Research in Transportation Economics最新文献_第3页

A micromobility solution for household logistics? Determinants of shared bicycle trailers usage 家庭物流的微移动解决方案？共享自行车拖车使用的决定因素

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101720

J. Mariquivoi , S. Pirie , P. Lebeau , K. Mommens , W. Rei , M. Trépanier

Cycling is a solution to decarbonize urban transport of people and goods. Shared solutions, such as shared bike trailers, facilitate the expansion of micromobility offerings within urban areas. However, such solutions are currently understudied, hence underestimated for freight transport in cities. This paper explains how shared bike trailer networks can have success in different urban environments, and analyses how this type of shared micromobility vehicles can be a cycle logistics solution applied to household logistics. Based on operational data of two shared bike trailer services, we have developed a model based on a Quasi-Poisson model and a clustering method with socio-demographic and geographic data that explains the use of these services. The results show success and failures factors of trailers in two different cities on different continents. Socioeconomic factors and zoning characteristics, and accessibility to transport options play significant roles in determining the success of bike trailer loans, with residential and commercial zoning being particularly influential in Montreal, while service zoning negatively affects trailer use in Brussels. Successful trailers are mainly located in residential and mixed-use areas. Trailers are used for different purposes, such as house moving, grocery shopping and leisure activities involving freight transportation. This mean a possibility for bike trailer to be one solution in the choices of alternative mobility to avoid vans or cars.

骑自行车是一种使城市人员和货物运输脱碳的解决方案。共享解决方案，如共享自行车拖车，促进了城市地区微型交通产品的扩展。然而，这种解决办法目前尚未得到充分研究，因此低估了城市货运的作用。本文解释了共享自行车拖车网络如何在不同的城市环境中取得成功，并分析了这种类型的共享微型交通工具如何成为一种应用于家庭物流的循环物流解决方案。基于两种共享单车拖车服务的运营数据，我们开发了一个基于准泊松模型的模型，并使用社会人口和地理数据的聚类方法来解释这些服务的使用。结果显示了拖车在不同大洲两个不同城市的成功因素和失败因素。社会经济因素和分区特征以及交通选择的可达性在决定自行车拖车贷款的成功与否方面发挥着重要作用，其中住宅和商业分区在蒙特利尔尤其有影响力，而在布鲁塞尔，服务分区对拖车的使用产生了负面影响。成功的拖车主要位于住宅和混合用途区域。拖车用于不同的目的，例如搬家，杂货购物和涉及货运的休闲活动。这意味着自行车拖车有可能成为替代货车或汽车的一种解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Does the development of the digital economy amplify the energy rebound effect in the transportation industry? An empirical test of a theoretical paradox 数字经济的发展是否放大了交通运输行业的能源反弹效应？一个理论悖论的实证检验

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101725

Yumeng Mao , Xuemei Li , Na Yu

The rapid development of the digital economy (DE) is widely seen as a catalyst for green transformation in transportation. Yet, its net environmental impact is theoretically ambiguous, due to the potential for an energy rebound effect (RE)—where efficiency gains lower the cost of services and may stimulate additional demand. This study provides a robust empirical test of this theoretical proposition within China's provincial transportation sector (2005–2021). We employ a nested CES production function to quantify the sector-specific RE. Then, using a TEFE model with instrumental variables, we estimate the causal impact of DE development on the RE and disentangle three transmission mechanisms: the substitution effect, industrial upgrading, and resource allocation optimization. Our results confirm a significant RE and show that DE development exerts a net amplifying effect on it. This net effect stems from a dual role: while DE-enhanced resource allocation efficiency offers a mitigating force, it is outweighed by DE's stronger effects in stimulating demand (via substitution) and reshaping economic structure (via upgrading). We further document significant regional heterogeneity in this relationship. By moving from theoretical expectation to empirical verification and mechanistic unpacking, this study offers critical evidence and nuanced policy insights for designing digital strategies that genuinely advance sustainable transportation.

