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Population-level estimate of bicycle use and fatality risk in a data-poor setting. 在数据贫乏的环境中对自行车使用和死亡风险的人口水平估计。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 Epub Date: 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2172737
Rahul Goel

Lack of data on exposure for walking and cycling poses a significant barrier to understanding the injury risk of these road users. Though this data paucity is most prevalent across low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), it remains a challenge in many high-income countries as well. A new and simple method has been proposed to estimate population-level cycling distance travelled, with New Delhi, India as a case study. I used two independent estimates to calculate this distance. First, a ratio of motorcycle volume counts to that of cycle volume counts across major roads, and second, the total annual distance travelled by motorcycles. I validate this method using data from London, where cycling distance estimates are available from city-wide traffic volume counts as well as household travel survey. Combining the distance estimates with annual fatalities of corresponding road users, I found that cyclists have about 2 times greater fatality risk per kilometre than motorcycle occupants and about 40 times greater risk than car occupants. To encourage greater use of cycling, there is an urgent need to narrow this gap between the safety of cyclists and that of car occupants. The proposed method can be used to monitor cycling usage and its risk for many settings where traffic surveillance systems do not exist.

缺乏步行和骑自行车暴露的数据,对了解这些道路使用者的受伤风险构成了重大障碍。尽管这种数据匮乏在中低收入国家最为普遍,但在许多高收入国家,这仍然是一个挑战。以印度新德里为例,提出了一种新的简单方法来估计人口水平的自行车行驶距离。我用两个独立的估计值来计算这个距离。首先,摩托车交通量与主要道路上自行车交通量的比率,其次,摩托车每年行驶的总距离。我使用伦敦的数据验证了这种方法,伦敦的自行车距离估计可以从全市交通量统计和家庭出行调查中获得。将距离估计值与相应道路使用者的年死亡人数相结合,我发现骑自行车的人每公里的死亡风险是摩托车使用者的2倍,是汽车使用者的40倍。为了鼓励更多地使用自行车,迫切需要缩小骑自行车者和汽车乘客安全之间的差距。所提出的方法可用于在许多不存在交通监控系统的环境中监测自行车的使用情况及其风险。
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引用次数: 1
Effectiveness of first-aid education in road traffic crashes on non-healthcare professionals' knowledge, attitude, and skills: a systematic review. 道路交通事故中急救教育对非卫生保健专业人员的知识、态度和技能的影响:系统评价
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2210554
Christine Ufashingabire Minani, Kim Lam Soh, Manaf Rosliza Abdul, Kulanthayan K C Mani, Buhari Ibrahim, Ahmed Mohamed Dirie, Kim Geok Soh

This review aimed to evaluate and synthesize information on the effects of first-aid education in road traffic crashes on knowledge, attitudes, and skills among non-healthcare professionals. A qualitative study was designed according to the Prepared Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) standards to evaluate three outcomes, knowledge, skills, and attitude. The search strategy was performed in five databases (Science Direct, Scopus, CINAHL Plus, PubMed, and Google Scholar) to retrieve primary studies published between January 2011 and December 2021. In addition, the full texts of randomized controlled trials conducted on adults were included. Among the 2,399 articles retrieved from the databases, 2,388 were discarded, and only five studies met the inclusion criteria and were used in the final analysis and synthesis. Three of the five studies suggested that knowledge and skills are crucial in differentiating outcome factors between intervention and control groups regarding the effectiveness of first aid education. However, two studies on attitude and behaviour toward first-aid found no discernible change between the intervention and the control group. Therefore, our review revealed that only a well-structured first aid education is crucial to leverage the knowledge and skills of non-healthcare professionals before first aid provision, not attitude or behaviours.

本综述旨在评价和综合有关道路交通事故急救教育对非卫生保健专业人员的知识、态度和技能的影响的信息。根据系统评价和荟萃分析的准备报告项目(PRISMA)标准设计了一项定性研究,以评估知识、技能和态度三个结果。在五个数据库(Science Direct、Scopus、CINAHL Plus、PubMed和Google Scholar)中执行搜索策略,检索2011年1月至2021年12月发表的主要研究。此外,还包括了对成人进行的随机对照试验的全文。在从数据库中检索到的2399篇文章中,2388篇被丢弃,只有5篇研究符合纳入标准,并被用于最终的分析和综合。五项研究中有三项表明,知识和技能对于区分干预组和对照组之间关于急救教育有效性的结果因素至关重要。然而,两项关于急救态度和行为的研究发现,干预组和对照组之间没有明显的变化。因此,我们的回顾显示,只有结构良好的急救教育对在提供急救之前利用非医疗保健专业人员的知识和技能至关重要,而不是态度或行为。
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引用次数: 1
Predictors of self-harm and emergency department attendance for self-harm in deprived communities. 贫困社区自残和急诊出勤率的预测因素。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2204474
Molly McCarthy, Pooja Saini, Rajan Nathan, Jason McIntyre

