Research in Transportation Economics最新文献_第4页

Understanding the dynamics of vessel pricing and investor behavior in dry bulk shipping 了解干散货航运中船舶定价和投资者行为的动态

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101699

Michael Tsatsaronis , Hercules Haralambides , Theodore Syriopoulos , Eftymios Roumpis

Ships are heavily traded assets and their prices fluctuate wildly in paralell with the underlying freight rates. This confronts investors with sizable market risks but also, for some, with attractive profit opportunities from sale and purchase (S&P) transactions. The paper explores the complex pricing dynamics in dry bulk shipping. We employ modern machine learning techniques, such as k-means clustering, to explore a range of investment behaviors, with the hope of offering investors, asset players and new investor archetypes novel insights on vessel pricing and investment decisions. Through cluster analysis, we classify investors in the S&P market, unveiling investor profiles and behaviours. Chinese shipping investors, for instance, focus on achieving vertical and horizontal integration within the global supply chains, whereas, Greek shipowners are reputed for investing in ship acquisitions even amid economic downturns, demonstrating an agile and adaptive business strategy (McKinsey & Company, 2024). Our results carry potent implications regarding tailored market strategies, risk management, policy formulation, market transparency, investor education, and technology adoption.

船舶是交易量很大的资产，其价格与基础运费同步大幅波动。这让投资者面临相当大的市场风险，但对一些人来说，出售和购买（标普）交易也有诱人的盈利机会。本文探讨了干散货航运的复杂定价动态。我们采用k-means聚类等现代机器学习技术来探索一系列投资行为，希望为投资者、资产参与者和新投资者原型提供有关船舶定价和投资决策的新见解。通过聚类分析，我们对标普市场的投资者进行了分类，揭示了投资者的特征和行为。例如，中国航运投资者专注于在全球供应链中实现纵向和横向整合，而希腊船东即使在经济低迷时期也以投资船舶收购而闻名，展示了灵活和适应性的商业战略（麦肯锡公司，2024）。我们的研究结果对量身定制的市场策略、风险管理、政策制定、市场透明度、投资者教育和技术采用具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Infrastructure, growth, and regional disparities: Looking at efficiency, redistribution, and equity goals in road investments 基础设施、增长和地区差距：考察道路投资的效率、再分配和公平目标

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101668

Victor Medeiros, Rafael S.M. Ribeiro, Pedro V.M. Amaral

This paper evaluates the role of transportation infrastructure policies in raising productivity by considering heterogeneities in efficiency, redistribution, and equity. Using a three-step instrumental variable identification strategy, we estimate the causal impacts of road investments on GDP per capita in Brazilian municipalities during the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), implemented from 2007 to 2018. Our findings show that highway investments significantly increased productivity, particularly in less-developed and poorly connected municipalities. Conversely, returns were lower or insignificant in highly developed and efficient areas, likely due to infrastructure saturation and implementation inefficiencies. These results suggest that road impacts are not homogeneous and that spatial targeting matters. Building on these heterogeneities, we calculate regionalized return rates and identify “focal points” where road investments can achieve both economic efficiency and inclusion objectives. We find that Brazil could have achieved higher overall returns by prioritizing redistributive and spatially equitable investments rather than concentrating resources in already-developed regions. The paper contributes to the literature by jointly analyzing the efficiency, redistribution, and equity dimensions of infrastructure investment and providing policy-relevant evidence on how to improve the design and targeting of national transport programs.

本文通过考虑效率、再分配和公平方面的异质性，评估了交通基础设施政策在提高生产率方面的作用。采用三步工具变量识别策略，我们估算了2007年至2018年实施增长加速计划（PAC）期间，道路投资对巴西各城市人均GDP的因果影响。我们的研究结果表明，高速公路投资显著提高了生产率，尤其是在欠发达和交通不发达的城市。相反，在高度发达和高效的地区，回报较低或微不足道，可能是由于基础设施饱和和执行效率低下。这些结果表明，道路影响不是均匀的，空间定位很重要。基于这些异质性，我们计算了区域回报率，并确定了道路投资既能实现经济效率又能实现包容性目标的“焦点”。我们发现，巴西本可以通过优先考虑再分配和空间公平的投资，而不是将资源集中在已经发达的地区，实现更高的总体回报。本文通过共同分析基础设施投资的效率、再分配和公平维度，并就如何改进国家交通规划的设计和目标提供与政策相关的证据，为文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Public-private partnership for railways in the GCC: market evaluation for corporate investors and project proponents 海湾合作委员会铁路的公私伙伴关系：对公司投资者和项目支持者的市场评估

