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A post-politics earnings penalty? Evidence from politicians' lifetime income trajectories (1970–2019) 从政后的收入惩罚?政治家一生收入轨迹(1970-2019)的证据
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-11 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12358
Benny Geys, Rune J. Sørensen

Politicians are commonly believed to gain financially from holding and/or having held office. We argue that there may often also be economic downsides to pursuing a political career and investigate whether and when politicians can (not) capitalize on their political experience. We thereby study both entry into and exit from political office and directly compare the returns to politics across government levels and types of politicians. Empirically, we build on detailed information from Norwegian administrative register data over the period 1970–2019 to study individual-level income developments before, during and after a political career at the national and local levels (covering nearly 22,000 individuals and 700,000 person-years). Using an event-study methodology, we show that politicians on average witness a significant income boost during their time in office. In sharp contrast, leaving political office is on average associated with a substantial drop in income, which generally outweighs the income gain from entry into office. These findings suggest that most politicians face a net present value loss from holding office.

人们普遍认为,政治家会从担任和/或曾经担任的职务中获得经济收益。我们认为,从政往往也会带来经济上的弊端,并研究从政者是否以及何时可以(不可以)利用其从政经验。因此,我们研究了政治职位的进入和退出,并直接比较了不同级别政府和不同类型政治家的政治回报。在实证研究方面,我们以1970-2019年期间挪威行政登记数据的详细信息为基础,研究了个人在国家和地方层面从政之前、期间和之后的收入发展情况(涵盖近22,000人和700,000人年)。利用事件研究方法,我们发现政治家在任期间的平均收入显著增加。与此形成鲜明对比的是,离开政治职位平均会导致收入大幅下降,这通常会超过任职期间的收入增长。这些发现表明,大多数政治家在任职期间都会面临净现值损失。
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引用次数: 0
Does the unemployment rate moderate the well-being disadvantage of the unemployed? Within-region estimates from the European Social Survey 失业率是否减缓了失业者的福利劣势?来自欧洲社会调查的区域内估计值
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-04 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12357
Gábor Hajdu, Tamás Hajdu

Using pooled cross-sectional data (eight waves of the European Social Survey), this work analysed how the regional unemployment rate influences the well-being disadvantages of the unemployed. We estimate region fixed effects and slopes models that, unlike the standard region fixed effects approach, provide an unbiased estimate of the cross-level interaction term (between being unemployed and the unemployment rate) in the absence of unobserved time-variant confounders. The results show that the satisfaction disadvantage of the unemployed (relative to the employed) is larger when the regional unemployment rate is higher. Smaller and insignificant differences were found regarding happiness. These results are in line with the argument that worse re-employment perspectives in high-unemployment regions may be particularly harmful to unemployed people. These results do not contradict the claim that, in regions with a weaker social norm to work, unemployed people may be more satisfied. Instead, they suggest that the unemployment rate does not reflect the social norm to work.

这项研究利用汇集的横截面数据(欧洲社会调查的八次波次),分析了地区失业率如何影响失业者的福利劣势。我们估计了地区固定效应和斜率模型,与标准的地区固定效应方法不同的是,在没有未观察到的时间变量混杂因素的情况下,这些模型提供了对跨级别交互项(失业与失业率之间)的无偏估计。结果显示,当地区失业率较高时,失业者(相对于就业者)的满意度劣势更大。幸福感方面的差异较小且不显著。这些结果与高失业率地区较差的再就业前景可能对失业者特别有害的论点相吻合。这些结果与以下说法并不矛盾,即在工作社会规范较弱的地区,失业者可能会更满意。相反,这些结果表明,失业率并不反映工作的社会规范。
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引用次数: 0
The cost of love: Solving the gift anomaly 爱的代价解决礼物异常问题
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12355
Elias L. Khalil

