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Pollution haven or pollution halo? The role of global value chains in Belt and Road economies 污染天堂还是污染光环?全球价值链在“一带一路”经济中的作用
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13041
Muhammad Uzair Ali, Y. Wang
“Global value chains” (GVCs) participation brings countless economic and environmental benefits to “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) economies. As the nations associated with BRI are crucial members of GVCs, analyzing the influence of GVCs on environmental quality in BRI economies is of great significance. By joining regression models with “multi‐region input–output” analyses, current study inspects the influence of GVCs on environmental quality in 82 BRI economies from 2002 to 2018. This study considered different GVCs participation modes and national heterogeneity to check “pollution haven hypothesis and pollution halo hypothesis” theories. The GVC position worsened environmental quality in the full BRI panel and validated the pollution haven hypothesis theory. Forward and backward participation improves environmental quality and confirms the pollution halo hypothesis. Moreover, income‐specific outcomes showed divergent patterns related to GVCs and environmental quality. GVCs' position of GVCs promotes the environmental quality of developed and emerging countries and exacerbates that of developing and underdeveloped economies. Moreover, the links of forward and backward participation with environmental quality showed mixed results for the pollution haven and halo theories in all subpanels. The results propose that the BRI should focus on upgrading GVCs and adopting region‐specific green policies to ensure a sustainable environment.
参与“全球价值链”为“一带一路”沿线经济体带来了无数的经济和环境效益。“一带一路”沿线国家是全球价值链的重要成员,分析全球价值链对“一带一路”经济体环境质量的影响具有重要意义。本研究通过结合回归模型和“多区域投入产出”分析,考察了2002 - 2018年全球价值链对82个“一带一路”经济体环境质量的影响。本研究考虑不同全球价值链参与模式和国家异质性,对“污染避风港假说”和“污染光环假说”理论进行检验。在整个BRI面板中,全球价值链位置恶化了环境质量,验证了污染避风港假设理论。前向参与和后向参与提高了环境质量,证实了污染光环假说。此外,特定收入的结果显示出与全球价值链和环境质量相关的不同模式。全球价值链在全球价值链中的地位促进了发达国家和新兴国家的环境质量,加剧了发展中国家和欠发达经济体的环境质量。此外,前向参与和后向参与与环境质量的联系在所有子面板中都显示出污染天堂理论和光环理论的混合结果。研究结果表明,“一带一路”倡议应着眼于提升全球价值链,并采取有针对性的绿色政策,以确保可持续发展的环境。
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引用次数: 1
Finding the right products for export diversification 为出口多元化寻找合适的产品
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-27 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13049
T. Yenilmez
The Ricardian comparative advantage model suggests doing what you are best at. Meanwhile, many development experiences resulted in producing the impossible. Do the two prescriptions lead to an antagonism that the industrial policy must side by one? Or can industrial policy consider the current comparative advantage while aiming for significant changes in the export basket? This paper answers yes by suggesting a path to transformation through the tracks of current comparative advantage. I use the Product Space network to define the two attributes of a product: New products closer to the existing comparative advantage are easier to include in the export basket. On the other hand, central products in the core of the product space might be far from the export basket, but once added, they contribute more to the transformation and further diversification. Hence, a trade‐off exists between the proximity of a new product to the current export basket and its contribution to further diversification and transformation. I offer industrial policymakers to use a combination of product nearness and centrality. A policymaker seeking a gradual and secure transformation can prioritize nearness, while centrality can be given greater weight for rapid transformations.
