Pub Date : 2025-05-01Epub Date: 2024-06-01DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100522
Jiangfeng Wei , Ye Pu , Xiaocong Liu , Yufeng Shan , Botao Zhou
Mid-to-high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions most impacted by global warming and is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on its ecosystems. The future vegetation changes in this region are still uncertain, warranting a comprehensive investigation. In this study, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of leaf area index (LAI) projections by models in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively). It was found that the CMIP6 models offer greater consistency with historical observations and demonstrate reduced prediction uncertainty compared to the CMIP5 models. There are strong linear relationships between the historical and future vegetation characteristics among the CMIP6 models, which enables a constrained projection of future vegetation based on historical vegetation observations. The model projections suggest a prospective overall increase in the mean, interannual variability, and seasonal amplitude of LAI in the MHA region in the future period (2061–2100) in comparison to the historical period (1985–2014). These results underscore the imperative need to enhance the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate extremes in this region.
{"title":"Analyzing uncertainty and constraining projections for future vegetation in mid-to-high-latitude Asia","authors":"Jiangfeng Wei , Ye Pu , Xiaocong Liu , Yufeng Shan , Botao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100522","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100522","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mid-to-high-latitude Asia (MHA) is one of the regions most impacted by global warming and is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on its ecosystems. The future vegetation changes in this region are still uncertain, warranting a comprehensive investigation. In this study, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of leaf area index (LAI) projections by models in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) under high emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively). It was found that the CMIP6 models offer greater consistency with historical observations and demonstrate reduced prediction uncertainty compared to the CMIP5 models. There are strong linear relationships between the historical and future vegetation characteristics among the CMIP6 models, which enables a constrained projection of future vegetation based on historical vegetation observations. The model projections suggest a prospective overall increase in the mean, interannual variability, and seasonal amplitude of LAI in the MHA region in the future period (2061–2100) in comparison to the historical period (1985–2014). These results underscore the imperative need to enhance the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate extremes in this region.</div><div>摘要</div><div>亚洲中高纬地区是受全球变暖影响最严重的地区之一, 其生态系统高度受到气候变化的影响. 然而, 该地区未来植被变化仍不确定, 需要进行全面调查. 在这项研究中, 作者比较分析了耦合模式比较计划第五和第六阶段 (CMIP5和CMIP6) 中高排放情景 (分别为RCP8.5和SSP5–8.5) 下的叶面积指数 (LAI) 预测. 分析发现, CMIP6模式的LAI结果与历史观测数据更为一致, 并且相比CMIP5模式表现出更小的预测不确定性. CMIP6模式的历史和未来植被特征之间具有强线性关系, 这使得基于历史植被观测进行未来植被预测成为可能. 预测表明, 未来 (2061–2100年) 与历史时期 (1985–2014年) 相比, 亚洲中高纬度地区LAI的平均值, 年际变率和季节振幅将整体增加. 研究结果强调了提高对该地区生态系统应对气候极端事件的理解的重要性.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100522"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141280053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-01Epub Date: 2024-05-23DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100518
Lingli He , Fuzhong Weng
A polarized bidirectional reflectance distribution function (pBRDF) matrix is developed from two-scale roughness theory with the aim of providing more accurate simulations of microwave emissions and scattering required for ocean–atmosphere coupled radiative transfer models. The potential of the pBRDF matrix is explored for simulating the ocean backscatter at Ku-band. The effects of ocean wave spectra including the modified Durden and Vesecky (DV2), Elfouhaily, and Kudryavtsev spectra on the pBRDF matrix backscatter simulations are investigated. Additionally, the differences in backscattering normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) simulations between the Ku-band geophysical model function and pBRDF matrix are analyzed. The results show that the pBRDF matrix can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of ocean surface backscattering energy, but the distribution pattern and numerical values are influenced by ocean wave spectra. The DV2 spectrum is the best one for the pBRDF matrix to simulate horizontally polarized NRCSs, with the exception of scenarios where the incidence angle is below 35°, the wind speed is less than 10 m s−1, and in the cross-wind direction. Also, the DV2 spectrum effectively characterizes the wind speed and relative azimuth angle dependence for vertically polarized NRCSs. The Elfouhaily spectrum is suitable for simulating vertically polarized NRCSs under conditions of low wind speed (below 5 m s−1) and incidence angles under 40°. The Kudryavtsev spectrum excels in simulating vertically polarized NRCSs at high incidence angles (> 40°) and horizontally polarized NRCSs at low incidence angles (< 35°).
