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Trends in recovery aid concentration following Hurricane Florence in North Carolina: exploring the role of physical damage, community vulnerability, and Hurricane Matthew 北卡罗来纳州佛罗伦萨飓风过后恢复援助集中的趋势:探讨物理损害、社区脆弱性和飓风马修的作用
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-11 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2109569
Julia Cardwell, C. Konrad
ABSTRACT The intensity of extreme events like hurricanes is predicted to increase. As such, the role of federal disaster aid programmes in assisting community recovery will also grow, and potential inequities in these programmes could compound in an increasing disaster landscape. This study analyzes recovery efforts after Hurricane Florence (2018) to identify trends in areas that were targeted for recovery aid. Using a series of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and spatial lag models, divergences in aid are investigated after controlling for physical damage and the study suggests that these divergences can be partially predicted by social and community factors, including characteristics that are typically associated with increased social vulnerability (such as high renter population, older housing stock, and high population of non-white residents). In addition, because North Carolina experienced two major hurricanes in the period of just two years (Hurricane Matthew in 2016), this study also analyzes the role of successive extremes in the outcomes of aid concentration and finds that communities successful in achieving aid after Hurricane Matthew were similarly successful after Hurricane Florence. Finally, the paper emphasises the importance of monitoring potential inequities in federal recovery aid payout, which can provide actionable opportunities for potential improvements to these programmes.
据预测,飓风等极端事件的强度将会增加。因此,联邦灾害援助方案在协助社区恢复方面的作用也将增加,这些方案中潜在的不平等可能在日益增加的灾害情况下加剧。本研究分析了佛罗伦萨飓风(2018年)后的恢复工作,以确定恢复援助目标地区的趋势。利用一系列普通最小二乘(OLS)和空间滞后模型,在控制了物理损害之后,研究了援助的差异,研究表明,这些差异可以通过社会和社区因素部分预测,包括通常与社会脆弱性增加相关的特征(如高租房人口、老年住房存量和高非白人居民人口)。此外,由于北卡罗来纳州在短短两年内经历了两次大飓风(2016年飓风马修),本研究还分析了连续极端事件对援助集中结果的作用,并发现在飓风马修之后成功实现援助的社区在飓风佛罗伦萨之后同样成功。最后,本文强调了监测联邦恢复援助支出中潜在不平等的重要性,这可以为这些计划的潜在改进提供可行的机会。
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引用次数: 1
Managed retreat from high-risk flood areas: exploring public attitudes and expectations about property buyouts 从高风险洪涝地区的管理撤退:探讨公众对房地产收购的态度和期望
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2095970
J. Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite
ABSTRACT Increasing flood risk requires governments to develop innovative solutions for flood risk management. The effectiveness of these solutions depends, in part, on their social acceptability. This paper presents the findings of a national survey to explore the social acceptability of property buyouts as a form of managed retreat from flood risk in Canada. It discusses public attitudes and expectations towards property buyout programmes in high-risk flood zones, including their salience, essential design elements, and factors that would influence household acceptance of a property buyout offer. The results show there is an appetite for property buyout programmes to reduce flood risk in high-risk zones. Moreover, the social acceptability of such programmes is highest when participation is voluntary, flexible pricing options are combined with financial incentives, and programme design and implementation are transparent. Participants indicated costs for these programmes should be borne primarily by governments and shared between governments at different levels. The findings suggest that although property buyouts—and managed retreat more generally—are considered a socially acceptable approach to flood risk management, their efficacy will depend on programme design, stakeholder collaboration, and effective communication of risk to vulnerable populations. Policy recommendations are discussed in response to these findings.
