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Testing Keynes’ aggregate investment function 检验凯恩斯的总投资函数
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-23 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1932524
J. Harvey
Abstract In Keynes’ model, no variety of private sector spending plays a more critical role than investment. This is so because reaching full employment requires that it be large enough to offset the volume of saving that would be forthcoming at that level of economic activity, which occurs only rarely and by coincidence. Despite its key role, very few Post Keynesians have undertaken empirical studies of Keynes’ approach (as opposed to one based on Keynes). While I suspect that there are a number of reasons for this, perhaps the greatest stumbling block is one related to data: how do we measure not just investors’ expectations, but the difference between what was expected and what actually transpired? I believe I have developed a defensible solution to this problem, one that not only allows for a more direct test of Keynes’ theory but also offers tremendous support for it.
在凯恩斯的模型中,没有任何一种私人部门支出比投资发挥更关键的作用。之所以如此,是因为要实现充分就业,就必须足够大,以抵消在该经济活动水平上即将出现的储蓄量,而这种情况很少出现,而且纯属巧合。尽管它扮演着关键角色,但很少有后凯恩斯主义者对凯恩斯的方法进行实证研究(而不是基于凯恩斯的方法)。虽然我怀疑造成这种情况的原因有很多,但最大的障碍可能与数据有关:我们如何不仅衡量投资者的预期,而且衡量预期与实际发生的情况之间的差异?我相信我已经为这个问题提出了一个站得住脚的解决方案,这个解决方案不仅可以更直接地检验凯恩斯的理论,而且还为它提供了巨大的支持。
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引用次数: 2
Stephen King’s "Needful Things": a dystopian vision of capitalism during its triumph 史蒂芬·金的《必需品》:资本主义胜利时期的反乌托邦景象
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1932525
M. Cedrini, J. Dagnes, Ç. Akdere
Abstract In Stephen King’s horror novel Needful Things, a stranger comes to town and opens a shop wherein any inhabitant can find exactly the thing s/he desires most, in exchange for playing “pranks” that cause distress to other members of the community, until the whole town is caught in a war of all against all. The paper analyses the novel as a “satire of Reaganomics,” as the author himself happened to describe it. Using insights from economics, economic sociology, and economic anthropology, it aims at demonstrating that the book provides an opportunity to explore the actual and possible evolution of individual behavior in consumer societies, as well as the tensions that such societies engender between ideals of self-realization (via market logics and consumption) and social relationships.
在斯蒂芬·金的恐怖小说《必需品》中,一个陌生人来到小镇,开了一家商店,在那里任何居民都可以找到他最想要的东西,作为交换,他会玩“恶作剧”,给社区的其他成员造成痛苦,直到整个小镇陷入一场人人反对人人的战争。这篇论文将这部小说分析为“对里根经济学的讽刺”,正如作者自己所描述的那样。本书利用经济学、经济社会学和经济人类学的见解,旨在证明本书提供了一个机会,可以探索消费社会中个人行为的实际和可能的演变,以及这种社会在自我实现的理想(通过市场逻辑和消费)与社会关系之间产生的紧张关系。
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引用次数: 1
Output gap, participation and minimum income: a proposal for Italy 产出缺口、参与率和最低收入:给意大利的建议
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-21 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1913752
Giacomo Bracci, Walter Paternesi Meloni, P. Tridico
Abstract Recently, some attempts to increase the stance for fiscal policies in the European budgetary framework have followed the line of reducing the estimated “structural” unemployment rate (NAIRU), with the ensuing increase in the computation of the output gap. A similar effect can be obtained by increasing the actual participation rate. In this paper, we propose the introduction of a deficit-financed conditional minimum income (CMI) to discouraged people which are outside the labor force. By stimulating participation, this measure would bring about an upward revision of Italy’s potential output, and this in turn will contribute to generate a greater fiscal stance. We empirically assess the reliability of this measure by using both comparative statics and empirical estimations carried out via the simulation procedure used by the Output Gaps Working Group of the European Commission. Assuming one million newcomers in the labor force, our findings indicate that the measure would have produced a greater fiscal space of approximately €19 billion in 2016 and €12 billion in 2017. We also forecast the impact of the introduction of the deficit-financed CMI on real GDP and public finance indicators. We finally discuss the feasibility and the main criticisms of the proposal.