Friendship-and-love affords bonding that satisfies what can be called “transcendental preferences”—in contradistinction of “substantive preferences” afforded by, for example, food, clothes, and shelter. Substantive preferences involve ordinary “substantive cost,” whereas transcendental preferences involve “bonding cost” that includes heartaches, obsession, and emotional turmoil. What about the cost of gifts such as flowers, time, and other carriers of friendship-and-love? The greater is the expenditure on gifts, the greater the bonding cost. This paper investigates the following question: How should we model bonding cost, which includes the cost of gift, in relation to substantive cost? Given bonding cost and substantive cost share the same budget, neoclassical economists treat them as commensurable and, hence, transcendental and substantive preferences make up a unidimensional objective function. This treatment, however, originates the “gift anomaly”: If people easily substitute between the two genera of preferences, why do they consider the demand of payments for visiting their grandmothers—or payments for voting and sexual intercourse—as repugnant (taboo)? To solve the gift anomaly, this paper is critical of the standard economist's entry point. This paper proposes bonding and substantive costs as incommensurable and, corollary, transcendental and substantive preferences as incommensurable as well. This paper further shows how, without undermining the incommensurability thesis, the incommensurability is up to a limit: the two genera of costs and, corollary, the two genera of preferences are still linked via the income effect—as opposed to the substitution effect.

友情和爱情所提供的亲情可以满足所谓的 "超越性偏好"--与诸如食物、衣服和住所等 "实质性偏好 "截然不同。实质性偏好涉及普通的 "实质性成本",而超越性偏好涉及 "结合成本",包括心痛、痴迷和情感波动。那么,鲜花、时间和其他友情与爱情的载体等礼物的成本又是多少呢?礼物花费越多,纽带成本就越大。本文探讨了以下问题:我们应该如何建立包括礼物成本在内的纽带成本与实质成本的关系模型?鉴于绑定成本和实质成本共享相同的预算,新古典经济学家将它们视为可相提并论的,因此,超验偏好和实质偏好构成了一个单维目标函数。然而,这种处理方法产生了 "礼物异常":如果人们很容易在这两类偏好之间进行替代,那么为什么他们会认为探望祖母的付款需求,或者投票和性交的付款需求是令人反感的(禁忌)呢?为了解决礼物异常现象,本文对标准经济学家的切入点进行了批判。本文提出,结合成本和实质成本是不可通约的,由此推论,超验偏好和实质偏好也是不可通约的。本文进一步说明,在不破坏不可通约性论点的前提下,不可通约性是有限度的:两类成本以及由此推论的两类偏好仍然通过收入效应--而非替代效应--联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal taxation for democracies with less than perfect voters: A public choice perspective 选民不够完美的民主国家的最佳税收:公共选择视角
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-24 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12356
Roger D. Congleton

This paper analyzes optimal tax policy from the perspective of voters who want public policies to systematically advance their interests. Self-acknowledged ignorance implies that voters have a practical interest in transparent and stable tax systems that allow personal tax burdens to be calculated accurately and easily. Such properties reduce voter mistakes. However, a voter's normative interests may conflict with these practical interests, because ideas about a good life or good society often support tax system complexity. Tradeoffs between these two aims of democratic tax systems imply that the optimal tax system for a democracy neither minimizes voter errors nor maximizes a social welfare function.

本文从选民的角度分析了最优税收政策,选民希望公共政策能够系统地促进他们的利益。选民自认无知,这意味着他们对透明而稳定的税收制度有着实际的兴趣,因为这种制度能够准确而方便地计算出个人的税收负担。这种特性可以减少选民的失误。然而,选民的规范利益可能与这些实际利益相冲突,因为有关美好生活或美好社会的观念往往支持税制的复杂性。民主税制这两个目标之间的权衡意味着,民主国家的最优税制既不能使选民失误最小化,也不能使社会福利函数最大化。
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引用次数: 0
Forever young: Relative age effects in Belgian political selection 永远年轻:比利时政治选择中的相对年龄效应
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12353
Alan Al Yussef, Bruno Heyndels, Pauline Le Boulaire

