African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献

This study examines the conduct of optimal fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria under the assumption of a rent-seeking government. To answer this question, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring a rent-seeking fiscal authority is calibrated. The study also conducted a sensitivity analysis to compare the welfare effect of optimal simple policy rules under a corrupt versus benevolent regime. The results from the study showed that optimal monetary policy should target the double mandate of price and output stabilization when the government is a rent-seeker. The study also found that it is optimal for the Central Bank to commit to an active monetary stance. The optimal fiscal policy rule in a rent-seeking economy is passive and pro-cyclical. Furthermore, welfare is negligibly better off in the benevolent economy. From a policy perspective, rent-seeking activities are triggered by the proportion of rent-seeking agents. This induces inefficiencies in government spending, which constrains growth in a developing economy. Furthermore, rent-seeking can “coerce” the Central Bank of Nigeria to focus on a double mandate to stabilize both prices and output. Therefore, it is desirable for the monetary authority to possess due independence in controlling prices without interference from the fiscal authority.

The precarious nature of climate change and its consequences on the resilience of economies require examination. This study investigated climate change resilience in the “big three” economies in Africa—Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa—using macroeconomic data. Results indicated that Nigeria had the highest vulnerability score and South Africa had the highest resilience score. Readiness for climate change was low in all countries, especially in Nigeria. Climate vulnerability had a significant dampening effect on per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the three economies. In addition, reducing inflation is associated with increased welfare and resilience by raising per capita GDP, although the effect needs to be magnified with sound economic policies. The low adaptive capacity presents policy direction to develop human resource capacities, improve safety net delivery, and ensure effective early warning systems.

Underpinned by the human capital theory of migration, this study examines the drivers of unemployment duration in Ghana with a special focus on migration and education. This study employs semiparametric Cox regression and Cox proportional hazard models. Using a sample of 575 individuals in eight districts in Ghana, the study concludes that age, locality, social networks, alternative income sources, migration and education are significant factors influencing individual-specific unemployment duration in Ghana. Also, the joint effect of education and migration status reduces unemployment duration. The study encourages the youth to take up voluntary services and other forms of industry attachments to build labour market experience. Again, the Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations should develop and implement industrial attachment and internship programmes as well as create equal job opportunities in rural areas to prevent rural–urban migration.

This study examines the mediating effect of energy management on corporate technological integration and energy-efficiency innovation nexus. Using data from 1345 Egyptian Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) from 2018 to 2020, we employed Baron and Kenny's approach, SEM, and bootstrapping tests for robustness. Our findings reveal the following: (1) Energy management, at various managerial levels partially, mediates the communication technologies' effect on energy-efficiency innovation. (2) Websites, as an information and communication technology tool, help to improve the stakeholders' reciprocity and enhance the corporate reputation. (3) Foreign technological licensing, as a source of external knowledge acquisition, shows a nonsignificant effect on innovation, indicating that imported technologies do not enhance knowledge sharing or green innovation. These insights underscore the importance of websites in driving energy management, which subsequently boosts energy-efficiency innovation. Thus, it encourages Egyptian small and medium enterprises to leverage technological tools for environmental aims.

This study investigates the effects of economic opportunities created by structural transformation, such as income from labor employment and income from nonlabor sources, on the incidence, depth, and severity of rural poverty using the 2018/2019 Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey data. The effects of rural transformations in terms of nonfarm self-employment and improved farming systems on poverty are also investigated. Ordinary least square, Probit, Instrumental Variable Probit model, and two stage least square estimation methods are used depending on the nature of outcome variables and the Wald test of exogeneity. The findings show that labor income (especially regular salaried income) and nonlabor income (especially remittance from international sources) are crucial in reducing the incidence of rural poverty. Improvements in crop and livestock practices, on the other hand, reduce the incidence as well as depth and severity of rural poverty. The findings suggest that more attention should be given to enhancing the modernization of crop and livestock sectors by expanding access to farm credit and improved extension systems, among other things.

This study employs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, integrated with a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological framework, to assess the macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy during the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco. Calibrated with Moroccan COVID-19 data, the model links epidemiological dynamics to macroeconomic variables, offering a detailed analysis of fiscal interventions. The primary objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of various fiscal measures, including government spending shocks, consumption tax cuts, and labor tax reductions, in stimulating economic activity and supporting households and businesses impacted by the pandemic. The results indicate that government spending shocks significantly stimulated economic activity and employment, but also led to increased public debt and inflationary pressures, thereby illustrating the inherent trade-offs. Consumption tax cuts, intended to boost demand, had mixed effects on inflation; while prices for some goods declined, higher demand caused price increases in others. Labor tax reductions, aimed at enhancing employment, generated varied effects on labor supply and contributed to rising public debt due to lower tax revenues. The study underscores the necessity of balanced fiscal strategies to achieve both immediate economic recovery and long-term fiscal sustainability, highlighting the critical role of well-calibrated fiscal policies in mitigating the economic consequences of pandemics.

We study the effects of fiscal decentralization on people's access to health and education services in Cameroon. It is generally believed that fiscal decentralization is an essential way to improve people's access to social services such as education and health. After reviewing the literature, we employed the Driscoll and Kraay estimate in a sample of 45 rural and urban municipalities for the period 2010–2020 to find our results. The results show that fiscal decentralization has a positive effect on the number of classrooms per pupil and the number of desks per pupil. At the same time, it negatively affects public hospitals per capita and the state of public hospitals. To improve people's access to education and health services in Cameroon, it is necessary to encourage the transfer of powers to municipalities. There is a need to control the actions of local officials to avoid mismanagement of resources that will not benefit the population. Also, the responsibility for selecting communal projects financed via the public investment budget within the framework of decentralization should be exclusively that of municipal executives, and not that of the central government.

The effect of remittances on the labor supply decisions of recipients remains a subject of contention. To contribute to the debate, we investigate how the educational attainment and household income of remittance recipients shape their decisions to work. Using data from the 2018–2019 living standard measurement survey for over 61,000 Nigerians and applying the instrumental variable probit and Tobit techniques, we find that remittances are associated with an occupational switch from agriculture to nonagricultural (paid jobs and nonfarm enterprises) works. Specifically, the results show that remittance recipients are more likely to exit or reduce the hours worked on the farm, regardless of educational attainment and household income status. On the other hand, remittances promote labor supply to paid jobs and nonfarm enterprises, especially among the less educated in Northern Nigeria. In terms of household income, the positive effect of remittances on nonfarm jobs only holds for individuals in the top income quartile, regardless of their region of residence. Our findings are robust to alternative estimation techniques and hold important cues for policymakers.