Research in Transportation Economics最新文献_第7页

Crowdshipping preferences among public transit riders: Insights from Stockholm, Sweden 公共交通乘客的众包偏好：来自瑞典斯德哥尔摩的见解

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101635

Qian Wang, Michele D. Simoni

Crowdshipping has grown in popularity as a sharing economy model, but ensuring its sustainability remains a challenge. This study explores how public transit riders can be engaged in crowdshipping services to avoid generating additional motorized traffic. The propensity of public transit users to participate in crowdshipping and their responses to alternative task attributes are explored through an in-person survey conducted at selected subway stations in Stockholm. The influence of different socio-demographic factors and trip features on the propensity for participation is examined using statistical analysis and regression models. To quantify the trade-offs among required detours, compensation, and parcel weight when accepting crowdshipping tasks, alternative discrete choice models are investigated. The results reveal that factors such as age, employment, and income, along with trip characteristics, significantly affect participation propensity. The estimated willingness to work as a crowdshipper aligns with previous studies showing that age and income level were important factors. A latent class model further reveals a clear division between two groups: one younger, lower income group with higher willingness to work, and another older, higher-income group with lower willingness. As a result, dedicated strategies need to be considered by future crowdshipping service providers and policymakers.

众筹作为一种共享经济模式越来越受欢迎，但确保其可持续性仍然是一个挑战。本研究探讨了公共交通乘客如何参与众包服务，以避免产生额外的机动交通。通过在斯德哥尔摩选定的地铁站进行的面对面调查，探讨了公共交通用户参与众包的倾向以及他们对替代任务属性的反应。利用统计分析和回归模型考察了不同社会人口因素和旅行特征对参与倾向的影响。为了量化在接受众包任务时所需的弯路、补偿和包裹重量之间的权衡，研究了可选的离散选择模型。结果表明，年龄、就业、收入等因素以及出行特征对参与倾向有显著影响。据估计，作为众包商的意愿与之前的研究一致，表明年龄和收入水平是重要因素。潜在阶级模型进一步揭示了两个群体之间的明确划分：一个是年轻的、收入较低的、工作意愿较高的群体，另一个是年龄较大的、收入较高的、工作意愿较低的群体。因此，未来的众包服务提供商和政策制定者需要考虑专门的策略。

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引用次数: 0

Digitally enabled collaborative governance for sustaining bus reforms on the EDSA Busway in Metro Manila 马尼拉大都会EDSA公交道的数字化协同治理以维持公交改革

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101633

Noriel Christopher C. Tiglao , Erris Sanciangco , Niki Jon Tolentino

The Epifanio de los Santos Avenue or EDSA is a major arterial road in Metro Manila, Philippines which connects several Central Business Districts (CBDs) and major shopping malls of the metropolis with an average daily vehicle traffic reaching more than 400,000 plying its 23.8-km stretch. EDSA serves as a major public transport corridor due to the alignment of other mass transit systems. Over the years, serious attempts were made to increase the quality of bus services, but these were not sustained. In 2021, the city bus routes passing along EDSA were revamped and around 150 bus operators were consolidated into two consortia to operate the EDSA Busway during the COVID-19 pandemic. Originally intended to provide an augmentation service to the EDSA-MRT3 which was undergoing repairs along with passenger capacity restrictions to curb the spread of the virus, the government is trying to improve bus operations and infrastructure yet again. This paper describes the collaborative digital twin model, giving a detailed explanation of its development, components, and validation process, providing an analytical tool to improve governance and operations for the EDSA Busway.