最近,一些试图在欧洲预算框架中增加财政政策立场的尝试遵循了降低估计的“结构性”失业率(NAIRU)的路线,随之而来的是增加产出缺口的计算。通过提高实际参与率可以获得类似的效果。在本文中,我们建议引入赤字融资的有条件最低收入(CMI),以鼓励劳动力之外的气馁人群。通过刺激参与,这一措施将使意大利的潜在产出向上修正,而这反过来将有助于形成更大的财政立场。我们通过使用比较静力学和通过欧盟委员会产出差距工作组使用的模拟程序进行的经验估计来经验性地评估这一措施的可靠性。假设有100万新劳动力,我们的研究结果表明,该措施将在2016年产生约190亿欧元的财政空间,在2017年产生120亿欧元的财政空间。我们还预测了引入赤字融资CMI对实际GDP和公共财政指标的影响。我们最后讨论了该建议的可行性和主要批评。
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引用次数: 0
In defence of the nominalist ontology of money 为唯名论的货币本体论辩护
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1913755
G. Ingham
Abstract “Historicizing the money of account: a critique of the nominalist ontology of money” (Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 3, 43) argues that “money itself” is always something more than money of account; that nominalists mistakenly believe that Keynes shared their position; and that money of account is historically specific to medieval Europe. This response contends that the case is based on misinterpretation, misunderstanding, and imprecise arguments.
摘要《记帐货币的历史化:对唯名论货币本体论的批判》(《后凯恩斯主义经济学杂志》第3期,第43期)认为,“货币本身”总是比记帐货币更重要的东西;唯名论者错误地认为凯恩斯与他们立场相同;而这种记帐货币在历史上是中世纪欧洲特有的。这种回应认为,该案件是基于误解、误解和不精确的论点。
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引用次数: 2
Moral hazard in a modern federation 现代联邦的道德风险
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1872031
Alex T. Williams
Abstract Arguments against providing fiscal aid to state governments usually rely on a simplistic moral hazard argument: supporting states through a cyclical downturn encourages them to overspend. This argument undergirds the policy recommendations made by the mainstream literature on Fiscal Federalism. I argue that these accounts are predicated on a misunderstanding of what it means to be an agent with respect to one’s budget over the business cycle. Basic corporate finance theory teaches us that in order to have control over the relative movement of income and expenditure in the current period, one must be able to design one’s own capital structure. US State governments are institutionally and constitutionally prevented from designing their own capital structures, and as such, cannot be judged to have budgetary agency across the business cycle. I show that the moral hazard problem presented in the fiscal finance literature is ill-posed, and obscures a second, more important problem of moral hazard. Namely, that politicians at the federal level reap the political rewards of pursuing austerity at the state level while remaining insulated from any political, economic, or social costs or responsibility. This second moral hazard problem admits of a simple solution: trigger-based fiscal aid to state governments.
摘要反对向州政府提供财政援助的论点通常基于一种简单的道德风险论点:支持各州度过周期性衰退会鼓励它们超支。这一论点支持了主流财政联邦主义文献提出的政策建议。我认为,这些账目是基于对作为一名代理人在整个商业周期内的预算意味着什么的误解。基本的公司财务理论告诉我们,为了控制当期收入和支出的相对变动,必须能够设计自己的资本结构。美国各州政府在制度和宪法上被禁止设计自己的资本结构,因此,不能被判断为在整个商业周期中拥有预算代理权。我表明,财政金融文献中提出的道德风险问题是不合理的,并掩盖了第二个更重要的道德风险的问题。也就是说,联邦一级的政客们在州一级追求紧缩政策的同时获得政治回报,同时与任何政治、经济或社会成本或责任隔绝。第二个道德风险问题承认了一个简单的解决方案:向州政府提供基于触发因素的财政援助。
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引用次数: 1
Can state and local government capital spending be a vehicle for countercyclical policy? Evidence from new interview and survey data 州和地方政府的资本支出能成为反周期政策的工具吗?来自新访谈和调查数据的证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1875246
Amanda Page-Hoongrajok
Abstract This paper investigates the extent to which state and local government capital spending in the United States can be an effective vehicle for countercyclical policy. Policy responses to recent cyclical downturns have included a variety of policies to encourage greater spending at the state and local level, including efforts to lower borrowing costs for these governments, but the effectiveness of these policies remains unclear. To examine the effectiveness of state-local capital spending as a countercyclical tool, I use a unique data set consisting of open-ended interviews with state and local budget officers and a survey of state governments. I find that at present, there are significant barriers preventing countercyclical state-local capital spending. First, interventions to stimulate capital spending via easing financing conditions are likely limited by two factors: some governments use minimal amounts of borrowing to finance capital spending, and for governments that do rely primarily on borrowing, capital spending appears insensitive to interest rates. Second, state and local capital spending decisions involve substantial lags, making it a poor vehicle for countercyclical fiscal policy even in the absence of financing constraints. Third, state-local budget officials do not view capital spending as a tool for economic stabilization.
