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An empirical application of herding behavior and compliance in the COVID-19 crisis 在 COVID-19 危机中对羊群行为和遵纪守法的实证应用
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12373
Helena Nilsson, Mikaela Backman

There is evidence that individuals engage in herding behavior in diverse settings, ranging from fashion choices to financial markets. By examining the exogenous shock caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 and unique data measuring the footfalls in downtown Jönköping, Sweden, we empirically assess how individuals respond to the restrictions imposed by the government and to the behavior of others, that is, herding. To this end, a regression discontinuity analysis with time as the running variable is applied. We find a negative effect of the restriction on footfalls, indicating that individuals follow the imposed governmental restrictions. However, we also find indications that individuals imitate the actions of others and engage in herd behavior even when the cost of doing so is very high; that is, it could result in severe illness or even death. With the use the unique setting of Sweden, where there have been no enforced lockdowns, we contribute with knowledge related to how effective voluntary restrictions are and the influence of others on one's decision making. Although the nature of the studied sample limits the external generalizability of the results, it may offer guidance for future interventions in clearly delineated settings.

有证据表明,个人在从时尚选择到金融市场等各种环境中都会出现羊群行为。通过研究 COVID-19 爆发造成的外生冲击和瑞典延雪平市中心人流量的独特测量数据,我们实证评估了个人如何对政府施加的限制和其他人的行为(即羊群行为)做出反应。为此,我们采用了以时间为运行变量的回归不连续分析法。我们发现,限制措施对人流量有负面影响,这表明个人会遵循政府施加的限制措施。不过,我们也发现了一些迹象,表明个人会模仿他人的行为,并参与从众行为,即使这样做的代价非常高昂,即可能导致重病甚至死亡。瑞典是一个没有强制封锁的国家,利用瑞典这一独特的环境,我们对自愿限制的有效性以及他人对个人决策的影响做出了贡献。虽然研究样本的性质限制了研究结果的外部推广性,但它可以为未来在明确界定的环境中进行干预提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Smartphones and attitudes to intimate partner violence: Evidence from Africa 智能手机与对亲密伴侣暴力的态度:来自非洲的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12371
Robert Gillanders, Glenn McNamara

This paper, using data from the Afrobarometer surveys, examines the potential for smartphones to influence attitudes to intimate partner violence (IPV). Controlling for ownership of television and radio, we find that those living in areas with a higher incidence of smartphone ownership are more likely to state that it is never justifiable for a man to beat his wife. This is the case for both male and female respondents. We find that the strength of the association between regional smartphone proliferation and attitudes to IPV is similar for those who frequently get news from social media and those who get news from elsewhere. This suggests that our results are not driven entirely by personal social media use. Finally, we only find a statistically significant relationship for those who are socially conservative.

本文利用非洲晴雨表调查的数据,研究了智能手机影响人们对亲密伴侣暴力(IPV)的态度的可能性。在控制电视和广播拥有率的情况下,我们发现,生活在智能手机拥有率较高地区的受访者更倾向于认为男人打妻子是没有道理的。男性和女性受访者的情况都是如此。我们发现,对于那些经常从社交媒体获取新闻的受访者和那些从其他地方获取新闻的受访者来说,地区智能手机普及率与他们对 IPV 的态度之间的关联程度是相似的。这表明,我们的结果并不完全是由个人社交媒体的使用所驱动的。最后,我们只发现那些社会保守主义者与此有显著的统计学关系。
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引用次数: 0
Does food import contribute to rising obesity in low- and middle-income countries? 食品进口是否导致中低收入国家肥胖率上升?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-01-28 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12369
Marta Marson, Donatella Saccone, Elena Vallino

Several studies show a positive association between the rise of obesity in developing countries and globalization, trade, and food trade, but most do not account for reverse causality between the prevalence of obesity and trade flows. Moreover, most studies adopt broad definitions of trade and food trade, notwithstanding the main effects of trade on obesity may pass through import of specific foods. We address these concerns by empirically investigating the impact of food import on obesity in a sample of 116 developing countries (2000–2016) and by focusing, particularly, on processed and sugar-rich food. This is done by controlling for other globalization-related factors and by correcting the bias stemming from potential reverse causality through a two-step approach instrumenting obesity with the average height of adult population. One main robust conclusion emerges: it is neither economic and cultural globalization nor general food import, but rather the import of processed and sugar-rich food, which contributes to increase obesity.

