Climate change remains a world tragedy affecting stream flows in catchment areas. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on streamflow along the Kiwira Catchment in the Lake Nyasa Basin, Tanzania, which is important for natural and human ecosystems. The study used climate projections generated from two General Circulation Models (GCMs), downloaded using the LARS-WG statistical methods under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. A calibrated HBV hydrological model was used to analyse the future climate scenarios, focusing on mid-century (2025–2060) and end-century (2061–2100) projections. The results indicated alteration in precipitation patterns, including higher rainfall during wet months and lower rainfall in dry months. Temperature projections indicate a steady rise, with maximum temperatures increasing by 0.83 °C mid-century and 1.07 °C by century’s end, while minimum temperatures may rise by 2.61 °C to 3.75 °C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The HBV model has demonstrated strong performance in simulating streamflow. The model achieved a coefficient of determination(R2) of 0.7 during calibration. Also, the NSE0.68 confirmed model reliability to stimulate streamflow patterns. The streamflow analysis showed variability through increasing peak flows during the wet season and a decline in the dry season, which shows stronger dry seasons and a drop of almost 18m3/s under future projections. Flood Frequency Analysis demonstrated medium floods increasing frequently, and an increase also in extreme events, such as 100-year floods, can be reduced by 30%. Hence, with these results Kiwira Catchment is vulnerable to the impact of climate change and needs adaptive water resources management strategies.