基于双尺度粗糙度理论，建立了极化双向反射分布函数（pBRDF）矩阵，为海洋-大气耦合辐射传输模型提供更精确的微波发射和散射模拟。探讨了pBRDF矩阵在ku波段模拟海洋后向散射的潜力。研究了改进的Durden和Vesecky （DV2）、Elfouhaily和Kudryavtsev谱对pBRDF矩阵后向散射模拟的影响。此外，还分析了ku波段地球物理模型函数与pBRDF矩阵在后向散射归一化雷达截面（NRCS）模拟中的差异。结果表明，pBRDF矩阵能较好地再现海面后向散射能量的空间分布，但分布格局和数值受海浪谱的影响较大。除入射角小于35°、风速小于10 m s−1、横风向等情况外，DV2谱线是pBRDF矩阵模拟水平极化nrcs的最佳谱线。此外，DV2频谱有效地表征了垂直极化nrcs的风速和相对方位角依赖关系。Elfouhaily谱适用于低风速（小于5 m s−1）和入射角小于40°条件下的垂直极化nrcs模拟。Kudryavtsev谱在高入射角(>；40°)和低入射角(<；35°)。摘要为提供微波海洋——大气耦合辐射传输模型所需的精确发射和散射,基于双尺度粗糙度理论发展了极化双向反射分布函数(pBRDF)矩阵。本研究探讨了pBRDF矩阵是否能够表征ku波段洋面后向散射,对比了三种常用海浪谱模型对pBRDF矩阵后向散射模拟的影响,分析了ku波段地球物理模型函数(GMF)与pBRDF矩阵在后向散射归一化雷达截面(nrc)模拟中的差异。结果表明,pBRDF矩阵能够准确再现洋面后向散射能量的空间分布,但后向散射能量分布受海浪谱影响较大。
{"title":"Effects of ocean wave spectra on the polarized bidirectional reflectance distribution function matrix at Ku‐band and its implications on satellite backscattering simulations","authors":"Lingli He , Fuzhong Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100518","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A polarized bidirectional reflectance distribution function (pBRDF) matrix is developed from two-scale roughness theory with the aim of providing more accurate simulations of microwave emissions and scattering required for ocean–atmosphere coupled radiative transfer models. The potential of the pBRDF matrix is explored for simulating the ocean backscatter at Ku-band. The effects of ocean wave spectra including the modified Durden and Vesecky (DV2), Elfouhaily, and Kudryavtsev spectra on the pBRDF matrix backscatter simulations are investigated. Additionally, the differences in backscattering normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) simulations between the Ku-band geophysical model function and pBRDF matrix are analyzed. The results show that the pBRDF matrix can reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of ocean surface backscattering energy, but the distribution pattern and numerical values are influenced by ocean wave spectra. The DV2 spectrum is the best one for the pBRDF matrix to simulate horizontally polarized NRCSs, with the exception of scenarios where the incidence angle is below 35°, the wind speed is less than 10 m s<sup>−1</sup>, and in the cross-wind direction. Also, the DV2 spectrum effectively characterizes the wind speed and relative azimuth angle dependence for vertically polarized NRCSs. The Elfouhaily spectrum is suitable for simulating vertically polarized NRCSs under conditions of low wind speed (below 5 m s<sup>−1</sup>) and incidence angles under 40°. The Kudryavtsev spectrum excels in simulating vertically polarized NRCSs at high incidence angles (> 40°) and horizontally polarized NRCSs at low incidence angles (< 35°).</div><div>摘要</div><div>为提供微波海洋-大气耦合辐射传输模型所需的精确发射和散射, 基于双尺度粗糙度理论发展了极化双向反射分布函数 (pBRDF) 矩阵. 本研究探讨了pBRDF矩阵是否能够表征ku波段洋面后向散射, 对比了三种常用海浪谱模型对pBRDF矩阵后向散射模拟的影响, 分析了ku波段地球物理模型函数 (GMF) 与pBRDF矩阵在后向散射归一化雷达截面 (NRCS) 模拟中的差异. 结果表明, pBRDF矩阵能够准确再现洋面后向散射能量的空间分布, 但后向散射能量分布受海浪谱影响较大.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100518"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141145335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-01Epub Date: 2024-06-10DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534
Yankun Sun , Rui Zhu , Tao Wang
In the context of global warming, it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation (EHP) and extreme high temperature (EHT) events will increase. To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau, this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) to assess the changes in EHP (Rx5d and R95pTOT) and EHT (TX90p and TXx) under different emission scenarios in the 21st century. Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase, exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century (2026–2045) will be relatively moderate, with small differences between different emission scenarios. However, by the middle subperiod of the 21st century (2041–2060), the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense. In western central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%–14.2% (13.3%–24.7%), 1.3°C–1.7°C (1.6°C–2.7°C), 6.5%–8.9% (8.2%–8.8%), and 18.1%–27.0% (25.6%–30.0%) by the early (middle) subperiod; in eastern central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 8.1%–12.0% (11.3%–21.1%), 1.4°C–1.8°C (1.9°C–2.9°C), 7.4%–9.7% (10.4%–13.8%), and 20.2%–29.3% (32.0%–40.8%) by the early (middle) subperiod; and over the Tibetan Plateau, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 12.5%–17.4% (17.0%–31.0%), 1.2°C–1.5°C (1.6°C–2.5°C), 7.2%–10.0% (9.9%–15.0%), and 26.6%–33.1% (36.1%–55.3%) by the early (middle) subperiod.
