Pub Date : 2022-08-11DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121
Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Cleomar Gomes
Abstract This article investigates how expectations influence the determination of the Brazilian benchmark interest rate based on Keynes’ views on the relationship between expectations and monetary policy. Then, as empirical methodology, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration are used to study, in the short and long-run, the connection between expectations and central bank interest rate. For the period from 2001Q3 to 2017Q4, results show that in the long-run business and consumer confidence, as well as expectations related to market interest rates, GDP, inflation and exchange rate play an important role on monetary policy actions. In the short-run, business and consumer confidence lose importance, while the other mentioned expectations are still statistically significant. The findings of the paper lend credence to Keynes’s view on the relation between expectation and money policy in Brazil.
{"title":"The effect of expectations on the Brazilian Central Bank’s policy rate","authors":"Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, Cleomar Gomes","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2110121","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates how expectations influence the determination of the Brazilian benchmark interest rate based on Keynes’ views on the relationship between expectations and monetary policy. Then, as empirical methodology, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models and Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration are used to study, in the short and long-run, the connection between expectations and central bank interest rate. For the period from 2001Q3 to 2017Q4, results show that in the long-run business and consumer confidence, as well as expectations related to market interest rates, GDP, inflation and exchange rate play an important role on monetary policy actions. In the short-run, business and consumer confidence lose importance, while the other mentioned expectations are still statistically significant. The findings of the paper lend credence to Keynes’s view on the relation between expectation and money policy in Brazil.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"612 - 635"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42409905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-10DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807
Natalia Bracarense, Paulo Afonso Bracarense Costa
Abstract The western model of development is experiencing a generalized crisis manifested by economic, political, ecological and sociological worldwide instabilities and heated popular responses sparking in several points of the globe. As illustrated by Kate Raworth in Doughnut Economics, 13% of the world population lives in a situation of food insecurity and 19% lives without electricity, meanwhile society experiences increasing rate of green gas emissions, biodiversity degradation, and deposits of reactive nitrogen. Aims at proposing an economic theory that supports access to basic human rights to every human being without depredating the quality of the environment have led a group of post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian economists to push for a framework that couples economic stability with concerns related to the broader social and environmental systems. To contribute to the newly intensified push of a post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian ecological economics, the present article introduces a metric for green jobs, using non-dichotomous measurements as proposed by “fuzzy logic,” as a tool to operationalize economic policies such as an ecological employment-guarantee program, for instance.
{"title":"Measuring green jobs through fuzzy logic: aimed at environmental conservation and socio-economic stability and inclusion","authors":"Natalia Bracarense, Paulo Afonso Bracarense Costa","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2094807","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The western model of development is experiencing a generalized crisis manifested by economic, political, ecological and sociological worldwide instabilities and heated popular responses sparking in several points of the globe. As illustrated by Kate Raworth in Doughnut Economics, 13% of the world population lives in a situation of food insecurity and 19% lives without electricity, meanwhile society experiences increasing rate of green gas emissions, biodiversity degradation, and deposits of reactive nitrogen. Aims at proposing an economic theory that supports access to basic human rights to every human being without depredating the quality of the environment have led a group of post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian economists to push for a framework that couples economic stability with concerns related to the broader social and environmental systems. To contribute to the newly intensified push of a post-Keynesian/neo-Kaleckian ecological economics, the present article introduces a metric for green jobs, using non-dichotomous measurements as proposed by “fuzzy logic,” as a tool to operationalize economic policies such as an ecological employment-guarantee program, for instance.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"503 - 522"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47746648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-08DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017
S. Pressman, Robert H. Scott
Abstract Households with children face burdens that households without children don’t face. Besides food, clothing, shelter and healthcare, childcare can easily run several thousand dollars each year. Historically, US economic and social policies have done little to help families with children. Until 2018, families with children were helped indirectly through tax exemptions for children and some child tax credits. These benefits mainly helped middle-income families in high tax brackets. Things changed with American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which provided a refundable tax credit to all families with children ($3,600 annually for children under six and $3,000 for those six and older)—even families with no taxable income. This payment is like the child allowance programs that exist in nearly all nations. Our paper examines how the refundable child tax credit affected the economic condition of US households with children, and the impact of this credit on poverty and income inequality in the United States. We conclude with some suggestions for improving the refundable child credit so that it does a better job of helping families with children.