Political selection is crucial for the functioning of democracy. However, the practice—in education and sports contexts—of artificially dividing school-age children into different age groups leads to a considerable bias in this selection. The probability of becoming a (successful) politician depends on individuals' relative age. Being born shortly after the cut-off date significantly increases the probability that an individual will be politically successful later in life. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find strong evidence of such relative age effect (RAE) among a large sample of Belgian federal parliamentarians over the period 1950–2019 (N = 4032), but not among municipal councillors (N = 7387), nor among municipal candidates (N = 36,740) in the 2018 election. The estimated overrepresentation of federal members of the parliament (MPs) born immediately after the cut-off date is up to 90% compared to politicians born just before the cut-off date. The overrepresentation is observed over the whole period and thus seems to be deeply rooted in the political system. We find the RAE to have a gendered dimension: The effect is driven by early-born male politicians' overrepresentation. No significant RAE was found among female politicians.

政治选择对民主的运作至关重要。然而,在教育和体育背景下,人为地将学龄儿童分为不同年龄组的做法导致了这种选择的相当大的偏见。成为(成功的)政治家的概率取决于个人的相对年龄。在截止日期后不久出生大大增加了一个人在以后的生活中取得政治成功的可能性。使用回归不连续性设计,我们在1950年至2019年期间的大量比利时联邦议员样本中发现了这种相对年龄效应(RAE)的有力证据(N = 4032),但不在市议员中(N = 7387),也不在市政候选人中(N = 36740)。与在截止日期前出生的政客相比,在截止日期后立即出生的联邦议员(议员)的比例估计高达90%。在整个时期都可以观察到代表人数过多的现象,因此似乎深深植根于政治制度。我们发现RAE具有性别维度:这种影响是由出生较早的男性政治家的代表性过高所驱动的。女性政治家中没有发现显著的RAE。
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引用次数: 0
Free riding on short-time work allowances? Results from an experimental survey design 免费享受短期工作津贴?实验调查设计的结果
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12354
Mario Bossler, Christopher Osiander, Julia Schmidtke, Mark Trappmann

Short-time work (STW) is a policy measure whose prominence increases during economic crises and is intended to stabilize the labor market. Employers can temporarily reduce employees' working hours, which are in turn paid by the social security system in the meantime. Although short-time work—by design—saves employers a fraction of their wage costs, little is known about free riding behavior when using this option. Accordingly, we analyze the employee-reported free riding experience with respect to longer actual working hours than accounted for in employees' short-time work allowances, the unchanged workloads experienced by these employees, and announced lay-off decisions. Since these questions are certainly sensitive, we employ the crosswise model, a privacy-preserving technique, in a random half of the sample. Our results show significant employee-reported prevalences across all dimensions and a significant association between free riding and workers' job dissatisfaction. These findings thus highlight the importance of the crosswise model in uncovering these findings and demonstrate a specific drawback in the application of short-time work.

短期工作(STW)是一项在经济危机期间更加突出的政策措施,旨在稳定劳动力市场。雇主可以暂时减少员工的工作时间,同时由社会保障系统支付。尽管短期工作在设计上为雇主节省了一小部分工资成本,但人们对使用这种选择时的搭便车行为知之甚少。因此,我们分析了员工报告的搭便车经历,包括实际工作时间比员工的短期工作津贴更长、这些员工经历的工作量不变,以及宣布的裁员决定。由于这些问题肯定是敏感的,我们在随机的一半样本中使用了交叉模型,这是一种隐私保护技术。我们的研究结果显示,员工报告的所有维度的患病率都很高,搭便车与员工工作不满之间存在显著关联。因此,这些发现突出了横向模型在揭示这些发现方面的重要性,并证明了短期工作应用中的一个具体缺陷。
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引用次数: 0
Social determinants of citations: An empirical analysis of UK economists 引文的社会决定因素:英国经济学家的实证分析
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12352
Carlo D'Ippoliti, Lucio Gobbi, Christian A. Mongeau Ospina, Giulia Zacchia

