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Empirical analysis of the financial fragility of Russian enterprises using the financial instability hypothesis 基于金融不稳定假说的俄罗斯企业财务脆弱性实证分析
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134036
E. Perepelkina, I. Rozmainsky
Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the financial instability hypothesis on Russian data. The main literature on this topic has been reviewed, and two financial fragility indexes—developed by Mulligan and by Torres Filho with coauthors—to determine whether Russian firms are in a hedge, speculative or Ponzi regime are used. To do empirical analysis, 371 Russian firms from nine industries—Agriculture, Construction, Investment, Light Industry, Power Industry, Machinery, Steel Industry, Trade, and also Oil, Gas, and Chemicals Industry—were selected, and these panel data include observations from 2005 to 2020. This period includes three cases of falling GDP in Russia: 2008–2009, 2014–2015, and 2020. After identifying the regime of firms according to the two above-mentioned criteria, we make a logistic regression on the base of the Nishi approach to determine what affects a firm’s probability of becoming a Ponzi unit. According to our analysis, the increase in GDP and Profitability leads to declining in the Russian firms’ probability to become Ponzi, whereas the rise in Short-term Debt results in the growing probability to have a fragile financing regime. In general, speculative financing dominated, and Construction, Investment, Power Industry, and Machinery were the most fragile sectors.
摘要本文对俄罗斯数据进行了金融不稳定假说的实证分析。本文回顾了关于这一主题的主要文献,以及由Mulligan和Torres Filho及其合著者开发的两个金融脆弱性指数,以确定俄罗斯公司是否处于对冲、投机或庞氏体制中。为了进行实证分析,我们选择了来自农业、建筑、投资、轻工业、电力工业、机械、钢铁工业、贸易以及石油、天然气和化学工业等9个行业的371家俄罗斯公司,这些面板数据包括2005年至2020年的观察数据。这一时期俄罗斯GDP出现了三次下降:2008-2009年、2014-2015年和2020年。在根据上述两个标准确定了企业的制度之后,我们在Nishi方法的基础上进行了逻辑回归,以确定影响企业成为庞氏单位的概率的因素。根据我们的分析,GDP和盈利能力的增加导致俄罗斯企业成为庞氏骗局的可能性下降,而短期债务的增加导致融资机制脆弱的可能性增加。从总体上看,投机性融资占主导地位,建设、投资、电力、机械是最脆弱的行业。
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引用次数: 0
Household debt, student loan forgiveness, and human capital investment: a neo-Kaleckian approach 家庭债务、学生贷款减免和人力资本投资:新卡莱卡方法
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134035
G. Serra
Abstract This paper aims to analyze the sustainability of student debt in the US. For this purpose, I build a neo-Kaleckian model in which households can borrow to either consume or invest in human capital. Next, I calibrate the model using US data to simulate the economic effects of specific policies such as student loan forgiveness. To my knowledge, this is the first study that considers household borrowing for two different purposes, consumption and human capital accumulation, in a demand-led macro-modeling framework. The main findings are that (i) household debt is sustainable in the long run (i.e., the debt servicing is compatible with the long-term economic growth) for a consumption level greater than 90% of household income; (ii) new borrowing boosts short-term economic activity while having ambiguous long-term effects because of its outcomes to household indebtedness and debt servicing; and (iii) student loan cancelation has only short-run economic effects, whereas reducing loan interest rates and changing the eligibility criterion for student loan forgiveness result in long-term effects.
摘要本文旨在分析美国学生债务的可持续性。为此,我建立了一个新卡莱克模型,在该模型中,家庭可以借贷来消费或投资人力资本。接下来,我使用美国数据校准模型,以模拟学生贷款豁免等特定政策的经济影响。据我所知,这是第一项在需求导向的宏观建模框架中考虑家庭借贷用于两个不同目的的研究,即消费和人力资本积累。主要发现是:(一)消费水平超过家庭收入90%的家庭债务从长远来看是可持续的(即偿债与长期经济增长相适应);(ii)新借贷促进了短期经济活动,但由于其对家庭负债和偿债的影响,其长期影响不明确;以及(iii)取消学生贷款只会产生短期经济影响,而降低贷款利率和改变学生贷款豁免的资格标准会产生长期影响。
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引用次数: 2
The nature of money under a commodity standard: exogenous or endogenous? 商品标准下的货币本质:外生还是内生?