{"title":"Projection of extreme climate change in the Asian arid region and the Tibetan Plateau in the early and middle 21st century based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6","authors":"Yankun Sun , Rui Zhu , Tao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global warming, it is anticipated that both the intensity and the frequency of future global extreme high precipitation (EHP) and extreme high temperature (EHT) events will increase. To evaluate the future extreme climate changes in the Asian arid region and Tibetan Plateau, this study applied the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) to assess the changes in EHP (Rx5d and R95pTOT) and EHT (TX90p and TXx) under different emission scenarios in the 21st century. Findings suggest that both the frequency and the intensity of the extreme indices will increase, exhibiting accelerated growth under higher emission scenarios, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. It is suggested that the growth of EHT and EHP in the early subperiod of the 21st century (2026–2045) will be relatively moderate, with small differences between different emission scenarios. However, by the middle subperiod of the 21st century (2041–2060), the differences between different emission scenarios will become larger than the 2035s and the growth will become more intense. In western central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase by 9.7%–14.2% (13.3%–24.7%), 1.3°C–1.7°C (1.6°C–2.7°C), 6.5%–8.9% (8.2%–8.8%), and 18.1%–27.0% (25.6%–30.0%) by the early (middle) subperiod; in eastern central Asia, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 8.1%–12.0% (11.3%–21.1%), 1.4°C–1.8°C (1.9°C–2.9°C), 7.4%–9.7% (10.4%–13.8%), and 20.2%–29.3% (32.0%–40.8%) by the early (middle) subperiod; and over the Tibetan Plateau, TX90p, TXx, Rx5d, and R95pTOT increase 12.5%–17.4% (17.0%–31.0%), 1.2°C–1.5°C (1.6°C–2.5°C), 7.2%–10.0% (9.9%–15.0%), and 26.6%–33.1% (36.1%–55.3%) by the early (middle) subperiod.</div><div>摘要</div><div>近年来, 随着全球变暖, 大部分地区极端气候事件的风险都有所增加. 作为中国一带一路建设核心区域的亚洲干旱区和青藏高原区域面临着严峻的极端气候风险. 本文利用NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据预估了未来21世纪早期 (2026–2045) 和中期 (2041–2060) 不同排放情景下亚洲干旱区和青藏高原相较气候参考期 (1995–2014) 极端高温指数和极端降水指数的变化. 预估结果显示, 在不同排放情景下极端高温指数和极端降水指数都有所上升, 且在SSP5-8.5情景下增长最多, 其中NEX-GDDP-CMIP6不同模式对极端高温指数的模拟一致性高于极端降水指数. 21世纪中期相比早期极端高温指数和极端降水指数的增长更加严重.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100534"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141398743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-05-01Epub Date: 2023-03-31DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100326
Peter Kowalski
{"title":"Corrigendum to ‘On the contribution of Rossby waves driven by surface buoyancy fluxes to low-frequency North Atlantic steric sea surface height variations’ Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 15 (2022) 100153","authors":"Peter Kowalski","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100326","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100326"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45399275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-09-19DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100554
Ziqing Chen , Kelvin T.F. Chan , Zawai Luo
Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Taiwan Island (TW) is one of the key regions that is highly exposed to TCs originated from the western North Pacific. Here, the authors utilize two mainstream reanalysis datasets for the period 1979–2013 and propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model—namely, the Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) Model—for predicting the number of TC landfalls on TW based on the environmental factors in the preseason. The comprehensive predictor sampling and multiple linear regression show that the 850-hPa meridional wind over the west of the Antarctic Peninsula in January, the 300-hPa specific humidity over the open ocean southwest of Australia in January, the 300-hPa relative vorticity over the west of the Sea of Okhotsk in March, and the sea surface temperature in the South Indian Ocean in April, are the most significant predictors. The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.87. The model is validated by the leave-one-out and nine-fold cross-validation methods, and recent 9-yr observations (2014–2022). The Antarctic Oscillation, variabilities of the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian summer monsoon, and oceanic tunnel are the possible physical linkages or mechanisms behind the model result. The SYSU Model exhibits a 98% hit rate in 1979–2022 (43 out of 44), suggesting an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TC landfalls on TW.
{"title":"Statistical seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfalls on Taiwan Island","authors":"Ziqing Chen , Kelvin T.F. Chan , Zawai Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Taiwan Island (TW) is one of the key regions that is highly exposed to TCs originated from the western North Pacific. Here, the authors utilize two mainstream reanalysis datasets for the period 1979–2013 and propose an effective statistical seasonal forecasting model—namely, the Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) Model—for predicting the number of TC landfalls on TW based on the environmental factors in the preseason. The comprehensive predictor sampling and multiple linear regression show that the 850-hPa meridional wind over the west of the Antarctic Peninsula in January, the 300-hPa specific humidity over the open ocean southwest of Australia in January, the 300-hPa relative vorticity over the west of the Sea of Okhotsk in March, and the sea surface temperature in the South Indian Ocean in April, are the most significant predictors. The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.87. The model is validated by the leave-one-out and nine-fold cross-validation methods, and recent 9-yr observations (2014–2022). The Antarctic Oscillation, variabilities of the western Pacific subtropical high, Asian summer monsoon, and oceanic tunnel are the possible physical linkages or mechanisms behind the model result. The SYSU Model exhibits a 98% hit rate in 1979–2022 (43 out of 44), suggesting an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TC landfalls on TW.</div><div>摘要</div><div>本文利用1979–2013年的两个主流再分析数据集, 提出了一个中山大学 (SYSU) 热带气旋统计季节预报模型, 基于4个季前环境因子对登陆台湾岛的热带气旋数量进行预报. 模型通过了留一法, 九折交叉验证法和近9年观测数据 (2014–2022) 的验证, 模型结果与实际观测的相关系数达0.87. 南极涛动, 西太平洋副热带高压变化, 亚洲夏季风和海洋通道是模型潜在的物理联系或机制. SYSU模型在1979–2022年期间的预报准确率为98%, 表现出其业务应用价值.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100554"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-02-23DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100482
Zhefan Gao , Chaoxia Yuan
EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Hence, the historical simulation (1950–1979) and future projection under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (2020–2049) in EC-Earth3P-HR are adopted to explore possible changes in the BSISO's modification of WNP TCG under global warming to enhance the understanding of TC activities in the WNP. Results show that the BSISO circulation in the WNP shifts northeastward under global warming. This leads to enhanced convection in a northwest–southeast-oriented band crossing the WNP. Along the band, the BSISO-related TCG anomalies are enhanced. Analyses of genesis potential index show that changes in the BSISO-related mid-tropospheric relative humidity play the dominant role in modifying the BSISO's impacts on WNP TCG under global warming. The enhanced BSISO convection in the band moistens the middle troposphere, which helps reduce the entrainment of generally dry mid-tropospheric air in the updrafts and the modification of the boundary layer by the downdraft of generally dry mid-tropospheric air, leading to enhanced TCG.
