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Understanding Mistrust and Instability in East Asia 理解东亚的不信任与不稳定
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022953595
J. Chun
In recent years, East Asian countries have faced numerous security threats, including territorial disputes in the East China Sea, the US-China conflict, and economic turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Under such circumstances, a stable regional order and economic prosperity are crucial. This essay reviews three recent books that attempt to identify the distinct features of East Asian international relations and the main causes of regional instability. The first part of this essay addresses the main themes and contributions of each book, and o ers an evaluation of their implications. The second section focuses on two key themes touched on in each of the books: "China and East Asian regional order" and "history still matters." The conclusion presents the challenges to, and provides recommendations for, peaceful coexistence in East Asia. This review elucidates not only the distinct features of current Sino-Japanese relations and East Asia's international politics but also addresses the future of the region.
近年来,东亚国家面临诸多安全威胁,包括东海领土争端、美中冲突以及新冠肺炎疫情造成的经济动荡。在这种情况下,稳定的地区秩序和经济繁荣至关重要。本文回顾了最近出版的三本书,试图找出东亚国际关系的鲜明特征和地区不稳定的主要原因。本文的第一部分论述了每本书的主要主题和贡献,并对其含义进行了评估。第二部分集中讨论了每本书中涉及的两个关键主题:“中国与东亚地区秩序”和“历史仍然重要”。结论提出了东亚和平共处的挑战,并提出了建议。这篇综述不仅阐述了当前中日关系和东亚国际政治的鲜明特点,而且还阐述了该地区的未来。
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引用次数: 1
Violence and Impunity: Democratic Backsliding in the Philippines and the 2022 Elections 暴力和有罪不罚:菲律宾民主倒退和2022年选举
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022953575
S. Iglesias
As president from 2016 to 2022, Rodrigo Duterte captured the judiciary, dominated the legislature, attacked the media, and presided over a campaign of mass killing, leaving an estimated 30,000 alleged drug criminals dead. Despite wielding vast amounts of power, Duterte stepped down after the national elections on May 9, 2022 in a largely peaceful transfer of power to Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son and namesake of the former dictator deposed in 1986. Why did Duterte amass power without causing full democratic collapse into authoritarian rule? The Philippines experienced backsliding to competitive authoritarianism: while elections remain free and somewhat fair, other features of democracy like civil liberties and political freedoms have eroded badly because of mass violence. The Philippine case demonstrates the autocratizing e ect of an emerging form of political violence: a focused campaign of state terror that produces fear and electoral success. I present evidence from two cases—the national "war on drugs" and its local antecedent in Davao City—to explain how violence escalates, provokes accountability, evades culpability, and contributes to democratic backsliding without immediate collapse to authoritarianism. With the election of Marcos Jr., the impunity of the former incumbent is likely to become institutionalized, and democratic backsliding is unlikely to be reversed.
罗德里戈·杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)在2016年至2022年担任总统期间,控制了司法机构,主导了立法机构,攻击了媒体,并主持了一场大规模杀戮运动,估计造成3万名涉嫌毒品犯罪者死亡。尽管拥有大量权力,杜特尔特还是在2022年5月9日的全国选举后下台,基本上是和平地将权力移交给小费迪南德·马科斯,他是1986年被废黜的前独裁者的儿子和同名者。为什么杜特尔特在没有导致民主全面崩溃成为独裁统治的情况下积聚权力?菲律宾经历了向竞争性威权主义的倒退:虽然选举仍然是自由和公平的,但由于大规模暴力,公民自由和政治自由等民主的其他特征已经受到严重侵蚀。菲律宾的案件表明了一种新出现的政治暴力形式的独裁效应:一场集中的国家恐怖运动,产生恐惧并在选举中取得成功。我提供了两个案例的证据——全国“禁毒战争”及其在达沃市的地方先例——来解释暴力如何升级、引发问责、逃避罪责,并在不立即崩溃为威权主义的情况下导致民主倒退。随着小马科斯的当选,前现任总统有罪不罚的现象可能会制度化,民主倒退的趋势不太可能逆转。
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引用次数: 3
Mobilized and Polarized: Social Media and Disinformation Narratives in the 2022 Philippine Elections 动员和两极分化:2022年菲律宾大选中的社交媒体和虚假信息叙事
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022953549
A. Arugay, Justin Keith A. Baquisal
Social media played a significant role in the 2022 Philippine national elections. Using various empirical sources, including an original pre-electoral survey, we argue that social media was critical in the production, transmission, and reception of election-related information and narratives that resulted in o ine and online polarization and mobilization of Filipino voters in the 2022 elections. This article discusses the role of social media in electoral politics in the Philippines relative to other factors, such as material incentives for political partisans, prior voting behavior patterns, information consumption, and long-standing grievances. We discuss how these factors inform social media's role in mobilizing and polarizing the Philippine electorate. We also unpack the leading disinformation narratives of authoritarian nostalgia, conspiracy theory, strongman leadership, and democratic disillusionment, which fueled support for Marcos Jr. and undermined the other candidates. In conclusion, this article discusses the implications of disinformation in the 2022 elections for the post-electoral political engagement of Filipinos and its contribution to the further political dysfunction of Philippine democracy.