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101678

Fawad Rajput , John Preston

Public-private partnership (PPP) is expanding in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. In all GCC countries, there are several transport initiatives, predominantly, pertaining to railways, with substantial projected investments. This paper analyses the PPP sector concerning railway and transport initiatives in the GCC region. It presents findings of an online survey conducted in 2022, among industry leaders and subject matter experts in the GCC countries. The survey aimed to assess current PPP practices in GCC countries, examine its development, and evaluate its alignment with established success criteria. The results show an upward trend in the endorsement and promotion of PPP. The findings indicate that industry specialists in the GCC understand elements essential for the success of PPP ventures. The observed variation and breadth of responses among survey participants substantiate the market's relatively nascent and challenging condition. The survey results also show that the GCC countries often score lower than the other OECD high-income countries and need improvements in almost all PPP delivery phases and thematic areas. It is therefore argued that PPP in the GCC nations is a unique and novel endeavour. The findings provide insights into critical reforms to enhance its appeal to international private investors.

公私伙伴关系（PPP）在海湾合作委员会（GCC）成员国不断扩大。在所有海湾合作委员会国家中，有几项运输倡议，主要与铁路有关，预计有大量投资。本文分析了海湾合作委员会地区有关铁路和运输计划的PPP部门。它介绍了2022年在海湾合作委员会国家的行业领导者和主题专家中进行的一项在线调查的结果。该调查旨在评估海湾合作委员会国家目前的PPP实践，检查其发展情况，并评估其与既定成功标准的一致性。结果显示，对PPP的认可和推广呈上升趋势。调查结果表明，海湾合作委员会的行业专家了解PPP企业成功的关键因素。在调查参与者中观察到的变化和反应的广度证实了市场的相对新生和具有挑战性的条件。调查结果还显示，海湾合作委员会国家的得分往往低于其他经合组织高收入国家，几乎在所有PPP交付阶段和专题领域都需要改进。因此，有人认为海湾合作委员会国家的PPP是一项独特而新颖的努力。调查结果为加强对国际私人投资者的吸引力的关键改革提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Implementing residential parking policy: “It is like foisting a new religion upon them” 实施住宅停车政策：“这就像把一种新的宗教强加给他们”

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101703

Göran Smith , Anne Yu Faxér

The availability and price of residential parking are key determinants of car ownership and use. Residential parking reform can therefore significantly affect how people travel and thus contribute to sustainability transitions in urban mobility. Residential parking reforms have, however, proven difficult to implement. To address this problem, this paper analyzes the institutional conditions that influence residential parking policy formation and implementation. It does so through an exploratory case study of an ongoing, city-wide reform in Sweden. The analysis, which builds on interviews, observations, workshops, and a questionnaire, identifies multiple conditions at the inter-organizational, organizational, and intra-organizational levels that the people involved perceive as influencing the policy process. In terms of academic contributions, the findings deepen understanding of the challenges associated with implementing residential parking policies and show that regime lock-in within land-use planning, housing, and mobility can be a greater impediment to residential parking reform than resident opposition in the early phases of the policy process. The paper provides three recommendations for public officials overseeing residential parking reform: framing their task as organizational change and drawing inspiration from related frameworks; building legitimacy through incremental implementation; and monitoring and reporting reform-related outcomes through a public health benefits lens.