{"title":"Changes in tropical cyclone response to the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the western North Pacific under global warming in EC-Earth3P-HR","authors":"Zhefan Gao , Chaoxia Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100482","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100482","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>EC-Earth3P-HR reproduces well the observed Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) and its impacts on tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Hence, the historical simulation (1950–1979) and future projection under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (2020–2049) in EC-Earth3P-HR are adopted to explore possible changes in the BSISO's modification of WNP TCG under global warming to enhance the understanding of TC activities in the WNP. Results show that the BSISO circulation in the WNP shifts northeastward under global warming. This leads to enhanced convection in a northwest–southeast-oriented band crossing the WNP. Along the band, the BSISO-related TCG anomalies are enhanced. Analyses of genesis potential index show that changes in the BSISO-related mid-tropospheric relative humidity play the dominant role in modifying the BSISO's impacts on WNP TCG under global warming. The enhanced BSISO convection in the band moistens the middle troposphere, which helps reduce the entrainment of generally dry mid-tropospheric air in the updrafts and the modification of the boundary layer by the downdraft of generally dry mid-tropospheric air, leading to enhanced TCG.</div><div>摘要</div><div>北半球夏季季内振荡 (BSISO) 对西北太平洋 (WNP) 热带气旋形成 (TCG) 有显著的影响, 并且为TC的次季节预报提供重要依据, 因此研究其在全球变暖下的变化有重要意义. EC-Earth3P-HR模式较好地再现了观测到的BSISO及其对TCG的影响. 因此, 采用EC-Earth3P-HR的历史模拟 (1950–1979) 和SSP5-8.5情景 (2020–2049) 下的未来预估, 探讨全球变暖下BSISO对WNP上TCG调制的可能变化. 结果表明, 在全球变暖影响下, WNP上的BSISO环流向东北方向移动, 表现为西北-东南方向分布的增强对流带. 在对流带上, BSISO相关的TCG异常增强. 成因潜力指数分析表明, 全球变暖背景下, 与BSISO相关的对流层中部相对湿度的变化对BSISO对TCG的调制起主导作用. 带内增强的BSISO对流使对流层中部空气变湿润, 这有利于减少上升气流对通常干燥的对流层空气的夹带以及下沉气流对边界层的修正, 从而导致TCG的增强.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100482"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140464770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-06-10DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100533
Lingfeng Sun , Qingqing Li
In 2021, Cempaka, a tiny tropical cyclone, made landfall in China. As the TC intensified prior to landfall, the tropical cyclone size measured with precipitation decreased significantly. A numerical simulation was conducted to examine the possible processes modulating the storm size. Azimuthally mean potential vorticity (PV) was found to decrease mainly in the middle to upper troposphere between 50- and 80-km radii. The PV budget results indicate that the advection and generation of mean PV associated with asymmetric processes, rather than the symmetric processes, primarily contributed to the decrease in mean PV. These asymmetric processes leading to a negative PV tendency were likely associated with inactive outer rainbands. In contrast, the tangential winds simultaneously expanded radially outward, possibly related to inner-core diabatic heating. The findings here emphasize the importance of outer rainband activity in tropical cyclone size change.