一些研究表明,发展中国家肥胖症的增加与全球化、贸易和食品贸易之间存在正相关关系,但大多数研究并没有考虑到肥胖症发病率与贸易流动之间的反向因果关系。此外,尽管贸易对肥胖症的主要影响可能通过特定食品的进口产生,但大多数研究对贸易和食品贸易采用了宽泛的定义。为了解决这些问题,我们以 116 个发展中国家为样本(2000-2016 年),通过实证研究食品进口对肥胖症的影响,并特别关注加工食品和含糖量高的食品。为此,我们控制了其他与全球化相关的因素,并通过用成年人口平均身高作为肥胖的工具,分两步纠正了潜在反向因果关系产生的偏差。得出的一个主要可靠结论是:导致肥胖增加的既不是经济和文化全球化,也不是一般的食品进口,而是加工食品和含糖量高的食品的进口。
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引用次数: 0
The shape of business cycles: A cross-country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory 商业周期的形态:弗里德曼采摘理论的跨国分析
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12370
Emanuel Kohlscheen, Richhild Moessner, Daniel M. Rees

We test the international applicability of Friedman's plucking theory of the business cycle in 18 advanced economies between 1970 and 2019. We find that in countries where labour markets are more flexible (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States), unemployment rates typically return to pre-recession levels, in line with Friedman's theory. Elsewhere, unemployment rate recoveries are less complete. Output recoveries differ less across countries, but more across episodes: on average, half of the decline in GDP during a recession persists. In contrast, the extent of labour market tightening or output growth during a boom generally does not provide any information about the intensity of the subsequent recession. In terms of sectors, declines in manufacturing are typically fully reversed. In contrast, construction-driven recessions, which are often associated with bursting property price bubbles, tend to be persistent.

我们在 1970 年至 2019 年间的 18 个发达经济体中检验了弗里德曼的商业周期拔节理论在国际上的适用性。我们发现,在劳动力市场较为灵活的国家(澳大利亚、加拿大、丹麦、瑞士、英国、美国),失业率通常会恢复到经济衰退前的水平,这与弗里德曼的理论相符。在其他国家,失业率的恢复则不那么彻底。不同国家的产出恢复情况差异较小,但不同时期的差异较大:平均而言,衰退期间国内生产总值下降的一半会持续存在。相比之下,经济繁荣时期的劳动力市场紧缩程度或产出增长通常并不能提供有关随后衰退强度的任何信息。就行业而言,制造业的衰退通常会完全逆转。与此相反,建筑业驱动的衰退往往与房地产价格泡沫破灭有关,往往具有持续性。
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引用次数: 0
Does women's political empowerment matter in military spending? 赋予妇女政治权力对军费开支重要吗?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12368
Joseph Keneck-Massil, Iliassou Nkariepoun-Njoya, Bernard Clery Nomo-Beyala

Despite recognition of the importance of women's political rights for the functioning of modern states, women's participation in political debate and decision-making remains low around the world. As the first study of its kind, this article examines the impact of women's political empowerment on military spending. Using a sample of 163 developed and developing countries, the article shows that women's political empowerment helps to reduce military spending. Moreover, this result remains robust when dealing with the level of development, endogeneity issues and geographical location. As an explanation, we highlight the role of women politically engaged in improving governance through the reduction of corruption, peacebuilding, their preference for social spending like education and health and their role in reduction discrimination against women.

尽管人们认识到妇女的政治权利对现代国家运作的重要性,但世界各地妇女参与政治辩论和决策的程度仍然很低。作为同类研究中的第一篇,本文探讨了妇女政治赋权对军费开支的影响。文章以 163 个发达国家和发展中国家为样本,表明赋予妇女政治权力有助于减少军费开支。此外,在处理发展水平、内生性问题和地理位置时,这一结果仍然是稳健的。作为解释,我们强调了妇女在政治上通过减少腐败、建设和平来改善治理的作用,她们对教育和卫生等社会支出的偏好,以及她们在减少对妇女歧视方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Liberalization, IMF Conditionality, and Policy Substitution in Developing Countries 发展中国家的贸易自由化、国际货币基金组织的条件限制和政策替代
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12366
Matthias Busse, Tim Vogel

Substantial tariff reductions and increased usage of non-tariff measures (NTMs) have been key dynamics of global trade policy in recent decades. We use highly disaggregated data on applied most favored nation tariffs, NTMs, and trade to investigate how International Monetary Fund (IMF) conditionality as a form of external pressure to reduce tariffs contributed to this dynamic in developing countries. Our results show that structural adjustment programs (SAPs) effectively lowered tariffs without increasing the usage of NTMs. A typical three-year program containing tariff conditionality decreased tariff rates in the range of 2.0 to 3.8 percentage points in total. Furthermore, IMF programs reduced NTM initializations significantly. We also show that tariff conditionality was more effective in initiating tariff cuts for countries without previous greater globalization efforts than being a “catalyst” for ongoing liberalization efforts.