Emergency departments (EDs) are often the first point of contact for individuals following self-harm. The majority of previous research relies on hospital-based data, yet only a minority of individuals who self-harm in the community present to healthcare services. The study design is cross-sectional survey design. Data from the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast (NIHR ARC NWC) Household Health Survey, a community-based public health survey in North West England, was collected using stratified random sampling. Three thousand four hundred twelve people were recruited in 2018 from relatively disadvantaged areas. The sample included 1490 men and 1922 women aged 18 to 100 years (M=49.37, SD=18.91). Logistic regression analysis was employed to examine demographic, health and socioeconomic predictors of self-harm and ED attendance for self-harm. Age (18-24 years), lower financial status, depression, anxiety and physical and mental health co-morbidity was associated with significantly higher levels of self-harm. People aged 18-24 years, with physical and mental health co-morbidity and lower levels of social support had significantly higher levels of attending EDs for self-harm. Improving people's financial situations, social connectivity, mental and physical health may help to reduce individual risk for self-harm and strain on health services.

急救部门(ed)通常是个人自残后的第一个接触点。以前的大多数研究都依赖于医院的数据,然而只有少数在社区中自残的人会去医疗服务机构。本研究设计为横断面调查设计。采用分层随机抽样的方法收集来自英国西北地区国家卫生研究所应用研究合作组织西北海岸家庭健康调查(NIHR ARC NWC)的数据。2018年,从相对贫困地区招募了3,412人。样本包括1490名男性和1922名女性,年龄在18至100岁之间(M = 49.37, SD = 18.91)。采用Logistic回归分析来检验自残的人口学、健康和社会经济预测因素以及自残的急诊就诊情况。年龄(18-24岁)、经济状况较差、抑郁、焦虑和身心健康共发病与自残水平显著升高相关。年龄在18-24岁、身心健康共患病、社会支持水平较低的人因自残而到急诊室就诊的比例显著较高。改善人们的财务状况、社会联系、身心健康可能有助于减少个人自残风险和卫生服务的压力。
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引用次数: 1
A proactive decision support tool for road safety audit of new highway projects based on crash modification factors and analytical analysis: Algeria as a case study. 基于碰撞修正因素和分析分析的新公路项目道路安全审计的前瞻性决策支持工具:以阿尔及利亚为例研究。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2210558
Ramdane Oulha, Abdelhak Derras

The most cost-effective way to improve the performance of a new road is to integrate road safety into the early phase of the project design. Therefore, the information obtained from the design phase is simply used to get an overview of the project in place. This article proposes a simplified analytical tool to target road safety problems proactively, even before inspection visits. The study area contains 110 segments of 100 m long (inspection intervals) of a highway under construction, sited in Algeria in the locality of Ghazaouet, Wilaya of Tlemcen. The methodology adopted consists of combining the International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) and the multiple linear regression method to obtain a simplified analytical model, which allows the prediction of road risk for each section of 100 m. The results obtained showed a 98% correlation between the model values and the real values obtained by the iRAP approach. As a complement to the iRAP method, this approach facilitates the anticipatory assessment of road risks by road safety auditors. Eventually, this tool will support and guide auditors to be acquainted with the recent trends in the domain of road safety.

提高新道路性能的最具成本效益的方法是将道路安全纳入项目设计的早期阶段。因此,从设计阶段获得的信息仅用于获得项目的概况。本文提出了一种简化的分析工具,甚至在检查访问之前就可以主动针对道路安全问题。研究区域包括110段100米长的在建公路(检查间隔),该公路位于阿尔及利亚的Ghazaouet, Wilaya of tlemen地区。采用的方法是将国际道路评估程序(iRAP)与多元线性回归方法相结合,得到一个简化的分析模型,可以对每100 m路段的道路风险进行预测。得到的结果表明,iRAP方法得到的模型值与实际值之间的相关性为98%。作为iRAP方法的补充,这种方法有助于道路安全审计员对道路风险进行预先评估。最终,该工具将支持和指导审核员熟悉道路安全领域的最新趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Differences in single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors: considering temporal shifts and unobserved heterogeneity in prediction. 分心和超速行为引起的单人摩托车碰撞的差异:考虑预测的时间变化和未观察到的异质性。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2200768
Chenzhu Wang, Muhammad Ijaz, Fei Chen, Dongdong Song, Mingyu Hou, Yunlong Zhang, Jianchuan Cheng, Muhammad Zahid

