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Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past 威权主义崩溃后通往民主的道路:比较案例选择和过去的教训
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221138408
Jean Lachapelle, S. Hellmeier
Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead to democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions to build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors and cases with a known outcome. We propose an innovative approach for finding informative comparisons for ongoing transitions after authoritarian breakdowns. We quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based on their structural preconditions. We then apply our approach to Sudan’s ongoing transition and draw lessons from two similar cases: the Philippines in 1986 (successful democratization); and Burma/Myanmar in 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows that structural factors are weak predictors of transition outcomes and that Sudan shares characteristics with cases of both failed and successful democratization. Therefore, democratic transition appears possible in Sudan.
能够推翻独裁者的群众运动并不总能带来民主。在过渡时期,活动人士面临着建立民主和防止独裁复辟的艰难抉择。现有的学术研究对支持民主的力量提供的指导有限,因为它关注的是不可改变的结构性因素和已知结果的案例。我们提出了一种创新的方法来寻找专制崩溃后正在进行的过渡的信息比较。我们根据其结构前提,量化了1945年以来由大规模起义引起的所有崩溃之间的相似性。然后,我们将我们的方法应用于苏丹正在进行的过渡,并从两个类似的案例中吸取教训:1986年的菲律宾(成功的民主化);1988年的缅甸(民主化失败)。我们的分析表明,结构性因素是过渡结果的弱预测因素,苏丹与民主化失败和成功的案例都有共同的特点。因此,民主过渡在苏丹看来是可能的。
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引用次数: 0
Picturing deliberation: How dissatisfied citizens make sense of it 描绘审议:不满的公民如何理解审议
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221139056
Ramon van der Does, G. Petit
What makes politically dissatisfied citizens enthusiastic about deliberation? And what makes them hate it instead? Based on a picture task embedded in a series of focus groups conducted in Belgium, we argue that differences in sense-making help to explain why dissatisfied citizens (do not) support deliberation. We focus on two groups of dissatisfied citizens: non-partisan activists and politically disadvantaged citizens. For both groups, we find that when they thought of deliberation as low-key, informal discussion, they linked it to respectful communication and beneficial outcomes; when they thought of it as formalized, structured discussion, their appraisals became much more negative. For researchers of deliberation, our results make clear that we should be careful in asking citizens what they think about ‘deliberation’ without inquiring into the way they interpret it. For deliberation practitioners, our findings underline the relevance of integrating informal interactions into the design of deliberative institutions.
是什么让对政治不满的公民热衷于审议?是什么让他们讨厌它呢?基于在比利时进行的一系列焦点小组中嵌入的图片任务,我们认为意义构建的差异有助于解释为什么不满的公民(不)支持审议。我们关注两类不满的公民:无党派活动人士和政治上处于不利地位的公民。对于两组人来说,我们发现,当他们认为审议是低调、非正式的讨论时,他们将其与尊重的沟通和有益的结果联系起来;当他们认为这是正式的、有组织的讨论时,他们的评价就变得消极得多。对于研究审议的人来说,我们的研究结果清楚地表明,我们应该谨慎地询问公民他们对“审议”的看法,而不是询问他们对“审议”的理解方式。对于审议实践者,我们的研究结果强调了将非正式互动整合到审议机构设计中的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Expanding anticipatory governance to legislatures: The emergence and global diffusion of legislature-based future institutions 将预期治理扩展到立法机构:以立法为基础的未来机构的出现和全球扩散
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221134995
Vesa Koskimaa, Tapio Raunio
Global challenges from climate change to the COVID-19 pandemic have raised legitimate questions about the ability of democratic decision-makers to prepare for such crises. Gradually, countries throughout the world have established state-level foresight mechanisms. Most operate under the executive branch, but increasingly such institutions have started to emerge also in legislatures, expanding anticipatory governance towards democratic publics. Drawing on a global survey, official documents and expert interviews, this article presents the first comprehensive analysis of the emergence and diffusion of legislature-based future institutions. We show that, despite the early emergence of a pacesetting institution, such committees have spread slowly and only very recently, and they still exist in only a few countries. For diffusion, the findings highlight the importance of the pacesetter, semi-formal networks of like-minded individuals and personalized agency. Most especially, the role of Members of Parliament (MPs) seems crucial, suggesting that expanding anticipatory governance to legislatures is largely in the hand of legislators.
