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Climate change and macroeconomic policy space in developing and emerging economies 发展中经济体和新兴经济体的气候变化和宏观经济政策空间
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-23 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2084630
Anne Löscher, Annina Kaltenbrunner
Abstract This paper addresses the macroeconomic challenges stemming from the double affectedness of climate change and dependence on external finance in peripheral countries. The paper uses the Post-Keynesian concept of an asset’s own rate of return to assess how susceptibility to the combined effects of erratic capital flows and the vulnerability vis-à-vis the physical and transitional risks of climate change reduces macroeconomic policy space. Climate change and mitigation strategies are said to contribute to financial instability ensuing flight-to-quality of international investors. This translates into higher external financial fragility in low income countries with a high degree of commodity dependence—with increased exchange rate volatility and devaluating pressure deteriorating affected countries’ currencies’ liquidity premia and the expectation of their short-term exchange rates as result. Consequently, policy-makers in affected countries are forced to commit to investor-friendly policies and high interest rates to uphold their currencies’ acceptance. The susceptibility to the physical risks of climate change and mitigation hence contributes to the self-perpetuating nature of international monetary asymmetries and hierarchies.
摘要本文论述了外围国家由于气候变化和对外融资依赖的双重影响而产生的宏观经济挑战。该论文使用后凯恩斯主义的资产自身回报率概念来评估对不稳定资本流动的综合影响的易感性以及对气候变化的物理和过渡风险的脆弱性如何减少宏观经济政策空间。据说,气候变化和缓解策略会导致金融不稳定,从而导致国际投资者转向优质投资者。这意味着商品依赖程度高的低收入国家的外部金融脆弱性更高,汇率波动和贬值压力加剧,从而影响到各国货币的流动性溢价和对短期汇率的预期。因此,受影响国家的决策者被迫承诺采取有利于投资者的政策和高利率,以维护其货币的接受度。因此,易受气候变化和缓解的物理风险的影响,助长了国际货币不对称和等级制度的自我延续性质。
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引用次数: 1
The global financial cycle and external debt: effects on growth and distribution in emerging and developing economies 全球金融周期和外债:对新兴和发展中经济体增长和分配的影响
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2068032
P. Bortz, Gabriel Michelena, Fernando Toledo
Abstract The global financial cycle (GFCy), driven by international monetary conditions and global risk perceptions, is a major driver of capital flows to and out of emerging and developing economies (EDEs), reflected in external indebtedness. This paper analyzes the impact of the GFCy on the economic performance of EDEs borrowing in international markets. Rising external borrowing generates appreciating pressures on the exchange rate and lowers the cost of external borrowing. The overall impact of these reinforcing effects acts over investment, debt servicing and the current account balance. We conduct simulation exercises which show that rising external debt coupled with lax external financial conditions have a detrimental impact on economic activity and creates inflationary pressures through the effect of financial costs and the reaction of nominal wage demands. We show that capital control measures increase the degrees of freedom of monetary authorities.
由国际货币条件和全球风险认知驱动的全球金融周期(GFCy)是资本流入和流出新兴和发展中经济体(EDEs)的主要驱动力,反映在外债上。本文分析了全球信贷危机对新兴经济体在国际市场上借贷的经济表现的影响。外部借款增加会对汇率产生升值压力,并降低外部借款成本。这些强化效应的总体影响涉及投资、偿债和经常账户余额。我们进行的模拟演习表明,外债增加加上外部金融条件宽松,对经济活动产生不利影响,并通过金融成本的影响和名义工资需求的反应产生通货膨胀压力。我们表明,资本管制措施增加了货币当局的自由度。
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引用次数: 2
Lost in consolidation? Declining public investment, multiplier effects and alternatives to the path of fiscal consolidation in Portugal 在整合中迷失?公共投资下降、乘数效应以及葡萄牙财政整顿道路的替代方案
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2077764
Vicente Ferreira
Abstract This paper deals with one of the most pressing concerns that Eurozone periphery economies will face in the near future: how to achieve a sustained recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while dealing with growing public debt-to-GDP ratios. The paper assesses the macroeconomic relationship between public spending, economic growth and debt sustainability. We use a TSLS method to perform the econometric estimation of the public spending multiplier for a panel of 11 Eurozone economies over the 1995–2019 period. We find evidence that the multiplier is positive and close to 1,8, suggesting that the benefits of promoting public investment exceed its initial financing cost. As a result, we conclude that debt sustainability is not only compatible with, but in fact improved by a more expansive fiscal policy and present an alternative policy path for the Portuguese economy in the 2021–2025 period based on this conclusion.