日益增加的洪水风险要求政府制定洪水风险管理的创新解决方案。这些解决方案的有效性部分取决于社会对它们的接受程度。本文介绍了一项全国性调查的结果,该调查旨在探索加拿大社会对财产收购作为一种躲避洪水风险的管理形式的可接受性。它讨论了公众对高风险洪水地区财产买断计划的态度和期望,包括其重要性、基本设计元素以及影响家庭接受财产买断提议的因素。研究结果表明,在高风险地区,人们对房地产收购计划有兴趣,以降低洪水风险。此外,在自愿参与、灵活的定价办法与财政奖励相结合以及方案的设计和执行是透明的情况下,社会对这类方案的接受程度最高。与会者指出,这些方案的费用应主要由政府承担,并由各级政府分担。研究结果表明,尽管财产收购和更普遍的管理撤退被认为是一种社会可接受的洪水风险管理方法,但其有效性将取决于方案设计、利益相关者的合作以及对弱势群体的风险有效沟通。根据这些调查结果讨论了政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Social vulnerability to earthquake disaster: insights from the people of 48th ward of Dhaka South City, Bangladesh 地震灾害下的社会脆弱性:来自孟加拉国达卡南城第48区人民的见解
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2085075
M. Mahbubur Rahman, Md. Sadequr Rahman, Tasnim Jerin
ABSTRACT This study sheds light on investigating the root causes, dynamic pressure and unsafe conditions to the progression of social vulnerability of the people residing in 48th ward of Hazaribagh Thana, Dhaka South City (DSC) of Bangladesh. We employed qualitative method to explore people’s knowledge, views and perceptions on the production of social vulnerability to earthquake disasters. We utilized key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) to find out the research objectives. Applying purposive sampling, the study selected a total of 16 informants for conducting KIIs, and 25 informants were chosen for administering FGDs. Examining the Pressure and Release (PAR) model developed by Wisner et al., (2011), the research revealed that low income status of the family, single headed family, lack of proper health services, unavailability of urban emergency center, limited access to power, and political systems contributed to the production of root causes of the progression of social vulnerability. The dynamic pressures involved lack of appropriate skills, unplanned residences and industry, rapid population growth, which played vital role to the production of vulnerability. Finally, the poor housing materials, dangerous location, and lack of first aid documents found associated with the unsafe conditions of the creation of vulnerability of earthquake hazards.
本研究揭示了调查的根本原因,动态压力和不安全的条件,居住在孟加拉国达卡南城(DSC)哈扎里巴格塔纳第48区人民的社会脆弱性的进展。我们采用定性方法探讨人们对地震灾害社会脆弱性产生的认识、看法和感知。我们利用关键信息者访谈(KIIs)和焦点小组讨论(fgd)来确定研究目标。采用有目的抽样,研究共选择了16名被调查者进行kii, 25名被调查者进行fgd。通过对Wisner等人(2011)开发的压力与释放(PAR)模型的检验,研究发现,低收入家庭、单亲家庭、缺乏适当的卫生服务、城市应急中心不可用、获得权力的机会有限以及政治制度是造成社会脆弱性恶化的根本原因。动态压力包括缺乏适当的技能、没有计划的住宅和工业、人口迅速增长,这些都对脆弱性的产生起着至关重要的作用。最后,低劣的房屋材料,危险的位置,以及缺乏急救文件发现与不安全的条件有关,易造成地震灾害。
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引用次数: 5
Legislative amendments and the environmental impact assessment process in Istanbul 伊斯坦布尔的立法修订和环境影响评估进程
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-30 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2062286
Y. Türker, Aynur Aydin
ABSTRACT An environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a tool that has been used for more than 50 years to assess situations that may have future negative effects on the environment. This study has attempted to address the status of the EIA in Istanbul, a city founded 2500 years ago and, therefore, one of the oldest cities in the world. The study first defines the EIA and then discusses legislative amendments to the Turkish EIA Regulation, which are the most important source of problems in the application of EIAs in Turkey. Twenty amendments have been passed since the first EIA Regulation was entered into force, and these amendments have had significant effects on the application of EIAs. It has been determined that some of these amendments have expanded the scope of EIAs but others have narrowed the scope. In the last part of the study, the effects of these legislative amendments in the case of Istanbul are revealed. Graphics show that when an amendment in passed that narrows the scope of an EIA, the number of projects excluded from review by that EIA increases, and they are projects that could have a negative impact on the environment.