Distraction and overspeed behaviors are acknowledged as two significant contributors to single-vehicle motorcycle crashes, injuries and fatalities resulting from which are severe and critical issues in Pakistan. To explore the temporal instability and differences in the factors determining the injury severities between single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors, this study estimated two groups of random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. Single-vehicle motorcycle crash data in Rawalpindi city between 2017 and 2019 was used for model estimation, and a wide variety of explanatory variables relating to the rider, roadways, environments, and temporal attributes was simulated in the models. The current study considered three possible crash injury severity outcomes: minor injury, severe injury and fatal injury. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to explore the temporal instability and non-transferability. Marginal effects were also calculated to further reveal temporal instability of the variables. Except for several variables, the most significant factors reported temporal instability and non-transferability, manifested as the effects varied from year to year and across different crashes. Moreover, out-of-sample prediction was also implemented to capture temporal instability and non-transferability between distraction and overspeed crash observations. The non-transferability between motorcycle crashes caused by distraction and overspeed behaviors provides insights into developing differentiated countermeasures and policies targeted at preventing and mitigating single-vehicle motorcycle crashes caused by the two risk-taking behaviors.

在巴基斯坦,注意力分散和超速行为被认为是造成单人摩托车撞车、受伤和死亡的两个重要因素,这是严重和关键的问题。为了探讨分心和超速导致的摩托车碰撞伤害严重程度影响因素的时间不稳定性和差异,本研究估计了两组均值和方差均不均匀的随机参数logit模型。使用2017年至2019年拉瓦尔品第市的单人摩托车碰撞数据进行模型估计,并在模型中模拟了与骑手、道路、环境和时间属性相关的各种解释变量。目前的研究考虑了三种可能的碰撞伤害严重程度结果:轻伤,重伤和致命伤害。进行似然比检验以探讨时间不稳定性和不可转移性。还计算了边际效应,以进一步揭示变量的时间不稳定性。除几个变量外,最重要的因素报告了时间不稳定性和不可转移性,表现为每年和不同碰撞的影响不同。此外,还实施了样本外预测,以捕获分心和超速碰撞观测之间的时间不稳定性和不可转移性。分心和超速行为引起的摩托车碰撞事故之间的不可转移性为制定针对预防和减轻两种冒险行为引起的单车摩托车碰撞的差异化对策和政策提供了见解。
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引用次数: 1
Speed heterogeneity and accident reduction in mixed traffic. 混合交通中速度异质性与事故减少。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2172736
Martha Leni Siregar, Tri Tjahjono, Nahry, R Jachrizal Sumabrata

Various studies have investigated the relationship between speed and accidents using different definitions of speed variation. This research considers the speed in mixed traffic as heterogeneous based on the vehicle categories. This research aims to develop a traffic safety model with speed heterogeneity as expressed in accident modification factor (AMF) index. The data types include traffic data, road volumes and geometrics from 18 roads in 8 provinces in Indonesia: Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, NTB, NTT and Bali. The power model is adopted to model the relationship between speed changes and the number of accidents and victims. Change in paratransit speed is significant in predicting all types of AMFs, but the effects are lower than those of the other categories. Truck speed change has the highest impact of fatalities. A 10% decrease in truck speed results in a 29.9% decrease in the number of fatalities, whilst the same 10% decrease in paratransit decreases 17.4% of fatalities. The study resulted in AMF models based on the vehicle speed heterogeneity that could be used in road safety evaluation by looking at the effects of vehicle speed changes in specific categories.

