会政治阵营将对方视为不受欢迎的外群体的程度。研究结果表明,一些特定的故事--特别是我们称之为 "阴谋故事 "和 "排斥故事 "的故事--确实倾向于在公民中引发更多的两极分化态度。
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引用次数: 0
Shut Up! Governments’ Popular Support and Journalist Harassment: Evidence from Latin America 闭嘴!政府的民众支持与记者骚扰:拉丁美洲的证据
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.3
Claudio Balderacchi, Andrea Cassani, Luca Tomini

During the past few decades, Latin American governments’ recurrent attacks against journalists have contributed to the erosion of press freedom in the region and, relatedly, of the quality of democracy. Yet what pushes governments to harass journalists? We argue that governments are more likely to harass journalists when popular support for them drops. Due to the ability of journalists to influence public opinion, governments could perceive the harassment of journalists as a means to punish and silence those individuals who are seen as contributing to their decline in public support or as obstacles to regaining popularity. We test our argument on a sample of Latin American countries observed from 1990 to 2019. We find that declines in governments’ popular support lead to more harassment of journalists. Our research contributes to the debate on the determinants of press freedom and sheds further light on the current decline of democratic quality in Latin America.

在过去的几十年里,拉美国家政府一再攻击记者,导致该地区的新闻自由以及与之相关的民主质量受到侵蚀。然而,是什么促使政府骚扰记者呢?我们认为,当民众对政府的支持率下降时,政府更有可能骚扰记者。由于记者能够影响公众舆论,政府可能将骚扰记者视为一种手段,以惩罚那些被视为导致其公众支持率下降或阻碍其重获民心的人,并让他们保持沉默。我们以 1990 年至 2019 年期间观察到的拉丁美洲国家为样本,检验了我们的论点。我们发现,政府支持率的下降会导致更多的记者受到骚扰。我们的研究为有关新闻自由决定因素的讨论做出了贡献,并进一步揭示了当前拉丁美洲民主质量下降的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Why Didn’t Brazilian Democracy Die? 巴西民主为何没有消亡?
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2024.4
Marcus André Melo, Carlos Pereira

Brazil, for many scholars and pundits, showcased the risk of democratic breakdown with the election of a far-right populist like Jair Bolsonaro. Against pessimistic expectations, however, not only has Brazilian democracy survived but politics has returned to business as usual. What can explain this supposedly unanticipated outcome? This article provides an analytical assessment of this this puzzle and offers an alternative explanation. We argue that both the diagnoses of Brazilian institutions and the predictions made were misguided. We explore the role played by the Supreme Court, party system, media, and congressional politics in restricting Bolsonaro’s illiberal initiatives.

在许多学者和专家看来,巴西选举出了像雅伊尔-博尔索纳罗这样的极右民粹主义者,显示出民主崩溃的风险。然而,与悲观的预期相反,巴西不仅民主得以延续,政治也恢复如常。是什么原因导致了这一所谓的意外结果?本文对这一难题进行了分析评估,并提出了另一种解释。我们认为,对巴西体制的诊断和预测都是错误的。我们探讨了最高法院、政党制度、媒体和国会政治在限制博尔索纳罗的非自由主义举措方面所发挥的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Why Latin American Parties Are Not Coming Back 拉美政党为何不再回归
IF 1.9 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1017/lap.2023.40
Omar Sánchez-Sibony
This essay documents growing partisan social uprootedness across Latin America over time, manifested in diminishing social trust toward parties, debilitation of links between parties and social collectivities, lowering levels of partisanship, and rising incidence of personalism in the electorate. It focuses on some unrecognized and undertheorized causal factors behind partisan involution in the region, putting emphasis on mutually reinforcing processes. First, it identifies forces endogenous to the traits of origin of diminished parties that foster their uprootedness and decay; second, it lays out some of the manifold ways that the weakening of political parties fuels regime malperformance, in a mutually reinforcing vicious circle; third, it outlines the existence of mutual feedback loops between political agency and structure; fourth, it identifies various agential sources of party decay. There are strong theoretical and empirical reasons to expect continued party deinstitutionalization across Latin America going forward.
本文记录了随着时间的推移,拉美地区日益增长的党派社会离乡背井现象,表现为社会对党派的信任度降低、党派与社会集体之间的联系减弱、党派性水平降低以及选民中个人主义的发生率上升。报告重点探讨了该地区党派内卷化背后一些未被认识和理论化的因果因素,强调了相辅相成的过程。首先,它指出了导致党派连根拔起和衰败的内生力量;其次,它列出了政党衰弱助长政权弊端的多种方式,这些方式形成了一个相互促进的恶性循环;第三,它概述了政治机构和政治结构之间存在的相互反馈循环;第四,它指出了党派衰败的各种动机来源。我们有充分的理论和经验理由期待整个拉丁美洲的政党非制度化进程继续向前发展。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Latin American Politics and Society
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