{"title":"A refundable tax credit for children: its impact on poverty, inequality, and household debt","authors":"S. Pressman, Robert H. Scott","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2107017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Households with children face burdens that households without children don’t face. Besides food, clothing, shelter and healthcare, childcare can easily run several thousand dollars each year. Historically, US economic and social policies have done little to help families with children. Until 2018, families with children were helped indirectly through tax exemptions for children and some child tax credits. These benefits mainly helped middle-income families in high tax brackets. Things changed with American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which provided a refundable tax credit to all families with children ($3,600 annually for children under six and $3,000 for those six and older)—even families with no taxable income. This payment is like the child allowance programs that exist in nearly all nations. Our paper examines how the refundable child tax credit affected the economic condition of US households with children, and the impact of this credit on poverty and income inequality in the United States. We conclude with some suggestions for improving the refundable child credit so that it does a better job of helping families with children.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"536 - 557"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41365950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-08DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827
Sebastián Valdecantos
Abstract In recent years there has been an increase in empirical SFC models applied to specific countries to address a broad range of research questions. However, in most cases, the exchange rate has been modeled as exogenous. This prevents the analysis of both the multiplicity of channels through which the global financial cycle impacts economies and the effects that the different tools of domestic economic policy have on the external sector and macro-financial stability. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents an empirical quarterly SFC model for Argentina where the exchange rate is modeled among the lines proposed by Godley and Lavoie. The model includes a diversity of tools of economic policy that in the recent past have affected exchange rate stability and, consequently, the economy in general. The results suggest that the closure used in this model can be useful for the construction of similar models for other peripheral countries in which the nominal exchange rate results from the interaction of different processes from both the domestic economy and the rest of the world.
{"title":"Endogenous exchange rates in empirical stock-flow consistent models for peripheral economies: an illustration from the case of Argentina","authors":"Sebastián Valdecantos","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2103827","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In recent years there has been an increase in empirical SFC models applied to specific countries to address a broad range of research questions. However, in most cases, the exchange rate has been modeled as exogenous. This prevents the analysis of both the multiplicity of channels through which the global financial cycle impacts economies and the effects that the different tools of domestic economic policy have on the external sector and macro-financial stability. To overcome this limitation, this paper presents an empirical quarterly SFC model for Argentina where the exchange rate is modeled among the lines proposed by Godley and Lavoie. The model includes a diversity of tools of economic policy that in the recent past have affected exchange rate stability and, consequently, the economy in general. The results suggest that the closure used in this model can be useful for the construction of similar models for other peripheral countries in which the nominal exchange rate results from the interaction of different processes from both the domestic economy and the rest of the world.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"636 - 666"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49436568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-28DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826
Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Fabrício José Missio, Ricardo Dathein
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between functional income distribution, aggregate demand and capacity utilization for the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2015. Therefore, we take on two different theoretical perspectives in the empirical exercises: (i) under the structural perspective, we analyze the effects of the wage share on the components of aggregate demand; and (ii) from an aggregative perspective, we evaluated the cyclical relationship between the demand curve and the distribution curve. The results differ according to the theoretical view: the first approach indicated that aggregate demand assumed a wage-led pattern with negative effects on investment (conflicting-stagnationism), while the second one showed a profit-squeeze distribution regime.
{"title":"Distribution and demand in Brazil: empirical evidence from the structural and aggregative approaches","authors":"Felipe Orsolin Teixeira, Fabrício José Missio, Ricardo Dathein","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2103826","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the relationship between functional income distribution, aggregate demand and capacity utilization for the Brazilian economy between 2000 and 2015. Therefore, we take on two different theoretical perspectives in the empirical exercises: (i) under the structural perspective, we analyze the effects of the wage share on the components of aggregate demand; and (ii) from an aggregative perspective, we evaluated the cyclical relationship between the demand curve and the distribution curve. The results differ according to the theoretical view: the first approach indicated that aggregate demand assumed a wage-led pattern with negative effects on investment (conflicting-stagnationism), while the second one showed a profit-squeeze distribution regime.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"581 - 611"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41861680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-28DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475
Yener Altunbaş, John Thornton
Abstract We contribute to the growing empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on income distribution by focusing on the impact of adopting an inflation targeting (IT) regime to guide monetary policy. We assess the impact employing a panel of 121 advanced and developing economies, including 27 IT adopters, during the period 1971–2015. Our results suggest that IT adoption has contributed to greater inequality of household income as measured by the Gini coefficient and to a reduced share of GDP going to labor compensation. The results are robust to alternative estimation methodologies and to variations in the sample with respect to countries and data frequency.