Epifanio de los Santos大道（EDSA）是菲律宾马尼拉大都会的一条主干道，连接了大都市的几个中央商务区（CBDs）和主要购物中心，其23.8公里长的路段平均每天的车辆流量超过40万辆。由于与其他公共交通系统保持一致，EDSA成为主要的公共交通走廊。多年来，为提高公共汽车服务质量作出了认真的努力，但这些努力并没有持续下去。2021年，经过EDSA的城市公交路线进行了改造，约150家公交运营商被合并为两个财团，在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间运营EDSA公交道。政府原本打算为正在进行维修的EDSA-MRT3提供增强服务，同时限制乘客容量以遏制病毒的传播，现在政府正试图再次改善公交车运营和基础设施。本文描述了协作数字孪生模型，详细解释了其开发、组成和验证过程，为改进EDSA母线槽的治理和运营提供了分析工具。

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引用次数: 0

How can long-distance battery-powered container ships stack up? A speculative Asia-Europe illustration 电池驱动的长途集装箱船如何堆积起来？一个推测性的亚欧图解

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101636

Anthony Wiskich

Are batteries too costly and insufficiently energy-dense for long-distance shipping? We consider a container ship on a round trip between Asia and Europe under two speculative assumptions. First, in addition to a battery-on-container-ship (“on-ship”) approach, we study an “off-ship” concept where a dedicated battery vessel can power the ship en route. Second, we allow (dis)connection of battery vessels and charging at sea (stops). We describe an economic model that optimises ship speed, number of sea stops, battery capacities and battery vessel adoption for a hybrid (fuel/battery) container ship. Our main insights: (i) the off-ship approach allows greater flexibility and partial electrification at higher battery costs, (ii) optimal speeds increase and vary depending on the route segment with battery-powered propulsion, and (iii) battery uptake is more sensitive to battery costs than energy density. We hope these insights promote research into the technical feasibility of the off-ship approach.

对于长途运输来说，电池是否过于昂贵且能量密度不够？我们在两个推测的假设下考虑一艘往返于亚洲和欧洲之间的集装箱船。首先，除了集装箱船上的电池（“船上”）方法外，我们还研究了“船外”概念，即专用电池船可以在途中为船舶供电。第二，我们允许电池船（断开）连接和海上充电（停止）。我们描述了一个经济模型，该模型优化了混合动力（燃料/电池）集装箱船的航速、停靠次数、电池容量和电池船的采用。我们的主要见解是：(1)船外方法允许更大的灵活性和更高电池成本的部分电气化；(2)最佳速度的增加和变化取决于电池驱动推进的路线段；(3)电池吸收对电池成本比能量密度更敏感。我们希望这些见解能够促进对船外方法技术可行性的研究。

引用次数: 0

The monetary injury risk value of a crashed vehicle: a gender driving analysis 车祸的货币伤害风险值：性别驾驶分析

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101631

Luis Cespedes , Miguel Santolino , Mercedes Ayuso

The bodily injury severity of a vehicle involved in a crash has traditionally been defined in literature as the one associated with the most serious injured occupant and, therefore, excluding from the analysis the injured victims other than the most serious one. In this study, we propose an aggregate injury severity indicator for a crashed vehicle, based on the alternative metrics used in road safety research to calculate the monetary value of the change in risk of death and injury for each person in the vehicle. The main advantage of our indicator is that, by projecting the different qualitative levels of injury severity into monetary values, it allows aggregating the injury severity levels sustained by all occupants of a vehicle into a single value. We analyse the effect of the gender of the driver and its interaction with other risk factors on the expected monetary value of the injury risk of the vehicle. We found evidence of gender differences in driving, consistent with ‘couple driving behaviour’, where a man is more likely to be the driver when a woman (presumably the couple) is also in the vehicle. When the driver was a woman, the expected monetary value of the injury risk was on average reduced by 22 % for the occupants of the vehicle, and by 34 % for the passengers, i.e. excluding the driver's injuries. The reduction of the monetary value of the injury risk of passengers was higher for young female drivers than for old ones, with young-older female drivers (aged 66–74 years) being riskier for occupants than the young-older male drivers. In conclusion, analysing the gender differences in the aggregate expected injury severity for all occupants of the vehicle provides road safety policy makers with a better approximation of the injury severity resulting from motor vehicle crashes.