摘要本文讨论了欧元区外围经济体在不久的将来将面临的最紧迫的问题之一:如何在应对不断增长的公共债务与GDP比率的同时,实现从新冠肺炎危机中持续复苏。本文评估了公共支出、经济增长和债务可持续性之间的宏观经济关系。我们使用TSLS方法对1995-2019年期间11个欧元区经济体的公共支出乘数进行了计量经济学估计。我们发现有证据表明,乘数是正的,接近1.8,这表明促进公共投资的好处超过了其初始融资成本。因此,我们得出的结论是,债务可持续性不仅与更广泛的财政政策相兼容,而且实际上通过更广泛的财务政策来改善,并基于这一结论为葡萄牙经济在2021-2025年提供了一条替代政策路径。
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引用次数: 0
Watery Rose Apple: A Comprehensive Review of Its Traditional Uses, Nutritional Value, Phytochemistry, and Therapeutic Merits against Inflammation-Related Disorders. 含水玫瑰苹果:全面评述其传统用途、营养价值、植物化学以及对炎症相关疾病的治疗功效。
3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-29 eCollection Date: 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1155/2022/7502185
Mouna Yassir, Widad Ben Bakrim, Mona F Mahmoud, BadrEddine Drissi, Lamfeddal Kouisni, Mansour Sobeh

The myrtle family, Myrtaceae, constitutes over 5500 species, and Syzygium is considered the largest genus of the flowering plants within the family. The watery rose apple, Syzygium aqueum, is a traditional medicinal plant with various bioactive compounds distributed in all plant parts. These include phenolic compounds, flavonoids, tannins, terpenoids, and essential oils. S. aqueum extracts and their isolated compounds showed multiple beneficial biological effects such as antibacterial, antifungal, antidiabetic, analgesic, antimalarial, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anticancer activities. This review is aimed at discussing all the available information about the nutritional value, traditional uses, and therapeutic properties of the leaves, fruit, and stem bark of the plant, in addition to the distribution of phytoconstituents in its different parts as well as recommend future research directions on this species to promote its clinical uses.

桃金娘科(Myrtaceae)有 5500 多个物种,而茜草属(Syzygium)被认为是该科中最大的开花植物属。含水玫瑰苹果(Syzygium aqueum)是一种传统的药用植物,植物的各个部分都含有各种生物活性化合物。这些化合物包括酚类化合物、类黄酮、单宁、萜类化合物和精油。S. aqueum 提取物及其分离出的化合物显示出多种有益的生物效应,如抗菌、抗真菌、抗糖尿病、镇痛、抗疟、抗氧化、抗炎和抗癌活性。本综述旨在讨论有关该植物的叶、果实和茎皮的营养价值、传统用途和治疗特性的所有现有信息,以及植物成分在其不同部位的分布情况,并就该物种未来的研究方向提出建议,以促进其临床应用。
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引用次数: 0
Link between private debt and public surplus in Spain 西班牙私人债务与公共盈余之间的联系
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-16 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2068035
Eduardo Garzón Espinosa, Bibiana Medialdea García, Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, Carlos Sánchez Mato
Abstract Throughout recent history, the Spanish economy registered a fiscal surplus only between 2005 and 2007. Analysts agree that this surplus was a product of the extraordinary economic growth, but they often fail to notice that it was based on similarly exceptional growth in private debt, which was a necessary condition for achieving fiscal surplus. This finding can be illuminated from the vantage of sectoral balances: in economies that usually run a current account deficit, such as Spain’s, a public surplus can be achieved only in situations characterized by a credit bubble. To verify this idea we examine the impact that the Spanish real estate and credit bubble had on public accounts, and we also estimate an econometric model of autoregressive vectors. The results corroborate the working hypothesis: Spain’s only fiscal surplus in recent years was achieved thanks to the largest private indebtedness process in the country’s history. This evidence could have important implications in terms of economic policy, because economies with regular current account deficits such as Spain could have difficulties in achieving their fiscal goals without experiencing credit booms.
