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Cross-border payments, global imbalances and involuntary constraints 跨境支付、全球失衡和非自愿约束
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1999829
George Pantelopoulos
Abstract Investigations into the process by which cross-border payments are completed within the international monetary system remain largely unresolved. By exploring how these payments are executed through a flow of funds representation as per Institutional Practice—the operations of both the Central Bank and commercial banks within the payment and settlement system—this paper will (1) demonstrate that domestic monetary policy implementation entails the Central Bank offsetting all autonomous reserve flows to maintain an overnight policy rate; (2) show why global imbalances occur and persist across the international monetary system; and (3) outline the impact of involuntary constraints on policymaking.
对国际货币体系内跨境支付完成过程的调查在很大程度上仍未得到解决。通过探索这些支付是如何按照制度惯例(即中央银行和商业银行在支付和结算系统中的操作)通过资金流动来执行的,本文将(1)证明,国内货币政策的实施需要中央银行抵消所有自主储备流动,以维持隔夜政策利率;(2)说明全球失衡在国际货币体系中发生和持续的原因;(3)概述非自愿约束对政策制定的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Shape matters: cost curves and capacity utilization in U.S. manufacturing 形状很重要:美国制造业的成本曲线和产能利用率
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.2000336
Cláudio Castelo Branco Puty
Abstract This study investigates the shape of cost curves and cost components of twenty industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the 1958–2010 period. After aggregating data for the 459 industries of the U.S. Standard Industrial Classification (SIC), I analyzed, at both sectoral and two-digit levels, the behavior of unit variable costs for different levels of output, as represented by a proxy for capacity utilization. In addition, I decomposed the cost structure into payroll, wages, and material costs. Results show that the unit variable costs of the large majority of industries present constancy around the trend of the output series, giving support therefore to the hypothesis of a post-Keynesian inverted L-shaped cost curve that, at the aggregate level, shows a considerable range of constancy in unit direct cost curves around normal capacity utilization. In addition, decomposition in material and labor costs shows that labor hoarding is a generalized phenomenon in the manufacturing sector, shown by the steeper slopes of the local regression fits for payroll and wage costs in relation to material costs.
摘要本研究考察了1958-2010年间美国制造业20个行业的成本曲线形状和成本构成。在汇总了美国标准工业分类(SIC)的459个行业的数据后,我在部门和两位数的水平上分析了不同产出水平的单位可变成本的行为,用产能利用率的代理来表示。此外,我将成本结构分解为工资、工资和材料成本。结果表明,绝大多数行业的单位可变成本在产出序列的趋势周围呈现恒定,因此支持后凯恩斯主义倒l型成本曲线的假设,即在总体水平上,在正常产能利用率周围的单位直接成本曲线上显示出相当大的恒定范围。此外,材料和劳动力成本的分解表明,劳动力囤积是制造业的普遍现象,工资和工资成本相对于材料成本的局部回归拟合斜率更陡。
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引用次数: 0
An empirical application of the financial instability hypothesis based on data from the Dutch non-financial private sector 基于荷兰非金融私营部门数据的金融不稳定假说的实证应用
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1993072
I. Rozmainsky, Yuliana Kovezina, Anna N. Klimenko
Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the financial instability hypothesis on Dutch data. The main literature on this topic has been reviewed, and various financial fragility indexes to determine whether Dutch firms are in a hedge, speculative, or Ponzi regime are discussed. To do empirical analysis, 340 publicly-listed private Dutch firms from various industries were selected, and these panel data include observations from 2005 to 2019. This period includes three cases of falling GDP of the Netherlands: 2008–2009, 2011, and 2014. We use for our empirical analysis three financial fragility indexes. After identifying the regime of firms according to these criteria, we chose an index developed by Nishi to make a logistic regression. We use the Nishi approach to determine what affects a firm’s probabilities of becoming a Ponzi and thereby confirm Minsky’s hypothesis on Dutch data. According to our analysis, significant factors of the probability that Dutch private non-financial companies will be a Ponzi firm are profitability, interest rate, industry output, and crisis. Both accumulation of financial fragility due to “destabilizing stability” and austerity policy were reasons for economic crises in the Netherlands in the last decades.