环境影响评估(EIA)是一种已经使用了50多年的工具,用于评估未来可能对环境产生负面影响的情况。本研究试图解决伊斯坦布尔的环境影响评估现状,这座城市建于2500年前,因此是世界上最古老的城市之一。本研究首先定义了环境影响评价,然后讨论了土耳其环境影响评价条例的立法修订,这是土耳其环境影响评价应用中最重要的问题来源。自首份环评规例生效以来,已通过二十项修订,这些修订对环评的应用产生重大影响。经确定,其中一些修订扩大了环评的范围,而另一些则缩小了范围。在研究的最后一部分,揭示了这些立法修正案对伊斯坦布尔的影响。图表显示,当通过了一项缩小环评范围的修正案时,被排除在环评审查之外的项目数量增加,这些项目可能对环境产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
Climate change and windstorm losses in Poland in the twenty-first century 21世纪波兰的气候变化和风暴损失
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2076646
J. Gaska
ABSTRACT Although windstorms are not as spectacular as large, fluvial floods, they cause significant losses every year. Due to the difficulties in measuring this damage, the literature on the impact of climate change on it is relatively scarce. The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of climate change on losses caused by windstorms in Poland over the twenty-first century. To do that, damage over threshold methodology is applied, in which losses depend on how much a given threshold is exceeded. In line with existing literature, the 98th percentile threshold and cubic damage function are applied to the data on the wind speed of gust from EURO-CORDEX simulations. As a result, it turns out that the losses caused by windstorms in Poland will increase in relative terms until 2100 by 29% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 32% in the RCP8.5 scenario. By 2050, these changes will be less significant, but still increases by 6% in RCP4.5 and 16% in RCP8.5 can be expected.
虽然风暴不像大的河流洪水那样壮观,但它们每年都会造成重大损失。由于难以测量这种损害,关于气候变化对其影响的文献相对较少。本文的目的是估计21世纪气候变化对波兰风暴造成的损失的影响。要做到这一点,应用了损害超过阈值的方法,其中损失取决于超过给定阈值的程度。根据已有文献,将98百分位阈值和三次损伤函数应用于EURO-CORDEX模拟的阵风风速数据。结果表明,在RCP4.5情景下,波兰风暴造成的损失相对而言在2100年前将增加29%,在RCP8.5情景下增加32%。到2050年,这些变化将不那么显著,但预计RCP4.5和RCP8.5仍将分别增长6%和16%。
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引用次数: 2
Risk perception, impact, and management by farmer households in Rajasthan (India) 印度拉贾斯坦邦农户的风险认知、影响和管理
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2035664
Vinita Kanwal, S. Sirohi, P. Chand
ABSTRACT The increasing frequency of droughts and floods is undermining sustainable agricultural development at the global level. The concerns are more profound in countries like India, where agriculture the primary source of livelihood is mainly rainfed. Based on the primary survey of 180 rural farm households in the highly natural disaster-prone state of India, this study elucidates how farm households perceive and respond to manage climatic shocks and associated risks. Results show that the majority of the households perceived the occurrence of adverse weather events, but a sizeable proportion of them in the drought-prone regions appear to be neglecting or downplaying the risk outcomes. The households in flood prone region were proactive in controlling and monitoring risks and resorted to multiple risk mitigation measures like diversification of crop and enterprises, changing agronomic practices, etc. The economic position of the households played the most significant role in influencing the adoption of a particular strategy. The weak empirical relationship between the communication variables and management of weather-induced risks was reflective of the lack of quality information available to the farmers through various sources.
日益频繁的干旱和洪涝灾害正在破坏全球农业的可持续发展。在印度这样的国家,这种担忧更为深刻,农业是主要的生计来源,主要依靠雨养。基于对自然灾害频发的印度180户农村农户的初步调查,本研究阐明了农户如何感知和应对气候冲击及相关风险。结果表明,大多数家庭意识到恶劣天气事件的发生,但在干旱易发地区,相当大比例的家庭似乎忽视或淡化了风险结果。洪水易发地区的家庭积极主动地控制和监测风险,并采取多种风险缓解措施,如作物和企业多样化、改变农艺做法等。家庭的经济状况在影响特定战略的采用方面发挥了最重要的作用。沟通变量与天气风险管理之间的微弱经验关系反映了农民缺乏通过各种来源获得的高质量信息。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change research in Taiwan: beyond following the mainstream 台湾气候变迁研究:超越追随主流
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2074954
Chia-Chi Lee, Kuo-Ching Huang, Shih-Yun Kuo, Chien-Ke Cheng, C. Tung, Tzu-Ming Liu
ABSTRACT Climate change research has emerged over the past few decades as a vibrant field of inquiry with significant impact on society, economics and politics. Analysing the context of past climate change research is necessary to check progress, gaps, needs and to optimise the benefits of future development. This paper analyses nearly 6000 government-funded climate change research projects in Taiwan from 1993 to 2020 based on data in Government Research Bulletin (GRB), supplemented by reviewing Taiwan’s science and technology policies to obtain a constructive research discourse. While the Taiwan government has continued to actively promote climate change research following the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), it suffers from uneven development of research fields, lack of social and interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary research, and a gap between scientific research and decision-making. While these individual issues can be addressed, they stem from a core factor: the lack of determination and commitment of politicians and government to implement recommended mitigation/adaptation policies. This is one of very few papers investigating climate change research from a national perspective and the first focusing on Taiwan, and is of potential interest to researchers, policymakers and members of the general public concerned about national-scale climate change research.
