Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1945996
Cloe Mirenda, Elena Lazos Chavero
ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse the cultural dimension of vulnerability from a gender perspective in two rural localities of the South Coast of Jalisco, Mexico. This region is exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards and it is expected that, as a result of climate change, its intensity will increase, causing greater disaster risks. We analyse three culturally determined factors that reproduce vulnerabilities differentiated by gender. First, the sexual division of labour, which although showing signs of change in terms of a greater entry of women into the labour market, remains unchanged in assigning unpaid work to the female gender. Inequities related to the sexual division of labour are reinforced during and after the disaster, increasing the vulnerabilities of women. Second, we analyse the differential distribution of power expressed in decision-making processes in the family. Third, we address the masculinization of political power both in terms of a lower presence of women in political participation at the community and municipal level, and in terms of the historically masculinized modalities in the exercise of power that women are adopting. Finally, we insist on the need to build a culture based on equity to consistently reduce vulnerability to disaster risks.
{"title":"Cultural vulnerability, risk reduction and gender equity: two Mexican coastal communities","authors":"Cloe Mirenda, Elena Lazos Chavero","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1945996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1945996","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse the cultural dimension of vulnerability from a gender perspective in two rural localities of the South Coast of Jalisco, Mexico. This region is exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards and it is expected that, as a result of climate change, its intensity will increase, causing greater disaster risks. We analyse three culturally determined factors that reproduce vulnerabilities differentiated by gender. First, the sexual division of labour, which although showing signs of change in terms of a greater entry of women into the labour market, remains unchanged in assigning unpaid work to the female gender. Inequities related to the sexual division of labour are reinforced during and after the disaster, increasing the vulnerabilities of women. Second, we analyse the differential distribution of power expressed in decision-making processes in the family. Third, we address the masculinization of political power both in terms of a lower presence of women in political participation at the community and municipal level, and in terms of the historically masculinized modalities in the exercise of power that women are adopting. Finally, we insist on the need to build a culture based on equity to consistently reduce vulnerability to disaster risks.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82827412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-14DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1938506
B. Suldovsky, Lauren B. Frank
ABSTRACT Studying air pollution provides an opportunity to explore public opinion about the environment from a health perspective, and examine how the often-siloed fields of health, environmental, and science communication might inform each other to generate a more holistic understanding of these issues. This raises an important question for social scientists: what is the best way to understand public perception of hazards that rest at the intersection of health, the environment, and science? In this study, we examine the extent to which risk perceptions and environmental values predict individual-level protective behaviours and civic action surrounding air pollution in Portland, Oregon. We find that risk perceptions significantly predict individual-level protective behaviour, civic action, and engagement preferences to varying degrees. We also find that the inclusion of environmental values offers additional explanatory power. Results demonstrate that combining approaches from health, environmental, and science communication offers a more holistic understanding of public perception of and engagement with environmental risks.
{"title":"Strengthening public engagement on environmental hazards: insights from cross-disciplinary air pollution research","authors":"B. Suldovsky, Lauren B. Frank","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1938506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1938506","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Studying air pollution provides an opportunity to explore public opinion about the environment from a health perspective, and examine how the often-siloed fields of health, environmental, and science communication might inform each other to generate a more holistic understanding of these issues. This raises an important question for social scientists: what is the best way to understand public perception of hazards that rest at the intersection of health, the environment, and science? In this study, we examine the extent to which risk perceptions and environmental values predict individual-level protective behaviours and civic action surrounding air pollution in Portland, Oregon. We find that risk perceptions significantly predict individual-level protective behaviour, civic action, and engagement preferences to varying degrees. We also find that the inclusion of environmental values offers additional explanatory power. Results demonstrate that combining approaches from health, environmental, and science communication offers a more holistic understanding of public perception of and engagement with environmental risks.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81005928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-08DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1932405
A. Gissing, Matthew Timms, S. Browning, R. Crompton, J. McAneney
ABSTRACT Compound disasters, defined here as two or more disasters occurring within a three-month window and within a given jurisdiction, pose complex disaster coordination and recovery challenges. Planning for the management of such disasters would benefit from a better understanding of their frequency and their underlying climate influences. Here we utilise an Australian natural disaster database of normalised insurance losses to show compound disasters are responsible for the highest seasonal financial losses. Though their component events occur most frequently in the eastern seaboard, they may also comprise disasters on both sides of the continent. There has been no temporal trend in their frequency since 1966. A new compound disaster scale is proposed for Australian conditions. A bootstrapping analysis reveals the pairing of Bushfire and Tropical Cyclone to occur far less often than would be expected by chance. This is because these perils occur most frequently under contrasting climate states. Climate variability influences the frequency, intensity and type of perils contributing to compound disasters with the clearest relationship being with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Given that ENSO is the most predictable climate driver at seasonal timescales, this may assist better forecasting of their occurrence and higher degrees of readiness.
