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Sovereigntism vs. anti-corruption messianism: a salient post-Soviet cleavage of populist mobilization 主权主义与反腐败弥赛亚主义:后苏联时期民粹主义动员的显著分裂
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-29 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1994821
S. Hoppe
ABSTRACT This paper explores the commonalities of populist mobilizations in the post-Soviet region. It identifies a salient populist cleavage between two political projects that differ fundamentally about their focal point of political action: externalist sovereigntism and internalist anti-corruption messianism. While sovereigntism takes a defensive stance repelling foreign forces hostile to “the people,” anti-corruption messianism offensively tackles cronyism impeding developmental salvation for “the people.” The paper reconstructs six sovereigntist and anti-corruption projects, which have unfolded across different non-democratic regimes in Russia, Armenia, and Ukraine throughout the past decade. It is argued that the conflict between sovereigntism and anti-corruption messianism relates to a twofold, distinctively post-Soviet constellation: uncertainty over conflictual geopolitical abeyance and the exasperation over social closure due to the prevalence of oligarchical patronalism. In this context, both populist projects constitute powerful strategies of solidarity-forging under conditions in which other channels of political articulation have been either blocked or exhausted.
摘要本文探讨了后苏联地区民粹主义动员的共性。它确定了两个政治项目之间明显的民粹主义分歧,这两个项目在政治行动的焦点上存在根本不同:外部主义主权主义和内部主义反腐败救世主主义。虽然主权主义采取防御立场来击退敌视“人民”的外国势力,但反腐败弥赛主义却在攻击性地解决阻碍“人民”发展救赎的任人唯亲问题,以及乌克兰。有人认为,主权主义和反腐败弥赛亚主义之间的冲突与后苏联时代的两个独特星座有关:对地缘政治冲突搁置的不确定性,以及对寡头庇护主义盛行导致的社会封闭的愤怒。在这种情况下,这两个民粹主义项目都构成了在其他政治表达渠道要么被封锁要么被耗尽的情况下形成团结的强大战略。
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引用次数: 0
From failing state to strategic partner: analyzing US and NATO political elite images of Georgia and policy implications from 1991 to 2020 从失败的国家到战略伙伴:分析1991年至2020年美国和北约政治精英对格鲁吉亚的形象和政策影响
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-07 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1984106
N. Gamkrelidze
ABSTRACT This article investigates U.S. and NATO political elite images of Georgia and policy implications from 1991 to 2020. The analysis relies on the author’s 44 original interviews with U.S. and NATO political elites, including U.S. Secretaries and Assistant Secretaries of States, U.S. Generals, Secretaries-General and Deputy Secretaries of NATO, and others in power in the different periods from 1991 to 2020. The study shows that three main images of Georgia have emerged over the 30-year historical period in the eyes of U.S. and NATO political elites. In the first two decades, leadership and personal connections have increased the likelihood of certain policies together with material determinants and ideational factors. In the third decade, personal ties had disappeared, but structural incentives were acknowledged by U.S. and NATO elites which impacted their policies. Moreover, results show that the U.S. relationship with Georgia has been chiefly personalized rather than institutionalized.
本文研究了1991年至2020年美国和北约政治精英在格鲁吉亚的形象及其政策影响。该分析基于作者对美国和北约政治精英的44次原创访谈,包括1991年至2020年不同时期的美国国务卿和助理国务卿、美国将军、北约秘书长和副秘书长以及其他当权人士。该研究表明,在美国和北约政治精英眼中,格鲁吉亚在过去30年的历史时期出现了三种主要形象。在最初的二十年里,领导和个人关系增加了某些政策的可能性,以及物质决定因素和观念因素。在第三个十年,个人关系消失了,但美国和北约精英们承认了结构性激励,这影响了他们的政策。此外,结果表明,美国与格鲁吉亚的关系主要是个性化的,而不是制度化的。
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引用次数: 1
Democracy promotion in times of autocratization: the case of Poland, 1989–2019 独裁时代的民主促进:以波兰为例,1989年至2019年
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1975443
Tsveta Petrova, P. Pospieszna
ABSTRACT How has the post-2015 democratic rollback in Poland impacted its support for the democratization of Ukraine and Belarus? Conventional wisdom is that countries undergoing autocratization would abandon democracy promotion. In contrast, we provide evidence that even as democracy was undermined at home, Poland continued to provide democracy support abroad, albeit less enthusiastically. We further document that it was not the normative commitment of Polish elites to democracy but the instrumental embeddedness of democracy promotion in Polish foreign and security policies that ensured its survival. Lastly, we find that Poland’s support for democracy abroad now is closer to the new conservative values promoted at home, implemented mostly through state-run or state-controlled programs and less focused on supporting civil and political society abroad. Our paper contributes to the literature on regime promotion by analyzing and theorizing the overlooked question of how foreign policy, including democracy promotion, shifts for countries undergo autocratization.
