Deforestation and urban expansion substantially alter hydrological processes by accelerating runoff, reducing groundwater recharge, and increasing flood risks. The current study assessed runoff dynamics in the Wardha River sub-basin from 2010 to 2020 using the NRCS-CN method, with land-use/land-cover (LULC) and rainfall inputs processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and validated against observed discharge. During this period, mean runoff increased by 11.34%, linked to a 23.34% decline in forest cover and a 148% rise in impervious surfaces. Elasticity analysis indicated that rainfall influenced runoff (elasticity > 1), but land-use transitions had a stronger effect, with the 2010–2020 changes showing elasticity 2.07. A hypothetical-future scenario (HFS), simulating full forest-to-cropland and fallow-to-built-up conversion, projected an additional 10% rise in runoff with elasticity 1.91, underscoring the hydrological risks of continued land transformation. Model evaluation confirmed good performance, with R² > 0.90 across scenarios and the HFS scenario showing the best fit (NSE = 0.504, PBIAS = − 29.4%, RMSE = 21.59 mm). Despite scale mismatches between area-averaged runoff and point-based discharge, simulations based on 2010, 2020, and CN-adjusted datasets achieved moderate to acceptable accuracy. These findings highlight the dominant role of land-use change, particularly deforestation, in shaping runoff dynamics and flood risks in the Wardha River sub-basin, compared with the broader but less intense influence of rainfall variability.
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