{"title":"Compound natural disasters in Australia: a historical analysis","authors":"A. Gissing, Matthew Timms, S. Browning, R. Crompton, J. McAneney","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1932405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1932405","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Compound disasters, defined here as two or more disasters occurring within a three-month window and within a given jurisdiction, pose complex disaster coordination and recovery challenges. Planning for the management of such disasters would benefit from a better understanding of their frequency and their underlying climate influences. Here we utilise an Australian natural disaster database of normalised insurance losses to show compound disasters are responsible for the highest seasonal financial losses. Though their component events occur most frequently in the eastern seaboard, they may also comprise disasters on both sides of the continent. There has been no temporal trend in their frequency since 1966. A new compound disaster scale is proposed for Australian conditions. A bootstrapping analysis reveals the pairing of Bushfire and Tropical Cyclone to occur far less often than would be expected by chance. This is because these perils occur most frequently under contrasting climate states. Climate variability influences the frequency, intensity and type of perils contributing to compound disasters with the clearest relationship being with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Given that ENSO is the most predictable climate driver at seasonal timescales, this may assist better forecasting of their occurrence and higher degrees of readiness.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73314497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-31DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1933885
M. Ghorbanzadeh, Mohammadreza Koloushani, E. Ozguven, Arda Vanli, R. Arghandeh
ABSTRACT Hurricanes affect millions of people in the U.S. every year and cause billion-dollar economic losses. Florida is one of the states in the U.S. which is vulnerable to hurricanes and major infrastructure damages were reported due to these extreme events such as Hurricane Hermine (2016). This study aims to assess the impacts of Hermine on the transportation network of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida, using a spatial-analytical approach and real-world hurricane data on roadway closures, power outages, power network configuration, and other storm-related variables. First, a geographic information systems (GIS)-based analysis was utilised to obtain the spatial patterns of hurricane-induced roadway closures along with power outages, power lines, downed trees, and the city’s flood hazard zones. Second, a statistical model was developed to understand the association between the aforementioned variables and roadway closures. The spatial model results revealed that the roadway closures and power outages almost have the same patterns, and the city centre experienced more disruptions than other areas. The statistical model findings indicated that the power outages and power lines have strong relationships with roadway closures. The obtained knowledge of this study can provide valuable information for city officials to prepare better emergency policies for future potential hurricanes.
{"title":"City transportation network vulnerability to disasters: the case of Hurricane Hermine in Florida","authors":"M. Ghorbanzadeh, Mohammadreza Koloushani, E. Ozguven, Arda Vanli, R. Arghandeh","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1933885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1933885","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Hurricanes affect millions of people in the U.S. every year and cause billion-dollar economic losses. Florida is one of the states in the U.S. which is vulnerable to hurricanes and major infrastructure damages were reported due to these extreme events such as Hurricane Hermine (2016). This study aims to assess the impacts of Hermine on the transportation network of Tallahassee, the capital of Florida, using a spatial-analytical approach and real-world hurricane data on roadway closures, power outages, power network configuration, and other storm-related variables. First, a geographic information systems (GIS)-based analysis was utilised to obtain the spatial patterns of hurricane-induced roadway closures along with power outages, power lines, downed trees, and the city’s flood hazard zones. Second, a statistical model was developed to understand the association between the aforementioned variables and roadway closures. The spatial model results revealed that the roadway closures and power outages almost have the same patterns, and the city centre experienced more disruptions than other areas. The statistical model findings indicated that the power outages and power lines have strong relationships with roadway closures. The obtained knowledge of this study can provide valuable information for city officials to prepare better emergency policies for future potential hurricanes.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80960990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-27DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1932404
O. F. Kasim, B. Wahab, Michael Femi Oweniwe
ABSTRACT The world is increasingly characterised by uncertainty, complexity and rapid change while vulnerability to potential disasters is equally increasing. The situation is more dire in countries where governments are unable to manage land use and development in rapidly growing towns and cities. Lagos, a major city in Nigeria, is notorious for flooding, owing to its being lowland, and this is compounded by inadequate planning and uncoordinated physical development. A systematic study of urban expansion in Lagos was done using Landsat ETM, OLI and Google Earth imageries for 2000, 2013 and 2019 to analyse land use and land cover change, and pattern of encroachment of physical development into vegetation cover and flood plains in Lagos. The comparison of the three Land Use Land Cover Change (LU/LC) schemes, indicates that built-up areas accounted for about 50.0% of land use in Lagos in 2019. The increase is almost thrice the extent recorded in the year 2000. As the pace of growth quickens, new structures deplete vegetation and fuels lateral expansion into marginal land. Adherence to land use planning regulation, vertical expansion and flood-plain-buy-back were recommended as strategies to mitigate flood risk.