摘要本文调查了美国州和地方政府资本支出在多大程度上可以成为反周期政策的有效工具。应对最近周期性衰退的政策包括鼓励在州和地方层面增加支出的各种政策,包括努力降低这些政府的借贷成本,但这些政策的有效性尚不清楚。为了检验州-地方资本支出作为反周期工具的有效性,我使用了一个独特的数据集,包括对州和地方预算官员的开放式采访以及对州政府的调查。我发现,目前,存在着阻碍反周期州地方资本支出的重大障碍。首先,通过放松融资条件刺激资本支出的干预措施可能受到两个因素的限制:一些政府使用最低限度的借贷来为资本支出融资,而对于主要依赖借贷的政府来说,资本支出似乎对利率不敏感。其次,州和地方的资本支出决策涉及相当大的滞后性,即使在没有融资限制的情况下,它也不是反周期财政政策的有效工具。第三,州和地方预算官员并不认为资本支出是稳定经济的工具。
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引用次数: 0
A passionate craftsman and his craft: reflections on Wynne Godley’s work and legacy 一个充满激情的工匠和他的手艺:反思韦恩·戈德利的工作和遗产
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1840282
Claudio H. Dos Santos
Abstract The text has three main goals. The first is to share some of the author’s personal recollections on (briefly) working as Wynne Godley’s research assistant. The second is to reflect on the origins of the term/brand “stock-flow consistent” (or SFC, for insiders), which is at once successful (given the number of people who seem to like using it) and controversial. The third and most important is to reflect on Wynne Godley’s approach to macroeconomics—however, one wants to call it—and legacy.
摘要本文有三个主要目标。第一部分是分享作者(简要)担任Wynne Godley研究助理的一些个人回忆。第二个是反思“股票流动一致性”(SFC,内部人士)一词/品牌的起源,它既成功(考虑到喜欢使用它的人数),又有争议。第三个也是最重要的是反思Wynne Godley的宏观经济学方法——然而,有人想称之为——以及遗产。
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引用次数: 0
The stabilizing role of the government in a dynamic distribution growth model 政府在动态分配增长模型中的稳定作用
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1835495
S. Bibi
Abstract This work builds upon “Keynes, Kalecki and Metzler in a Dynamic Distribution Model”. In that paper the dynamics of an economy from the ultra-short to the short period inside a Post-Keynesian perspective were studied questioning the general shared assumption of equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the short and long run Kaleckian models. This paper responds to some unresolved issues of the model proposed there considering a proper analysis of the Kaleckian investment function and a more realistic scenario with the presence of the government sector. Moreover, even if that model tried to deal with firms’ expectations in producing goods, some values boundaries were exogenously established. Here, those boundaries are questioned again. In fact, the novelty of this work is that an active role of the government can actually influence both the values of the expectations and their respective boundaries. It is argued that is particularly the case when the government is engaged in policies which aim is to support and secure a high level of economic activity and to smooth and steer the cycles phases toward a sustainable development path. Particularly we focus on the role of different fiscal policies aimed at obtaining such goals.