We investigate to what extent personal proximity and similarity in professional and political attributes, besides scientific factors, help explaining citations between economists. We do so by using a unique dataset of all academic economists based in the United Kingdom, created specifically for this study by merging RePEc data on works published in the past four decades with information collected by manually processing their curriculum vitae (CVs). We investigate directed citations within each pair of authors active in a same year, finding that social factors play an important role as predictors of citations. An author is systematically more likely to cite another economist not only if they work on similar topics, but most relevantly if they have been co-authors, faculty colleagues, alumni of the same Alma Mater, and even if they express similar political views. The implication is that citations do not signal the intrinsic quality of research outputs only, but they also capture social and professional connections. When citation counts are used to reward academics, economists have an incentive to join many and large professional communities as doing so would increase their predicted citations.

我们调查了除了科学因素之外,个人在职业和政治属性上的接近性和相似性在多大程度上有助于解释经济学家之间的引用。我们使用了一个由英国所有学术经济学家组成的独特数据集,该数据集是专门为这项研究创建的,它将过去四十年发表的作品的RePEc数据与手动处理其简历(CV)收集的信息合并在一起。我们调查了同一年活跃的每对作者的定向引用,发现社会因素在引用的预测因素中发挥着重要作用。一位作者更有可能系统地引用另一位经济学家,不仅是如果他们从事类似的主题,而且最相关的是,如果他们是合著者、教员同事、同一母校的校友,即使他们表达了类似的政治观点。这意味着,引文不仅表明了研究成果的内在质量,而且还反映了社会和专业联系。当引用次数被用来奖励学者时,经济学家有动机加入许多大型专业社区,因为这样做会增加他们的预测引用次数。
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引用次数: 0
Learning from corporate governance: First conceptualization of a liability for political decision-making 从公司治理中学习:政治决策责任的首次概念化
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-27 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12351
Florian Follert

The institution of liability serves to mitigate the lack of care in almost all areas, whether private or business. However, we have not yet found such an institution in political decision-making. Surprisingly, the literature has not discussed a specific institution that subjects political actors who fail to exercise due diligence in their decision-making regarding personal liability. Hence, this paper aims to fill this gap and derive the necessity of internalizing the negative effects resulting from the imperfections of the market for political services in general and the democratic process, particularly by a liability rule. To design the new institution, we draw on the findings of corporate governance, combining economic thinking in incentives and legal knowledge expressed in the law of the corporation. In this respect, this paper is the first to make a concrete proposal for political liability accompanied by a political judgment rule. However, it is important to emphasize that the aim is not to punish a wrong decision but to provide strong incentives to prevent it ex ante. Political liability must be understood as a process-oriented institution that considers uncertainty and decision-making complexities. By proposing and analyzing this new institution, this work contributes to a broader discussion of incentive structures in the political process of modern democracies and shows how the political sphere can learn from the corporate world.

责任制度有助于缓解几乎所有领域的护理不足,无论是私人领域还是商业领域。然而,我们尚未在政治决策中找到这样一个机构。令人惊讶的是,文献中没有讨论一个特定的制度来约束那些在个人责任决策中未能尽职尽责的政治行为者。因此,本文旨在填补这一空白,并得出将政治服务市场和民主进程的不完善所产生的负面影响内化的必要性,特别是通过责任规则。在设计新制度时,我们借鉴了公司治理的发现,将激励中的经济思维与公司法中表达的法律知识相结合。在这方面,本文首次提出了政治责任附带政治判断规则的具体建议。然而,重要的是要强调,其目的不是惩罚错误的决定,而是提供强有力的激励措施,以事先防止错误的决定。政治责任必须被理解为一个以过程为导向的机构,考虑不确定性和决策的复杂性。通过提出和分析这一新制度,这项工作有助于更广泛地讨论现代民主政治进程中的激励结构,并展示了政治领域如何向企业界学习。
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引用次数: 0
Is there a happy culture? Multiple paths to national subjective well-being 有快乐的文化吗?实现国民主观幸福的多种途径
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12343
Maria C. Pereira, Filipe Coelho, Graça Miranda Silva

