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Multiple Memberships in Regional Trade Agreements and Intraregional Trade Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa 区域贸易协定的多重成员和撒哈拉以南非洲的区域内贸易动态
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-20 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70013
Amsalu Dachito Chigeto, Jayamohan M. K.

Over recent decades, the impact of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) on trade has sparked considerable debate. This study examines the effects of multiple RTA memberships on trade dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Analyzing panel data from 43 SSA countries over 22 years (2000–2021) using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation technique, we find that countries participating in multiple RTAs engage in enhanced bilateral trade within the SSA region. Furthermore, gaining a hub position is positively associated with increased bilateral trade engagement. Our analysis also confirms that network centrality metrics, derived from potential trade connections, are positively related to trade volume. These findings imply that accession to an additional RTA not only creates more opportunities for integration but may also help mitigate politically motivated trade barriers. Moreover, the market access benefits from participating in multiple RTAs appear to outweigh the complexities associated with establishing rules of origin and lengthy trade negotiations. To significantly boost intra-SSA trade and foster deeper regional integration, policymakers in SSA should prioritize aggressively negotiating and implementing RTAs. Moreover, intraregional trade strategies should prioritize systematically securing hub positions within the regional trade network through RTA membership to maximize trade volumes and drive comprehensive regional integration.

近几十年来,重叠区域贸易协定(rta)对贸易的影响引发了相当大的争论。本研究考察了多个区域贸易协定成员对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)贸易动态的影响。我们利用泊松伪极大似然估计技术分析了43个SSA国家22年(2000-2021年)的面板数据,发现参与多个rta的国家在SSA区域内促进了双边贸易。此外,获得枢纽地位与增加双边贸易往来呈正相关。我们的分析还证实,源自潜在贸易联系的网络中心性指标与贸易量呈正相关。这些发现表明,加入一个额外的区域贸易协定不仅创造了更多的一体化机会,而且可能有助于减轻出于政治动机的贸易壁垒。此外,参加多个区域贸易协定所带来的市场准入利益似乎超过了与制定原产地规则和冗长的贸易谈判有关的复杂性。为了显著促进SSA内部贸易和促进更深层次的区域一体化,SSA的政策制定者应优先考虑积极谈判和实施rta。此外,区域内贸易战略应优先考虑通过区域贸易协定成员身份系统地确保区域贸易网络中的枢纽地位,以最大限度地提高贸易量并推动全面的区域一体化。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling Economic Policy Uncertainty—Examining the Effects of Oil Prices, Global and Domestic Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firm Stability in Nigeria 经济政策不确定性建模——考察油价、全球和国内经济政策不确定性对尼日利亚企业稳定的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70012
Olajide O. Oyadeyi

The article explored the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm stability in Nigeria. The article makes three contributions to the literature. First, the article examined the impact of global EPU on firm stability. Second, it examined the effects of domestic EPU on firm stability, given the vulnerable nature of the Nigerian economy to both global and domestic shocks. Finally, the study examined the effects of oil prices on the EPU-firm stability nexus, given the Nigerian economy's vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. Using annual data from 2004 to 2023 and employing the Driscoll and Kraay fixed effects method, the study found that global EPU had no significant effect on firm stability. Furthermore, the findings revealed that domestic EPU hurt firm stability. Additionally, when oil prices induce domestic energy price volatility, they negatively impact firm stability. The sensitivity analysis, conducted using the quantile regression method, supported the main findings. Thus, given the importance of the results, the study recommends ways for firms to become resilient to domestic economic uncertainty by adopting robust risk management techniques and implementing policies that ensure a resilient business environment.

本文探讨了经济政策不确定性(EPU)对尼日利亚企业稳定性的影响。这篇文章对文学有三点贡献。首先,本文考察了全球EPU对企业稳定性的影响。其次,考虑到尼日利亚经济对全球和国内冲击的脆弱性,它研究了国内EPU对企业稳定性的影响。最后,鉴于尼日利亚经济易受油价波动的影响,该研究考察了油价对EPU-firm稳定性关系的影响。利用2004 - 2023年的年度数据,采用Driscoll和Kraay固定效应方法,研究发现全球EPU对企业稳定性没有显著影响。此外,研究结果表明,国内EPU损害了企业的稳定性。此外,当油价引起国内能源价格波动时,它们会对企业稳定性产生负面影响。采用分位数回归方法进行敏感性分析,支持主要发现。因此,鉴于研究结果的重要性,本研究建议企业通过采用强有力的风险管理技术和实施确保有弹性的商业环境的政策来抵御国内经济的不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
RETRACTION: Idiosyncratic Covariates of Unemployment Duration in Ghana: The Joint Effect of Migration and Education 加纳失业持续时间的特质协变量:移民和教育的联合效应
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/afdr.70011

RETRACTION: C. Oteng, I. N. Nyame, “Idiosyncratic Covariates of Unemployment Duration in Ghana: The Joint Effect of Migration and Education,” African Development Review 36, no. 3 (2024): 444-456, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12772.