{"title":"Urban expansion and enhanced flood risk in Africa: The example of Lagos","authors":"O. F. Kasim, B. Wahab, Michael Femi Oweniwe","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1932404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1932404","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The world is increasingly characterised by uncertainty, complexity and rapid change while vulnerability to potential disasters is equally increasing. The situation is more dire in countries where governments are unable to manage land use and development in rapidly growing towns and cities. Lagos, a major city in Nigeria, is notorious for flooding, owing to its being lowland, and this is compounded by inadequate planning and uncoordinated physical development. A systematic study of urban expansion in Lagos was done using Landsat ETM, OLI and Google Earth imageries for 2000, 2013 and 2019 to analyse land use and land cover change, and pattern of encroachment of physical development into vegetation cover and flood plains in Lagos. The comparison of the three Land Use Land Cover Change (LU/LC) schemes, indicates that built-up areas accounted for about 50.0% of land use in Lagos in 2019. The increase is almost thrice the extent recorded in the year 2000. As the pace of growth quickens, new structures deplete vegetation and fuels lateral expansion into marginal land. Adherence to land use planning regulation, vertical expansion and flood-plain-buy-back were recommended as strategies to mitigate flood risk.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79357799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-13DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1926216
Han Yang, Jun He, Yufang Su, Jian-chu Xu
ABSTRACT Based on interviews with 1216 randomly selected households in Yunnan, Southwest China, we assessed local people's perceptions and coping strategies on climate change, and determined its influencing factors. Results indicated that 72% of the respondents perceived climate change-associated impacts, while 82% and 85% perceived the changes in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Most respondents perceived climate warming and decreases in precipitation. Drought and erratic rainfall are the most serious impacts. Approximately 40% of respondents who perceived climate change have chosen to do nothing. Others have reacted by migrating for work, introducing new crop types, giving up planting certain crops, and investing in irrigation infrastructure. The perception and response strategies of local residents to climate change were mainly influenced by the factors related to geographical characteristics and residents’ livelihoods. There are significant differences in perception of climate change among Tibetan, Yi and Naxi, while no significant differences in response strategies have been found among ethnic minorities. An integrated programme combining indigenous knowledge with scientific technology and government policies is proposed to enhance the adaptive capacity to climate change of ethnic populations in mountain areas. The policy implications call for understanding of cultural difference that affect people's perception and adaptation to climate change.