住宅停车场的可用性和价格是汽车拥有和使用的关键决定因素。因此，住宅停车改革可以显著影响人们的出行方式，从而促进城市交通的可持续性转型。然而，住宅停车改革已被证明难以实施。为了解决这一问题，本文分析了影响住宅停车政策形成和实施的制度条件。它通过对瑞典正在进行的全市改革的探索性案例研究来做到这一点。该分析建立在访谈、观察、研讨会和问卷调查的基础上，确定了组织间、组织和组织内各级的多种情况，相关人员认为这些情况会影响政策过程。就学术贡献而言，研究结果加深了对实施住宅停车政策相关挑战的理解，并表明在政策制定的早期阶段，土地使用规划、住房和流动性中的制度锁定可能比居民反对更大地阻碍住宅停车改革。本文为监督住宅停车改革的政府官员提供了三点建议：将他们的任务定义为组织变革，并从相关框架中汲取灵感；通过逐步实施建立合法性；并从公共卫生利益的角度监测和报告与改革有关的成果。

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引用次数: 0

The community impacts of ecommerce warehousing growth: A case study of Berks County, Pennsylvania, USA 电子商务仓储增长对社区的影响：以美国宾夕法尼亚州Berks县为例

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101722

Alison Conway , Moira Conway

Due to a variety of location factors that make it attractive for logistics development, Berks County, Pennsylvania has recently emerged as a new hotspot for ecommerce distribution. With development proposals come job opportunities and potential tax revenue benefits, but these projects also bring new community challenges. Through systematic review of local news articles, the first phase of our project sought to understand the stakeholders and regulatory mechanisms involved in warehouse development decisions, and to identify the anticipated impacts of ecommerce development projects that are of concern to rural communities. In Phase 2, using data from several publicly available sources, we investigate tax revenue, job, and traffic safety impacts from recent warehousing growth in the county. Result reveal unique challenges that warehouse developments can face in rural communities, and takeaways for planning practice in similar communities.

由于各种地理位置因素使其对物流发展具有吸引力，宾夕法尼亚州伯克斯县最近成为电子商务分销的新热点。开发方案带来了就业机会和潜在的税收效益，但这些项目也给社区带来了新的挑战。通过对当地新闻文章的系统回顾，我们项目的第一阶段试图了解仓库发展决策中涉及的利益相关者和监管机制，并确定与农村社区有关的电子商务发展项目的预期影响。在第二阶段，我们使用来自多个公开来源的数据，调查了该县最近仓储增长对税收、就业和交通安全的影响。结果揭示了仓库开发在农村社区可能面临的独特挑战，并为类似社区的规划实践提供了借鉴。

引用次数: 0

Who benefits from autonomous vehicles? Distributional and general-equilibrium effects in a monocentric city with heterogeneous households and tax interactions 谁会从自动驾驶汽车中受益？异质性家庭与税收相互作用的单中心城市分配与一般均衡效应

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101702

Diego Candia

I study the welfare and distributional effects of autonomous vehicles (AVs) using a monocentric city model with heterogeneous households and endogenous labor supply. The formulation captures the fact that AVs allow performing activities while commuting. Numerical results show that AVs increase aggregate welfare, but low-skilled households can experience losses if they are initially located further from the CBD and only high-skilled households can afford an AV. This is due to high-skilled households moving to the periphery, causing an increase in housing prices for the low-skilled, among others general-equilibrium effects. Using the revenues from a distance-based road pricing to finance a labor tax cut for the low-skilled results in gains for both skill types, but reaches only 15% of the welfare increase obtained from using the revenues to finance a general labor tax cut. This latter recycling scheme almost doubles the welfare gains from the introduction of AVs, but amplifies its uneven effects.

本文采用具有异质性家庭和内生劳动力供给的单中心城市模型研究自动驾驶汽车的福利和分配效应。这个公式抓住了这样一个事实，即自动驾驶汽车允许在通勤时进行活动。数值结果表明，自动驾驶汽车增加了总福利，但如果低技能家庭最初位于远离CBD的地方，只有高技能家庭才能负担得起自动驾驶汽车，那么他们可能会遭受损失。这是由于高技能家庭向外围转移，导致低技能家庭的房价上涨，以及其他一般均衡效应。使用基于距离的道路收费的收入来资助低技能工人的劳动税减免，这两种技能类型都有收益，但只达到了使用收入来资助一般劳动税减免所获得的福利增加的15%。后一种回收方案几乎使引入自动驾驶汽车带来的福利收益翻了一番，但却放大了其不平衡效应。

引用次数: 0

Ride-hailing demand elasticities and value of travel time savings: An empirical analysis with massive data including sociodemographic characteristics 网约车需求弹性与出行时间节约价值：基于社会人口特征等海量数据的实证分析