The above article, published online on 20 September 2024 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com), has been retracted by agreement between the authors; the journal Editor-in-Chief, Abdoulaye Coulibaly; African Development Bank; and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to major overlap with a previously published thesis from a different author. [1]

[1] E. A. Darko, “Unemployment Duration, Migration Intention, and Social Participation: Evidence from Selected Regions in Ghana,” PhD diss., University of Cape Coast, 2022, https://ir.ucc.edu.gh/xmlui/handle/123456789/10769.

撤稿:C. Oteng, I. N. Nyame,“加纳失业持续时间的特殊协变量:移民和教育的共同效应”,《非洲发展评论》第36期。3 (2024): 444-456, https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12772.The上述文章于2024年9月20日在线发表在Wiley online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com)上,经作者同意撤回;杂志主编Abdoulaye Coulibaly;非洲开发银行;约翰·威利&;子有限公司由于与其他作者先前发表的论文有重大重叠,因此已同意撤回。[10][E. A. Darko,“失业持续时间、移民意愿和社会参与:来自加纳特定地区的证据”,博士论文。,开普敦海岸大学,2022年,https://ir.ucc.edu.gh/xmlui/handle/123456789/10769。
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引用次数: 0
Contraintes Réglementaires Et Transmission De La Politique Monétaire Aux Prêts Bancaires Dans L'uemoa 监管约束和货币政策向银行贷款的转移
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70008
Karim Nabaloum

Ces dernières années, les contraintes réglementaires sont de plus en plus considérées comme des facteurs susceptibles d'affecter la transmission de la politique monétaire. Cette étude examine l'effet des contraintes réglementaires sur la transmission de la politique monétaire aux prêts bancaires dans sept pays de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) sur la période 1990 à 2021. L'étude utilise une approche paramétrique (Pooled Mean Group) avec des données provenant de la BCEAO, du World Development Indicator et du Global Financial Development. Les résultats suggèrent que la transmission de la politique monétaire sur les prêts accordés par les banques soumises à une réglementation plus stricte en matière de fonds propres est réduite. En revanche, les banques soumises aux ratios de liquidité semblent transmettre plus amplement la politique monétaire. Ces résultats traduisent la nécessité de rendre les contraintes réglementaires plus flexibles, en tenant compte de la capacité des banques à reconstituer leurs fonds propres.

近年来,监管约束越来越被视为可能影响货币政策传导的因素。本研究考察了1990年至2021年期间西非经济与货币联盟(UEMOA) 7个国家的监管要求对货币政策向银行贷款传递的影响。该研究采用了一种参数化方法(池均值组),使用了来自BCEAO、世界发展指标和全球金融发展的数据。结果表明,货币政策对受到更严格资本要求监管的银行贷款的传导正在减弱。相比之下,受流动性比率约束的银行似乎更能传达货币政策。这些结果反映出,考虑到银行重建资本的能力,有必要使监管要求更加灵活。
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引用次数: 0
Access to Finance in the Digital Age: Does Digital Financial Inclusion Promote Financial Development in Emerging Countries? 数字时代的金融获取:数字普惠金融是否促进新兴国家的金融发展?
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70009
Armand Fréjuis Akpa, Mingnimon Ghislain Gnidehou

This study's purpose is to assess the influence of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on financial development in sub-Saharan African (SSA). Using a sample of 26 SSA nations over the period from 2014 to 2021 and the general method of moments in system (SGMM) on panel data, the estimation results show that both digital access and digital use promote financial development. Similarly, DFI improves financial development, allowing us to confirm that DFI is a key factor that promotes financial development. The study suggests that cybersecurity needs to be strengthened to secure online platforms and that incentive policies and regulatory measures favorable for the development of human capital capable of operating in this sector need to be put in place.

本研究的目的是评估数字普惠金融(DFI)对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)金融发展的影响。利用2014年至2021年期间26个SSA国家的样本和面板数据的一般系统矩法(SGMM)估计结果表明,数字接入和数字使用都促进了金融发展。同样,DFI促进了金融发展,这让我们确认了DFI是促进金融发展的关键因素。该研究表明,需要加强网络安全,以确保在线平台的安全,并需要制定有利于开发能够在该领域运营的人力资本的激励政策和监管措施。
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引用次数: 0
Appreciation to Article Reviewers 感谢文章审稿人
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/afdr.70006
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Bank Intermediation Quality in WAEMU Countries WAEMU国家财政政策对金融银行中介质量的影响
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70002
Ouabou Nabié, Mahamadou Diarra

The study assesses the effects of fiscal policy on the financial bank quality intermediation in the WAEMU. To do so, the effects of the government securities ratio and the tax pressure rate on the NPL ratio are examined separately. The study uses panel data from WAEMU countries over the period 1990–2021 and ARDL modelling by the PMG estimator for basics estimates and the GM-FMOLS estimator for robustness. The public securities ratio improves the financial bank quality intermediation up to the maximum threshold of 47.5% of GDP. The tax pressure rate contributes to increasing the NPL ratio up to the maximum threshold of 17.06%. These results imply that a reform of banking regulation should encourage banks to hold a significant proportion of public securities, without crowding out the private sector. They also call on governments to implement measures to stimulate economic activity to absorb fiscal pressure. The study contributes to the literature and empirical effects of fiscal policy on the financial bank quality intermediation in the WAEMU while serving as a decision-making tool for governments and banking authorities in the management of NPLs in their lending activities and development.