本文以《动态分布模型中的凯恩斯、卡莱茨基和梅茨勒》为基础。在这篇论文中,从后凯恩斯主义的角度研究了经济从超短期到短期的动态,质疑了短期和长期卡列肯模型中总需求和总供给均衡的普遍假设。考虑到对Kaleckian投资函数的适当分析和政府部门存在的更现实的情景,本文回应了该模型中一些未解决的问题。此外,即使该模型试图处理企业在生产商品时的期望,一些价值边界也是外生建立的。在这里,这些界限再次受到质疑。事实上,这项工作的新颖之处在于,政府的积极作用实际上可以影响期望的价值和各自的边界。有人认为,当政府从事旨在支持和确保高水平经济活动并使周期阶段走向可持续发展道路的政策时,情况尤其如此。我们特别关注旨在实现这些目标的不同财政政策的作用。
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引用次数: 1
The legacy of Wynne Godley, Wednesday, May 13, 2020: welcome and introduction 韦恩·戈德利的遗产,2020年5月13日,星期三:欢迎和介绍
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1840285
D. Papadimitriou
I want to welcome you to this virtual conference on the occasion of a decade since Wynne Godley’s passing. I want to thank all the speakers for their willingness to either share their memories they have about and with Wynne or talk about Wynne’s influence on their research. And finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t express my sincere appreciation and thanks to Gennaro Zezza who conceived the idea of this gathering, arranged for the speakers and the conference program and all IT details. Most of you know that Wynne was in residence at the Levy Institute for almost fifteen years returning to the U.K. in 2007. He was a forceful and often a critical voice in macroeconomics. His strong view and work, representative of a non-mainstream Keynesian approach to economics and economic policy was nevertheless confirmed time and time again as evidenced in the fortunes of the U.K., U.S. and Eurozone economies. His writings reflecting the sharpness of his mind, the flair of the language and intellectual integrity have had a considerable impact on macroeconomics, and have aroused the interest of scholars, economic journalists and policymakers in both mainstream and alternative thought. In a review of Wynne’s last book with Marc Lavoie (2007), Lance Taylor, of the New School, had this to say: “Wynne’s important contributions are foxy— brilliant innovations ... that feed into the architecture of his models” (2008, 1). Wynne Alexander Hugh Godley was born in London in 1926, was the younger brother of a hereditary Labor peer, and went to school at Rugby and New College at Oxford. His education was influenced by two of his teachers, Isaiah Berlin and P.W.S. Andrews. He pursued a career as an oboist, in the early 1950s, having studied at the Paris Conservatory earning his living as a performer at the St James’ Theater in London and subsequently as principal oboist for the BBC Welsh Orchestra. Eventually, he abandoned his professional career as an artist, but never his love and interest in music practicing the oboe every morning
欢迎大家在韦恩·戈德利逝世十周年之际参加这次虚拟会议。我要感谢所有的演讲者愿意分享他们对Wynne的回忆,或者谈谈Wynne对他们研究的影响。最后,如果我不向Gennaro Zezza表达我诚挚的感谢和感谢,那将是我的失职,他构思了这次聚会的想法,安排了演讲者和会议计划以及所有的IT细节。你们大多数人都知道,韦恩在利维研究所居住了近15年,于2007年回到英国。在宏观经济学中,他是一个强有力的、经常具有批判性的声音。作为非主流凯恩斯主义经济学和经济政策的代表,他的观点和工作一次又一次地得到了证实,这在英国、美国和欧元区经济的命运中得到了证明。他的著作反映了他思想的敏锐,语言的天赋和知识的完整性,对宏观经济学产生了相当大的影响,引起了主流和另类思想的学者,经济记者和政策制定者的兴趣。在评论韦恩与马克•拉沃伊(Marc Lavoie)合著的上一本书(2007年)时,新学院的兰斯•泰勒(Lance Taylor)这样说:“韦恩的重要贡献是狡猾的——出色的创新……怀恩·亚历山大·休·戈德利1926年出生于伦敦,是一位世袭工党贵族的弟弟,曾就读于拉格比大学和牛津大学新学院。他的教育受到他的两位老师,以赛亚·伯林和P.W.S.安德鲁斯的影响。20世纪50年代初,他在巴黎音乐学院学习,在伦敦圣詹姆斯剧院担任表演者,随后担任BBC威尔士管弦乐团的首席双簧管演奏家,并以此谋生。最终,他放弃了艺术家的职业生涯,但从未放弃对音乐的热爱和兴趣,每天早上练习双簧管
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引用次数: 1
Notes for a talk on the Legacy of Wynne Godley, Wednesday 12 May, 2020 关于Wynne Godley遗产的演讲笔记,2020年5月12日,星期三
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1848438
K. Coutts
Abstract The paper celebrates the career of Wynne Godley, his achievements and approach to economics. The author worked for many years with Godley in Cambridge, England. He explains Godley’s methods of working, his skills in economic forecasting and the long struggle to develop an integration of Keynesian macroeconomics and monetary economics.
摘要本文对温?戈德利的职业生涯、他的成就和经济学方法进行了颂扬。作者在英国剑桥与戈德利共事多年。他解释了戈德利的工作方法、他在经济预测方面的技能,以及发展凯恩斯宏观经济学和货币经济学一体化的长期斗争。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
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