摘要本文对荷兰数据中的金融不稳定假说进行了实证分析。回顾了有关这一主题的主要文献,并讨论了各种金融脆弱性指数,以确定荷兰公司是否处于对冲、投机或庞氏体系中。为了进行实证分析,选择了来自不同行业的340家荷兰上市私营公司,这些面板数据包括2005年至2019年的观察结果。这一时期包括荷兰GDP下降的三个案例:2008-2009年、2011年和2014年。我们使用三个金融脆弱性指数进行实证分析。在根据这些标准确定企业制度后,我们选择了Nishi开发的指数进行逻辑回归。我们使用Nishi方法来确定是什么影响了一家公司成为庞氏骗局的概率,从而证实了Minsky对荷兰数据的假设。根据我们的分析,荷兰私营非金融公司成为庞氏企业的概率的重要因素是盈利能力、利率、行业产出和危机。过去几十年,荷兰经济危机的原因既有“破坏稳定”造成的金融脆弱性积累,也有紧缩政策。
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引用次数: 2
Historicizing the money of account—a rejoinder 将账户上的钱历史化——一种反驳
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1993071
Stefano Sgambati
Abstract “In Defence of the Nominalist Ontology of Money” by Geoffrey Ingham (published by the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics in 2021) contends that “Historicising the Money of Account: A Critique of the Nominalist Ontology of Money” (published by the same journal in 2020) is based on misunderstanding, misrepresentation, and imprecisions. The core proposition in “Historicising the Money of Account” is that the money of account, which is generally understood to be a universal attribute of money, is in fact an institution of late medieval and early modern times that has no significant equivalent in today’s world (or in the ancient world, for that matter). This reply is intended to provide further clarification on the historical and ontological specificity of the late medieval institution of the money of account.
杰弗里·英格姆(Geoffrey Ingham)的摘要《为货币的名义主义本体论辩护》(由《后凯恩斯主义经济学杂志》于2021年出版)认为,《记账货币的历史化:货币名义主义本体的批判》(由同一杂志于2020年出版)是基于误解、失实陈述和不精确性。“记账货币历史化”的核心命题是,记账货币,通常被理解为货币的普遍属性,实际上是中世纪晚期和现代早期的一种制度,在当今世界(或古代世界)没有重要的对等物。这一答复旨在进一步澄清中世纪晚期记账货币制度的历史和本体论特征。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking inequality in the 21st century – inequality and household balance sheet composition in financialized economies 重新思考21世纪的不平等——金融化经济体中的不平等与家庭资产负债表构成
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1969951
H. Szymborska
Abstract This paper analyses the impact of household wealth heterogeneity on inequality and macroeconomic stability in financialized economies. Based on the case of the USA since the 1980s it argues that transformation of financial sector operations has generated inequality by influencing gains from wealth ownership and leverage levels across the income distribution. Securitization and the subprime lending expansion have led to the emergence of a new class of leveraged homeowners, experiencing large increases in wealth prior to the Great Recession, followed by substantial losses after the crisis. Simultaneously, capitalists have diversified their asset portfolios while earning the highest and fastest-growing wages in the economy when employed as financial sector executives. In this light, the paper proposes a new conceptualization of households in macroeconomic models, defined by balance sheet composition rather than income sources alone. To inform this taxonomy, inequality and leverage indicators are simulated in a stock-flow consistent model calibrated to US data with three classes of households distinguished by their wealth composition, and a securitized financial sector. The proposed framework is found to produce more empirically accurate levels of income inequality and greater macroeconomic instability than the two-class division and establishes an equalizing effect of housing for wealth distribution.