传统上，在文献中，涉及碰撞的车辆的身体伤害严重程度被定义为与受伤最严重的乘员相关的伤害严重程度，因此，从分析中排除了除最严重的受害者以外的受伤受害者。在这项研究中，我们基于道路安全研究中使用的替代指标，提出了碰撞车辆的总伤害严重程度指标，以计算车辆中每个人的死亡和受伤风险变化的货币价值。我们的指标的主要优点是，通过将不同的伤害严重程度的定性水平投射到货币价值中，它可以将车辆中所有乘员所遭受的伤害严重程度汇总到一个单一的值中。我们分析了驾驶员的性别及其与其他风险因素的相互作用对车辆伤害风险的预期货币价值的影响。我们发现了驾驶中存在性别差异的证据，这与“夫妻驾驶行为”是一致的，即当女性（大概是夫妻）也在车里时，男性更有可能是司机。当司机是女性时，车内人员受伤风险的预期货币价值平均降低了22%，乘客的预期货币价值平均降低了34%，即不包括司机的伤害。与老年司机相比，年轻女性司机对乘客伤害风险的货币价值降低更高，年龄在66-74岁之间的年轻女性司机比年龄在年轻男性司机对乘客的风险更高。总之，分析车辆中所有乘员的总体预期伤害严重程度的性别差异，为道路安全政策制定者提供了一个更好的近似机动车辆碰撞造成的伤害严重程度。

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引用次数: 0

Emerging economic geography of urban restaurants as freight generators: Logistics policy implications for managing dark kitchens and food trucks 城市餐馆作为货运发电机的新兴经济地理：管理黑暗厨房和食品卡车的物流政策含义

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101627

Suprava Mishra , Agnivesh Pani , Ivan Sanchez-Diaz , Heleen Buldeo Rai , Ankit Gupta

The rapid rise of app-based food delivery platforms has redefined how restaurants shape urban space. However, little is known about how these evolving restaurant types cluster and interact with urban land use. Using spatial analysis involving Ripley's-

K

and Moran's-

I

and predictive models involving decision trees, random forest, and multinomial logit models, this study attempts to explain the location choices of restaurants based on their relative distance to the city centre, rent, population density, and night-time light (NTL) intensity. Analysis results reveal that dark kitchens exhibit the tightest clustering, often in low-rent, high-density zones, while in-person dining is concentrated in high-rent, high-NTL areas. Among the models tested, random forest outperformed decision trees and multinomial logit models in predicting restaurant types, with night-time light emerging as the strongest spatial predictor. The clustering patterns observed in emerging urban restaurant types differ significantly from traditional brick-and-mortar establishments; study findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive freight planning and zoning policies to address the growing logistical footprint of digitally mediated food establishments. While based in Indian cities, the framework and insights of this study are transferable to other global contexts where on-demand food delivery and mixed-use zoning intersect in urban areas.

基于app的外卖平台的迅速崛起重新定义了餐馆如何塑造城市空间。然而，人们对这些不断发展的餐馆类型是如何聚集在一起并与城市土地利用相互作用的知之甚少。利用Ripley’s- k和Moran’s- i空间分析和决策树、随机森林和多项logit模型的预测模型，本研究试图根据餐馆与市中心的相对距离、租金、人口密度和夜间灯光强度来解释餐馆的选址选择。分析结果显示，暗厨房的聚集性最紧密，通常在低租金、高密度的区域，而面对面用餐则集中在高租金、高ntl的区域。在测试的模型中，随机森林在预测餐厅类型方面优于决策树和多项logit模型，其中夜间灯光成为最强的空间预测器。新兴城市餐厅类型的聚类模式与传统实体餐厅有显著差异；研究结果强调，迫切需要制定适应性货运规划和分区政策，以解决数字媒介食品企业日益增长的物流足迹。虽然基于印度城市，但本研究的框架和见解可转移到其他全球背景下，即按需食品配送和混合用途分区在城市地区交叉。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing AI-based eco-driving solutions for reducing GHG emissions in green transportation systems 评估基于人工智能的生态驾驶解决方案，以减少绿色交通系统中的温室气体排放

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101632

Rakan Alyamani , Yasir Ahmed Solangi , Muddesar Iqbal , Dhafer Almakhles , Cosimo Magazzino