数字经济的快速发展被广泛认为是交通运输绿色转型的催化剂。然而，它的净环境影响在理论上是模糊的，因为能源反弹效应（RE）的潜力——效率的提高降低了服务成本，并可能刺激额外的需求。本研究在中国省级交通运输部门（2005-2021）对这一理论命题进行了强有力的实证检验。本文采用嵌套CES生产函数对行业可再生能源进行量化。然后，利用带工具变量的TEFE模型，估计了产业发展对可再生能源的因果影响，并梳理了替代效应、产业升级和资源配置优化三种传导机制。我们的研究结果证实了显著的RE，并表明DE的发展对其产生了净放大效应。这种净效应源于双重作用：虽然DE提高资源配置效率提供了一种缓解力量，但DE在刺激需求（通过替代）和重塑经济结构（通过升级）方面的更强作用超过了它。我们进一步证明了这一关系存在显著的区域异质性。通过从理论期望转向实证验证和机制解析，本研究为设计真正促进可持续交通的数字战略提供了关键证据和细致入微的政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Exploratory study of long-distance carpooling supply and public financial incentives: The case of France 长途拼车供给与公共财政激励的探索性研究：以法国为例

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101734

Florent Laroche, Kseniya Schemeleva

To meet its

{CO}_{2}

reduction targets in the mobility sector, the French government aims to support carpooling as a means to achieve more efficient car use. Recognizing the gap between these targets and current levels, the government introduced a financial incentive of 100€ per new driver in 2023. This paper seeks to provide an exploratory study of long-distance carpooling supply in France, with particular attention to this public policy, while accounting for a broad set of intermodal and intramodal factors. The study relies on an empirical analysis of original data covering the period 2020–2024. The primary findings from the Seasonal-Trend decomposition analysis confirm the impact of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 and the subsequent rebound in 2022, with a similar trend continuing into 2023. To explore this further, a Multiple Linear Regression model incorporating a large panel of variables was developed. Results indicate that new driver uptake correlates more with other influencing factors than with the subsidy itself. They highlight a strong complementarity with train services, as new drivers are associated with train transport shortages and seasonality, particularly during peak demand periods.

为了实现其在交通领域的二氧化碳减排目标，法国政府旨在支持拼车，以实现更有效的汽车使用。认识到这些目标与当前水平之间的差距，政府在2023年推出了每名新司机100欧元的财政激励措施。本文旨在对法国长途拼车供应进行探索性研究，特别关注这一公共政策，同时考虑到一系列广泛的多式联运和多式联运因素。该研究基于对2020-2024年期间原始数据的实证分析。季节性趋势分解分析的主要结果证实了COVID-19限制措施在2020年的影响以及随后在2022年的反弹，类似的趋势将持续到2023年。为了进一步探讨这一点，我们开发了一个包含大量变量的多元线性回归模型。结果表明，与补贴本身相比，新司机的吸收与其他影响因素的相关性更大。它们强调了与火车服务的强大互补性，因为新司机与火车运输短缺和季节性有关，特别是在需求高峰期间。

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引用次数: 0

Drivers of low-carbon economic efficiency in China's transportation sector: Is the digital economy a key determinant? 中国交通运输行业低碳经济效率的驱动因素：数字经济是关键决定因素吗？

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101739

Lianxiao Yao , Minghui Jin

This study investigates the influence of digital economy expansion on low-carbon economic efficiency in the transportation industry across Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022. The analysis relies on a spatial Durbin econometric model. The results reveal a U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and low-carbon economic efficiency. During the sample period, most provinces lie on the left side of the U-shaped curve, where the marginal negative effect of further digitalization diminishes as digital development deepens, while some observations have already moved to the right side of the curve. The U-shaped effect also has significant spatial spillovers. To unpack the mechanisms, this study considers both government and market channels. On the government side, the digital economy strengthens environmental regulation, and tighter regulation significantly enhances the transportation sector's low-carbon economic efficiency. On the market side, as the digital economy evolves from the installation to the deployment stage, it exerts a U-shaped influence on capital productivity. Higher capital productivity improves local low-carbon economic efficiency; however, through a siphon effect, it suppresses low-carbon economic efficiency in neighboring regions. These findings provide empirical support for guiding the standardized development of the digital economy and improving low-carbon economic efficiency in the transportation sector.