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-10-17 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2134031
G. Feldman
Abstract The aim of the present article is to discuss the nature of money under a commodity standard. The notion of money supply endogeneity, endorsed by Post-Keynesian (PK) scholars within the institutional framework of modern credit economies, is extended to the case of a gold standard regime by recourse to the view of early classical economists, which highlights the endogenous determination of the supply of precious metals in a long-period position. This interpretation represents a more robust and natural extension of the PK approach than the neoclassical quantity-theoretic framework employed by several PK scholars to give account of the normal working of this monetary system.
摘要本文的目的是探讨商品本位下货币的性质。后凯恩斯主义(PK)学者在现代信贷经济的制度框架内认可的货币供应内生性的概念,通过求助于早期古典经济学家的观点,扩展到金本位制度的情况下,该观点强调了长期贵金属供应的内生决定。这种解释代表了PK方法的一种更为稳健和自然的延伸,而不是一些PK学者所采用的新古典数量理论框架,以解释这种货币体系的正常运作。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of expectations on the Brazilian Central Bank’s policy rate 预期对巴西央行政策利率的影响
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121
Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Cleomar Gomes
Abstract This article investigates how expectations influence the determination of the Brazilian benchmark interest rate based on Keynes’ views on the relationship between expectations and monetary policy. Then, as empirical methodology, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration are used to study, in the short and long-run, the connection between expectations and central bank interest rate. For the period from 2001Q3 to 2017Q4, results show that in the long-run business and consumer confidence, as well as expectations related to market interest rates, GDP, inflation and exchange rate play an important role on monetary policy actions. In the short-run, business and consumer confidence lose importance, while the other mentioned expectations are still statistically significant. The findings of the paper lend credence to Keynes’s view on the relation between expectation and money policy in Brazil.
摘要本文基于凯恩斯关于预期与货币政策关系的观点,研究了预期如何影响巴西基准利率的确定。然后,作为实证方法,使用自回归分布滞后模型和协整的边界检验方法,在短期和长期内研究了预期与央行利率之间的联系。从2001年第三季度到2017年第四季度,结果表明,从长期来看,企业和消费者信心以及与市场利率、GDP、通货膨胀和汇率相关的预期对货币政策行动起着重要作用。从短期来看,商业和消费者信心失去了重要性,而其他提到的预期在统计上仍然很显著。本文的研究结果证实了凯恩斯关于巴西货币政策与预期之间关系的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring green jobs through fuzzy logic: aimed at environmental conservation and socio-economic stability and inclusion 通过模糊逻辑衡量绿色就业:旨在环境保护和社会经济稳定与包容
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-10 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807
Natalia Bracarense, Paulo Afonso Bracarense Costa
Abstract The western model of development is experiencing a generalized crisis manifested by economic, political, ecological and sociological worldwide instabilities and heated popular responses sparking in several points of the globe. As illustrated by Kate Raworth in Doughnut Economics, 13% of the world population lives in a situation of food insecurity and 19% lives without electricity, meanwhile society experiences increasing rate of green gas emissions, biodiversity degradation, and deposits of reactive nitrogen. Aims at proposing an economic theory that supports access to basic human rights to every human being without depredating the quality of the environment have led a group of post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian economists to push for a framework that couples economic stability with concerns related to the broader social and environmental systems. To contribute to the newly intensified push of a post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian ecological economics, the present article introduces a metric for green jobs, using non-dichotomous measurements as proposed by “fuzzy logic,” as a tool to operationalize economic policies such as an ecological employment-guarantee program, for instance.