2015年后波兰民主倒退如何影响其对乌克兰和白俄罗斯民主化的支持?传统观点认为,经历独裁统治的国家将放弃民主推广。相比之下,我们提供的证据表明,即使民主在国内受到破坏,波兰继续在国外提供民主支持,尽管不那么热情。我们进一步证明,不是波兰精英对民主的规范性承诺,而是波兰外交和安全政策中促进民主的工具性嵌入,确保了民主的生存。最后,我们发现波兰现在对海外民主的支持更接近于在国内推广的新保守价值观,主要通过国家或国家控制的项目实施,较少关注对海外公民和政治社会的支持。我们的论文通过分析和理论化一个被忽视的问题,即外交政策(包括促进民主)如何在经历独裁统治的国家发生转变,从而对政权促进的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 3
Mixed signals: what Putin says about gender equality 混合信号:普京关于性别平等的言论
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1971927
J. Johnson, A. Novitskaya, V. Sperling, L. Sundstrom
ABSTRACT The prevailing wisdom among scholars of gender in Russia is that Vladimir Putin – as Russia’s “strongman” president – has become an agent of traditionalism. Some political scientists, often without a gendered lens, have argued that Putin is not so powerful, compelled to deploy various tactics and ideologies to balance competing interests among elites and retain support from the general public. We systematically analyze Putin’s statements about gender in two decades of his annual speeches (1999–2020) to better understand how Putin rules. Coding Putin’s remarks on a spectrum from promoting to opposing gender equality, we find that there has been no shift toward an explicit traditionalism, but rather, an expansion of the gender-stereotypical/Soviet views that have dominated Putin’s pronouncements all along. We argue that Putin’s diverse remarks across the spectrum of gender (in)equality constitute an important part of his efforts to balance diverse elite interests and enlist mass support.
摘要俄罗斯性别学者普遍认为,作为俄罗斯“强人”总统的弗拉基米尔·普京已经成为传统主义的代理人。一些经常没有性别视角的政治学家认为,普京没有那么强大,被迫部署各种策略和意识形态来平衡精英之间的竞争利益,并保持公众的支持。我们系统地分析了普京在其20年的年度演讲(1999-2000)中关于性别的言论,以更好地了解普京是如何统治的。将普京的言论从促进到反对性别平等,我们发现,普京的言论并没有向明确的传统主义转变,而是对一直主导普京言论的性别刻板印象/苏联观点的扩展。我们认为,普京在性别平等方面的多样化言论是他平衡不同精英利益和争取群众支持努力的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 7
Composition of the ruling elite, incentives for productive usage of rents, and prospects for Russia’s limited access order 统治精英的组成、对租金生产性使用的激励以及俄罗斯有限准入令的前景
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1966988
A. Yakovlev
ABSTRACT Vladimir Putin’s personal popularity creates the base for sociopolitical stability of regime. However, in the long term, the aspirations of Russia’s elite for national sovereignty will come to naught without anew economic development model. Applying the “limited access orders” framework of North, Wallis, and Weingast, this essay analyzes the interactions among three key groups in the ruling elite# the top federal bureaucracy, politically connected big business (oligarchs), and heads of security forces (siloviki). It considers the evolution of rent sources in Russia during the last 25 years and the incentives of elite groups. Itargues that under dominance of siloviki after 2012, the ruling coalition could not negotiate anew agreement on rent distribution, nor could it broaden access to economic opportunities and political activity for new social groups. Russia’s ruling elite missed the opportunity to avoid adeep shock that will likely destroy the existing “limited access order”.