{"title":"Adaptation to climate change: ethnic groups in Southwest China","authors":"Han Yang, Jun He, Yufang Su, Jian-chu Xu","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1926216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1926216","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 Based on interviews with 1216 randomly selected households in Yunnan, Southwest China, we assessed local people's perceptions and coping strategies on climate change, and determined its influencing factors. Results indicated that 72% of the respondents perceived climate change-associated impacts, while 82% and 85% perceived the changes in temperature and precipitation, respectively. Most respondents perceived climate warming and decreases in precipitation. Drought and erratic rainfall are the most serious impacts. Approximately 40% of respondents who perceived climate change have chosen to do nothing. Others have reacted by migrating for work, introducing new crop types, giving up planting certain crops, and investing in irrigation infrastructure. The perception and response strategies of local residents to climate change were mainly influenced by the factors related to geographical characteristics and residents’ livelihoods. There are significant differences in perception of climate change among Tibetan, Yi and Naxi, while no significant differences in response strategies have been found among ethnic minorities. An integrated programme combining indigenous knowledge with scientific technology and government policies is proposed to enhance the adaptive capacity to climate change of ethnic populations in mountain areas. The policy implications call for understanding of cultural difference that affect people's perception and adaptation to climate change.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78107578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-11DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1925623
Juheon Lee
ABSTRACT This study examined how Taiwanese individuals’ preparedness behaviours regarding natural hazards are linked to their social connections and to their direct/indirect exposure to previous natural hazards. Using 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey data, this study investigated how the respondents’ membership in voluntary associations, damage experience caused by previous hazards, and perceived risk of potential hazards affect their adoption of hazard preparedness behaviours. The study distinguished three types of associations—civic, reward-based, and social/recreational—and three types of damage from natural hazards—property loss, psychological trauma, and injury—to determine whether they have different effects on the adoption of hazard preparedness behaviours. The results of this study indicate that the members of voluntary associations were more prepared for natural hazards than non-members; the members of civic and reward-based associations tended to take significantly more preparedness measures than non-members, whereas the members of social/recreational associations did not. In particular, the members of reward-based associations were likely to initiate their first preparation measures. Meanwhile, both damage experience and risk perception showed positive effects on the adoption of preparedness behaviours, but these effects were stronger for typhoons than for earthquakes.
{"title":"Voluntary associations and hazard preparedness behaviour amongst Taiwanese individuals","authors":"Juheon Lee","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1925623","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1925623","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examined how Taiwanese individuals’ preparedness behaviours regarding natural hazards are linked to their social connections and to their direct/indirect exposure to previous natural hazards. Using 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey data, this study investigated how the respondents’ membership in voluntary associations, damage experience caused by previous hazards, and perceived risk of potential hazards affect their adoption of hazard preparedness behaviours. The study distinguished three types of associations—civic, reward-based, and social/recreational—and three types of damage from natural hazards—property loss, psychological trauma, and injury—to determine whether they have different effects on the adoption of hazard preparedness behaviours. The results of this study indicate that the members of voluntary associations were more prepared for natural hazards than non-members; the members of civic and reward-based associations tended to take significantly more preparedness measures than non-members, whereas the members of social/recreational associations did not. In particular, the members of reward-based associations were likely to initiate their first preparation measures. Meanwhile, both damage experience and risk perception showed positive effects on the adoption of preparedness behaviours, but these effects were stronger for typhoons than for earthquakes.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74779749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-15DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1912694
D. Morrison, L. Beevers, G. Wright, M. D. Stewart
ABSTRACT Index-based approaches are a popular method for assessing societal vulnerability to flooding, many of which differ in terms of indicator selection, underlying social data, spatial scale and aggregation methods. They are typically assessed at geographically broad spatial scales to provide a spatial picture of vulnerability for policy and decision-makers. However, aggregation of vulnerability at broad scales also potentially masks the true vulnerability of an area as the underlying data is not spatially refined. This research expands on a previous indicator approach, the Social Flood Vulnerability Index by using geodemographics to facilitate household and postcode level vulnerability assessment to explore the impact of spatial aggregation on vulnerability at national and local levels in Scotland. The results suggest that applying geodemographics to an existing approach increases spatial heterogeneity and has the potential to be adopted as a new dataset to guide indicator selection in future.