{"title":"Does inflation targeting increase income inequality?","authors":"Yener Altunbaş, John Thornton","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2101475","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We contribute to the growing empirical literature on the impact of monetary policy on income distribution by focusing on the impact of adopting an inflation targeting (IT) regime to guide monetary policy. We assess the impact employing a panel of 121 advanced and developing economies, including 27 IT adopters, during the period 1971–2015. Our results suggest that IT adoption has contributed to greater inequality of household income as measured by the Gini coefficient and to a reduced share of GDP going to labor compensation. The results are robust to alternative estimation methodologies and to variations in the sample with respect to countries and data frequency.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"558 - 580"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43511524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-20DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423
Joaquim Vergés-Jaime
Abstract As reiterated for a long, mainstream economics mainly relies upon a set of unrealistic axioms and deductive assumptions, which, nevertheless, are what underpins its core postulates. They are unnecessarily unrealistic assumptions, mainly because the empirical evidence for contrasting them is as overwhelming as old. Even the claim for (returning to) realism in economics is already old within part of the profession. However, most mainstream academics tend to consider that their research works have in fact empirical contents insofar as they usually start by considering simplified cases, situations, or descriptions that allude to some real economic facet; this, in the way of specificities to be introduced into the standard General Equilibrium model. This seeming paradox is discussed in this paper, and as a result, it is argued that there do is a predominance of a research programme in mainstream orthodox economics (modern neoclassical “economic theory,” plus “econometrics”) that is mainly characterized, more than by micro-empirical precisions, by a sort of abstract micro empiricism. It is also argued that the outcomes brought about by such a “mode of research production” (contributions) do not appear significantly relevant in terms of the quantum of knowledge provided about the functioning and problems of our economies.
{"title":"Apparent micro-realism in mainstream orthodox economics","authors":"Joaquim Vergés-Jaime","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2099423","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As reiterated for a long, mainstream economics mainly relies upon a set of unrealistic axioms and deductive assumptions, which, nevertheless, are what underpins its core postulates. They are unnecessarily unrealistic assumptions, mainly because the empirical evidence for contrasting them is as overwhelming as old. Even the claim for (returning to) realism in economics is already old within part of the profession. However, most mainstream academics tend to consider that their research works have in fact empirical contents insofar as they usually start by considering simplified cases, situations, or descriptions that allude to some real economic facet; this, in the way of specificities to be introduced into the standard General Equilibrium model. This seeming paradox is discussed in this paper, and as a result, it is argued that there do is a predominance of a research programme in mainstream orthodox economics (modern neoclassical “economic theory,” plus “econometrics”) that is mainly characterized, more than by micro-empirical precisions, by a sort of abstract micro empiricism. It is also argued that the outcomes brought about by such a “mode of research production” (contributions) do not appear significantly relevant in terms of the quantum of knowledge provided about the functioning and problems of our economies.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"50 11","pages":"87 - 112"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41302006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-18DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2101125
J. Pedersen
Abstract In this paper, it is argued that there exist different interdisciplinary abductive analogies between Keynes’ monetary-production theory and Einstein’s theories of relativity. Based on some of the equations in Einstein’s special theory of relativity vis-à-vis the fundamental equation describing the equilibrium condition in Keynes’ model version of a realistic entrepreneur economy—a complementary scheme to an algebraic-topological interpretation of Keynes’ vision is outlined within the Post Keynesian scientific research programme.