本研究评估了财政政策对东亚货币联盟金融银行质量中介的影响。为此,我们分别考察了政府证券比率和税收压力率对不良贷款率的影响。该研究使用了来自WAEMU国家1990-2021年的面板数据,并使用了ARDL模型,其中PMG估计器用于基本估计,GM-FMOLS估计器用于鲁棒性估计。公共证券比率提高了金融银行质量中介的最高门槛,达到GDP的47.5%。税收压力率有助于将不良贷款率提高到17.06%的最高门槛。这些结果表明,银行业监管改革应鼓励银行持有相当比例的公共证券,同时不排挤私人部门。他们还呼吁各国政府采取措施刺激经济活动,以消化财政压力。该研究有助于研究财政政策对东亚货币联盟金融银行质量中介的文献和实证影响,同时为政府和银行当局在其贷款活动和发展中管理不良贷款提供决策工具。
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引用次数: 0
Inclusion Financière Digitale et Croissance Economique dans L'espace UEMOA: Rôle de la Qualité des Institutions UEMOA地区数字普惠金融与经济增长:机构质量的作用
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70004
Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide, Charles Yédéhou Faton, Marlyse Sandrine S. Togodo Azon
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引用次数: 0
‘Learning to Export’ and ‘Learning By Exporting’: Revisiting the Relationship Between Innovation and Exports in African Firms “学习出口”和“通过出口学习”:重新审视非洲企业创新与出口之间的关系
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70001
Elvis Korku Avenyo, Fiona Tregenna

This article examines the relationship between innovation and export performance for African firms. We estimate a censored Tobit IV simultaneous model with selection, using a cross-sectional data set from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys for 28 African economies. The results show a two-way positive relationship between innovation and export performance in African firms: innovation is important for both the ability to export (export propensity) and for export intensity, while exporting also increases the likelihood of innovating. These effects are driven mainly by direct exports and apply to both product and process innovations. The positive two-way relationship is strengthened through two key mechanisms: a higher share of foreign ownership in firms, and firms having an internationally recognised quality certification. We argue that these results point to a two-way relationship in which innovation enables firms to ‘learn to export’, while firms also ‘learn by exporting’. We discuss the implications of these findings for African firms and policymakers.

本文考察了创新与非洲企业出口绩效之间的关系。我们使用来自世界银行对28个非洲经济体的企业调查的横截面数据集,估计了带有选择的删减Tobit IV同步模型。结果表明,创新与出口绩效之间存在双向正相关关系:创新对出口能力(出口倾向)和出口强度都很重要,而出口也增加了创新的可能性。这些影响主要由直接出口驱动,适用于产品和工艺创新。积极的双向关系通过两个关键机制得到加强:公司中较高的外资所有权份额,以及拥有国际认可的质量认证的公司。我们认为,这些结果指出了一种双向关系,即创新使企业“学会出口”,同时企业也“通过出口学习”。我们讨论了这些发现对非洲公司和政策制定者的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Inflows, Governance and Health Outcomes in Nigeria 尼日利亚的外资流入、治理和卫生成果
IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.70000
Aderoju Oyefusi, Obianuju O. Nnadozie

Foreign financial inflows to Nigeria have risen in the last two decades. Currently, the country receives over one-third of remittance flows to sub-Saharan Africa and is one of Africa's top recipients of foreign aid with the health sector being a major target. Despite the substantial foreign inflows, health outcomes in Nigeria have not remarkably improved. This raises important questions about the effectiveness of foreign inflows in achieving better health outcomes in Nigeria. This article examines the effects of foreign inflows on health outcomes utilising different components of foreign inflows—aid and remittance. It also investigates the role of governance in the foreign inflows-health outcomes nexus using time series data from Nigeria covering the period 1984–2021. Results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model suggest that health aid has a limited impact on health outcomes, while remittance has been ineffective in driving improvements in health outcomes. Other factors, such as growth in real income per person, reduction in the emission of pollutants, such as carbon dioxide and improvements in governance, appear to be critical for improving health outcomes in the country.

在过去20年里,流入尼日利亚的外国资金有所增加。目前,该国接收了撒哈拉以南非洲三分之一以上的汇款流量,是非洲最大的外援受援国之一,卫生部门是一个主要目标。尽管有大量外国资金流入,尼日利亚的保健结果并没有显著改善。这就对外国资金流入在尼日利亚实现更好的卫生成果方面的有效性提出了重要问题。本文利用外国流入的不同组成部分——援助和汇款——考察外国流入对卫生成果的影响。本报告还利用尼日利亚1984-2021年期间的时间序列数据,调查了治理在外国资金流入与卫生成果关系中的作用。自回归分布式滞后(ARDL)模型的结果表明,卫生援助对健康结果的影响有限,而汇款在推动健康结果的改善方面一直无效。其他因素,如人均实际收入的增长、二氧化碳等污染物排放的减少和治理的改善,似乎对改善该国的健康结果至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
African Development Review-Revue Africaine De Developpement
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