本研究考察了2011 - 2022年中国各省数字经济扩张对交通运输行业低碳经济效率的影响。该分析依赖于一个空间德宾计量经济模型。结果表明，数字经济与低碳经济效率之间呈u型关系。在样本期内，大多数省份位于u型曲线的左侧，随着数字化发展的加深，进一步数字化的边际负面影响逐渐减弱，而一些观测值已经移动到曲线的右侧。u型效应还具有显著的空间溢出效应。本文从政府渠道和市场渠道两方面分析了其影响机制。在政府方面，数字经济加强了环境监管，更严格的监管显著提高了交通运输部门的低碳经济效率。在市场方面，随着数字经济从安装阶段向部署阶段演进，其对资本生产率的影响呈u型。资本生产率的提高提高了当地的低碳经济效率；然而，通过虹吸效应，它抑制了邻近地区的低碳经济效率。研究结果为引导数字经济规范发展、提高交通运输行业低碳经济效率提供了实证支持。

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引用次数: 0

Where are we headed with research, training and practice in land passenger transport governance in Africa? 我们在非洲陆路客运治理方面的研究、培训和实践将走向何方？

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101673

Lydia Akoth Midimo , Marianne Vanderschuren , Gladys Moraa Nyachieo

This paper, based on a scoping review of selected studies, examines the status of land passenger transport governance research, training and practice in Africa. The findings of this paper are outlined as follows. Transport governance research in Africa is in a nascent stage with respect to theoretical, methodological and empirical advancements. While relevant theories and methods are utilised, the contextualised reformulation of these theories and methods, based on the African reality is, however, not evident. A sustained effort by prolific scholars who pursue an engaging research agenda or expand on initial transport governance research is not also evident. Hence, there is a tendency for one-off empirical studies and not a stream of related studies by the same researcher on a set of topics. An exploratory analysis of courses in 26 African universities shows that there was no course dedicated solely to transport governance as a standalone course. Several practices of transport governance like public participation, performance monitoring and accountability exist but the extent to which they are adhered to, need to be assessed.

本文在对选定研究进行范围审查的基础上，审查了非洲陆地客运治理研究、培训和实践的现状。本文的研究结果概述如下。在理论、方法和经验方面，非洲的运输管理研究处于初级阶段。虽然利用了相关的理论和方法，但根据非洲实际情况对这些理论和方法进行背景化的重新制定并不明显。追求引人入胜的研究议程或扩展初始交通治理研究的多产学者的持续努力也不明显。因此，有一种倾向是一次性的实证研究，而不是同一研究人员对一系列主题的一系列相关研究。对26所非洲大学的课程进行的探索性分析表明，没有专门将运输管理作为一门独立的课程。目前存在一些交通管理的做法，如公众参与、绩效监测和问责制，但需要评估这些做法得到遵守的程度。

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引用次数: 0

Ride-hailing fares and demand interactions: insights from market analysis over space and time 网约车费用和需求互动：来自时空市场分析的见解

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101738

Priyanka Paithankar , Kara M. Kockelman , Krishna Murthy Gurumurthy

Ride-hailing providers like Uber, Lyft, and Didi compete daily in global markets, yet existing research has largely overlooked the dynamic interdependence between fares and demand across time, location, and service providers. This study addresses that gap by jointly estimating the simultaneous relationship between demand and per-mile fares for Uber and Lyft in New York City (NYC). A system of simultaneous equations is solved using instrumental variables that account for cross-equation correlation and endogeneity. The analysis leverages operator-specific fare data and served-trip demand every 10 min over a 15-day period across NYC's 260 taxi zones. The results reveal strong asymmetries in competitive behavior. A $1 per mile fare increase cuts Uber demand by 5.8% but Lyft demand by 64%, implying Uber is the default platform while Lyft is a highly price sensitive substitute. And wait time matters more than price: Adding 1.5-min delay to vehicles is predicted to trigger a 37% demand reduction. Supply-side responses also differ. A one standard deviation demand increase raises Uber fares by 9% versus 2.2% for Lyft, indicating more aggressive surge pricing by the dominant platform. Rainy days are associated with lower demand, while higher temperatures and wind speeds come with greater ride-hailing demand.