李嘉图比较优势模型建议做你最擅长的事。同时,许多开发经验导致了不可能的产生。这两种做法是否会导致一种对立,即产业政策必须与之相辅相成?或者,产业政策能否考虑当前的比较优势,同时着眼于出口篮子的重大变化?本文的答案是肯定的,并提出了一条通过当前比较优势轨道实现转型的路径。我使用产品空间网络来定义产品的两个属性:更接近现有比较优势的新产品更容易包含在出口篮子中。另一方面,产品空间核心的核心产品可能远离出口篮子,但一旦加入,它们对转型和进一步多元化的贡献更大。因此,在新产品与当前出口篮子的接近程度及其对进一步多样化和转型的贡献之间存在权衡。我建议产业政策制定者结合使用产品接近性和中心性。寻求渐进和安全转型的政策制定者可以优先考虑接近性,而快速转型可以给予中心性更大的权重。
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引用次数: 0
Economic transition, dualism and informality in India: Nature and patterns of household‐level transitions 印度的经济转型、二元论和非正式性:家庭层面转型的性质和模式
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13040
Surbhi Kesar
We examine the Indian economy during a peak period of high growth between 2005 and 2012 to analyse the nature and patterns of household‐level transitions across different sectors, characterised by varying degrees of formality/informality and various production structures and labour processes. We find that even within this brief period, there has been a huge volume of household‐level transitions across sectors. However, the overall economic structure, and its segmentations, has continued to be reproduced, along with a regeneration of ‘traditional’ non‐capitalist informal spaces. To ascertain the nature of household‐level transitions in terms of economic well‐being, we employ a counterfactual analysis. We find that majority of transitions in the economy have been ‘unfavourable’ in nature, with large proportion of households undergoing sectoral transitions that are not optimal for them, given their socio‐economic characteristics. Furthermore, the likelihood of ‘favourable’ versus ‘unfavourable’ sectoral transition, on average, significantly varies with household characteristics, some of which, like social caste, are structurally given and cannot be optimally chosen by households. Drawing upon this analysis, we reflect on the competing strands of literature that seek to explain the persistence of informality. Our analysis highlights the complexity of India's contemporary development trajectory, whereby the pre‐existing economic structure is reproduced, paradoxically, through a continuous reshuffling and reconstitution of economic spaces, accompanied by significant volume of ‘unfavourable’ household‐level sectoral transitions.
我们研究了印度经济在2005年至2012年的高增长高峰时期,以分析不同部门的家庭层面转型的性质和模式,其特征是不同程度的正式/非正式以及不同的生产结构和劳动过程。我们发现,即使在这段短暂的时期内,各个部门也发生了大量的家庭层面的转变。然而,随着“传统”非资本主义非正式空间的再生,整体经济结构及其分割继续被复制。为了确定家庭层面转型在经济福祉方面的本质,我们采用了反事实分析。我们发现,经济中的大多数转型本质上是“不利的”,鉴于其社会经济特征,很大一部分家庭正在经历对他们来说不是最佳的部门转型。此外,平均而言,“有利”与“不利”部门转型的可能性因家庭特征而有很大差异,其中一些特征,如社会种姓,是结构上给定的,不能由家庭进行最佳选择。根据这一分析,我们反思了试图解释非正式性持续存在的文献的竞争股。我们的分析强调了印度当代发展轨迹的复杂性,即通过经济空间的不断重组和重构,矛盾地再现了先前存在的经济结构,同时伴随着大量“不利”的家庭层面部门转型。
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引用次数: 4
A gendered analysis of the effect of financial inclusion on household welfare in Burundi 布隆迪金融包容性对家庭福利影响的性别分析
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13046
Jonathan Atta‐Aidoo, Ester Cosmas Matthew, Abdulkarim Onah Saleh, Saidi Bizoza
Despite an improving financial inclusion situation across the developing world, there still exist wide gender gaps in financial inclusion, especially in fragile and post‐conflict countries. In our study, we designed and implemented a survey consisting of 860 households across urban and rural Burundi to examine the effect of financial inclusion on household asset‐based welfare from a gendered perspective. To address any endogeneity concerns, we apply the two‐stage least squares (2SLS) regression method. We find that most Burundian households prefer to save their money at home rather than at a financial institution. Also, mobile money is mainly employed as a means of receiving and withdrawing cash. Our 2SLS regression results reveal that improved financial inclusion has a greater effect on the welfare of female‐headed households than on male‐headed households. We recommend the use of social networks as an avenue to promote financial inclusion and literacy. Additionally, the Government of Burundi can collaborate with the telecommunication operators to institute small loan schemes through the mobile money platform to enhance access to credit, especially for women.