大幅削减关税和增加非关税措施的使用是近几十年来全球贸易政策的主要动态。我们利用有关最惠国关税、非关税措施和贸易的高度分类数据,研究国际货币基金组织(IMF)的条件性措施作为降低关税的一种外部压力,是如何促成发展中国家的这一动态的。我们的研究结果表明,结构调整方案(SAPs)在有效降低关税的同时并未增加非关税措施的使用。一个典型的包含关税条件的三年期计划总共降低了 2.0 到 3.8 个百分点的关税率。此外,国际货币基金组织的计划大大减少了非关税措施的初始化。我们还发现,关税附加条件在启动关税削减方面对那些之前没有加大全球化力度的国家更为有效,而不是对正在进行的自由化努力起到 "催化剂 "的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Sunlight, culture and state capacity 阳光、文化和国家能力
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12367
Roberto Ezcurra

This paper examines the impact of ultraviolet radiation (UV-R) on state capacity. The results indicate that the intensity of UV-R is a strong predictor of cross-country differences in state capacity. Countries with a higher degree of UV-R exposure tend on average to have weaker states. This finding remains unaffected after controlling for different variables that may be correlated with both UV-R and state capacity, including an extensive set of geographical, historical and contemporary factors. The observed link between sunlight and state capacity is not driven by potential outliers and is robust to the employment of alternative measures of state capacity, estimation methods and other sensitivity checks. Furthermore, the analysis also reveals that the individualistic–collectivist dimension of culture acts as a transmission channel connecting UV-R and state capacity. The estimates show that a lower degree of UV-R exposure leads to the adoption of individualistic values, which in turn contribute to the development of state capacity.

本文研究了紫外线辐射(UV-R)对国家能力的影响。结果表明,紫外线辐射强度是国家能力跨国差异的有力预测因素。紫外线辐射程度越高的国家,其国家能力平均越弱。在控制了可能与紫外线辐射和国家能力相关的不同变量(包括一系列广泛的地理、历史和当代因素)之后,这一结论仍未受到影响。观察到的日照与国家能力之间的联系并不是由潜在的异常值引起的,而且在使用其他国家能力衡量标准、估算方法和其他敏感性检查时也是稳健的。此外,分析还揭示了文化的个人主义-集体主义维度是连接紫外线-R 和国家能力的传导渠道。估算结果表明,较低的 UV-R 暴露程度会导致采用个人主义价值观,而个人主义价值观反过来又会促进国家能力的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Economics is beautiful! 经济学是美丽的!
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12365
Walter E. Block

Economics is beautiful, and all undergraduates who love and revere beauty should major in this dismal science. Beauty is defined, for present purposes as cooperation, coordination, teamwork, togetherness, inclusiveness, and assists in sports. The greater the number of people participating in the “team,” the more gorgeous is the cooperation. The less central direction, whether implicit or explicit, other things equal, the greater is the loveliness of the coordination. The economy, that which economists study, beats all the competition, as, at least ideally, it encompasses the most people on the “team” (all of us!) with the least outside direction. Well, none at all, given full free enterprise with no central planning whatsoever. That, at least, would be the extreme degree of economic freedom.

经济学是美丽的,所有爱美、崇尚美的大学生都应该主修这门凄美的科学。就目前而言,美被定义为体育运动中的合作、协调、团队精神、团结、包容和协助。参与 "团队 "的人数越多,合作就越华丽。在其他条件相同的情况下,不管是隐性的还是显性的,中心指导越少,协调的魅力就越大。经济学家所研究的经济打败了所有的竞争,因为至少在理想情况下,它包含了最多的 "团队 "成员(我们所有人!)和最少的外部指导。如果是完全自由的企业,没有任何中央计划,那就完全没有。这至少是经济自由的极端程度。
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引用次数: 0
The link between economic growth and emigration from developing countries: Does migrants' skill composition matter? 经济增长与发展中国家移民之间的联系:移民的技能构成是否重要?
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12364
Mauro Lanati, Rainer Thiele