{"title":"The impact of data spatial resolution on flood vulnerability assessment","authors":"D. Morrison, L. Beevers, G. Wright, M. D. Stewart","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1912694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1912694","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Index-based approaches are a popular method for assessing societal vulnerability to flooding, many of which differ in terms of indicator selection, underlying social data, spatial scale and aggregation methods. They are typically assessed at geographically broad spatial scales to provide a spatial picture of vulnerability for policy and decision-makers. However, aggregation of vulnerability at broad scales also potentially masks the true vulnerability of an area as the underlying data is not spatially refined. This research expands on a previous indicator approach, the Social Flood Vulnerability Index by using geodemographics to facilitate household and postcode level vulnerability assessment to explore the impact of spatial aggregation on vulnerability at national and local levels in Scotland. The results suggest that applying geodemographics to an existing approach increases spatial heterogeneity and has the potential to be adopted as a new dataset to guide indicator selection in future.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91134881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-25DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1905595
J. McAneney, Matthew Timms, S. Browning, P. Somerville, R. Crompton
ABSTRACT The Insurance Council of New Zealand’s Disaster List documents private sector insurance payouts caused by natural perils since April 1968. We normalise these and, where possible, payments made by the Earthquake Commission, a government natural disaster insurance scheme, as if historical events were to impact current societal conditions, defined here as the 12-month period from 1 July 2018. The methodology employs changes in the number, size and nominal cost of new residential dwellings as key normalising factors. Since 1968, earthquakes account for 79% of the normalised losses with the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at NZD20.1 billion the single most expensive event. The redlining of residential suburbs shown to be vulnerable to liquefaction and the introduction of more stringent building codes are estimated to reduce normalised losses for a repeat of the CES by about one-third. More frequent losses due to extreme weather, notably storms of tropical, sub-tropical and extra-tropical origin, when combined and after adjusting for changing societal factors, show no trend over the record length. We explore why an attempt to use the Fraction of Attributable Risk to cost the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to weather-related event losses delivers results inconsistent with most normalisation studies.
{"title":"Normalised New Zealand natural Disaster insurance losses: 1968–2019","authors":"J. McAneney, Matthew Timms, S. Browning, P. Somerville, R. Crompton","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1905595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1905595","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Insurance Council of New Zealand’s Disaster List documents private sector insurance payouts caused by natural perils since April 1968. We normalise these and, where possible, payments made by the Earthquake Commission, a government natural disaster insurance scheme, as if historical events were to impact current societal conditions, defined here as the 12-month period from 1 July 2018. The methodology employs changes in the number, size and nominal cost of new residential dwellings as key normalising factors. Since 1968, earthquakes account for 79% of the normalised losses with the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) at NZD20.1 billion the single most expensive event. The redlining of residential suburbs shown to be vulnerable to liquefaction and the introduction of more stringent building codes are estimated to reduce normalised losses for a repeat of the CES by about one-third. More frequent losses due to extreme weather, notably storms of tropical, sub-tropical and extra-tropical origin, when combined and after adjusting for changing societal factors, show no trend over the record length. We explore why an attempt to use the Fraction of Attributable Risk to cost the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to weather-related event losses delivers results inconsistent with most normalisation studies.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76554227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-25DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2021.1902783
Hyun Kim, K. Woosnam, D. Marcouiller, Hyewon Kim
ABSTRACT Adaptation to climate risks involves complementarities between vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience. In this study focused on anticipatory adaptation as social dynamics and social construction, we assess county-level adaptive capacity and resilience to inland flood risks. This is done through the application of temporal models, spatial differentials of risk, and economic impulse-response dynamics in the US Upper Midwest over the last 20 years. Empirical results for anticipatory adaptation suggest that social capital attributes and a variety of mitigation measures play a critical role in alleviating flood risks. In addition, counties with higher levels of adaptive capacity rebound more quickly from sudden climate-induced events. Effective and proactive local adaptation planning and policy combined with a region-wide understanding of anticipatory adaptation and temporal matches, spatial differentials, and impulse-response dynamics can help minimise disaster loss and make disaster-prone communities more resilient to future events.
{"title":"Seeking anticipatory adaptation: adaptive capacity and resilience to flood risk","authors":"Hyun Kim, K. Woosnam, D. Marcouiller, Hyewon Kim","doi":"10.1080/17477891.2021.1902783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2021.1902783","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Adaptation to climate risks involves complementarities between vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and resilience. In this study focused on anticipatory adaptation as social dynamics and social construction, we assess county-level adaptive capacity and resilience to inland flood risks. This is done through the application of temporal models, spatial differentials of risk, and economic impulse-response dynamics in the US Upper Midwest over the last 20 years. Empirical results for anticipatory adaptation suggest that social capital attributes and a variety of mitigation measures play a critical role in alleviating flood risks. In addition, counties with higher levels of adaptive capacity rebound more quickly from sudden climate-induced events. Effective and proactive local adaptation planning and policy combined with a region-wide understanding of anticipatory adaptation and temporal matches, spatial differentials, and impulse-response dynamics can help minimise disaster loss and make disaster-prone communities more resilient to future events.","PeriodicalId":47335,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Hazards-Human and Policy Dimensions","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84226575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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