在过去的几十年里,气候变化研究成为一个充满活力的研究领域,对社会、经济和政治产生了重大影响。分析过去气候变化研究的背景对于检查进展、差距、需求和优化未来发展的效益是必要的。本文以政府研究公报(GRB)资料为基础,分析1993 ~ 2020年台湾近6000个政府资助的气候变化研究项目,并辅以台湾科技政策的回顾,以获得建设性的研究话语。自联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)成立以来,台湾政府持续积极推动气候变化研究,但研究领域发展不均衡,缺乏社会性和跨学科研究,科研与决策之间存在差距。虽然这些个别问题可以解决,但它们源于一个核心因素:政治家和政府缺乏执行建议的缓解/适应政策的决心和承诺。本文是为数不多的从国家角度研究气候变化的论文之一,也是第一篇以台湾为研究对象的论文,对关注国家尺度气候变化研究的研究者、政策制定者和公众具有潜在的兴趣。
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引用次数: 3
The long-term frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms and associated losses in Odisha, India 印度奥里萨邦气旋风暴的长期频率和强度及相关损失
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-01 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2069665
M. Mishra, T. Acharyya, Namita Pattnaik, M. Dash, P. Das, S. Mishra
ABSTRACT We investigated long-term (1890–2020) frequency changes in depressions (D), cyclonic storms (CS) and severe cyclonic storms (SCS), along Odisha coast. We reviewed the fatalities, damage to properties and livestock and linked with the existing cyclone disaster management policy of the state. The decadal frequencies of D and CS show marked declining pattern after reaching their peak in 1930–1939 and 1890–1899, respectively. On an average, the SCS hits slightly more than two times per decade. No notable change in the long-term frequency of SCS was noticed, though last five decades (1970–2020) witnessed an upsurge in % contribution of SCS (13%) to the total atmospheric disturbances, and the maximum contribution (20%) was in the latest decade (2010–2020). Human fatalities exceeded more than 5000 in 1895, 1967, 1971, 1972, and 1999 cyclones. Establishment of SDMA (State Disaster Management Authority), efficient forecasting and evacuation strategies have successfully brought down the fatalities, but the loss of livestock, biodiversity, livelihoods, and infrastructure remains a concern. Decision-makers should strive to increase the resilience of at-risk communities through planting protective mangrove cover, educating and ensuring better living conditions, and implementing 4R (Robustness, Redundancy, Resourcefulness and Rapid response) resilience principles for the infrastructure.
摘要:研究了奥里萨邦沿海低气压(D)、气旋风暴(CS)和强气旋风暴(SCS)的长期(1890-2020)频率变化。我们审查了死亡人数、财产和牲畜损失,并与该州现有的气旋灾害管理政策联系起来。D和CS的年代际频率分别在1930 ~ 1939年和1890 ~ 1899年达到峰值后呈明显的下降趋势。平均而言,南海每十年撞击两次多一点。在近50年(1970-2020年),南海对大气扰动总量的贡献率上升了13%,在近10年(2010-2020年)的贡献率最大(20%),但长期频率变化不显著。在1895年、1967年、1971年、1972年和1999年的飓风中,死亡人数超过5000人。国家灾害管理局(SDMA)的建立、有效的预报和疏散策略成功地降低了死亡人数,但牲畜、生物多样性、生计和基础设施的损失仍然令人担忧。决策者应努力通过种植保护性红树林、教育和确保更好的生活条件,以及对基础设施实施4R(稳健、冗余、机智和快速反应)恢复力原则,提高面临风险社区的恢复力。
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引用次数: 2
Cultural worldviews and the perception of natural hazard risk in Australia 文化世界观和对澳大利亚自然灾害风险的认知
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-04-04 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2022.2050668
M. Parsons, A. Lykins
ABSTRACT The cultural theory of risk proposes that risk perception is biased by sociality and the maintenance of four ways or life, or cultural worldviews: hierarchism, egalitarianism, individualism or communitarianism. This study examined whether cultural worldviews influenced the perception of the risk of bushfire, flood, storm and earthquake in Australia. A sample of 503 participants completed two questionnaires: cultural worldviews and natural hazard risk perception. Only 30% of respondents held strongly hierarchical, egalitarian, individualist or communitarian worldviews. Several aspects of natural hazard risk perception were predicted by cultural worldviews, but associations were weak. Individualists perceived greater risk of, and responsibility for, natural hazards possibly because they perceive them to be a disruptive threat that limits freedom. Egalitarians perceived greater risk from bushfire or storm, possibly because they understand the potential for social impacts from these events and favour collective response. Notions of control and mitigation of natural hazards were associated with hierarchism. Communitarianism was not a predictor of natural hazard risk perception. However, most people don’t view natural hazards as a threat to their sociality and way of life. Single heuristics, such as the cultural theory of risk, are unlikely to capture the complexity of natural hazard risk perception in Australia.