各种研究使用不同的速度变化定义来调查速度和事故之间的关系。本研究考虑混合交通中基于车辆类别的速度是异构的。本研究旨在建立以事故修正因子(AMF)指数表示速度异质性的交通安全模型。数据类型包括来自印度尼西亚8个省的18条道路的交通数据、道路量和几何形状:中苏拉威西、东南苏拉威西、南苏拉威西、西加里曼丹、中加里曼丹、NTB、NTT和巴厘岛。采用功率模型对车速变化与事故数量和伤亡人数之间的关系进行建模。副轨道运行速度的变化对所有类型的AMFs都有显著的预测作用,但对其他类型AMFs的预测作用较低。卡车变速对死亡人数的影响最大。卡车速度每降低10%,死亡人数就会减少29.9%,而辅助交通速度每降低10%,死亡人数就会减少17.4%。研究得出了基于车速异质性的AMF模型,该模型可以通过观察车速变化对特定类别的影响来用于道路安全评估。
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引用次数: 1
Reduction in prevalence of spousal physical violence against women in India: evidence from three national surveys. 印度配偶对妇女的身体暴力发生率降低:来自三项全国调查的证据。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2188468
Melvin Joy, Thenmozhi Mani, L Jeyaseelan, Malavika Babu, Marimuthu S, Shuba Kumar, Rani Mohanraj, Shankar Viswanathan, Shrikant I Bangdiwala

Spousal physical violence (PV) against women is considered to be major health issue in developing countries. Lifetime physical violence is a composite outcome consists of hit, kick, beat, slap and threatened with weapon, perpetrated by the husband. The study aims to examine changes in prevalence and specific risk factors for PV from 1998 to 2016 in India. This study analyzed data from a cross sectional epidemiological survey in 1998-1999, NFHS-3 (2005-2006) and NFHS-4 (2015-2016) data. There was a significant decline of about 10% (95% CI: 8.8%-11.1%) in PV. Major risk factors for change in PV were husband's use of alcohol, illiteracy and socio-economic status of the household. The Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act may have played a role in reducing the PV. Even though there was a decline in PV, actions have to be implemented from the root level to ensure women empowerment.

在发展中国家,配偶对妇女的身体暴力被认为是一个主要的健康问题。终身身体暴力是由丈夫实施的打打、踢打、打耳光和武器威胁构成的复合结果。该研究旨在研究1998年至2016年印度PV患病率和特定风险因素的变化。本研究分析了1998-1999年横断面流行病学调查数据、NFHS-3(2005-2006)和NFHS-4(2015-2016)数据。PV显著下降约10% (95% CI: 8.8%-11.1%)。PV变化的主要危险因素是丈夫饮酒、文盲和家庭的社会经济地位。《保护妇女免受家庭暴力法》可能在减少PV方面发挥了作用。尽管PV有所下降,但必须从基层实施行动,以确保赋予妇女权力。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the effect of road condition and vacation on crash severity using machine learning algorithms. 使用机器学习算法调查道路状况和假期对碰撞严重程度的影响。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2023.2202660
Mohammed Almannaa, Md Nabil Zawad, May Moshawah, Haifa Alabduljabbar

Investigating the contributing factors to traffic crash severity is a demanding topic in research focusing on traffic safety and policies. This research investigates the impact of 16 roadway condition features and vacations (along with the spatial and temporal factors and road geometry) on crash severity for major intra-city roads in Saudi Arabia. We used a crash dataset that covers four years (Oct. 2016 - Feb. 2021) with more than 59,000 crashes. Machine learning algorithms were utilized to predict the crash severity outcome (non-fatal/fatal) for three types of roads: single, multilane, and freeway. Furthermore, features that have a strong impact on crash severity were examined. Results show that only 4 out of 16 road condition variables were found to be contributing to crash severity, namely: paints, cat eyes, fence side, and metal cable. Additionally, vacation was found to be a contributing factor to crash severity, meaning crashes that occur on vacation are more severe than non-vacation days.

研究交通事故严重程度的影响因素是交通安全和政策研究中的一个重要课题。本研究调查了16种道路状况特征和假期(以及时空因素和道路几何形状)对沙特阿拉伯主要城市内道路碰撞严重程度的影响。我们使用了一个涵盖四年(2016年10月至2021年2月)的碰撞数据集,其中有59,000多起碰撞。使用机器学习算法来预测三种类型道路的碰撞严重程度结果(非致命/致命):单车道、多车道和高速公路。此外,还检查了对崩溃严重程度有强烈影响的特征。结果显示,在16个路况变量中,只有4个被发现对碰撞严重程度有影响,即:油漆、猫眼、围栏侧面和金属电缆。此外,研究还发现,假期是导致车祸严重程度的一个因素,这意味着假期发生的车祸比非假期更严重。
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引用次数: 2
Risk reduction via spatial and temporal visualization of road accidents: a way forward for emergency response optimization in developing countries. 通过道路事故的时空可视化减少风险:发展中国家优化应急反应的前进道路。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2022.2164312
Aqsa Qalb, Hafiz Syed Hamid Arshad, Muhammad Shafaat Nawaz, Asra Hafeez

