African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献

This paper assesses the impacts of food price increase on households' consumption and welfare in Togo and the efficiency of policy measures, such as cash transfers and food subsidies, implemented by the Togolese government to dampen the adverse impacts. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used given its appropriateness in handling economy-wide and the welfare effect of specific policies. Simulation results show that an increase in food prices has adversely affected the consumption and welfare of all categories of households. The most affected households are self-employed in the agriculture and other sectors, seasonal workers, trainees, and housekeepers. However, the study reveals that these adverse effects are mitigated by the government's policy responses, notably through cash transfers and food subsidies. Furthermore, the cash transfer policy seems to have a slightly greater positive effect on household consumption and welfare in response to rising food prices in Togo compared to food subsidies. This indicates that cash transfers mitigated the negative impact of food price increases on the population more effectively than food subsidies policies. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers in optimizing public interventions and striking a balance between various policy options to address hunger and malnutrition within targeted households in Togo.

Transitioning to renewable energy generates tangible benefits in terms of the environment and emissions of greenhouse gases. However, the economic productivity costs of switching to clean energy cannot be overlooked, in addition to the large resource requirements, potential disruption in energy systems, risks of job losses, and emergence of new inequalities. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and quantify synergies and trade-offs. This paper investigates the productivity cost of abandoning the use of fossil fuels in African countries, using econometric techniques applied to panel data, including the fully modified ordinary least square. The paper finds that, while renewable energy supply is beneficial to increase total factor productivity, in general, a shift toward a higher share of renewables in the power mix is not without productivity cost on the economy. The analysis accounts for other sources of productivity, such as human capital and the diffusion of embodied technology imported from abroad into local markets. The data also reveal that the energy transition could have heterogeneous effects depending on the regions' and countries' characteristics and stages of transition.

The Russia–Ukraine crisis has significantly disrupted global supply chains, leading to sharp oil and natural gas price increases. These energy price surges have impacted productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with potential long-term effects on purchasing power and economic growth. Additionally, the crisis has highlighted varying impacts of commodity price shocks across the region due to country-specific conditions, which prompted this study to examine how energy price shocks influence macroeconomic performance in SSA based on countries' resource status. This study utilised a quarterly dataset of macroeconomic variables—real gross domestic product (GDP) (rGDP), inflation and exchange rates—across 21 SSA countries, along with crude oil and natural gas prices. The Bootstrap Granger Causality test confirmed a long-run relationship between energy prices and these macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, the Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model demonstrated varying spillover effects based on countries' resource status. The results indicate that resource status significantly affects the magnitude and nature of energy price shocks on macroeconomic variables. Specifically, oil-rich nations experience the most intense effects, followed by other resource-endowed countries. These findings offer a nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics triggered by the Russia–Ukraine crisis in the SSA region, highlighting the critical role of resource endowment in shaping economic resilience.

This study examines the conduct of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria under the assumption of a rent-seeking government. To answer this question, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring a rent-seeking fiscal authority is calibrated. The study also conducted a sensitivity analysis to compare the welfare effect of optimal simple policy rules under a corrupt versus benevolent regime. The results from the study showed that optimal monetary policy should target the double mandate of price and output stabilization when the government is a rent-seeker. The study also found that it is optimal for the Central Bank to commit to an active monetary stance. The optimal fiscal policy rule in a rent-seeking economy is passive and pro-cyclical. Furthermore, welfare is negligibly better off in the benevolent economy. From a policy perspective, rent-seeking activities are triggered by the proportion of rent-seeking agents. This induces inefficiencies in government spending, which constrains growth in a developing economy. Furthermore, rent-seeking can “coerce” the Central Bank of Nigeria to focus on a double mandate to stabilize both prices and output. Therefore, it is desirable for the monetary authority to possess due independence in controlling prices without interference from the fiscal authority.

The precarious nature of climate change and its consequences on the resilience of economies require examination. This study investigated climate change resilience in the “big three” economies in Africa—Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa—using macroeconomic data. Results indicated that Nigeria had the highest vulnerability score and South Africa had the highest resilience score. Readiness for climate change was low in all countries, especially in Nigeria. Climate vulnerability had a significant dampening effect on per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the three economies. In addition, reducing inflation is associated with increased welfare and resilience by raising per capita GDP, although the effect needs to be magnified with sound economic policies. The low adaptive capacity presents policy direction to develop human resource capacities, improve safety net delivery, and ensure effective early warning systems.

In this paper, we examine the relationship between household wealth and higher education enrolment, with a focus on the evidence surrounding credit constraints in postsecondary education. Using unique longitudinal data that link household wealth and measures of cognitive ability at age 12 to higher education attendance at age 19–22, we differentiate short-term credit constraints from long-term credit constraints and test the relative importance of short- and long-term credit constraints in schooling decisions. We find that short- and long-term credit constraints determine the relationship between household wealth and higher education attendance. There is a need to complement short-term policies with long-term interventions that empower households to continue to invest in human capital development over the child's life cycle, which will crystallize in higher cognitive ability and readiness for higher education.

Underpinned by the human capital theory of migration, this study examines the drivers of unemployment duration in Ghana with a special focus on migration and education. This study employs semiparametric Cox regression and Cox proportional hazard models. Using a sample of 575 individuals in eight districts in Ghana, the study concludes that age, locality, social networks, alternative income sources, migration and education are significant factors influencing individual-specific unemployment duration in Ghana. Also, the joint effect of education and migration status reduces unemployment duration. The study encourages the youth to take up voluntary services and other forms of industry attachments to build labour market experience. Again, the Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations should develop and implement industrial attachment and internship programmes as well as create equal job opportunities in rural areas to prevent rural–urban migration.

This study examines the mediating effect of energy management on corporate technological integration and energy-efficiency innovation nexus. Using data from 1345 Egyptian Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) from 2018 to 2020, we employed Baron and Kenny's approach, SEM, and bootstrapping tests for robustness. Our findings reveal the following: (1) Energy management, at various managerial levels partially, mediates the communication technologies' effect on energy-efficiency innovation. (2) Websites, as an information and communication technology tool, help to improve the stakeholders' reciprocity and enhance the corporate reputation. (3) Foreign technological licensing, as a source of external knowledge acquisition, shows a nonsignificant effect on innovation, indicating that imported technologies do not enhance knowledge sharing or green innovation. These insights underscore the importance of websites in driving energy management, which subsequently boosts energy-efficiency innovation. Thus, it encourages Egyptian small and medium enterprises to leverage technological tools for environmental aims.