尽管发展中世界的金融包容性状况有所改善,但在金融包容性方面仍然存在巨大的性别差距,尤其是在脆弱和冲突后国家。在我们的研究中,我们设计并实施了一项由布隆迪城乡860户家庭组成的调查,从性别角度考察金融包容性对家庭资产福利的影响。为了解决任何内生性问题,我们应用了两阶段最小二乘(2SLS)回归方法。我们发现,大多数布隆迪家庭更喜欢把钱存在家里,而不是金融机构。此外,移动货币主要用作接收和提取现金的手段。我们的2SLS回归结果表明,金融包容性的改善对女性户主家庭的福利的影响大于对男性户主家庭的影响。我们建议利用社交网络作为促进金融包容性和扫盲的途径。此外,布隆迪政府可以与电信运营商合作,通过移动货币平台制定小额贷款计划,以增加获得信贷的机会,特别是为妇女提供信贷。
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引用次数: 0
Asset accumulation, financial inclusion and subjective well‐being: The role of financial formality in South Africa's households 资产积累、金融包容性和主观幸福感:金融形式在南非家庭中的作用
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13044
K. J. Chipunza, A. Fanta
Asset building and financial inclusion programmes have contributed to the enhancement of consumers' welfare through asset accumulation. Employing the FinScope consumer survey for South Africa, we extended the analysis of the relationship between financial inclusion and asset holding by examining whether this, in turn, improves consumers' subjective well‐being (SWB). Financial inclusion was captured by credit, savings, and insurance whereas multiple correspondence analysis was employed to compute an asset index that captured indicators of individual material possessions. Results from the partial least squares path model suggested that financial inclusion had an indirect positive association with consumers' SWB through increased asset holding, but the association was more pronounced via formal channels of saving, credit, and insurance. As such, social policymakers are encouraged to integrate access to insurance, credit, and savings through formal channels in poverty interventions since this has a greater indirect association with consumers' SWB via increased asset ownership.
通过资产积累,资产建设和金融普惠计划有助于提高消费者的福利。利用FinScope对南非的消费者调查,我们通过检查这是否反过来改善了消费者的主观幸福感(SWB),扩展了对金融普惠与资产持有之间关系的分析。金融包容性通过信贷、储蓄和保险来捕获,而多重对应分析用于计算捕获个人物质财产指标的资产指数。偏最小二乘路径模型的结果表明,普惠金融通过增加资产持有量与消费者的SWB存在间接正相关,但通过储蓄、信贷和保险等正式渠道,这种关联更为明显。因此,鼓励社会政策制定者通过正式渠道在贫困干预中整合获得保险、信贷和储蓄的渠道,因为通过增加资产所有权,这与消费者的SWB有更大的间接关联。
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引用次数: 1
Financial inclusion and healthcare in Africa: Examining the moderating role of education 非洲的普惠金融和保健:审查教育的调节作用
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13043
Muhamadu Awal Kindzeka Wirajing, Ali Haruna, Tii N. Nchofoung
The 2023 Sustainable Development Goal Report reveals that Africa is still struggling in its pursuit to achieve universal healthcare coverage. However, financial risk protection and human capital development could come to the rescue by facilitating the attainment of quality healthcare services. This study examines the effect of financial inclusion on healthcare in Africa, spanning from 2000 to 2021. Healthcare is proxied by life expectancy at birth, the immunisation rate, and the lifetime risk of maternal death. Financial inclusion is approached through access and usage of financial services. After controlling for the problem of potential endogeneity through the system generalised method of moment (GMM), the findings reveal that financial inclusion enhances healthcare in Africa, signifying that financially included individuals have a higher conditional probability of spending more on improving their health relative to the financially excluded individuals. Moreover, the findings indicate that education and technology diffusion are imperative in the quest for enhancing healthcare in Africa. In addition, after testing for sensitivity analysis by adopting different indicators of healthcare, the results remain consistent throughout the study, confirming the role of financial inclusion in enhancing healthcare in Africa. After computing the marginal effects, the findings depict that education and financial inclusion interact to produce positive synergy effects, signifying that the positive role of financial inclusion and education in enhancing healthcare outweighs the negative conditional effect. The results recommend policymakers establish a framework that promotes financial literacy for the enhancement of healthcare in Africa.