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101717

Felipe González , Louis de Grange , Raúl Pezoa , Rodrigo Troncoso

Understanding how users respond to ride-hailing prices and travel time is essential for designing effective and equitable transport policies. However, most existing evidence comes from high-income countries and stated-preference data, with limited attention to user heterogeneity and spatial contexts. This study contributes to filling this gap by estimating price elasticities and value of travel time savings (VOTTS) for ride-hailing trips in Greater Santiago, Chile, using aggregated data from over three million revealed-preference trip records provided by Uber, organized by origin-destination zone pairs. We estimate log-linear demand models that incorporate detailed sociodemographic and spatial indicators to capture variation across urban and rural zones, times of day, and user characteristics. Results show that price elasticities are higher in absolute terms in rural areas and during off-peak periods, while VOTTS is greater in urban zones and at peak hours. Additionally, ride-hailing demand increases in areas with Metro access and higher immigrant populations, but decreases in zones with higher poverty levels and larger elderly populations. These findings provide valuable insights for tailoring pricing, subsidies, and infrastructure investments to local needs and for enhancing the integration between ride-hailing and public transport in diverse urban settings.

了解用户对网约车价格和出行时间的反应，对于设计有效、公平的交通政策至关重要。然而，大多数现有证据来自高收入国家和声明偏好数据，对用户异质性和空间背景的关注有限。本研究利用优步提供的300多万次显示偏好旅行记录的汇总数据，按出发地-目的地区域对组织，通过估算智利大圣地亚哥地区网约车旅行的价格弹性和旅行时间节省价值（VOTTS），有助于填补这一空白。我们估计了包含详细的社会人口和空间指标的对数线性需求模型，以捕捉城乡地区、一天中的时间和用户特征之间的变化。结果表明，农村地区和非高峰时段的绝对价格弹性更高，而城市地区和高峰时段的VOTTS更大。此外，在有地铁通道和移民人口较多的地区，网约车需求会增加，但在贫困程度较高和老年人口较多的地区，网约车需求会减少。这些发现为根据当地需求定制定价、补贴和基础设施投资，以及在不同城市环境中加强网约车与公共交通的整合提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Productivity-based assessment of Indian metro systems: A two-stage total factor productivity approach 基于生产率的印度地铁系统评估：两阶段全要素生产率方法

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101697

Gopal R. Patil, Vinayak Gaur

This study evaluates the productivity of nine metro systems in India that commenced operations before 2019, utilising a two-stage Total Factor Productivity (TFP) framework. The benchmarking framework integrates data from the metro's annual reports for the fiscal years 2015–2016 to 2022–2023. In the first stage, Gross Variable Input Productivity (GVIP) is computed using a multilateral index number method. The inputs are labour and soft input costs, and the outputs are passenger kilometres and other revenue. Based on GVIP, the Hyderabad Metro consistently ranks the most productive, securing the top position in four out of five years. Productivity is influenced by external factors such as network size, gross domestic product (GDP), and socioeconomic conditions; therefore, we computed Net Variable Input Productivity (NVIP) using regression analysis to retrieve the residual. The regression results indicate that track length and GDP have a significant impact on metro productivity. According to NVIP, there were some changes in the position of other metros, but Hyderabad Metro retained its top spot. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the benchmarking framework. The study's policy recommendations emphasise the importance of expanding network capacity, enhancing multimodal integration, and increasing non-fare revenue streams.

本研究利用两阶段全要素生产率（TFP）框架，评估了2019年之前开始运营的印度9个地铁系统的生产率。基准框架整合了2015-2016财年至2022-2023财年地铁年度报告的数据。在第一阶段，使用多边指数法计算总可变投入生产率（GVIP）。投入是劳动力和软投入成本，产出是乘客公里数和其他收入。根据GVIP，海得拉巴地铁一直是生产力最高的，在五年中有四年稳居榜首。生产率受网络规模、国内生产总值（GDP）和社会经济条件等外部因素的影响；因此，我们使用回归分析计算净可变投入生产率（NVIP）来检索残差。回归结果表明，轨道长度和GDP对地铁生产率有显著影响。根据NVIP的数据，其他地铁的排名也有所变化，但海得拉巴地铁保持了第一的位置。敏感性分析证实了基准框架的鲁棒性。该研究的政策建议强调了扩大网络容量、加强多模式整合和增加非票价收入流的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring expressway accessibility of enterprise based on an improved NN-2SFCA method in rural area 基于改进NN-2SFCA方法的农村地区企业高速公路可达性测度