纵观近代史,西班牙经济仅在2005年至2007年间出现财政盈余。分析人士一致认为,这种盈余是经济超常增长的产物,但他们往往没有注意到,这是基于私人债务的同样超常增长,而私人债务增长是实现财政盈余的必要条件。这一发现可以从部门平衡的优势中得到阐释:在西班牙等通常存在经常账户赤字的经济体中,只有在出现信贷泡沫的情况下,才能实现公共盈余。为了验证这一观点,我们研究了西班牙房地产和信贷泡沫对公共账户的影响,我们还估计了自回归向量的计量经济模型。研究结果证实了一个可行的假设:西班牙近年来唯一的财政盈余,要归功于该国历史上规模最大的私人债务进程。这一证据可能对经济政策产生重要影响,因为西班牙等经常出现经常账户赤字的经济体可能难以在不经历信贷繁荣的情况下实现其财政目标。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of a long run regime for growth and demand through different filtering methods 通过不同的过滤方法对增长和需求的长期状态进行估计
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-05 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2068033
Joana David Avritzer
Abstract This paper discusses the possibility of estimating a long run relationship between income distribution and growth. As emphasized by Blecker, the neo-Kaleckian empirical literature has focused on the estimation of a short run relationship. This paper contributes to the debate by looking at a long term relationship through the use of filtering methods. We first estimate the long run component (or “trend” component) of the relevant variables using various types of filters. Second, we run causality tests and frequentist estimations to test for the relationship between the estimated trend components. We find that there is little difference between the results of each filter and there is empirical evidence for long run relationship between the rate of capacity utilization and income distribution. We also find that there is some empirical evidence for long run wage-led growth.
摘要本文讨论了估计收入分配与增长之间长期关系的可能性。正如Blecker所强调的那样,新卡莱克主义的实证文献侧重于对短期关系的估计。本文通过使用过滤方法来观察长期关系,为这场争论做出了贡献。我们首先使用各种类型的滤波器来估计相关变量的长期分量(或“趋势”分量)。其次,我们运行因果关系检验和频繁度估计来检验估计的趋势分量之间的关系。我们发现,每个滤波器的结果之间几乎没有差异,并且有经验证据表明产能利用率和收入分配之间存在长期关系。我们还发现,有一些经验证据表明长期工资主导的增长。
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引用次数: 1
Capital productivity and the decreasing wage share in the United States: a Keynesian Approach 美国的资本生产率和工资份额的下降:一个凯恩斯主义的方法
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2068034
Carles Manera, F. Navinés, José A. Pérez-Montiel, Javier Franconetti
Abstract We argue that in the US there is a causal relationship running unidirectionally from negative shocks in capital productivity to negative variations in the wage share. We sustain that, faced with a capital productivity decrease, the US firm sector pushes wages down to maximize the rate of profit. Through asymmetric SVAR techniques that are robust to endogeneity and structural breaks; we show that decreases in capital productivity unidirectionally cause decreases in the wage share. We offer some possible explanations for that.
摘要我们认为,在美国,资本生产率的负冲击与工资份额的负变化之间存在单向的因果关系。我们认为,面对资本生产率的下降,美国企业部门压低工资以使利润率最大化。通过对内生性和结构断裂具有鲁棒性的非对称SVAR技术;我们表明,资本生产率的下降单向地导致工资份额的下降。我们对此提供了一些可能的解释。
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引用次数: 2
Remembering Geoff Harcourt (1931–2021): a post-Keynesian pioneer 追忆杰夫•哈考特(1931-2021):后凯恩斯主义先驱
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2068036
S. Cornish, John Hawkins
Abstract Geoff Harcourt was esteemed for the quality of his prolific scholarship. He was a pioneering post-Keynesian economist who specialized in capital theory. But he also wrote on many other theoretical areas as well as contributing to policy debates and writing intellectual biographies. In addition to his published work, he made a remarkable contribution as a teacher and mentor, encouraging, supporting and guiding countless students and colleagues. His contributions to economics and public policy are therefore far more than the work he wrote himself. Generous, collegiate, encouraging and sympathetic, he was an outstanding person as well as a great economist.