摘要西方发展模式正在经历一场普遍的危机,表现为世界范围内的经济、政治、生态和社会不稳定,以及在全球多个地区引发的激烈民众反应。正如Kate Raworth在《Doughnut Economics》中所阐述的那样,13%的世界人口生活在粮食不安全的环境中,19%的人口生活在没有电力的情况下,与此同时,社会经历了越来越多的温室气体排放、生物多样性退化和活性氮沉积。为了提出一种经济理论,支持每个人在不损害环境质量的情况下获得基本人权,一群后凯恩斯主义/新卡莱克主义经济学家推动了一个框架,将经济稳定与更广泛的社会和环境系统相关的问题结合起来。为了推动后凯恩斯主义/新卡莱克主义生态经济学的新发展,本文引入了一种绿色就业指标,使用“模糊逻辑”提出的非二分法测量,作为实施经济政策的工具,例如生态就业保障计划。
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引用次数: 0
A refundable tax credit for children: its impact on poverty, inequality, and household debt 可退还的儿童税收抵免:对贫困、不平等和家庭债务的影响
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017
S. Pressman, Robert H. Scott
Abstract Households with children face burdens that households without children don’t face. Besides food, clothing, shelter and healthcare, childcare can easily run several thousand dollars each year. Historically, US economic and social policies have done little to help families with children. Until 2018, families with children were helped indirectly through tax exemptions for children and some child tax credits. These benefits mainly helped middle-income families in high tax brackets. Things changed with American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which provided a refundable tax credit to all families with children ($3,600 annually for children under six and $3,000 for those six and older)—even families with no taxable income. This payment is like the child allowance programs that exist in nearly all nations. Our paper examines how the refundable child tax credit affected the economic condition of US households with children, and the impact of this credit on poverty and income inequality in the United States. We conclude with some suggestions for improving the refundable child credit so that it does a better job of helping families with children.
摘要有孩子的家庭面临着没有孩子的家庭所没有的负担。除了食物、衣服、住所和医疗保健,儿童保育每年可以轻松花费数千美元。从历史上看,美国的经济和社会政策对有孩子的家庭几乎没有帮助。直到2018年,有孩子的家庭都通过儿童免税和一些儿童税收抵免得到了间接帮助。这些福利主要帮助高税收阶层的中等收入家庭。随着2021年《美国救援计划法案》的出台,情况发生了变化,该法案为所有有孩子的家庭提供了可退还的税收抵免(六岁以下儿童每年3600美元,六岁及以上儿童每年3000美元),甚至是没有应纳税收入的家庭。这种支付方式类似于几乎所有国家都存在的儿童津贴计划。我们的论文研究了可退还的儿童税收抵免如何影响有孩子的美国家庭的经济状况,以及这种抵免对美国贫困和收入不平等的影响。最后,我们提出了一些建议,以改善可退还的儿童信贷,使其更好地帮助有孩子的家庭。
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引用次数: 1
Endogenous exchange rates in empirical stock-flow consistent models for peripheral economies: an illustration from the case of Argentina 外围经济体经验股票流动一致模型中的内生汇率:以阿根廷为例
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827
Sebastián Valdecantos
Abstract In recent years there has been an increase in empirical SFC models applied to specific countries to address a broad range of research questions. However, in most cases, the exchange rate has been modeled as exogenous. This prevents the analysis of both the multiplicity of channels through which the global financial cycle impacts economies and the effects that the different tools of domestic economic policy have on the external sector and macro-financial stability. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents an empirical quarterly SFC model for Argentina where the exchange rate is modeled among the lines proposed by Godley and Lavoie. The model includes a diversity of tools of economic policy that in the recent past have affected exchange rate stability and, consequently, the economy in general. The results suggest that the closure used in this model can be useful for the construction of similar models for other peripheral countries in which the nominal exchange rate results from the interaction of different processes from both the domestic economy and the rest of the world.
摘要近年来,应用于特定国家的经验SFC模型越来越多,以解决广泛的研究问题。然而,在大多数情况下,汇率被建模为外生汇率。这妨碍了分析全球金融周期影响经济的多种渠道,以及国内经济政策的不同工具对外部部门和宏观金融稳定的影响。为了克服这一限制,本文提出了一个阿根廷的季度SFC实证模型,其中汇率是在Godley和Lavoie提出的线之间建模的。该模型包括多种经济政策工具,这些工具在最近影响了汇率稳定,从而影响了整个经济。结果表明,该模型中使用的闭包有助于为其他外围国家构建类似的模型,在这些国家,名义汇率是由国内经济和世界其他地区不同过程的相互作用产生的。
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引用次数: 1
Does inflation targeting increase income inequality? 通胀目标制会加剧收入不平等吗?