摘要本文分析了金融化经济中家庭财富异质性对不平等和宏观经济稳定的影响。基于20世纪80年代以来美国的情况,它认为金融部门运营的转型通过影响财富所有权的收益和整个收入分配的杠杆水平而产生了不平等。证券化和次级贷款扩张导致了一类新的杠杆房主的出现,他们在大衰退前经历了财富的大幅增长,在危机后又遭受了巨大损失。与此同时,资本家在担任金融部门高管时,实现了资产组合的多元化,同时获得了经济中最高、增长最快的工资。有鉴于此,本文提出了宏观经济模型中家庭的新概念,由资产负债表组成而非收入来源单独定义。为了说明这一分类法,在一个根据美国数据校准的股票流一致性模型中模拟了不平等和杠杆指标,其中包括三类按财富构成区分的家庭,以及一个证券化的金融部门。与两个阶级划分相比,所提出的框架产生了更准确的收入不平等水平和更大的宏观经济不稳定性,并建立了住房对财富分配的均衡效应。
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引用次数: 1
The case for the public provisioning of the payments system 支付系统的公共供应情况
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1969952
Fiona C. Maclachlan
Abstract This paper makes the case for allowing citizens and organizations the option of opening deposit accounts at the central bank that would receive the policy rate of interest. Unlike proposals to nationalize banks, this proposal would leave the function of allocating credit to the private sector. I contend that opening up the privilege of transactions accounts at the central bank to non-banks would result in the public provisioning of the payments systems (PPPS). I discuss the feasibility of the reform by framing it within the context of the evolution of the payments system. Specifically, I argue that the PPPS could reduce the financial fragility and the unnecessary expansion of the financial sector that has evolved out of the current arrangements. Furthermore, I address three criticisms that can be made of the PPPS: the inefficiency of government provisioning relative to the private sector, the necessity of private sector bank deposits for the capital development of a country and, finally, the possibility that the problems created by private sector depository institutions might reemerge in the shadow banking sector.
摘要本文提出了允许公民和组织选择在中央银行开立存款账户的理由,该账户将获得政策利率。与银行国有化的提议不同,这一提议将把分配信贷的职能留给私营部门。我认为,向非银行开放中央银行交易账户的特权将导致支付系统的公共供应。我在支付系统发展的背景下讨论了改革的可行性。具体而言,我认为PPPS可以减少金融脆弱性和金融部门不必要的扩张,而这种扩张是由目前的安排演变而来的。此外,我还谈到了对PPPS的三个批评:相对于私营部门,政府拨备的效率低下,私营部门银行存款对一个国家资本发展的必要性,最后,私营部门存款机构造成的问题可能会在影子银行部门再次出现。
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引用次数: 0
The Baran Ratio, investment, and British economic growth and development 巴朗比率、投资与英国经济增长与发展
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3915734
T. Lambert
Abstract Investment in capital, new technology, and agricultural techniques has not been considered an endeavor worthwhile in a medieval economy because of a lack of strong property rights and no incentive on the part of lords and barons to lend money to or grant rights to peasant farmers. Therefore, the medieval economy and standards of living at that time often have been characterized as non-dynamic and static due to insufficient investment in innovative techniques and technology. Paul Baran’s concept of the economic surplus is applied to investment patterns during the late medieval, mercantile, and early capitalist stages of economic growth in England and the UK. This paper uses Zhun Xu’s Baran Ratio concept to try to develop general trends to demonstrate and reinforce other historical accounts of these times that a productive and sufficient level of public and private investment out of accumulated capital income, taxation, and rents does not have a real impact on economic per capita growth until around the 1600 s in Britain. This would also be about the time of capitalism’s ascent as the dominant economic system in England. Even then, dramatic increases in investment and economic growth do not appear until the late 18th Century when investment more consistently becomes more than one hundred percent of the level of the domestic economic surplus and takes in government spending. The types of investment, threshold amounts of investment out of profits and rents along with government spending seem to matter when it comes to a growth path raising GDP per capita and national income per capita to higher levels. Although much of this knowledge perhaps is embodied in current historical accounts, the Baran Ratio nicely summarizes and illustrates the importance of levels of investment to economic growth.