摘要杰夫·哈考特因其丰富的学术成果而受到尊敬。他是后凯恩斯主义的先驱经济学家,专门研究资本理论。但他也撰写了许多其他理论领域的文章,并为政策辩论和撰写知识分子传记做出了贡献。除了出版的作品外,他作为一名教师和导师做出了卓越的贡献,鼓励、支持和指导了无数学生和同事。因此,他对经济和公共政策的贡献远远超过他自己写的作品。他是一位杰出的人,也是一位伟大的经济学家。
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引用次数: 3
Financialization of South Korean non-financial firms: an empirical analysis of the impacts on firms’ real and research and development investments 韩国非金融企业的金融化:对企业实物投资和研发投资影响的实证分析
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2027786
J. Jo, Yeyoul Yu
Abstract This study explores financialization’s effects on corporate innovation using data on 711 firms taken from the KIS-Value database (1994–2019) and the generalized method of moments (GMM) model. Scholars warn that aiming solely to maximize shareholders’ interests and short-term financial investments places non-financial firms’ entrepreneurship at risk. Long-term R&D and real investments decline as a result, leading to stagnant growth. This study investigates whether empirical findings from the US and the UK, where financialization negatively affects corporations’ real and R&D investments, apply to the South Korean market. We find that the financialization of South Korean non-financial firms has damaged both real and R&D investments. The first channel of financialization, increased financial investments, reduces real investments and R&D spending. Furthermore, the second channel of financialization, profit-sharing, reduces corporate innovation. The more that South Korean non-financial firms adhere to dividend payments and stock buybacks, the greater the negative impacts on real and R&D investments are.
本研究利用kiss - value数据库1994-2019年711家企业的数据和广义矩量法(GMM)模型,探讨了金融化对企业创新的影响。学者们警告说,仅仅以股东利益最大化和短期金融投资为目标,会使非金融企业的创业精神面临风险。因此,长期研发和实际投资下降,导致增长停滞。在美国和英国,金融化对企业的实际投资和研发投资产生了负面影响,本研究调查了这一实证发现是否适用于韩国市场。我们发现,韩国非金融企业的金融化损害了实体投资和研发投资。第一个渠道是金融化,增加金融投资,减少实际投资和研发支出。此外,金融化的第二个渠道——利润分享,也降低了企业的创新。韩国非金融企业越是坚持股息支付和股票回购,对实际投资和研发投资的负面影响越大。
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引用次数: 0
Technology and productivity: a critique of aggregate indicators 技术与生产力:对综合指标的批判
IF 1 3区 经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2022.2029491
F. Block
Abstract Economic analysts have used trends in total factor productivity (TFP) to evaluate the effectiveness with which economies are utilizing advances in technology. However, this measure is problematic on several different dimensions. First, the idea that it is possible to separate out the relative contribution to economic output of labor, capital, and technology requires ignoring their complex interdependence in actual production. Second, since TFP growth has declined in recent decades in all of the developed market societies, there is good reason to believe that the decline is an artifact of the slower rates of economic growth that are linked to austerity policies. Third, reliance on TFP assumes that measures of the gross domestic product are accurately capturing changes in economic output, even as the portion of the labor force producing tangible goods has declined substantially. Finally, there are other indicators that suggest that current rates of technological progress might be as strong or stronger than in earlier decades.
摘要经济分析师利用全要素生产率的趋势来评估经济体利用技术进步的有效性。然而,这项措施在几个不同的方面都存在问题。首先,有可能将劳动力、资本和技术对经济产出的相对贡献分开的想法需要忽略它们在实际生产中的复杂相互依存关系。其次,由于近几十年来所有发达市场社会的全要素生产率增长都有所下降,因此有充分的理由相信,这种下降是与紧缩政策有关的经济增长率放缓的产物。第三,对全要素生产率的依赖假设国内生产总值的衡量标准准确地反映了经济产出的变化,即使生产有形商品的劳动力比例大幅下降。最后,还有其他指标表明,目前的技术进步速度可能与前几十年一样强劲或更强。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics
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