从气候变化到新冠肺炎大流行等全球挑战,对民主决策者应对此类危机的能力提出了合理的质疑。世界各国逐步建立起国家级前瞻机制。大多数机构在行政部门下运作,但越来越多的此类机构也开始出现在立法机构中,将预期治理扩大到民主公众。本文通过全球调查、官方文件和专家访谈,首次全面分析了以立法为基础的未来机构的出现和传播。我们表明,尽管很早就出现了一个引领性的机构,但这种委员会的传播速度很慢,而且是最近才出现的,而且它们仍然只存在于少数国家。对于传播,研究结果强调了标兵、志同道合的个人和个性化机构的半正式网络的重要性。尤其是,国会议员的作用似乎至关重要,这表明将预期治理扩大到立法机构在很大程度上掌握在立法者手中。
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引用次数: 1
Imaginative policy surveys in divided societies: Feasibility, effect and perceived legitimacy 分裂社会中富有想象力的政策调查:可行性、效果和感知合法性
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221125049
John Garry, James Pow, Clifford Stevenson, P. Stone
We suggest a new democratic decision-making (or recommendation-making) device for divided societies that may be added to the democratic toolkit. Imaginative Policy Surveys in divided societies seek to combine the advantages of conventional attitude surveys (ability to generalise to the wider population) with some of the advantages of deliberative mini-publics (citizens learn about policy options and consider the perspective of members of the ethno-national out-group). Imaginative Policy Surveys consist of a conventional survey design with two added features: videos providing information and arguments and an imagined policy dialogue with an out-group member. We test the feasibility, effect and perceived legitimacy of Imaginative Policy Surveys in the deeply divided context of Northern Ireland, drawing on evidence from two experiments. We conclude that Imaginative Policy Surveys in divided societies are feasible, have a slight positive pro-compromise effect, and are perceived to be a legitimate decision-making mechanism to an equal extent by rival ethno-national groups.
我们建议为分裂的社会提供一种新的民主决策(或建议制定)工具,可以添加到民主工具包中。在分裂的社会中,富有想象力的政策调查试图将传统态度调查的优势(能够推广到更广泛的人群)与审慎的小公众的一些优势(公民了解政策选择并考虑种族-民族外群体成员的观点)结合起来。富有想象力的政策调查由传统的调查设计和两个附加功能组成:提供信息和论点的视频以及与外群体成员的想象政策对话。我们在北爱尔兰严重分裂的背景下,利用两个实验的证据,测试了想象政策调查的可行性、效果和感知合法性。我们的结论是,在分裂的社会中,想象政策调查是可行的,具有轻微的积极的促进妥协的作用,并且在同等程度上被敌对的种族-国家群体认为是一种合法的决策机制。
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引用次数: 0
Public support for the use of force in non-Western and non-major powers: The case of a China–Taiwan war 公众支持非西方和非主要大国使用武力:以中国-台湾战争为例
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221120792
Charles K. S. Wu, A. Wang, Yao‐Yuan Yeh, Fang-Yu Chen
Studies of public support for war among non-Western and non-major powers (NWNM) states are distinctive from United States foreign military operations. First, these wars often intrude on subjects’ direct livelihood. Second, great powers’ intervention can drastically alter the outcome of these wars. These factors have not been examined extensively in the war support literature. We fill this gap by spearheading several hypotheses of war support unique to NWNM countries. Through an original and representative survey experiment on a hypothetical military conflict between China and Taiwan, our analysis yields that the information about the United States coming to Taiwan’s defense in an armed conflict with China drives up war support by around 7% among the citizenry, although such information does not make the Taiwanese population more tolerant of combat casualties. In addition, perception of military training increases public support for war significantly. The findings suggest that the study of NWNM states could contribute to the war support literature from different perspectives.