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475
Yener Altunbaş, John Thornton
Abstract We contribute to the growing empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on income distribution by focusing on the impact of adopting an inflation targeting (IT) regime to guide monetary policy. We assess the impact employing a panel of 121 advanced and developing economies, including 27 IT adopters, during the period 1971–2015. Our results suggest that IT adoption has contributed to greater inequality of household income as measured by the Gini coefficient and to a reduced share of GDP going to labor compensation. The results are robust to alternative estimation methodologies and to variations in the sample with respect to countries and data frequency.
我们通过关注采用通货膨胀目标(IT)制度来指导货币政策的影响,为货币政策对收入分配影响的实证文献做出贡献。我们对1971-2015年期间121个发达经济体和发展中经济体(包括27个IT采用者)的影响进行了评估。我们的研究结果表明,通过基尼系数衡量,IT的采用导致了家庭收入的更大不平等,并减少了GDP中用于劳动补偿的份额。结果对于其他估计方法和样本在国家和数据频率方面的变化具有稳健性。
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引用次数: 2
Distribution and demand in Brazil: empirical evidence from the structural and aggregative approaches 巴西的分配和需求:来自结构和综合方法的经验证据
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-28 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826
Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Fabrício José Missio, Ricardo Dathein
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between functional income distribution, aggregate demand and capacity utilization for the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2015. Therefore, we take on two different theoretical perspectives in the empirical exercises: (i) under the structural perspective, we analyze the effects of the wage share on the components of aggregate demand; and (ii) from an aggregative perspective, we evaluated the cyclical relationship between the demand curve and the distribution curve. The results differ according to the theoretical view: the first approach indicated that aggregate demand assumed a wage-led pattern with negative effects on investment (conflicting-stagnationism), while the second one showed a profit-squeeze distribution regime.
摘要本文考察了2000年至2015年间巴西经济的功能性收入分配、总需求和产能利用之间的关系。因此,我们在实证中采用了两种不同的理论视角:(i)在结构视角下,我们分析了工资份额对总需求组成部分的影响;(ii)从综合的角度,我们评估了需求曲线和分布曲线之间的周期关系。根据理论观点,结果各不相同:第一种方法表明,总需求呈现工资主导模式,对投资产生负面影响(冲突的阶段主义),而第二种方法则呈现利润挤压分配制度。
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引用次数: 2
Apparent micro-realism in mainstream orthodox economics 主流正统经济学中的明显微观现实主义
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-20 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423
Joaquim Vergés-Jaime
Abstract As reiterated for a long, mainstream economics mainly relies upon a set of unrealistic axioms and deductive assumptions, which, nevertheless, are what underpins its core postulates. They are unnecessarily unrealistic assumptions, mainly because the empirical evidence for contrasting them is as overwhelming as old. Even the claim for (returning to) realism in economics is already old within part of the profession. However, most mainstream academics tend to consider that their research works have in fact empirical contents insofar as they usually start by considering simplified cases, situations, or descriptions that allude to some real economic facet; this, in the way of specificities to be introduced into the standard General Equilibrium model. This seeming paradox is discussed in this paper, and as a result, it is argued that there do is a predominance of a research programme in mainstream orthodox economics (modern neoclassical “economic theory,” plus “econometrics”) that is mainly characterized, more than by micro-empirical precisions, by a sort of abstract micro empiricism. It is also argued that the outcomes brought about by such a “mode of research production” (contributions) do not appear significantly relevant in terms of the quantum of knowledge provided about the functioning and problems of our economies.
摘要正如长期以来所重申的那样,主流经济学主要依赖于一套不切实际的公理和演绎假设,尽管如此,这些都是其核心假设的基础。它们是不必要的不切实际的假设,主要是因为对比它们的经验证据与以往一样压倒性。即使是经济学中关于(回归)现实主义的主张,在经济学界也已经过时了。然而,大多数主流学者倾向于认为,他们的研究工作实际上具有实证内容,因为他们通常从简单的案例、情况或描述开始,这些案例、情况和描述暗示了一些真实的经济方面;这是以将特殊性引入标准的一般均衡模型的方式实现的。本文讨论了这种看似悖论的现象,因此,认为主流正统经济学(现代新古典主义的“经济理论”加上“计量经济学”)中确实存在一种研究计划的主导地位,这种研究计划的主要特征不仅仅是微观经验的精确性,而是一种抽象的微观经验主义。还有人认为,这种“研究生产模式”(贡献)带来的结果似乎与我们提供的关于经济运行和问题的知识量无关。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
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