To achieve an effective emergency response and road safety, this study aims to assist a semi-automated dynamic system to analyze and predict the spatial distribution and temporal pattern of road crashes. Kasur, an intermediate city of Pakistan, was selected and data including location, time and reasons of accidents for five years (2014-2018) was utilized. Radar charts, Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, Moran's I spatial auto-correlation, and time series indices were engaged to present temporal, spatial and spatial-temporal variation of accidents, using python-based tools and jupyter notebook. A dynamic user interface was created using Github and Tableau to visualize a real-time zoom-able spatiotemporal variation of accidents. The results explain that out of 12 months, October faces the peak while April sees the least of road accidents. 7am is the peak hour for accidents and the weekends record a significantly higher number of road accidents as compared to weekdays. The city core witnesses the major hotspot areas with huge cluster of accidents. The findings contribute towards a well-informed decision support system, the knowledge of spatial analytics and its application in road safety science, and the preparedness of the rescue agencies for rapid response to reduce the impacts of road accidents.

为了实现有效的应急响应和道路安全,本研究旨在辅助半自动化动态系统分析和预测道路交通事故的空间分布和时间格局。选择巴基斯坦的中间城市Kasur,利用了5年(2014-2018)的事故发生地点、时间和原因等数据。利用基于python的工具和jupyter笔记本,采用雷达图、Getis-Ord Gi*统计量、Moran's I空间自相关和时间序列指数来呈现事故的时间、空间和时空变化。使用Github和Tableau创建了一个动态用户界面,以可视化事故的实时缩放时空变化。研究结果解释说,在12个月中,10月是交通事故的高峰期,而4月是交通事故最少的月份。早上7点是交通事故的高峰时间,而周末的交通事故数量明显高于平日。城市核心区是事故多发的主要热点地区。研究结果有助于建立一个信息灵通的决策支持系统,空间分析知识及其在道路安全科学中的应用,以及救援机构为减少道路事故影响的快速反应做好准备。
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引用次数: 0
A two-phase clustering approach for traffic accident black spots identification: integrated GIS-based processing and HDBSCAN model. 交通事故黑点识别的两阶段聚类方法:基于gis处理和HDBSCAN模型的集成。
IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/17457300.2022.2164309
Dianhai Wang, Yulang Huang, Zhengyi Cai

Identifying black spots effectively and accurately is a pivotal and challenging task to improve road traffic safety. A novel black spot identification model is proposed by integrating the GIS-based processing with hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise. Additionally, the optimal clustering parameters are determined based on an internal validation indicator called the density-based clustering validation index to minimize the impact of subjectivity in parameter selection. The model is validated by collecting 3536 accident data from 1 August to 31 October 2020 in Hangzhou, China, and eventually identifies 39 black spots. The results show that: (1) The number of accidents contained in black spots account for 75% of all accidents, while the length of network in the black spots only account for 23.26% of the total road network length. (2) Compared with the conventional density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise model and K-means model, the proposed model achieves the best performance with more accidents gathered per unit road length. (3) The sample survey with 6 onsite of the identified black spots indicates that the proposed model has high recognition accuracy and recommend these sites for further investigation.

有效、准确地识别黑点是提高道路交通安全水平的关键和具有挑战性的任务。提出了一种新的黑点识别模型,该模型将基于gis的处理与基于分层密度的空间聚类应用相结合。此外,基于内部验证指标——基于密度的聚类验证指标确定最优聚类参数,以最大限度地减少参数选择中的主观性影响。通过收集2020年8月1日至10月31日中国杭州3536起事故数据对模型进行验证,最终识别出39个黑点。结果表明:(1)黑点所包含的事故数量占所有事故的75%,而黑点所包含的路网长度仅占路网总长度的23.26%。(2)与基于噪声模型和K-means模型的传统基于密度的空间聚类应用相比,该模型在单位道路长度上聚集的事故数量较多,性能最佳。(3)对识别出的黑点进行了6个地点的抽样调查,表明本文模型具有较高的识别精度,可以推荐这些地点进行进一步调查。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
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