摘要弗拉基米尔·普京的个人声望为政权的社会政治稳定奠定了基础。然而,从长远来看,如果没有新的经济发展模式,俄罗斯精英阶层对国家主权的渴望将化为泡影。本文运用North、Wallis和Weingast的“有限访问令”框架,分析了统治精英中三个关键群体之间的互动:最高联邦官僚机构、政治关联的大企业(寡头)和安全部队负责人(siloviki)。它考虑了过去25年俄罗斯租金来源的演变以及精英群体的激励因素。伊塔格认为,2012年后,在西洛维奇的统治下,执政联盟无法就租金分配问题达成新的协议,也无法扩大新社会群体获得经济机会和政治活动的机会。俄罗斯的统治精英错过了避免一场可能破坏现有“有限准入秩序”的大震荡的机会。
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引用次数: 7
State, business, and the political economy of modernization: introduction 国家、商业与现代化的政治经济学:导论
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1969732
Jardar Østbø
This special issue is dedicated to the workings of Russia’s political-economic system, theorized as a limited access order (North, Wallis, and Weingast 2009): under Putin, Russia has been ruled by a coalition of elites that have refrained from 1990s-style violent infighting because of common unwritten rules on resource distribution. This arrangement is now under strain. The political climate domestically and internationally has changed, resources are shrinking, and the rules for rent distribution are more unclear, all of which increases the infighting. In order to generate growth while retaining political stability, a new agreement on the future course has to be reached by three main elite groups: politically connected big business, leading security services officials, and the top bureaucracy (see Andrei Yakovlev’s article in this issue). The implications are of fundamental concern to the viability of the regime and the Russian “system” writ large. This special issue analyzes the evolution and prospects of Russia’s limited access order and offers case studies of attempts at institutional innovation, its response to social unrest, technology-driven change, and systemic obstacles to technological (and thereby economic) development.
这期特刊专门讨论俄罗斯政治经济体系的运作,理论上认为这是一种有限准入秩序(North, Wallis, and Weingast, 2009):在普京的统治下,俄罗斯一直由精英联盟统治,由于在资源分配方面有共同的不成文规则,他们避免了上世纪90年代那种暴力内斗。这一安排现在面临压力。国内和国际的政治气候已经发生了变化,资源正在萎缩,租金分配规则更加不明确,所有这些都加剧了内斗。为了在保持政治稳定的同时促进经济增长,三个主要的精英群体必须就未来的进程达成新的协议:政治上有联系的大企业、主要的安全服务官员和最高官僚机构(见安德烈·雅科夫列夫在本期的文章)。这对该政权和整个俄罗斯“体制”的生存能力有着根本性的影响。本期特刊分析了俄罗斯有限准入秩序的演变和前景,并提供了关于制度创新的尝试、对社会动荡的反应、技术驱动的变革以及技术(进而经济)发展的系统性障碍的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
The future has to wait: 5G in Russia and the lack of elite consensus 未来必须等待:俄罗斯的5G和缺乏精英共识
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1967071
Janis Kluge
ABSTRACT Although the rollout of 5G in Russia has been much anticipated by both businesses and the government, progress in the introduction of the new standard came to a standstill by 2021. Key elite groups in business, the federal bureaucracy, and the security apparatus (the siloviki) have failed to agree on the rules for 5G. Major sticking points in the debate are the distribution of radio spectrum, the operators’ business model, and the degree of import substitution for 5G equipment. This article examines the bargaining among different elite actors over the new mobile communications standard. The foundering introduction of 5G illustrates a more general lack of agreement among Russia’s elites about the future direction of Russia’s economy. Negotiations are complicated by shrinking resources, the relative strengthening of the siloviki, and unrealistic aspirations to economic sovereignty in the digital sphere.
尽管俄罗斯企业和政府都对5G的推出寄予厚希望,但到2021年,新标准的引入进展陷入停滞。商界的关键精英团体、联邦官僚机构和安全机构(siloviki)未能就5G的规则达成一致。争论的主要症结在于无线电频谱的分配、运营商的商业模式以及5G设备的进口替代程度。本文考察了不同精英参与者在新的移动通信标准上的讨价还价。5G的推出停滞不前表明,俄罗斯精英阶层对俄罗斯经济的未来方向普遍缺乏共识。资源的缩减、“西罗维奇”的相对加强,以及对数字领域经济主权的不切实际的渴望,使谈判变得复杂。
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引用次数: 1
A tale of two councils: the changing roles of the security and state councils during the transformation period of modern Russian politics 这是一个关于两个委员会的故事:在现代俄罗斯政治转型时期,安全委员会和国务委员会的角色变化
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1967644
E. Schulmann, M. Galeotti
ABSTRACT There is general agreement that both the Security Council and State Council are significant institutions in Putin’s Russia, but less clarity as to what this means, beyond that each provides opportunities for consultation with specific segments of the elite. Even this modest consensus was confounded in 2020, when both councils seemed to offer potential post-presidential roles for Putin himself, and underwent significant changes. This article describes the legal and administrative evolutions of both bodies, assesses their roles, and considers them from the perspective of a limited access order. It tackles the problem of institutions in undemocratic systems and the thin line between the decorative elements of the political system, and the bodies in which real administrative power is vested. We argue that they have a significant informal role as sites for the negotiation of power and resources and remain potential actors in the ongoing power transformation of the Russian political system.