{"title":"Numerical simulation of size contraction of Typhoon Cempaka (2021)","authors":"Lingfeng Sun , Qingqing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100533","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100533","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In 2021, Cempaka, a tiny tropical cyclone, made landfall in China. As the TC intensified prior to landfall, the tropical cyclone size measured with precipitation decreased significantly. A numerical simulation was conducted to examine the possible processes modulating the storm size. Azimuthally mean potential vorticity (PV) was found to decrease mainly in the middle to upper troposphere between 50- and 80-km radii. The PV budget results indicate that the advection and generation of mean PV associated with asymmetric processes, rather than the symmetric processes, primarily contributed to the decrease in mean PV. These asymmetric processes leading to a negative PV tendency were likely associated with inactive outer rainbands. In contrast, the tangential winds simultaneously expanded radially outward, possibly related to inner-core diabatic heating. The findings here emphasize the importance of outer rainband activity in tropical cyclone size change.</div><div>摘要</div><div>2021年台风“查帕卡”增强过程中风场向外扩张, 但卫星云图显示降水范围减小. 高分辨率数值模拟结果显示, “查帕卡”降水范围减小对应着50–80km半径处对流层中层位涡的减小. 位涡诊断结果表明, 非对称过程是导致上述位涡减小的关键物理过程, 而非对称过程主要同外雨带活动减弱有关. 上述结果强调了外雨带活动对热带气旋尺度变化的潜在重要影响.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100533"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141393846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100555
Qiushi Wen , Xuefen Zhang , Sheng Hu , Peitao Zhao , Shuixin Zhong , Zhenyu Liu , Zhongkuo Zhao , Jiahao Liang , Guangfeng Dai , Chenzhong Zhang , Mengjie Li , Ling Huang
Based on the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS), the authors conducted a collaborative assimilation forecasting experiment utilizing both Beidou radiosonde and drone-dropped (HAIYAN-I) radiosonde data in September 2023. Three assimilation experimental groups were designed as follows: Beidou radiosonde assimilation, drone-dropped radiosonde assimilation, and collaborative assimilation of Beidou and drone-dropped radiosonde data (hereinafter referred to as “Beidou-drop”). Additionally, a control group of operational forecasts without these data assimilations was set up. The results indicate that the operational forecast path in the control group deviated northward from the actual path. Besides, the Beidou-drop group showed the most significant improvement in terms of forecasting the typhoon path at 60 to 90 h lead times. Specifically, the 72 h and 90 h path errors were reduced by 66.8 and 82.4 km, respectively, resulting in a much more accurate forecast of Typhoon Haikui's landing point, at the coastal junction of Fujian and Guangdong. Furthermore, the collaborative assimilation revealed a notable impact on improving the forecast of wind and rain associated with Haikui's landfall, aligning more closely with the real case. A marked rise was also seen in the precipitation score of the Beidou-drop group, where the 50 mm TS (threat score) of the 72 h lead time increased from 0.33 in the control experiment to 0.75, and the 100 mm TS rose from 0.18 to 0.39.