像优步、Lyft和滴滴这样的叫车服务提供商每天都在全球市场上竞争，但现有的研究在很大程度上忽视了票价和需求在时间、地点和服务提供商之间的动态相互依存关系。这项研究通过联合估计纽约市优步和Lyft的需求和每英里票价之间的同时关系来解决这一差距。一个联立方程组是用工具变量求解的，这些工具变量解释了方程间的相关性和内生性。该分析利用了运营商特定的票价数据和纽约市260个出租车区域15天内每10分钟的服务行程需求。研究结果揭示了竞争行为的强烈不对称性。每英里票价上涨1美元，优步的需求将减少5.8%，而Lyft的需求将减少64%，这意味着优步是默认平台，而Lyft是对价格高度敏感的替代品。等待时间比价格更重要：预计车辆延迟1.5分钟将导致需求减少37%。供给方面的反应也各不相同。一个标准差的需求增长使优步的票价上涨了9%，而Lyft的票价上涨了2.2%，这表明优步这个占主导地位的平台采取了更激进的高峰期定价。下雨天需求较低，而高温和风速则会带来更大的叫车需求。

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引用次数: 0

Notes from a small island: The continuing evolution of the local bus industry in the British Isles 来自小岛的笔记：不列颠群岛当地巴士工业的持续发展

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101737

John Preston

This paper reviews recent developments in the local bus industry in the United Kingdom and three crown dependencies (Guernsey, Isle of Man and Jersey). The industry is well-known for the deregulation implemented in the mid-1980s, but this only affected Great Britain outside London. In London, an alternative regime of comprehensive tendering was developed, whilst in Northern Ireland the industry remained under public ownership and control. Recent trends in these different jurisdictions will be reviewed with particular reference to Bus Back Better, the national bus strategy for England, published in 2021. This has led to some extensions of the concept of franchising, most notably in Greater Manchester, and to the development of enhanced partnerships. In addition to this general high-level review, two case studies are discussed, based on recent student projects at the University of Southampton. The first compares the bus market and industry in Guernsey and Jersey (both competitively tendered), the Isle of Man (publicly owned and controlled) and the Isle of Wight (deregulated). The second examines the bus market and industry in the neighbouring urban regions of Bournemouth and Southampton, where in both cases the successor to the former municipally owned incumbent has recently exited the market. Broad assessments are made of the efficacy of the different organisational structures considered. Conclusions are drawn with respect to likely future developments in the regulatory cycle, the relevance of theories of public value and whether the co-production of services could form a fourth way for the bus industry.

本文回顾了英国和三个皇家属地（根西岛，马恩岛和泽西岛）当地巴士行业的最新发展。该行业因20世纪80年代中期实施的放松管制而闻名，但这只影响了伦敦以外的英国。在伦敦，开发了一种替代的全面招标制度，而在北爱尔兰，该行业仍处于公有制和控制之下。这些不同司法管辖区的最新趋势将特别参考2021年发布的英国国家公共汽车战略“更好的公共汽车”进行审查。这导致了特许经营概念的一些扩展，尤其是在大曼彻斯特，以及加强伙伴关系的发展。除了这个一般的高层次的回顾，讨论了两个案例研究，基于最近在南安普顿大学的学生项目。第一份比较了根西岛和泽西岛（都是竞争性招标）、马恩岛（公有和控制）和怀特岛（解除管制）的公共汽车市场和工业。第二份调查了邻近城市地区伯恩茅斯和南安普敦的公共汽车市场和工业，在这两种情况下，前市政拥有的现任者的继任者最近退出了市场。对所考虑的不同组织结构的效力进行了广泛的评估。结论是关于监管周期可能的未来发展，公共价值理论的相关性以及服务的共同生产是否可以形成公共汽车行业的第四种方式。