Tackling the root causes of migration from developing countries through development cooperation has been suggested as an essential part of the policy mix in OECD migrant destinations. This is even though the evidence on whether economic development leads to more or less people emigrating is so far inconclusive. We investigate the relationship between income per capita and emigration to OECD countries separately for three different skill groups—low-skilled, medium-skilled and high-skilled emigrants—being the first to employ panel regression approaches that account for cross-country heterogeneity and cover a policy-relevant time frame of about 5 years. Our findings reveal a universal negative association between income per capita and emigration for all three skill groups and for different income thresholds. This implies that policy makers should not be too concerned about potential trade-offs between (successful) development cooperation and immigration management, at least in the short to medium run that our analysis covers. At the same time, the scope for using development cooperation as a migration policy instrument can be considered to be limited given the modest size of the estimated income effect: Taking our point estimates at face value, a 10% rise in GDP per capita would on average lead to about 3600 fewer immigrants per destination.

通过发展合作解决发展中国家移民的根本原因已被建议作为经合组织移民目的地政策组合的重要组成部分。尽管到目前为止,关于经济发展是否会导致更多或更少的人移民的证据还没有定论。我们针对三个不同的技能群体——低技能、中等技能和高技能移民——分别调查了人均收入与移民到经合组织国家之间的关系,首次采用了考虑跨国异质性的面板回归方法,并涵盖了大约5年的政策相关时间框架。我们的研究结果表明,对于所有三种技能群体和不同的收入门槛,人均收入与移民之间存在普遍的负相关关系。这意味着政策制定者不应该过于关注(成功的)发展合作与移民管理之间的潜在权衡,至少在我们的分析所涵盖的中短期内是这样。与此同时,考虑到估计收入效应的适度规模,利用发展合作作为移民政策工具的范围可以被认为是有限的:从表面上看,我们的点估计,人均GDP增长10%,平均将导致每个目的地的移民减少约3600人。
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引用次数: 0
Income distribution and nudity on social media: Attention economics of Instagram stars 收入分配与社交媒体上的裸露行为:Instagram 明星的注意力经济学
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 Arts and Humanities Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12363
Sophia Gaenssle

Social media stars gain star-status with uploads on social media pages like YouTube, TikTok, or Instagram. One of the most popular platforms is “Instagram” owned by Meta/Facebook. The growing social, cultural, and economic power of so-called influencers raises questions about key drivers of success and, moreover, distribution of income on social media platforms. Instagram has been accused of strategically favoring images with nude content. In order to shed light on this socio-critical aspect, this paper examines the following research questions: Does body exposure drive income success on Instagram? Is there a difference between male and female content in this regard? This paper empirically analyzes 500 top Instagram stars within the categories (1) fashion and beauty, (2) fitness and sports, (3) music, (4) photo and arts, and (5) food and vegan. The data provide information on popularity, posting behavior, and price estimates per post. Using hybrid regression models, the results show indeed positive impact of body exposure on monetary success. Accounts with high level of body exposure achieve higher prices and advertising revenues than accounts with less nudity, regardless of the gender. Regarding gender differences, male content achieves on average higher advertising prices, whereas female accounts provide more branded content and eventually achieve higher advertising revenues.

社交媒体明星通过在 YouTube、TikTok 或 Instagram 等社交媒体页面上传照片获得明星地位。最受欢迎的平台之一是 Meta/Facebook 旗下的 "Instagram"。所谓的 "影响者 "在社会、文化和经济方面的影响力日益增长,这引发了人们对社交媒体平台成功的主要驱动力以及收入分配的质疑。Instagram 曾被指责战略性地偏爱含有裸体内容的图片。为了揭示这一社会批判性问题,本文探讨了以下研究问题:在 Instagram 上,身体暴露是否会影响收入?在这方面,男性和女性的内容是否存在差异?本文对 Instagram 上的 500 位顶级明星进行了实证分析,涉及的类别包括:(1)时尚与美容;(2)健身与运动;(3)音乐;(4)摄影与艺术;(5)食品与素食。数据提供了人气、发帖行为和每条帖子的价格估算等信息。使用混合回归模型,结果显示身体曝光对金钱成功确实有积极影响。与裸露程度较低的账户相比,裸露程度高的账户无论性别如何,都能获得更高的价格和广告收入。在性别差异方面,男性内容平均获得更高的广告价格,而女性账户则提供更多品牌内容,最终获得更高的广告收入。
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引用次数: 0
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