在中世纪经济中,对资本、新技术和农业技术的投资并不被认为是值得付出的努力,因为缺乏强有力的产权,而且领主和男爵们也没有动力借钱给农民或授予农民权利。因此,由于对创新技术和技术的投资不足,当时的中世纪经济和生活水平往往被定性为非动态和静态。保罗·巴兰(Paul Baran)的经济盈余概念适用于中世纪晚期、英国和英国经济增长的商业和早期资本主义阶段的投资模式。本文使用准许的巴兰比率概念,试图发展一般趋势,以证明和加强这一时期的其他历史记录,即在积累的资本收入、税收和租金中,生产性和充足的公共和私人投资水平直到17世纪左右才对英国的人均经济增长产生真正的影响。这也是资本主义崛起为英国主导经济体系的时期。即便如此,投资和经济增长的急剧增长直到18世纪后期才出现,当时投资更加稳定地超过了国内经济盈余水平的100%,并计入了政府支出。当涉及到提高人均GDP和国民收入到更高水平的增长路径时,投资类型,利润和租金投资的门槛金额以及政府支出似乎很重要。虽然这些知识中的大部分可能体现在当前的历史记录中,但巴兰比率很好地总结并说明了投资水平对经济增长的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
Six forms of hierarchy for a theoretical analysis of capitalism 资本主义理论分析的六种等级形式
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1913754
A. Sindzingre, Fabrice Tricou
Abstract The paper develops a conceptual analysis, which aims at refining the general concept of capitalism through an inquiry about the forms of hierarchy it involves. It is argued that the capitalist regime exhibits a series of specific attributes that have been so far underinvestigated together and are here comprehensively elucidated via the deepening of the concept of hierarchy. Qualitatively, the capitalist social structure is ambivalent, as it is neither the strict arborescent hierarchy exhibited by the feudal society, nor the flat partition displayed by the pure market economy; and the complex structure of the capitalist firm is an encompassing hierarchy, capital and labor being associated in a production process ruled by capital. Quantitatively, the capitalist pyramidal hierarchies of income and of wealth are essentially mobile, through the dynamics of market sanction and asset evaluation; and the relationship between capital bets and profit gains draws a tangled hierarchy as these returns are reinvested. All these capitalist hierarchies are typically economic, situational hierarchies arising when capitalists do not dominate the political order of power or in the social order of prestige. Finally, echoing post Keynesian perspectives, the conception of capitalism as a hierarchical phenomenon underlines its monetary structure and its self-transforming nature.
摘要:本文发展了一种概念分析,旨在通过对资本主义所涉及的等级形式的探究,提炼资本主义的一般概念。有人认为,资本主义制度表现出一系列具体的属性,这些属性到目前为止还没有得到充分的研究,本文通过深化等级概念全面阐明了这些属性。从质上看,资本主义社会结构是矛盾的,既不是封建社会所表现出来的严格的树形等级制,也不是纯粹市场经济所表现出来的扁平分割;资本主义企业的复杂结构是一个包络的等级制度,资本和劳动力在资本统治的生产过程中相互关联。在数量上,资本主义金字塔式的收入和财富等级基本上是流动的,通过市场制裁和资产评估的动态;资本押注与利润收益之间的关系,在这些回报被再投资时,形成了错综复杂的层级关系。所有这些资本主义等级制度都是典型的经济的、情境的等级制度,当资本家没有主宰权力的政治秩序或声望的社会秩序时,就会出现这种等级制度。最后,与后凯恩斯主义观点相呼应,资本主义作为一种等级现象的概念强调了其货币结构和自我转化的本质。
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引用次数: 0
Announcing the Levy Economic Institute’s 11th Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar June 12–18, 2022 宣布Levy经济研究所第11届Hyman P.Minsky夏季研讨会2022年6月12日至18日
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1961549
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引用次数: 0
Conventions in Keynes’s theory of goods markets: investment and production decisions 凯恩斯商品市场理论中的惯例:投资和生产决策
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2021.1913753
David Dequech
Abstract The role of conventions in Keynes’s theory has been controversial. When dealing with investment and production decisions, Keynes referred to a projective rule that is his main example of convention. In addition, conventions appear in the practical techniques that Keynes attributed to agents concerned with the accumulation of wealth. Two important points have been neglected in existing interpretations. First, all these practical rules are directly present in goods markets and are not just rules used in financial markets that possibly influence agents in goods markets. Second, Keynes’s conventions in investment decisions are characterized by two properties: conformity with conformity and arbitrariness. The mechanisms underlying conformity with conformity include informational differences and possibly epistemic legitimacy, but, in contrast to Keynes’s discussion of financial markets, not a coordination effect with self-fulfilling prophecies. Those two properties are not clear in the case of production decisions.
惯例在凯恩斯理论中的作用一直存在争议。在处理投资和生产决策时,凯恩斯提到了一条投影规则,这是他关于惯例的主要例子。此外,凯恩斯将惯例归因于关注财富积累的代理人的实用技术。现有的解释忽略了两个要点。首先,所有这些实际规则都直接存在于商品市场中,而不仅仅是金融市场中使用的可能影响商品市场代理人的规则。第二,凯恩斯投资决策惯例具有两个特征:一致性与一致性和任意性。一致性与一致性背后的机制包括信息差异和可能的认知合法性,但与凯恩斯对金融市场的讨论相反,这不是与自我实现预言的协调效应。在生产决策的情况下,这两个特性并不明确。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
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