《2023年可持续发展目标报告》显示,非洲仍在努力实现全民医疗覆盖。然而,金融风险保护和人力资本开发可以通过促进实现高质量的医疗保健服务来解决问题。本研究考察了2000年至2021年期间金融包容性对非洲医疗保健的影响。保健是由出生时的预期寿命、免疫接种率和孕产妇死亡的终生风险来表示的。普惠金融是通过获取和使用金融服务来实现的。在通过系统广义矩法(GMM)控制潜在内质性问题后,研究结果显示,金融包容性增强了非洲的医疗保健,这意味着相对于金融排斥的个人,金融包容的个人有更高的条件概率在改善健康方面花费更多。此外,调查结果表明,教育和技术传播对于寻求加强非洲的医疗保健至关重要。此外,在采用不同的医疗保健指标进行敏感性分析测试后,整个研究的结果保持一致,证实了普惠金融在加强非洲医疗保健方面的作用。在计算边际效应后,研究发现教育和普惠金融相互作用,产生正向协同效应,表明普惠金融和教育在促进医疗保健方面的积极作用大于负面条件效应。研究结果建议决策者建立一个促进金融知识普及的框架,以加强非洲的医疗保健。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural productivity‐environmental sustainability nexus through the lens of digitalization and energy intensity in BRICS countries 金砖国家数字化和能源强度视角下的农业生产力与环境可持续性关系
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13045
Junkai Qi, J. Hussain, Yexing Yin, Anwar Khan
The agricultural sector holds paramount implications in the economies of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Nevertheless, the escalating effect of climate change shows a significant and alarming threat to the actual environmental conditions required to sustain agricultural production. This study examines the potential contribution of demographic dividends, digitalization, and energy intensity in facilitating the attainment of environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity by BRICS economies from 1996 to 2020. The study first tested cross‐sectional dependence, then unit roots, cointegration, and long‐run elasticities using suitable econometric approaches to explore possible links between the study variables. The empirical results from the long‐run estimators stated that digitalization improves agricultural production and the environment; contrarily, demographic dividend and energy intensity contribute to environmental degradation. Furthermore, the long‐term improvement of agricultural production is supported by demographic dividend, GDP per capita, energy intensity, and digitalization. Also, the study reached a broad inference emphasizing bidirectional causal associations between demographic dividend, energy intensity, GDP per capita, the environment, and agricultural production. In conclusion, the study has identified robust policy options for BRICS economies that can serve as valuable guidance for policymakers in making informed decisions and implementing effective practices.
农业部门对金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)的经济有着至关重要的影响。然而,气候变化日益加剧的影响显示出对维持农业生产所需的实际环境条件的重大和令人震惊的威胁。本研究考察了1996年至2020年间,人口红利、数字化和能源强度对促进金砖国家实现环境可持续性和农业生产率的潜在贡献。该研究首先测试了横截面相关性,然后使用适当的计量经济学方法测试了单位根、协整和长期弹性,以探索研究变量之间可能的联系。长期估算的实证结果表明,数字化改善了农业生产和环境;相反,人口红利和能源强度对环境退化有促进作用。此外,农业生产的长期改善受到人口红利、人均GDP、能源强度和数字化的支持。此外,该研究还得出了一个广泛的推论,强调人口红利、能源强度、人均GDP、环境和农业生产之间的双向因果关系。总之,该研究为金砖国家经济体确定了强有力的政策选择,可为决策者做出明智决策和实施有效做法提供宝贵指导。
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引用次数: 0
(En‐)‘lightening’ children: Assessing the impacts of access to electricity on learning achievement levels (En‐)“紧张”儿童:评估用电对学习成绩水平的影响
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-13 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13042
Somdeep Chatterjee, Shiv Hastawala, Jai Kamal
The welfare impacts of electrification are well documented in the literature, including the effects of electricity on school enrolment. However, the spillover effects of electrification on children's achievement levels are scarce. We use three complementary but distinct econometric models to establish a causal relationship between electrification and test scores using nationally representative household panel data from India. We find positive results irrespective of the choice of econometric model, and these results seem to be mediated by changing time‐use patterns of children with access to electricity. We first exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in access to electricity due to a universal electrification program in the state of West Bengal in India and we find positive effects of electrification on children's test scores. By age group, we find that younger cohorts benefit more in terms of their reading scores than older cohorts. Then, to ascertain external validity of these results, we replicate them over a nationally representative sample using fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation and find similar results. At the intensive margin, we find that access to more hours of electricity positively affects test scores. We identify an increase in time spent by children on study‐related activities as the potential channel for these results.