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引用次数: 0

A projection-based regret theory method for evaluating service quality of public transportation systems under interval type-2 fuzzy environment during COVID-19 pandemic 基于投影后悔理论的区间2型模糊环境下公共交通系统服务质量评价方法

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101716

Naijie Chai , Ziyu Chen , Wenliang Zhou

Public transportation plays a vital role in urban mobility, particularly in large and densely populated cities. As a result, evaluating service quality of public transportation systems has become a strategic decision-making concern for both private and public sections. In particular, facing with the expeditiously spreading of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it led to an unprecedented decline in public transit demand and revenue, while also exacerbating traffic congestion during peak hours. This study aims to improve the passengers' satisfaction problem of public transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to assess their satisfaction degrees by conducting passengers’ satisfaction surveys. A novel projection-based regret theory approach based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) is introduced to solve multi-criteria decision-making problems related to service evaluation. First, a projection model of IT2FSs is formulated, incorporating both distance and angle information. Second, by integrating this projection model with regret theory, new utility and regret-rejoice functions are constructed to enhance decision-making effectiveness. Comparative analyses with existing methods demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach in capturing the psychological factors of decision makers. The model yields more reliable and realistic outcomes, offering valuable insights into future enhancements in public transportation service quality. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis verifies the robustness of the method, as the ranking results remain stable when varying parameter settings. As a conclusion, the service quality of public transportation systems from the best to the worst in sequence are as follows: taxi, e-hailing, bus, van and metro, and this can assist policymakers and transit agencies in making more informed and efficient resource allocation decisions during and after the pandemic.

公共交通在城市交通中起着至关重要的作用，特别是在人口密集的大城市。因此，评估公共交通系统的服务质量已成为私营部门和公共部门的战略决策问题。特别是面对2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的快速传播，导致公共交通需求和收入前所未有的下降，同时也加剧了高峰时段的交通拥堵。本研究旨在改善COVID-19大流行期间乘客对公共交通的满意度问题，并通过乘客满意度调查来评估他们的满意度。针对服务评价中的多准则决策问题，提出了一种基于区间2型模糊集（IT2FSs）的基于投影的后悔理论方法。首先，建立了包含距离和角度信息的it2fs投影模型；其次，将该投影模型与后悔理论相结合，构建新的效用函数和后悔-欣喜函数，提高决策有效性。与现有方法的比较分析表明，所提出的方法在捕捉决策者的心理因素方面具有优越性。该模型产生了更可靠和现实的结果，为未来提高公共交通服务质量提供了宝贵的见解。此外，灵敏度分析验证了该方法的鲁棒性，在不同的参数设置下，排序结果保持稳定。综上所述，公共交通系统的服务质量从好到坏依次为：出租车、网约车、公共汽车、面包车和地铁，这可以帮助政策制定者和交通机构在大流行期间和之后做出更明智和有效的资源分配决策。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of environmental regulation and logistics industry agglomeration on road green logistics efficiency: Evidence from China 环境规制和物流业集聚对道路绿色物流效率的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101718

Hua Yao , Haijun Mao , Shunfeng Zhang , Zhiyuan Wang , Dongfang Wang , Lei Yang

Decoupling road logistics from road freight activity is essential for controlling CO₂ emissions, and environmental regulation (ER) can serve as a key mechanism to achieve this goal. At the same time, logistics industry agglomeration (LIA), when reasonably managed, can enhance logistics efficiency. However, tensions arise because the rapid expansion of the logistics sector exerts substantial environmental pressure, even though the development of green logistics may partially offset its carbon impacts. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the interrelated effects of ER, LIA, and road green logistics efficiency (RGLE) in order to improve the operational sustainability of road logistics systems. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2008–2023, we explore the effect of ER on RGLE and examine how this relationship varies with the inclusion of LIA using moderating and threshold effect models. Empirical results show that RGLE initially declines before increasing, with significant spatial variability. Interestingly, econometric findings indicate that ER does not directly improve RGLE but effectively enhances it through its interaction with LIA. Furthermore, the impact of ER on RGLE exhibits a “U-shaped” relationship under different LIA values. Consequently, this study concludes with recommendations to improve RGLE through optimizing LIA, and strengthening regional linkage.