社交媒体在2022年菲律宾全国大选中发挥了重要作用。利用各种经验来源,包括一项原始的选举前调查,我们认为社交媒体在选举相关信息和叙事的生产、传播和接受方面至关重要,这些信息和叙事导致了2022年选举中菲律宾选民的在线和在线两极分化和动员。本文讨论了社交媒体在菲律宾选举政治中的作用,以及其他因素,如政治党派的物质激励、先前的投票行为模式、信息消费和长期的不满。我们将讨论这些因素如何影响社交媒体在动员和分化菲律宾选民中的作用。我们还揭示了对威权主义的怀旧、阴谋论、强人领导和民主幻灭的主要虚假叙述,这些叙述助长了对小马科斯的支持,并削弱了其他候选人。总之,本文讨论了2022年选举中虚假信息对菲律宾人选举后政治参与的影响及其对菲律宾民主进一步政治功能障碍的贡献。
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引用次数: 8
Uncoupling Conceptual Understandings and Political Preferences: A Study of Democratic Attitudes among Singapore's Highly Educated Young People 概念理解与政治偏好脱钩——新加坡高学历青年民主态度研究
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022953497
Norma Osterberg-Kaufmann, Kay Key Teo
Democracy is subject to constant and seemingly interminable contestation in academic and policy contexts, and yet, empirically and methodologically robust analysis of what the term means in practice for actual citizens has remained an area of relative lacuna. Admittedly, large-N surveys have attempted to address this research gap by examining attitudes to numerous components of democracy, but without the fine-grained detail required to overcome simply reproducing the focus on liberal procedural, Western precedent-based, top-down approaches to understanding such a complex and varied political system. This article proposes a methodological approach, based on the requirements of comparative political theory and research into how people view democracy. This allows us to explore political attitudes and the meaning of democracy with a bottom-up approach using the methods of repertory grid and in-depth interviews. Singapore is a particularly exciting case for comparative political science: although it has all the advantageous conditions that, according to classic modernization theory, promote the development of democracy, it is still not a democracy. To what extent will the conceptualization of democracy by citizens in a country like Singapore resemble theoretical definitions, and how suitable do they consider democracy to be for Singapore? What are their expectations for a good government or regime? This article examines what highly educated Singaporeans, ranging in age from their twenties to their forties, think about democracy. In doing so, the article also pursues the goal of comparing methods between repertory grid interviews and in-depth interviews in order to work out potential interfaces, and points of connection, between the two methods to allow for the most productive research outcomes. We find that, conceptually, these Singaporeans' perceptions of democracy appeared very similar to what is usually discussed as electoral democracy in established literature. When evaluating the performance of a government or a regime, however, liberal ideas of freedom and fairness competed with more pragmatic approaches that reflect the principles of progress and success as well as community and performance-focused orientations. As a result, our respondents did not prioritize democratic practices as much as other aspects of governance like e ciency. Our findings on the influence of state ideology on highly educated young people in Singapore strengthen the arguments of political myth as an integration and legitimization strategy in autocratic regimes and democratizing strong states or regimes with a particularly pronounced ideological hegemony.