The transportation sector in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driven by the country's heavy reliance on oil and fossil fuels. Transitioning to a green and sustainable transport system is critical for reducing emissions and aligning with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 goals of diversifying its economy and promoting environmental sustainability. Thus, this research examined the adoption of a green sustainable transport system to reduce GHG emissions and reduce dependence on fossil fuels for sustainable development in the KSA. The study evaluates various factors and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based eco-driving solutions to systematically implement green transportation systems. In this study, the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is applied to evaluate the five factors and eighteen sub-factors crucial for developing a green transportation system in the country. Next, the Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) method is used to prioritize the most significant AI-based eco-driving solutions for the implementation of smart and green transportation in KSA. The findings of the FAHP show that environmental impact (33 %) is the most crucial factor, followed by regulatory compliance (21.3 %) and economic viability (16.9 %). The FTOPSIS indicates that the smart navigation system (CC_i = 0.682) is the most critical AI-based eco-driving solution because this can help reduce GHG emissions and increase the efficiency of traffic regulation in the country. The electric and hybrid vehicle integration (CC_i = 0.585) and carbon footprint tracking systems (CC_i = 0.355) are the next most significant solutions. This study is helpful in reducing GHG emissions, supporting sustainable development, and guiding policymakers toward effective green transport initiatives.

沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）严重依赖石油和化石燃料，交通运输部门是温室气体（GHG）排放的主要来源。过渡到绿色和可持续的交通系统对于减少排放和符合沙特阿拉伯2030年愿景的目标至关重要，该目标旨在实现经济多元化和促进环境可持续性。因此，本研究探讨了在沙特阿拉伯采用绿色可持续交通系统以减少温室气体排放和减少对化石燃料的依赖以实现可持续发展。该研究评估了各种因素和基于人工智能（AI）的生态驾驶解决方案，以系统地实施绿色交通系统。本研究采用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）对我国发展绿色交通系统的5个关键因素和18个子因素进行了评价。接下来，使用模糊理想解决方案相似度偏好排序技术（FTOPSIS）方法对最重要的基于人工智能的生态驾驶解决方案进行优先排序，以实现KSA的智能和绿色交通。FAHP的研究结果显示，环境影响（33%）是最关键的因素，其次是法规遵从（21.3%）和经济可行性（16.9%）。FTOPSIS表明，智能导航系统（CCi = 0.682）是最关键的基于人工智能的生态驾驶解决方案，因为这有助于减少温室气体排放，提高该国的交通管制效率。电动和混合动力汽车集成（CCi = 0.585）和碳足迹跟踪系统（CCi = 0.355）是第二重要的解决方案。这项研究有助于减少温室气体排放，支持可持续发展，并指导决策者采取有效的绿色交通举措。

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引用次数: 0

Achieving collaboration between local and regional governments aiming to stagger school starting hours 实现地方和地区政府之间的合作，以错开上课时间为目标

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101629

Eva-Lena Eriksson , Helene Lidestam , Lena Winslott Hiselius

The peak-hour travel demand is the most important operational cost driver for public transport in Sweden. Implementing staggered school starting hours as a measure to spread out the travel demand has proven to be challenging. This study focuses on overcoming barriers to collaboration between public transport authorities, municipalities, and schools concerning school transport planning and school operations scheduling in order to reduce public transport costs. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with individuals with experience in introducing staggered school starting hours. The Institutional Collective Action (ICA) framework was utilised to identify the barriers to collaboration. The paper discusses methods for overcoming these barriers and concludes with actions such as involving all stakeholders in the problem formulation, increasing knowledge of stakeholders’ operations and planning procedures, providing incentives for all actors, and safeguarding the autonomy of each actor. Insights that could also be applied to collaboration with other actors, e.g., workplaces, aiming to stagger commuter peak-hour demand. The study advances the empirical application of the ICA framework by applying it in a Swedish context, in the field of transport planning, and with stakeholders who do not perceive the issue at hand as a problem and lack commitment to finding a joint solution.