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101679

Rui Cao , Wu Li , Fang Chen , Xiaoqing Zong , Xiaofeng Ji

Equitable expressway accessibility is critical for revitalizing rural industries, yet traditional accessibility metrics often fail to capture the unique logistical needs of enterprises in complex rural environments. The widely used Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (2SFCA) method is limited in rural applications due to its reliance on fixed catchment areas and population-based demand weighting, which misrepresent actual travel conditions and overlook industry-specific requirements. To address these gaps, we propose an improved Nearest-Neighbor 2SFCA (NN-2SFCA) method that incorporates three key innovations: (1) network-based travel time derived from web mapping API instead of Euclidean distance, (2) a data-driven dynamic nearest-neighbor search to adaptively determine service ranges, and (3) demand weighting based on enterprise registered capital to reflect industrial scale rather than population distribution. Applied in Yunnan Province, China, results reveal severe inequality: 73 % of expressway services concentrate in only 10 % of townships, showing a clear core-periphery pattern. Significant sectoral disparities exist, with tourism having the poorest accessibility. The study offers actionable insights for optimizing resource allocation under the Rural Revitalization Strategy and presents a transferable framework for accessibility research in similar contexts.

公平的高速公路可达性对于振兴农村产业至关重要，但传统的可达性指标往往无法捕捉复杂农村环境中企业的独特物流需求。广泛使用的两步浮动集水区（2SFCA）方法在农村的应用受到限制，因为它依赖于固定的集水区和以人口为基础的需求加权，这错误地反映了实际的旅行条件，忽视了行业的具体要求。为了解决这些差距，我们提出了一种改进的最近邻2SFCA （NN-2SFCA）方法，该方法结合了三个关键创新：(1)基于网络的旅行时间，而不是欧几里得距离，(2)数据驱动的动态最近邻搜索，以自适应确定服务范围；(3)基于企业注册资本的需求加权，以反映产业规模，而不是人口分布。应用于中国云南省，结果显示出严重的不平等：73%的高速公路服务集中在10%的乡镇，呈现出明显的核心-边缘格局。存在显著的部门差异，旅游业的可达性最差。该研究为乡村振兴战略下的资源优化配置提供了可操作的见解，并为类似背景下的可达性研究提供了可转移的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Does free travel for women in public transportation make them more inclusive? - An investigation of gendered subsidy initiative in India 女性免费乘坐公共交通工具会让她们更具包容性吗？-对印度性别补贴倡议的调查

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101713

Vastav Ratra , Rishi Kumar

The rapid urbanization of developing countries has yet to translate into improved socio-economic status of women. Notably, female mobility within urban areas remains low and non-inclusive public spaces limit the pool of accessible opportunities. This paper studies whether public policies aimed at lowering gender-specific barriers to mobility in Delhi, the capital city of India, have translated into improved mobility outcomes for women. Starting in October 2019, the Delhi Government made all public bus rides free for women and augmented security by deploying over 11,000 marshalls on buses. First, we try to understand the gender differences in travel for Delhi from the Time Use in India Survey 2019. Subsequently, we used a difference-in-differences design over a matched sample of women from the same survey and showed that the policies changed women's travel behaviour. They were 6.4 percentage points more likely to commute after sunset and were less likely to co-travel.

发展中国家的迅速城市化尚未转化为妇女社会经济地位的提高。值得注意的是，女性在城市地区的流动性仍然很低，非包容性的公共空间限制了可获得的机会。本文研究了印度首都德里旨在降低性别流动障碍的公共政策是否已经转化为改善妇女流动的结果。从2019年10月开始，德里政府对女性免费乘坐所有公共汽车，并在公共汽车上部署了1.1万多名警察，加强了安全。首先，我们试图从2019年印度时间使用调查中了解德里旅行的性别差异。随后，我们对来自同一调查的匹配女性样本使用了差异中的差异设计，结果表明这些政策改变了女性的旅行行为。他们在日落后通勤的可能性要高出6.4个百分点，而且不太可能与人同行。

引用次数: 0