民主在学术和政策背景下不断受到似乎无休止的争论,然而,从经验和方法上对这个词在实践中对实际公民意味着什么的有力分析仍然是一个相对空白的领域。诚然,大N调查试图通过调查对民主的许多组成部分的态度来解决这一研究差距,但没有所需的细粒度细节,只是简单地再现了对自由程序、西方先例、自上而下的方法的关注,以理解这样一个复杂多样的政治体系。本文提出了一种方法论方法,基于比较政治理论的要求,研究人们如何看待民主。这使我们能够使用剧目网格和深度访谈的方法,以自下而上的方式探索政治态度和民主的意义。新加坡是比较政治学的一个特别令人兴奋的例子:根据经典的现代化理论,尽管它拥有促进民主发展的所有有利条件,但它仍然不是一个民主国家。在新加坡这样的国家,公民对民主的概念化在多大程度上类似于理论定义,他们认为民主对新加坡有多合适?他们对一个好政府或政权的期望是什么?这篇文章探讨了年龄从20多岁到40多岁的受过高等教育的新加坡人对民主的看法。在这样做的过程中,本文还追求比较储备网格访谈和深度访谈之间的方法的目标,以找出这两种方法之间的潜在接口和联系点,从而获得最有成效的研究结果。我们发现,从概念上讲,这些新加坡人对民主的看法似乎与传统文献中通常讨论的选举民主非常相似。然而,在评估政府或政权的表现时,自由和公平的自由思想与反映进步和成功原则以及以社区和表现为重点的更务实的方法相竞争。因此,我们的受访者没有像效率等治理的其他方面那样优先考虑民主实践。我们关于国家意识形态对新加坡受过高等教育的年轻人的影响的研究结果,强化了政治神话作为专制政权中的一种整合和合法化策略,以及使强大的国家或意识形态霸权特别明显的政权民主化的论点。
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引用次数: 2
Evolution of Our Times: Developing Democratic Identities in Hong Kong and Taiwan 时代的演变:香港和台湾民主认同的发展
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022953441
J. I. Chong, Hsin-Hsin Pan
Two trends have become increasingly apparent from public opinion polls in Taiwan and Hong Kong over the past decade. One is a growing identification with and confidence in being exclusively Taiwanese or Hong Konger. The other is increasing public support for democracy. Existing research investigates the association between local identity and democracy, but does not address the meanings people in Taiwan and Hong Kong ascribe to their identities. This limits a fuller understanding of the relationships and driving forces between and behind these trends. One interpretation is that demands for greater democracy mask growing nativism, even xenophobia. An alternative one is that heightened local identification reflects aspirations for greater political participation and restraint on executive authority in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Using discourse analysis collected through the Making Identities Count in Asia project, alongside polling data, we submit that elite and mass discourse reveal an integration of democratic expectations with local identity and its broadening appeal in Taiwan and Hong Kong. People in these two societies take principles associated with democracy to be closely tied to their sense of identification and locality. Such ideas do not eschew the value of tradition rooted in local experiences and can outweigh economic growth. However, Hong Kongers and Taiwanese have come to identify substantively more with democracy than the exceptionalism implied in "localism," "Asian values," or some form of nativism. PRC attempts to appeal to local concerns in Taiwan and Hong Kong need to grapple with either meaningful respect for democratic aspirations or e ectively repressing them. PRC insistence on the erasure of such values will likely result in continued tensions with Taiwan and Hong Kong, and include mass resistance and the need for force, even violence.
过去10年,台湾和香港的民意调查显示,两种趋势日益明显。其一是对台湾人或香港人身份的认同和信心日益增强。另一个是公众对民主的支持日益增加。现有的研究调查了地方认同与民主之间的关系,但没有涉及台湾和香港人赋予其身份的意义。这限制了对这些趋势之间和背后的关系和驱动力的更全面理解。一种解释是,对更大民主的要求掩盖了日益增长的本土主义,甚至是仇外心理。另一种解释是,增强的地方认同反映了台湾和香港对更多政治参与和限制行政权力的渴望。通过“亚洲身份认同”项目收集的话语分析,以及民意调查数据,我们认为精英和大众话语揭示了民主期望与本地身份的融合,以及其在台湾和香港日益扩大的吸引力。这两个社会的人民把与民主有关的原则与他们的身份和地方意识紧密联系在一起。这些想法并没有回避根植于当地经验的传统价值,而且可能超过经济增长。然而,香港人和台湾人更认同民主,而不是“地方主义”、“亚洲价值观”或某种形式的本土主义所隐含的例外主义。中国试图吸引台湾和香港当地的关注,需要努力解决对民主愿望的切实尊重或有效压制的问题。中国坚持消除这些价值观可能会导致与台湾和香港的持续紧张关系,包括大规模抵抗和武力,甚至暴力的需要。
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引用次数: 0
The Art of Thai Diplomacy: Parables of Alliance 泰国外交艺术:同盟寓言
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022952227
Ryan Ashley, Apichai W. Shipper
This paper argues that a pragmatist theory of international relations, combined with parables of alliance formation from local proverbs and literary classics, best explains the art of Thai diplomacy from a historical perspective. Notably avoiding Western colonization, the Thais have enjoyed relative sovereignty and independence throughout their history. Rather than balancing, bandwagoning, or hedging, our study finds that Thailand has deliberately leveraged asymmetrical partnerships between often-opposed great powers and more symmetrical partnerships with less powerful states and multilateral organizations in order to maintain its physical and identity- based ontological security. We draw our empirical evidence from four historical periods: the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, World War II, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War modern era. Our findings can be applied to other Southeast Asian states and their own parables of alliance.