关于非西方和非大国之间公众支持战争的研究与美国的外国军事行动不同。首先,这些战争经常侵犯受试者的直接生计。第二,大国的干预可以极大地改变这些战争的结果。这些因素在战争支援文献中没有得到广泛的研究。我们通过率先提出几个NWNM国家特有的战争支持假设来填补这一空白。通过对一个假设的中国和台湾军事冲突的原始和有代表性的调查实验,我们的分析得出,美国在与中国的武装冲突中来保卫台湾的信息使公民中的战争支持率上升了约7%,尽管这些信息并没有让台湾民众对战斗伤亡更加宽容。此外,对军事训练的认知大大增加了公众对战争的支持。研究结果表明,对北威州的研究可以从不同的角度为战争支持文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 5
Populist attitudes and challenges towards liberal democracy: An empirical assessment of the Turkish case 民粹主义对自由民主的态度和挑战:对土耳其案例的实证评估
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-02 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221119297
A. Çarkoğlu, Ezgi Elçi
The rise of populism presents a challenge to liberal democracy in various countries. This article questions how populist attitudes affect the democratic preferences of the electorate. Using representative survey data fielded from Turkey in 2019, we first tested the effect of populist attitudes on illiberal democratic attitudes. The results show the negative impact of populism on support for illiberal democratic attitudes. Next, we analyzed which dimension of populism correlates with illiberal democratic preferences. Our results pointed to the negative influence of the Manichean outlook on preferences concerning democracy. Contrary to expectations, as anti-elitist and people-centric attitudes increase, support for illiberal democracy decreases. Hence, the relative emphasis on different dimensions of populism is likely to shape the net balance of its influence on democracy. Electoral alliance preferences also shape democracy preferences. The ruling People’s Alliance voters are more supportive of illiberal democracy than the opposition blocs and parties.
民粹主义的兴起对各国的自由民主提出了挑战。这篇文章质疑民粹主义态度如何影响选民的民主偏好。利用2019年土耳其的代表性调查数据,我们首先测试了民粹主义态度对非自由民主态度的影响。结果显示民粹主义对支持非自由民主态度的负面影响。接下来,我们分析了民粹主义的哪个维度与不自由的民主偏好相关。我们的研究结果指出了摩尼教对民主偏好的负面影响。与预期相反,随着反精英主义和以人民为中心的态度的增加,对非自由民主的支持减少了。因此,对民粹主义不同维度的相对重视可能会形成其对民主影响的净平衡。选举联盟偏好也会影响民主偏好。执政的人民联盟选民比反对党更支持非自由民主。
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引用次数: 0
States or social networks? Popular attitudes amid health crises in the Middle East and North Africa 国家还是社交网络?中东和北非健康危机中的大众态度
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-08-26 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221109264
H. Albrecht, M. Loewe
The article draws on nationally representative telephone surveys in Tunisia, Egypt and Lebanon to unpack popular beliefs about who can best handle the social and economic consequences from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It therefore offers insights into state–society relations under stress and contributes to the debate on whether or not the state should play a key role in social protection. Findings reveal intriguing differences between countries, but also among social groups within societies. Communal identities and economic status do not appear to drive differences, with roughly half of the three countries’ populations sharing trust in their respective state authorities. In turn, the article challenges findings on the gender gap in people’s expectations about the provision of public goods amid crisis. On the country-level, Egyptians exhibit significantly greater trust in their state authorities than Tunisians and Lebanese, which substantiates arguments about the perceived advantage of autocratic governance to fight health crises.
这篇文章借鉴了突尼斯、埃及和黎巴嫩具有全国代表性的电话调查,揭示了人们对谁能最好地应对持续的新冠肺炎疫情带来的社会和经济后果的普遍看法。因此,它提供了对压力下的国家-社会关系的见解,并有助于就国家是否应该在社会保护中发挥关键作用展开辩论。研究结果揭示了国家之间以及社会内部社会群体之间的有趣差异。社区身份和经济地位似乎并没有导致差异,这三个国家大约有一半的人口对各自的国家当局有共同的信任。反过来,这篇文章对人们在危机中对提供公共产品的期望存在性别差距的调查结果提出了质疑。在国家层面上,埃及人对国家当局的信任度明显高于突尼斯人和黎巴嫩人,这证实了关于专制治理在应对健康危机方面的优势的论点。
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引用次数: 1
Female leaders and gendered laws: A long-term global perspective 女性领导人与性别法律:长期的全球视角
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221095439
H. Jung
Leaders do matter in formulating legal foundations that affect society’s path of development. If these laws are gender discriminatory, they hinder the development of groups adversely affected by the system. This study empirically examines the relationship between female leaders and gendered laws in 190 countries between 1970 and 2020. We find that female leaders have been positively associated with enhancing gender equality in the legal system over the past five decades. Their effects on gender equality are heterogeneous, with higher positive impacts when their terms of office are longer. The effects are noticeable both in regions of high economic and social development and high legal gender disparity. Moreover, the results remain robust under multiple specifications of the period. Our findings suggest that individual female leaders can play a crucial role in shaping legal equality between men and women.