This study relies on a novel research approach to analyze how national income, income inequality, institutional quality, and culture combine to generate different recipes for eliciting subjective well-being (SWB). Specifically, we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, which facilitates the study of the combinations of conditions (paths) that act synergistically to achieve a certain outcome. The study uses data from over 70 countries and finds several combinations of conditions for different periods which lead equally to high SWB, as well as several configurations equally leading to low SWB. Additionally, we find that high national income, income equality, high-quality institutions, and each of the cultural dimensions are not necessary conditions for high SWB. However, high-power distance and low individualism are necessary conditions to achieve low SWB. The results for a few individual conditions are in line with previous studies, but we also determine that the effect of the remainder depends on the other conditions present in each combination. Overall, the results deliver an original and contrasting view of the factors leading to a nation's high or low SWB.

这项研究依赖于一种新颖的研究方法来分析国民收入、收入不平等、制度质量和文化如何结合起来,产生不同的激发主观幸福感(SWB)的配方。具体来说,我们使用模糊集定性比较分析,这有助于研究协同作用以达到一定结果的条件(路径)的组合。这项研究使用了来自70多个国家的数据,发现了不同时期的几种条件组合,这些条件同样会导致高SWB,以及几种配置同样会导致低SWB。此外,我们发现高国民收入、收入平等、高质量的机构和每一个文化层面都不是高SWB的必要条件。然而,高功率距离和低个人主义是实现低SWB的必要条件。一些单独条件的结果与之前的研究一致,但我们也确定了剩余条件的影响取决于每个组合中存在的其他条件。总的来说,这些结果对导致一个国家SWB高或低的因素提供了一个新颖而对比的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Do 2 weeks of instruction time matter? Using a natural experiment to estimate the effect of a calendar change on students' performance Do 2 几周的教学时间很重要?使用自然实验来评估日历变化对学生表现的影响
IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12350
Ismael Sanz, J. D. Tena

This paper investigates the effect on academic performance of an exogenous educational reform that reduced the school calendar of non-fee-paying schools in the Madrid region (Spain) by approximately two weeks, leaving the basic curriculum unchanged. To identify the consequences of such a measure, we exploit the fact that it did not affect private schools (control group) and the existence of an external cognitive test that measures academic performance before and after its application in the region. We find that the reform worsened students' educational outcomes by around 0.13 of a standard deviation. This effect was especially strong in the subjects of Spanish and Mathematics. We further explored quantile effects across the distribution of exam scores, finding that the disruption had a more negative effect on students in the upper quartile than those in the lower quartile. Overall, the analysis shows a reduction in the gap across non-fee-paying schools and an increase in the gap between non-fee- and fee-paying schools.

本文调查了外生教育改革对学习成绩的影响,该改革将马德里地区(西班牙)非收费学校的校历缩短了约两周,基本课程保持不变。为了确定这一措施的后果,我们利用了这样一个事实,即它没有影响私立学校(对照组),并且存在一种外部认知测试,用于衡量在该地区应用前后的学习成绩。我们发现,改革使学生的教育成绩恶化了约0.13个标准差。这种影响在西班牙语和数学科目中尤为明显。我们进一步探讨了考试成绩分布中的分位数效应,发现这种干扰对上四分位数学生的负面影响比下四分位数的学生更大。总体而言,分析显示,非收费学校之间的差距有所缩小,非收费和收费学校之间差距有所扩大。
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引用次数: 0
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