本文认为,实用主义的国际关系理论与当地谚语和文学经典中的结盟寓言相结合,最能从历史的角度解释泰国外交艺术。值得注意的是,避免了西方的殖民统治,泰国在历史上一直享有相对的主权和独立。我们的研究发现,泰国故意利用经常对立的大国之间的不对称伙伴关系,以及与实力较弱的国家和多边组织之间的更对称伙伴关系,而不是平衡、跟风或对冲,以维持其基于实体和身份的本体论安全。我们从四个历史时期获取经验证据:19世纪和20世纪初、第二次世界大战、冷战和冷战后的现代时代。我们的研究结果可以应用于其他东南亚国家和他们自己的联盟寓言。
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引用次数: 0
The 2022 South Korean Presidential Election and the Gender Divide among the Youth 2022年韩国总统大选与青年性别分化
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022952285
H. Kim, C. Lee
The 2022 South Korean presidential election was the country's most closely contested election since a democratic direct electoral system was initiated in 1987, with less than a 1 percent di erence separating the two major candidates among 34 million votes cast. Despite some parallels with and continuities from previous elections, the 2022 election saw new voting alignments emerge based on one topic: gender equality. In this essay, we explain how and why gender became such a prominent issue during the 2022 election campaign, and how this a ected voting patterns, especially among male and female voters in their twenties and thirties. Specifically, we argue that gendered voter behaviour during the election arose from rising anti-feminist sentiments among young men, and that the two main presidential candidates politicized the issue to maximize support from this group. This in turn triggered the consolidation of a young female voting bloc. Using an original survey conducted in January 2022 with an approximate nationally representative sample of 1,017 respondents, we identify two possible causes of rising anti-feminist sentiments among young men: the belief that women receive preferential treatment in employment opportunities and mandatory military service for men. In addition, through an embedded survey experiment run before the election, we proposed that political candidates with pro-gender messages would be less likely to receive support from young men, while candidates with anti-gender messages would be likely to receive more support; these projections were confirmed by the actual voting breakdowns of the recent election. The results suggest that the new administration must handle gender issues with extreme care to ensure that divergent perceptions of the gender divide do not become further polarized over the next few years, since such a development could very well fuel democratic deconsolidation in South Korea.
2022年韩国总统选举是自1987年启动民主直选制度以来,该国竞争最激烈的一次选举,在3400万张选票中,两位主要候选人的差距不到1%。尽管与前几次选举有一些相似之处和连续性,但在2022年的选举中,基于一个主题出现了新的投票联盟:性别平等。在这篇文章中,我们解释了性别是如何以及为什么在2022年竞选期间成为如此突出的问题,以及这是如何影响投票模式的,尤其是在二三十岁的男性和女性选民中。具体而言,我们认为,选举期间选民的性别行为源于年轻男性中日益高涨的反女权主义情绪,两位主要总统候选人将这一问题政治化,以最大限度地获得这一群体的支持。这反过来又引发了年轻女性投票集团的整合。利用2022年1月对1017名具有全国代表性的受访者进行的一项原始调查,我们确定了年轻男性中反女权主义情绪高涨的两个可能原因:认为女性在就业机会和男性强制服兵役方面受到优待。此外,通过在选举前进行的嵌入式调查实验,我们提出,带有支持性别信息的政治候选人不太可能得到年轻男性的支持,而带有反性别信息的候选人可能会得到更多的支持;最近选举的实际投票情况证实了这些预测。结果表明,新政府必须极其谨慎地处理性别问题,以确保在未来几年内,对性别差距的不同看法不会进一步两极分化,因为这样的发展很可能会助长韩国的民主解体。
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引用次数: 3
Cynical and Celebratory Sensibilities in South Korea's 2022 Presidential Election 韩国2022年总统选举中的讽刺和庆祝情绪
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022952265
Erik Mobrand
Why was South Korea's 2022 presidential election so close, when only a few years prior the party of the winning candidate had been out of contention? The answer can be found by situating the election against a battle between democratic and anti-democratic forces. Anti-democratic forces cynically bid for power by denigrating politics. An examination of how this cynical sensibility developed, from 2016 to 2022, but on the back of a deeper history, points both to what was at stake in this election and to the methods deployed by representatives of the anti-democratic forces that helped create parity in the vote.