高峰时段的出行需求是瑞典公共交通最重要的运营成本驱动因素。事实证明，将错开上课时间作为分散出行需求的一项措施具有挑战性。本研究的重点是克服公共交通当局、市政当局和学校之间在学校交通规划和学校运营调度方面的合作障碍，以降低公共交通成本。数据是通过半结构化访谈收集的，访谈对象是具有引入错开上课时间经验的个人。机构集体行动（ICA）框架被用来确定合作的障碍。本文讨论了克服这些障碍的方法，并总结了让所有利益相关者参与问题制定、增加对利益相关者运作和规划程序的了解、为所有行为者提供激励以及维护每个行为者的自主权等行动。这些见解也可以应用于与其他参与者的合作，例如，工作场所，旨在错开通勤高峰时段的需求。该研究推进了ICA框架的实证应用，将其应用于瑞典的交通规划领域，以及不认为手头的问题是一个问题，缺乏寻找共同解决方案的承诺的利益相关者。

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引用次数: 0

Mobile communication technology and consumer demand: Empirical evidence of China's automobile industry 移动通信技术与消费者需求：中国汽车产业的实证证据

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101630

Panwei Xiang , Lianren Wu , Muhua Wei , Jiayin Qi

With the extensive adoption of electrification technology in China's new energy vehicle market, traditional automakers are accelerating their transition towards electrification, thereby reshaping the competitive landscape. Meanwhile, mobile communication technology, which serves as the foundation of networking and intelligent development, not only facilitates the rapid emergence of new automotive manufacturers but also introduces novel opportunities and challenges to the new energy vehicle industry. This study employs a discrete choice model to empirically analyze how network configuration impacts the sales of new energy vehicles, aiming to explore how network connectivity empowers these vehicles in the post-subsidy era. The findings demonstrate that: (1) The mobile network configuration can positively affect the market share of new energy vehicle products, among which consumer satisfaction plays a partial mediating role. (2) From the perspective of specific network configuration, the impact on automotive market share is mainly driven by the role of 4G network, while the impact of 4G to 5G network upgrade is a gradual process. (3) For domestic car brands and car brands with relatively low prices, network integration plays a more obvious role in improving the car market share.

随着电气化技术在中国新能源汽车市场的广泛应用，传统汽车制造商正在加速向电气化转型，从而重塑竞争格局。同时，移动通信技术作为物联网和智能化发展的基础，不仅促进了新型汽车厂商的快速涌现，也给新能源汽车产业带来了新的机遇和挑战。本研究采用离散选择模型实证分析网络配置对新能源汽车销量的影响，旨在探讨后补贴时代网络连接如何赋能新能源汽车。研究结果表明：(1)移动网络配置对新能源汽车产品的市场份额有正向影响，其中消费者满意度起部分中介作用。(2)从具体网络配置来看，对汽车市场份额的影响主要由4G网络的作用驱动，而4G向5G网络升级的影响是一个渐进的过程。(3)对于国产汽车品牌和价格相对较低的汽车品牌而言，网络整合对提高汽车市场占有率的作用更为明显。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating gasoline demand and electric vehicle adoption: A spatial model for Brazil 估计汽油需求和电动汽车的采用：巴西的空间模型

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101623

Sergio Prolo , Andrea Pellegrini , Werner Kraus Junior , Alexandre Hering Coelho , John M. Rose

We investigate gasoline demand growth in Brazil over a 16-year period, assessing its response to electric vehicle (EV) adoption and taxation measures. Using a spatial-based econometric model with data from 2006 to 2021 across all Brazilian states, we observe that annual gasoline sales nearly doubled from 2006 to 2014, reaching 0.22 m³ per capita, and then stabilized. Our model reveals that the EV motorization rate negatively impacts gasoline demand, with an elasticity of −0.126, compared to 0.609 for internal combustion engine vehicles. The results show that aggressive fuel taxation alone is insufficient to achieve long-term reductions in demand. However, fleet electrification is more effective, potentially reducing per capita gasoline consumption by 90% between 2021 and 2034 when it is strongly incentivized. A combined approach integrating taxation and electrification offers the most efficient pathway for reducing demand while generating revenue for public investment in Brazil’s transition to a carbon-free transportation sector.