{"title":"Abductive analogies between Keynes’ monetary-production economics and Einstein’s theories of relativity","authors":"J. Pedersen","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2101125","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2101125","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, it is argued that there exist different interdisciplinary abductive analogies between Keynes’ monetary-production theory and Einstein’s theories of relativity. Based on some of the equations in Einstein’s special theory of relativity vis-à-vis the fundamental equation describing the equilibrium condition in Keynes’ model version of a realistic entrepreneur economy—a complementary scheme to an algebraic-topological interpretation of Keynes’ vision is outlined within the Post Keynesian scientific research programme.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"523 - 535"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44552099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-07DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2090378
R. Woodgate
Abstract This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which “Northern” firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage “South” in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time. On the back of this setup follows an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of offshoring in the short and long run. Offshoring through vertical FDI is found to lead to a falling wage share and a simultaneously falling price level and rising markup in the North, whereas the effect on equilibrium capacity utilization may be positive or negative. Regardless of the effect on capacity utilization and firm profitability, we can show that the structural change implied by offshoring leads to lower rates of capital accumulation and employment in the North in the short run. The long-run effects on Northern employment and growth, on the other hand, depend crucially on the long-run accumulation rate of the Northern-owned multinational firms and on whether wages in the North and the South endogenously converge. The model appears well suited to shed light on many real-world macroeconomic phenomena, such as rising FDI flows, falling wage shares, rising markups in an era of low inflation, hysteresis, and secular stagnation.
{"title":"Offshoring via vertical FDI in a long-run Kaleckian Model","authors":"R. Woodgate","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2090378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2090378","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which “Northern” firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage “South” in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time. On the back of this setup follows an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of offshoring in the short and long run. Offshoring through vertical FDI is found to lead to a falling wage share and a simultaneously falling price level and rising markup in the North, whereas the effect on equilibrium capacity utilization may be positive or negative. Regardless of the effect on capacity utilization and firm profitability, we can show that the structural change implied by offshoring leads to lower rates of capital accumulation and employment in the North in the short run. The long-run effects on Northern employment and growth, on the other hand, depend crucially on the long-run accumulation rate of the Northern-owned multinational firms and on whether wages in the North and the South endogenously converge. The model appears well suited to shed light on many real-world macroeconomic phenomena, such as rising FDI flows, falling wage shares, rising markups in an era of low inflation, hysteresis, and secular stagnation.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"46 1","pages":"32 - 64"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46477282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2094276
Peter N. Hess
Abstract Evidence is reviewed that national economic performance generally has been better under Democrat presidents. It is likely, but not necessarily true, however, that better economic performance is related to greater fiscal responsibility. A brief history of federal budget deficits and the gross federal debt for the last seven decades is followed by discussion of why federal budget deficits matter. A simple model is estimated where the shares of federal budget deficits in gross domestic products over the 72-year period from 1950 to 2021 are regressed on the civilian unemployment rate, indicating the state of the economy, and controlling for whether a Democrat or Republican is president and for years the U.S. was engaged in war. An Index of Fiscal Discipline is then regressed on the growth rate in real gross domestic product, again controlling for the party in the White House and war years. The results show that Democrat presidents have been significantly more fiscally responsible.
摘要本文回顾了民主党总统执政期间国家经济表现总体上更好的证据。然而，更好的经济表现可能与更大的财政责任有关，但这并不一定正确。简要介绍了过去七十年来联邦预算赤字和联邦债务总额的历史，然后讨论了联邦预算赤字的重要性。一个简单的模型估算了从1950年到2021年的72年间联邦预算赤字在国内生产总值中所占的份额，并根据平民失业率进行了回归，这表明了经济状况，并控制了民主党人还是共和党人担任总统，以及美国处于战争状态的年份。然后，财政纪律指数(Index of Fiscal Discipline)会根据实际国内生产总值(gdp)的增长率进行回归，再次考虑到白宫的政党和战争年代。结果显示，民主党总统在财政上更加负责任。
{"title":"More fiscally responsible: Democrat or Republican presidents?","authors":"Peter N. Hess","doi":"10.1080/01603477.2022.2094276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2022.2094276","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Evidence is reviewed that national economic performance generally has been better under Democrat presidents. It is likely, but not necessarily true, however, that better economic performance is related to greater fiscal responsibility. A brief history of federal budget deficits and the gross federal debt for the last seven decades is followed by discussion of why federal budget deficits matter. A simple model is estimated where the shares of federal budget deficits in gross domestic products over the 72-year period from 1950 to 2021 are regressed on the civilian unemployment rate, indicating the state of the economy, and controlling for whether a Democrat or Republican is president and for years the U.S. was engaged in war. An Index of Fiscal Discipline is then regressed on the growth rate in real gross domestic product, again controlling for the party in the White House and war years. The results show that Democrat presidents have been significantly more fiscally responsible.","PeriodicalId":47197,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Post Keynesian Economics","volume":"45 1","pages":"339 - 358"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46932963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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