为什么2022年韩国总统大选如此接近,而就在几年前,获胜候选人所在的政党还处于无竞争状态?答案可以通过将选举置于民主和反民主力量之间的斗争中来找到。反民主势力玩世不恭地通过诋毁政治来争夺权力。从2016年到2022年,这种愤世嫉俗的情绪是如何发展起来的,但在更深层的历史背景下,我们既指出了这次选举的利害关系,也指出了反民主势力代表所采取的方法,这些方法有助于在投票中创造平等。
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引用次数: 0
Entanglements of Mobility and Immobility: A Review of Eight Documentaries 动与不动的纠缠:八部纪录片回顾
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.5509/2022952309
H. Lynn
Theories and methods to analyze different forms of mobility and related complexities abound. By engaging with eight documentaries dealing with migrations and histories of Asia, this review essay sketches the possibilities of viewing the inextricable linkages between mobilities and immobilities of people, policies, and ideas through the metaphor of quantum entanglement. The essay explains the viewing environments, summarizes the viewed documentaries, and analyzes the visible entanglements of the seemingly contradictory co-presence of movement and stillness.
分析不同形式的流动性及其相关复杂性的理论和方法比比皆是。通过参与八部关于亚洲移民和历史的纪录片,这篇综述文章描绘了通过量子纠缠的隐喻来观察人、政策和思想的流动性和不流动性之间不可分割的联系的可能性。本文解释了观看环境,总结了观看的纪录片,并分析了看似矛盾的动静共存的可见纠缠。
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引用次数: 0
Controlling the Opposition Abroad: Cambodia's Extraterritorial Activities in Long Beach, California 控制海外反对派:柬埔寨在加州长滩的治外法权活动
IF 1.6 4区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.5509/952205
Susan Needham, Schroedel Grubb
This article presents findings from research conducted in Long Beach, California on the history, motives, and functions of the Cambodian People's Party Youth Organization (CPPYO), a network of Cambodians outside the country who support Cambodia's long-time ruling party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP). O cially, the CPPYO, headed by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's son, Hun Manet, was created to promote the current government and to provide political options for Cambodians living abroad. However, many Cambodians in the Long Beach area see the CPP's presence in the US as invasive and as a threat to their autonomy. To understand how the CPPYO functions in Long Beach, we make use of Gerschewski's three pillars of authoritarian stability and Glasius' framework for identifying extraterritorial authoritarian practices. We conclude that the CPPYO is primarily a strategy for repressing opposition abroad, but that it also contributes to the ruling party's legitimacy through the participation of Long Beach Cambodian Americans, who accept the CPP's authoritarian control as a condition for participating in Cambodia's socioeconomic system. This study contributes to a growing body of research interested in identifying and interconnecting the various legitimation processes, strategies, and practices developed by autocracies to stabilize rule at home and abroad.
本文介绍了在加州长滩进行的关于柬埔寨人民党青年组织(CPPYO)的历史、动机和功能的研究结果,CPPYO是一个由海外柬埔寨人组成的网络,他们支持柬埔寨长期执政的柬埔寨人民党(CPP)。在柬埔寨,CPPYO由柬埔寨首相洪森的儿子洪马内(Hun Manet)领导,成立的目的是促进现任政府,并为居住在国外的柬埔寨人提供政治选择。然而,长滩地区的许多柬埔寨人认为CPP在美国的存在是一种入侵,是对他们自治的威胁。为了理解CPPYO在长滩的运作方式,我们利用Gerschewski的威权稳定的三大支柱和Glasius的框架来识别域外威权实践。我们的结论是,CPPYO主要是一种压制海外反对派的策略,但它也通过长滩柬埔寨裔美国人的参与为执政党的合法性做出了贡献,这些人接受CPP的威权控制作为参与柬埔寨社会经济体系的条件。这项研究有助于越来越多的研究机构对识别和联系专制国家为稳定国内外统治而制定的各种合法化过程、战略和实践感兴趣。
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引用次数: 1
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Pacific Affairs
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