电气化对福利的影响在文献中有很好的记录,包括电力对入学率的影响。然而,电气化对儿童成绩水平的溢出效应很少。我们使用三个互补但不同的计量经济学模型,利用印度具有全国代表性的家庭面板数据,建立电气化和考试成绩之间的因果关系。无论经济计量模型的选择如何,我们都发现了积极的结果,这些结果似乎是由有电儿童时间使用模式的变化所介导的。我们首先利用了由于印度西孟加拉邦的普遍电气化计划而导致的电力供应的看似外生的变化,我们发现电气化对儿童的考试成绩有积极影响。按年龄组划分,我们发现年轻群体在阅读成绩方面比年长群体受益更多。然后,为了确定这些结果的外部有效性,我们使用固定效应和工具变量估计在具有全国代表性的样本上进行了复制,并发现了类似的结果。在密集边际,我们发现获得更多小时的电力对考试成绩有积极影响。我们发现,儿童在学习相关活动上花费的时间增加是这些结果的潜在渠道。
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引用次数: 1
Predicting FDI inflows: Exploring a nonlinear relationship between peace years, oil wealth, and the rule of law 预测外国直接投资流入:探索和平年代、石油财富和法治之间的非线性关系
IF 1.6 4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13036
Hyeuk Kim, J. Ryu
Despite previous studies investigating the impacts of various factors such as peace years, natural resources, and the rule of law on foreign direct investment (FDI), empirical findings remain inconclusive. Therefore, this study investigates the interplay between these factors in shaping host country conditions that facilitate FDI inflows. Using generalized additive models, we examine the simultaneous effects of peace years, oil wealth, and the rule of law on FDI inflows in a sample of non‐OECD countries from 1970 to 2009. Our results reveal that established peace is a critical factor in attracting FDI inflows for both oil‐exporting and non‐oil‐exporting countries. However, the effects of the rule of law vary depending on oil wealth. Oil‐exporting countries receive more FDI inflows when they have a weak rather than a strong rule of law, while non‐oil‐exporting countries tend to receive more foreign investments when they have a moderately strong rule of law. We argue that countries with oil wealth combined with a moderately weak rule of law provide an environment that is conducive to multinational corporations (MNCs) in extractive industries seeking monopoly rents. Conversely, countries without oil wealth should create stable yet efficient environments that protect property rights and promote labor market flexibility to appeal to non‐resource‐seeking MNCs.
尽管以前的研究调查了和平年代、自然资源和法治等各种因素对外国直接投资(FDI)的影响,但实证结果仍然不确定。因此,本研究调查了这些因素在形成促进外国直接投资流入的东道国条件方面的相互作用。利用广义加性模型,我们考察了1970年至2009年非经合组织国家样本中和平年份、石油财富和法治对外国直接投资流入的同时影响。我们的研究结果表明,无论是石油出口国还是非石油出口国,稳定的和平都是吸引外国直接投资流入的关键因素。然而,法治的效果因石油财富而异。当石油出口国的法治较弱而不是较强时,它们会获得更多的外国直接投资流入,而非石油出口国的法治较强时,它们往往会获得更多的外国投资。我们认为,拥有石油财富的国家与适度薄弱的法治相结合,为采掘业的跨国公司(MNCs)寻求垄断租金提供了有利的环境。相反,没有石油财富的国家应该创造稳定而有效的环境,保护产权,提高劳动力市场的灵活性,以吸引非资源寻求型跨国公司。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of information and communication technologies on fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency of China's grain production 信息通信技术对中国粮食生产中化肥农药利用效率的影响
4区 经济学 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/rode.13039
Qiubo Zhu, Mariska van der Voort, Guangcheng Ren, Junfei Bai
Abstract Based on a panel data from National Rural Fixed Point Survey (NRFP), this study explored the effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency of China's grain production and the mechanisms using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and two‐way fixed‐effects model with two‐stage least square (2SLS) estimation. The results show that the average fertilizer use efficiency (FE), pesticide use efficiency (PE) and comprehensive fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency (CFPE) of grain production were 0.286, 0.404, and 0.364 respectively during 2003–2011. It should be noted that the CFPE decreased by 48.39% during 2003–2011 and showed a descending trend in all regions. ICTs had significant positive effects on FE, PE, and CPFE which could be explained by providing farmers more sustainable knowledge and hence shifting farming practices from overusing fertilizer towards using farmyard manure as a substitute. ICTs' positive effects were more pronounced for farmers with higher‐level education and in central region. Additionally, ICTs had significant spillover effects, extending from users to nonusers within the villages. These results suggest that ICTs could be considered as an effective way to increase the fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China.
摘要基于全国农村定点调查(NRFP)的面板数据,采用随机前沿分析(SFA)和两阶段最小二乘(2SLS)估计的双向固定效应模型,探讨了信息通信技术(ict)对中国粮食生产中化肥和农药使用效率的影响及其机制。结果表明:2003-2011年粮食生产的平均肥料利用效率(FE)、农药利用效率(PE)和化肥农药综合利用效率(CFPE)分别为0.286、0.404和0.364;值得注意的是,2003-2011年CFPE下降了48.39%,各区域均呈现下降趋势。ict对FE、PE和CPFE产生了显著的积极影响,这可以通过向农民提供更可持续的知识来解释,从而将农业实践从过度使用肥料转向使用农家肥作为替代品。信息通信技术对受教育程度较高的农民和中部地区的积极影响更为明显。此外,信息通信技术具有显著的溢出效应,从村庄内的用户扩展到非用户。这些结果表明,信息通信技术可以作为提高化肥和农药使用效率,促进中国农业可持续发展的有效途径。
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引用次数: 0
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Review of Development Economics
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