风险文化理论认为,风险感知是由社会性和四种生活方式或文化世界观所决定的:等级主义、平等主义、个人主义或社群主义。这项研究考察了文化世界观是否会影响澳大利亚人对森林大火、洪水、风暴和地震风险的认知。503名参与者完成了两份调查问卷:文化世界观和自然灾害风险认知。只有30%的受访者持有强烈的等级制、平等主义、个人主义或社群主义世界观。文化世界观可以预测自然灾害风险感知的几个方面,但关联性较弱。个人主义者认为自然灾害的风险和责任更大,可能是因为他们认为自然灾害是一种限制自由的破坏性威胁。平等主义者认为森林大火或风暴带来的风险更大,可能是因为他们了解这些事件对社会的潜在影响,并倾向于集体应对。控制和减轻自然灾害的概念与等级制度有关。社群主义不是自然灾害风险感知的预测因子。然而,大多数人并不认为自然灾害对他们的社交和生活方式构成威胁。单一的启发式,如风险文化理论,不太可能捕捉到澳大利亚自然灾害风险感知的复杂性。
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引用次数: 3
Drought-related media analysis from Andalusia and São Paulo 来自安达卢西亚和<s:1>圣保罗的干旱相关媒体分析
IF 4 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1932712
Jesús Vargas Molina, Pilar Paneque Salgado, Pedro Augusto Breda Fontão
ABSTRACT Drought risk is a complex phenomenon that leads to different interpretations, public understanding of causes, consequences and adaptation strategies and, therefore, different responses. To date, and despite the rise of social media, mass media are still the main way through which society receives information about drought, mainly owing to accessibility and periodicity. Media content analysis can be useful not only for identifying the relevant stakeholders in debates about definition and management but also for monitoring the evolution of key issues over time. This work presents a methodology to systematise drought-related media content analysis. The methodology has been tested in two widely different case studies: The Autonomous Community of Andalusia in Spain and the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo in Brazil, which were recently exposed to drought. Results show that the methodology is applicable to different settings, regardless of the number of media outlets and the news stories analysed. The paper incidentally also shows the resistance to the paradigm shift in terms of drought management measures, where in both cases traditional measures based on increasing water availability continue to predominate over the measures of risk planning and mitigation.
干旱风险是一个复杂的现象,导致不同的解释,公众对原因、后果和适应策略的理解,因此,不同的应对措施。迄今为止,尽管社交媒体兴起,大众媒体仍然是社会获取干旱信息的主要途径,主要原因是其可及性和周期性。媒体内容分析不仅有助于在关于定义和管理的辩论中确定相关的利益相关者,而且有助于监测关键问题随时间的演变。这项工作提出了一种系统化干旱相关媒体内容分析的方法。这种方法已经在两个截然不同的案例研究中得到了检验:西班牙的安达卢西亚自治区和巴西的圣保罗大都会区,这两个地区最近遭受了干旱。结果表明,该方法适用于不同的设置,无论媒体的数量和分析的新闻故事。顺便提一下,该文件还显示了在干旱管理措施方面对范式转变的抵制,在这两种情况下,基于增加水资源供应的传统措施继续占主导地位,而不是风险规划和缓解措施。
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引用次数: 2
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