我们调查了巴西16年来的汽油需求增长，评估了其对电动汽车（EV）采用和税收措施的反应。我们使用基于空间的计量经济模型，分析了2006年至2021年巴西各州的数据，发现从2006年到2014年，巴西的汽油年销量几乎翻了一番，达到人均0.22立方米，之后趋于稳定。我们的模型显示，电动汽车机动化率对汽油需求的影响为负，弹性系数为- 0.126，而内燃机汽车的弹性系数为0.609。研究结果表明，仅靠征收高额燃油税不足以实现需求的长期减少。然而，车队电气化更有效，在2021年至2034年期间，如果得到强有力的激励，人均汽油消耗量可能会减少90%。在巴西向无碳交通部门转型的过程中，税收和电气化相结合的方法为减少需求，同时为公共投资创造收入提供了最有效的途径。

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引用次数: 0

The evolution of consumer preferences in last-mile delivery methods and the impact on urban logistics—A simulation study in the Rotterdam-The Hague region 最后一英里配送方式中消费者偏好的演变及其对城市物流的影响——以鹿特丹-海牙地区为例的模拟研究

IF 3.4 3区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Research in Transportation Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101624

J.E. van Vliet , M.A. de Bok , B. Atasoy , G. Homem de Almeida Correia

The growing demand for parcel delivery contributes to traffic congestion, high emissions, and rising costs of freight logistics, particularly in urban areas. To address these issues, new and sustainable last-mile delivery methods must be implemented. However, estimating the impact of different logistics systems is complex, as it depends heavily on consumer adoption of these new delivery methods.

This paper presents a simulation model that captures and explores the interconnections between multiple last-mile delivery methods and corresponding consumer preferences. Two key factors affecting consumer preferences are simulated: (1) consumers’ response to the performance and availability of delivery methods, and (2) the sharing of knowledge through word of mouth and familiarisation. System dynamics is applied at the aggregate level to simulate the evolution of consumer preferences for last-mile delivery across multiple methods. At the disaggregate level, an agent-based model simulates the operational performance of these delivery methods, which in turn influences consumer preferences in the system dynamics model. This integrated approach allows for the observation of the evolving interaction between urban logistics supply and demand, providing key performance indicators on consumer preferences and the delivery method operations at consecutive time points.

The developed simulation model is applied to a case study in the Rotterdam-The Hague region, a highly urbanised region in The Netherlands. Results show that consumer preferences strongly depend on the carriers’ ability to fulfil the demand. The dynamic interaction between supply and demand creates a reinforcing feedback loop, where the adaptability of carriers is crucial for the long-term success of a delivery method. Additionally, the spatial results reveal that there are zonal differences in the performance of the delivery methods. Further findings indicate that, while total vehicle kilometres and CO₂ emissions will rise due to increasing parcel demand in all scenarios, the average number of van kilometres and CO₂ emissions per parcel will decrease as demand grows.

日益增长的包裹递送需求导致交通拥堵、高排放和货运物流成本上升，尤其是在城市地区。为了解决这些问题，必须实施新的、可持续的最后一英里交付方法。然而，估计不同物流系统的影响是复杂的，因为它在很大程度上取决于消费者对这些新的交付方式的采用。本文提出了一个仿真模型，该模型捕捉并探索了多种最后一英里交付方式和相应的消费者偏好之间的相互联系。本文模拟了影响消费者偏好的两个关键因素：(1)消费者对交付方式的性能和可用性的反应；(2)通过口碑和熟悉来分享知识。系统动力学应用于聚合层，模拟了消费者在多种方式下对最后一英里交付的偏好演变。在分解层，基于代理的模型模拟这些交付方法的操作性能，这反过来影响系统动力学模型中的消费者偏好。这种综合方法允许观察城市物流供需之间不断发展的相互作用，提供关于消费者偏好和连续时间点交付方法操作的关键绩效指标。开发的模拟模型应用于荷兰高度城市化地区鹿特丹-海牙地区的案例研究。结果表明，消费者的偏好强烈依赖于运营商满足需求的能力。供需之间的动态互动创造了一个强化的反馈循环，其中运营商的适应性对于交付方法的长期成功至关重要。此外，空间结果表明，在交付方式的性能存在区域差异。进一步的研究结果表明，虽然在所有情况下，由于包裹需求的增加，车辆总公里数和二氧化碳排放量将增加，但随着需求的增长，每个包裹的平均面包车公里数和二氧化碳排放量将减少。

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引用次数: 0