人们普遍认为,安理会和国务院都是普京统治下的俄罗斯的重要机构,但对于这意味着什么却不太清楚,只是它们都提供了与特定精英阶层进行磋商的机会。即使是这种温和的共识在2020年也受到了干扰,当时两个委员会似乎都为普京本人提供了可能的后总统职位,并发生了重大变化。本文描述了这两个机构的法律和行政演变,评估了它们的作用,并从限制访问秩序的角度对它们进行了考虑。它解决了非民主制度中的制度问题,以及政治制度的装饰元素与实际行政权力被赋予的机构之间的细微界限。我们认为,它们作为权力和资源谈判的场所具有重要的非正式作用,并且在俄罗斯政治体系正在进行的权力转型中仍然是潜在的行动者。
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引用次数: 3
Hybrid surveillance capitalism: Sber’s model for Russia’s modernization 混合监视资本主义:俄罗斯现代化的Sber模式
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1966216
Jardar Østbø
ABSTRACT The article identifies a new model for Russia’s modernization emerging among the “systemic liberals.” Offering politically neutral technological fixes, this model cannot be understood within the traditional democracy/authoritarianism dichotomy. Expanding on Shoshana Zuboff’s theory, the author calls the model hybrid surveillance capitalism. The case study is the transition of Sberbank to a tech company. Sberbank/Sber aims to be the main modernizing force leading Russia to a better future. The author “reverse engineers” Sber's modernization model by analyzing what the company actually does and how it frames its actions. A commercial company, but with state support and majority ownership, Sber competes with the state and even performs de facto state functions. Its search for profits and influence leads not only to an ever-increasing collection of data that are used to modify people’s behavior, leaving an ever-shrinking space for individual agency and even politics, but also to a new model of governance.
摘要本文提出了一种新的俄罗斯现代化模式,它出现在“系统自由主义者”中。这种模式提供了政治中立的技术解决方案,无法在传统的民主/威权主义二分法中理解。在肖莎娜·祖博夫理论的基础上,作者将这种模式称为混合监视资本主义。案例研究是俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行向科技公司的转型。俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的目标是成为引领俄罗斯走向更美好未来的主要现代化力量。作者通过分析该公司的实际工作以及如何制定其行动来“逆向工程”Sber的现代化模型。Sber是一家商业公司,但在国家的支持和多数股权下,它与国家竞争,甚至履行事实上的国家职能。它对利润和影响力的追求不仅导致了用于改变人们行为的数据收集的不断增加,为个人机构甚至政治留下了越来越小的空间,还导致了一种新的治理模式。
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引用次数: 2
Dysfunctional orders: Russia’s rubbish protests and Putin’s limited access order 功能失调的命令:俄罗斯的垃圾抗议和普京的限制访问令
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2021.1968219
G. Flikke
ABSTRACT How do regimes based on limited access orders respond to socially driven discontent? What are the drivers of contentious politics in a state where the authorities assert control over society? This article analyses patterns of protest, repertories, and organization of the “rubbish protests” (musornye protesty) – a phrase coined by the Internet news outlet Zona Media during the Moscow region protests of 2018–2019. The article draws on social movement theories to explain mobilization, framing, and regime repression, and engages with the model of limited access orders to flesh out the specifics of interaction between social protest forces and the Putin regime. Finally, the case is used to tentatively classify the Russian regime as a “dysfunctional” order – where grievance communication and petitioning to the head of state evolves from being an opportunity to being curtailed by bureaucratic red tape and political repression.
摘要基于限制访问令的政权如何应对社会驱动的不满?在一个当局声称控制社会的州,有争议的政治驱动因素是什么?本文分析了“垃圾抗议”(musornye抗议者)的抗议模式、剧目和组织——这是互联网新闻媒体Zona Media在2018年至2019年莫斯科地区抗议活动中创造的一个短语。这篇文章借鉴了社会运动理论来解释动员、框架和政权镇压,并采用有限准入令模型来充实社会抗议力量与普京政权之间互动的细节。最后,该案例被用来暂时将俄罗斯政权归类为一个“功能失调”的秩序——在这个秩序中,向国家元首申诉和请愿从一个机会演变为被官僚繁文缛节和政治镇压所限制。
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引用次数: 1
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Post-Soviet Affairs
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