{"title":"Collaborative assimilation experiment of Beidou radiosonde and drone-dropped radiosonde based on CMA-TRAMS","authors":"Qiushi Wen , Xuefen Zhang , Sheng Hu , Peitao Zhao , Shuixin Zhong , Zhenyu Liu , Zhongkuo Zhao , Jiahao Liang , Guangfeng Dai , Chenzhong Zhang , Mengjie Li , Ling Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on the China Meteorological Administration's Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS), the authors conducted a collaborative assimilation forecasting experiment utilizing both Beidou radiosonde and drone-dropped (HAIYAN-I) radiosonde data in September 2023. Three assimilation experimental groups were designed as follows: Beidou radiosonde assimilation, drone-dropped radiosonde assimilation, and collaborative assimilation of Beidou and drone-dropped radiosonde data (hereinafter referred to as “Beidou-drop”). Additionally, a control group of operational forecasts without these data assimilations was set up. The results indicate that the operational forecast path in the control group deviated northward from the actual path. Besides, the Beidou-drop group showed the most significant improvement in terms of forecasting the typhoon path at 60 to 90 h lead times. Specifically, the 72 h and 90 h path errors were reduced by 66.8 and 82.4 km, respectively, resulting in a much more accurate forecast of Typhoon Haikui's landing point, at the coastal junction of Fujian and Guangdong. Furthermore, the collaborative assimilation revealed a notable impact on improving the forecast of wind and rain associated with Haikui's landfall, aligning more closely with the real case. A marked rise was also seen in the precipitation score of the Beidou-drop group, where the 50 mm TS (threat score) of the 72 h lead time increased from 0.33 in the control experiment to 0.75, and the 100 mm TS rose from 0.18 to 0.39.</div><div>摘要</div><div>基于中国气象局南海台风模式CMA-TRAMS, 开展了北斗探空和无人机下投探空协同同化预报试验, 分别开展了北斗探空同化, 无人机下投探空同化, 北斗和下投探空 (beidou-drop) 协同同化试验. 结果表明, CMA-TRAMS业务预报路径较实况偏北, 协同同化了北斗和下投探空的路径预报改进效果最显著, 对60–90小时路径预报均有改进, 72小时和90小时路径误差分别较减小66.8 km和82.4 km, 且台风海葵的登陆区域更趋于向实况 (闽粤沿海交界处); 协同同化了北斗和下投探空对台风“海葵”登陆风雨影响更为显著, 与实况更加吻合, 降水评分提升明显, 72小时预报的50 mm TS评分由对照试验的0.33提高至0.75; 100 mm降水TS评分由对照试验的0.18提高至0.39.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100555"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2025-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100594
Zhuoying Li , Wen Zhou
Against the backdrop of climate change, the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) has captured widespread attention. Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific (WNP) TCs. This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models. These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well. The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude. This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP. The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.
Against the backdrop of climate change, the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) has captured widespread attention. Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific (WNP) TCs. This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models. These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well. The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude. This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP. The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.摘要在全球变暖背景下, 热带气旋的活动变化引起广泛关注. 观测数据表明, 西北太平洋热带气旋年平均生成经度呈减小趋势. 本研究利用CMIP6-HighResMIP模式对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的经度变化进行研究, 这些高分辨率模式较好地捕捉了西北太平洋热带气旋的生成密度. 研究显示西北太平洋地区热带气旋生成经度呈现西移的趋势, 这一趋势与西北太平洋地区东南部热带气旋频率的显著减少有关. 本研究还讨论了大尺度环流模式的变化以及太平洋沃克环流的加强所造成的影响.
{"title":"Westward shift of western North Pacific tropical cyclones in CMIP6-HighResMIP models","authors":"Zhuoying Li , Wen Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100594","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Against the backdrop of climate change, the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) has captured widespread attention. Observational datasets indicate a declining trend in the genesis longitude of western North Pacific (WNP) TCs. This study investigates the zonal changes of WNP TCs with CMIP6-HighResMIP models. These models capture the genesis density of WNP TCs fairly well. The results reveal a westward shift in TC genesis longitude. This trend is associated with the significant reduction in the TC frequency over the southeastern WNP. The study also discusses changes in large-scale circulation patterns and the impact of the strengthening Pacific Walker circulation.</div><div>摘要</div><div>在全球变暖背景下, 热带气旋的活动变化引起广泛关注. 观测数据表明, 西北太平洋热带气旋年平均生成经度呈减小趋势. 本研究利用CMIP6-HighResMIP模式对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的经度变化进行研究, 这些高分辨率模式较好地捕捉了西北太平洋热带气旋的生成密度. 研究显示西北太平洋地区热带气旋生成经度呈现西移的趋势, 这一趋势与西北太平洋地区东南部热带气旋频率的显著减少有关. 本研究还讨论了大尺度环流模式的变化以及太平洋沃克环流的加强所造成的影响.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100594"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2025-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100608
Lili Lei , Jianfang Fei , Wen Zhou
{"title":"Theory and prediction of tropical cyclones and induced precipitation","authors":"Lili Lei , Jianfang Fei , Wen Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100608","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 2","pages":"Article 100608"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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