领导人在制定影响社会发展道路的法律基础方面确实很重要。如果这些法律具有性别歧视性,就会阻碍受该制度不利影响的群体的发展。本研究实证研究了1970年至2020年间190个国家的女性领导人与性别法律之间的关系。我们发现,在过去五十年中,女性领导人与加强法律体系中的性别平等有着积极的联系。他们对性别平等的影响是多方面的,任期越长,积极影响越大。这种影响在经济和社会发展程度高、法律性别差距大的地区都是明显的。此外,在该时期的多种规格下,结果仍然稳健。我们的研究结果表明,女性领导人在塑造男女法律平等方面可以发挥关键作用。
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引用次数: 1
Political investorism: Conceptualising the political participation of shareholders and investors 政治投资者主义:概念化股东和投资者的政治参与
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-06-09 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221098863
Erin O’Brien, Justine Coneybeer, M. Boersma, A. Payne
This article establishes a new basis for examining the participation, mobilisation and impact of investors at a time when market-based activism for social change is rising in prominence. Existing terminology describing the expression of political values through investment decisions lacks conceptual clarity. Political participation by shareholders and other investors is variously described as shareholder activism or socially responsible investment, and currently conceptualised under the banner of political consumerism. However, this term fails to capture the unique political role and diverse actions of investors. We put forward ‘political investorism’ as a cohering term for investment-based political participation to remedy existing conceptual confusion, to distinguish between investors and consumers as political actors and to set an agenda for the future study of market-based activism. This article defines and develops the concept of political investorism, drawing upon illustrative cases from Australia to identify hallmarks, actors and tactics of this form of political participation.
本文为审视投资者的参与、动员和影响建立了一个新的基础,在这个以市场为基础的社会变革行动主义日益突出的时代。描述通过投资决策表达政治价值的现有术语缺乏概念上的明确性。股东和其他投资者的政治参与被不同地描述为股东行动主义或社会责任投资,目前在政治消费主义的旗帜下概念化。然而,这一术语未能捕捉到投资者独特的政治角色和多样化的行动。我们提出“政治投资者主义”作为一个以投资为基础的政治参与的连贯术语,以纠正现有的概念混淆,区分投资者和消费者作为政治行动者,并为未来的市场行动主义研究制定议程。本文定义并发展了政治投资者主义的概念,借鉴了澳大利亚的说明性案例,以确定这种政治参与形式的特征、参与者和策略。
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引用次数: 3
Competing perspectives on participatory arrangements: Explaining the attitudes of elected representatives 参与性安排的竞争观点:解释当选代表的态度
IF 2.2 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1177/01925121221092600
J. E. Klausen, Signy Irene Vabo, Marte Winsvold
In this article, we investigate elected representatives’ attitudes to citizen participation and the design of participatory arrangements. We distinguish between citizenship-oriented and governance-oriented attitudes. Whereas citizenship-oriented attitudes imply designing participatory arrangements to safeguard the democratic values of equality, transparency and inclusion, governance-oriented attitudes imply designing participatory arrangements to support elected representatives in their roles. Based on unique data from a web-based survey sent to all local councillors in Norway, we found that although Norwegian local councillors tend towards citizenship-oriented rather than governance-oriented attitudes to citizen participation, there is great variation between councillors in this respect. Analysing strategic and ideological explanations, we found that right-wing politicians tend to hold more governance-oriented attitudes than left-wing politicians do. Strategic considerations seem to have no effect on councillors in power in this regard.
在这篇文章中,我们调查了民选代表对公民参与的态度和参与安排的设计。我们区分以公民身份为导向和以治理为导向的态度。以公民身份为导向的态度意味着设计参与性安排,以维护平等、透明和包容的民主价值观,而以治理为导向的心态意味着设计支持民选代表发挥作用的参与性安排。根据向挪威所有地方议员发送的一项基于网络的调查的独特数据,我们发现,尽管挪威地方议员对公民参与的态度倾向于以公民身份为导向,而不是以治理为导向,但议员之间在这方面存在很大差异。通过分析战略和意识形态的解释,我们发现右翼政客比左翼政客更倾向于持有以治理为导向的态度。在这方面,战略考虑似乎对执政的议员没有影响。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
International Political Science Review
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