将公路物流与公路货运活动脱钩对于控制二氧化碳排放至关重要，环境监管（ER）可以作为实现这一目标的关键机制。同时，物流业集聚如果管理合理，可以提高物流效率。然而，尽管绿色物流的发展可能会部分抵消其碳影响，但由于物流业的快速扩张带来了巨大的环境压力，因此出现了紧张局势。在此背景下，本研究探讨了ER、LIA和道路绿色物流效率（RGLE）的相互影响，以提高道路物流系统的运行可持续性。利用2008-2023年中国30个省份的面板数据，我们探讨了ER对RGLE的影响，并使用调节效应和阈值效应模型研究了这种关系如何随着LIA的加入而变化。实证结果表明，RGLE先下降后上升，具有显著的空间变异性。有趣的是，计量经济学研究结果表明，ER并没有直接改善RGLE，而是通过与LIA的相互作用有效地提高了RGLE。此外，在不同LIA值下，ER对RGLE的影响呈“u”型关系。因此，本研究提出了通过优化LIA和加强区域联系来提高RGLE的建议。

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引用次数: 0

Task-level causal effects of maintenance staffing shortages on aircraft-on-ground (AOG) and reliability 维修人员短缺对飞机在地（AOG）和可靠性的任务级因果影响

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101701

Arthur C. Dela Peña, Meredith I. Rutao

Staffing shortages in aircraft maintenance are a critical driver of operational cost and reliability, yet most studies focus on aggregated effects, obscuring task-level dynamics. This study provides quasi-experimental evidence linking staffing intensity (SI) and skill mix (SM) to aircraft-on-ground (AOG) exposure, deferrals, and repair reliability in a multi-base Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) setting. Using 24–36 months of operational data across five stations, we apply a staggered difference-in-differences event-study design, Cox proportional hazards modeling, and mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of staffing fluctuations. Shortage episodes are identified using station-specific SI thresholds, with outcomes measured in AOG minutes, deferrals per 100 departures, and time-to-closure. Results show shortages increase AOG exposure by 0.10 per 1000 flight hours and deferrals by 0.07 per 100 departures. Higher SI accelerates closure (Hazard Ratio HR ≈ 1.11) and reduces repeat-defect risk (OR 0.88–0.91), with two-thirds of the effect mediated through variance in turnaround time (TAT) and deferral reduction. Effects are concentrated at night, during rainfall, at smaller bases, and in Air Transport Association (ATA) 21/24 systems. Policy simulations show skill-mix upgrades yield the lowest cost per AOG-minute avoided, offering actionable strategies for risk-based staffing and predictive rostering.

飞机维修人员短缺是运营成本和可靠性的关键驱动因素，但大多数研究都集中在总体效应上，模糊了任务级动态。本研究提供了准实验证据，将人员配备强度（SI）和技能组合（SM）与多基地维护、维修和大修（MRO）设置中的飞机在地（AOG）暴露、延误和维修可靠性联系起来。利用5个站点24-36个月的运营数据，我们采用交错差中差事件研究设计、Cox比例风险建模和中介分析来估计人员波动的直接和间接影响。使用车站特定的SI阈值来确定短缺事件，其结果以AOG分钟、每100次发车延误时间和关闭时间来衡量。结果显示，航班短缺每1000个飞行小时增加0.1个AOG暴露，每100次起飞增加0.07个延误。较高的SI加速闭合（风险比HR≈1.11）并降低重复缺陷风险（OR 0.88-0.91），其中三分之二的效果是通过周转时间（TAT）和延迟减少的差异介导的。影响集中在夜间、降雨期间、较小的基地和航空运输协会（ATA） 21/24系统。政策模拟显示，技能组合升级可避免的每aog分钟成本最低，为基于风险的人员配置和预测调度提供了可操作的策略。

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引用次数: 0