African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement最新文献

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the global supply chains of several globally traded commodities. The repercussions for many African countries are concerning. This study assesses the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on the Kenyan economy using a computable general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated using a highly disaggregated social accounting matrix. The analysis particularly focuses on the impacts of changes in world prices for five major commodities of which Kenya is a net importer. The results show rising import price that adversely lowers Kenya's gross domestic product and household consumption. The macroeconomic impacts are particularly driven by the fertilizer and fuel commodity price changes. Activities producing agrifood commodities and providing services are highly affected. Rural households face a higher food consumer price index than their urban counterparts. Subsidizing fuel and fertilizer prices could dampen most of the adverse effects but would come at considerable fiscal costs. The government of Kenya should consider devising policies that strengthen intraregional trade, diversify import origins and improve agricultural productivity and energy efficiency.

Following the rising wave of terrorism in Africa, particularly in the last decade, this study investigated the effect of terrorism on economic complexity in the region as well as the moderating role of military expenditure in the terrorism–economic complexity relationship. A panel of 34 African economies was used over the period 2010–2021. The study also used the dynamic system generalized method of moments framework. We find that the unconditional effect of terrorism on economic complexity in Africa is predominantly negative and significant, and that military expenditure in the region has been ineffective in moderating this adverse effect. This finding remained robust regardless of whether terrorism is measured by the number of terrorism incidents, fatalities, injuries, or hostages. However, our results showed that industrialization, urbanization, and governance institutional quality are potent channels for promoting economic complexity in Africa. Among others, the study emphasized the need for policymakers and leaders in Africa to collaborate at the level of the African Union to address the detrimental effects of terrorism on the continent.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a key pillar and catalyst for economic growth, industrialization, and sustainable development in Africa. One of the anticipated benefits is the promise to increase intra-African trade through the elimination of import duties and other tariffs among countries. However, due to the heterogeneity between the African countries, questions remain as to whether each country will benefit from tariff elimination. This paper aims to evaluate the macroeconomic, fiscal, and welfare consequences of import tax removal in Senegal with the rest of Africa. We link an extended version of the partnership for economic policy (PEP) static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a non-parametric microsimulation approach. We calibrate the model with Senegal's most recent Social Accounting Matrix. The microeconomic model is calibrated using the latest Senegalese household consumption survey. The findings indicate that tariff removal from the rest of Africa has favorable economic, fiscal, and welfare impacts for Senegal. The paper suggests that it will lead to an increase in economic growth and investment. The removal of tariffs is expected to favor urban households over rural ones and leads to a modest decrease in income inequality, accompanied by a 3.36% reduction in the number of poor.

This study investigates the dynamic linkages among government expenditure, informality, and economic growth in 15 Eastern and Southern African countries over a 25-year period during 1991–2015. The analysis exploits panel vector autoregressive models to construct the time path of one variable following an orthogonal shock to another variable using impulse response functions. The analysis is complemented by panel quantile regressions to investigate the potential role of informality in the expenditure–economic growth nexus. The findings are threefold. First, both government consumption and investment expenditure have positive and significant effects on real per capita GDP. Second, informality has a direct negative impact on real per capita GDP. Third, the informal sector dampens the impact of government expenditure on real per capita GDP. These results are robust to the inclusion of selected control variables and are unchanged across GDP quantiles. The study's findings suggest that government policies aimed at reducing informality can have direct impacts on economic growth and indirect impacts through improvements in the effectiveness of government expenditure.

Motivated by the pressing need to address environmental concerns, this study explores the relationship between environmental taxes and CO₂ emissions embodied in domestic final demand in South Africa. The study uses a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyse the asymmetric impact of environmental taxes. Results indicate that environmental taxes have an asymmetric impact on CO₂ emissions embodied in domestic final demand in both the short and long runs. Specifically, both positive and negative shifts in environmental taxes are linked with a respective 0.06% decrease and a more pronounced 0.22% decrease in CO₂ emissions embodied in domestic final demand. Moreover, positive shocks in the GDP growth rate are associated with an approximately 0.002% uptick in CO₂ emissions, while negative shocks lead to a 0.012% decrease. Additionally, both positive and negative shocks in population growth exhibit a significant positive correlation with the response variable. The baseline estimates demonstrate that the joint effect of environmental taxes and the GDP growth rate is correlated with reductions in CO₂ emissions embodied in domestic final demand. Similarly, the joint influence of environmental taxes and population growth rate is linked to declines in CO₂ emissions. The study highlights the practical policy implications of these findings.

This study examines the impact of armed conflicts on the fiscal capacity of African governments. It made use of a data set covering 1997–2021 for 50 countries, as well as the system dynamic generalized method of moment estimation technique. The results show that, in the short run, conflicts undermine tax revenue, mount pressure on military expenditure, and force governments to rely more on mineral resource rents for their fiscal needs. As conflicts persist, this fiscal feature changes to a pattern that reflects a decline in mineral resource earnings and an increase in tax revenue. The impact on public health expenditure also changes from an increasing to a decreasing pattern, whereas the positive impact on military expenditure and external borrowing persists over time. The findings suggest that African countries in conflict can address their fiscal challenges by observing these patterns and putting in place policies that protect public resources (e.g., the adoption of digital financial technology protocols to facilitate remote revenue collection and strategic protection of mineral resource-endowed zones from insurgents' control). Overall, enhancing government effectiveness and strengthening the institutions of governance is important to facilitate a quick return to normalcy in the event of conflict and to prevent future conflicts.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had significant global economic implications, disrupting trade flows and leading to a rise in oil prices that has affected world economies, including Morocco. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of these external shocks on the Moroccan economy using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which enables detailed analysis of the interactions between various macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates and trade balances. The results of the study highlight the importance of taking risk premium shocks into account in economic policy-making, as they can lead to higher inflation and a real depreciation of the Moroccan currency. The DSGE model provides a sound analytical framework for policy-makers to assess and manage the impact of these external shocks on the Moroccan economy and thus promote economic stability and growth in the context of global economic uncertainty.

Cette étude examine l'effet global du genre dans le développement des chaînes de valeur mondiales (CVM) dans le contexte africain. Elle exploite la base de données de la CNUCED pour mesurer l'implication des femmes dans les chaînes de valeur mondiales à l'aide d'indices de participation des CVM à travers des données de panel des pays africains de 2000 à 2018. Les résultats montrent que le taux d'activité des femmes impacte positivement la position relative dans les chaînes mondiales de valeur en Afrique. A la lumière de ces résultats, il ressort qu'il faut encourager les politiques publiques visant une meilleure participation des femmes dans les chaines de valeur afin de favoriser la relance des économies africaines. De même, avec l'avènement de la ZLECAf, il ressort la nécessité de soutenir le commerce intra-africain à travers une meilleure organisation des chaînes de valeur régionales et continentales grâce aux politiques visant la réduction des coûts commerciaux.